Analysis The Rebuild Of Essendon And North Melbourne And Their Future Prospects

[Macca18]

Bombers could still win 10 games this year.

I don't think so.

We will win 5 or 6 games this year, maximum. A distance from the wooden spoon but still bottom 4.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I don't think so.

We will win 5 or 6 games this year, maximum. A distance from the wooden spoon but still bottom 4.

I'm not sure you're destined for the bottom four.

 

[Macca18]

I'm not sure you're destined for the bottom four.

We will go 1-1 with North this year (I can see their first win of the year coming against us but perhaps us winning the return bout).

And might sneak a couple of wins against the likes of GWS (Marvel), Adelaide (Marvel), Fremantle (Marvel), Sydney (Marvel) or Collingwood (MCG) again later in the season.

We won't be beating much else. Bottom 4.

 

[Yoda_]

So another mid-table finish. Not saying that to have a go at you, but that is where we have been for 20 years.

Not good enough for a flag. Too good for decent draft picks.

Now don't get me wrong; this year sucks dogs' balls. Would much rather get a few wins; hell a loss under 20 points would be nice at this stage.

The only, and I mean only consolation is that we will get a good pick this year, and most likely next year too. Painful, but being mired in 20 years of mediocrity has to end for the long term health of the club.

Difference is, we will have gone past the guys we planned around and decided on ones willing to build up the club around.

Stupidity was hoping Daniher, Fantasia were going to return to there best at EFC. We were scuppered badly by them. Saad is just a campaigner


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[00Stinger]

Not sure why people keeps saying that Essendon need a rebuild tbh

Last year they lost Fantasia and Daniher who never played anyway and Saad who would be the most unaccountable backman to ever play the game

Their list isn't/wasn't any where near as bad as a few other teams they just needed some tinkering to be done to their list and the draft picks from the above 3 are an absolute boost

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Not sure why people keeps saying that Essendon need a rebuild tbh

Last year they lost Fantasia and Daniher who never played anyway and Saad who would be the most unaccountable backman to ever play the game

Their list isn't/wasn't any where near as bad as a few other teams they just needed some tinkering to be done to their list and the draft picks from the above 3 are an absolute boost

Nah. A lot of pieces have surprisingly fallen into place quickly. Like Laverde, Parish, Ham, Cox, Perkins, Hind, Hooker and Stringer in various was. Ultimately had De Goey and Adam been out there we are 1 and 5. Still a way to go.

 

[Outtatym]

Dont think ive seen odds like this for a long time.

View attachment 1112127

Maybe I'm just bias (and/or delusional) but if the game goes ahead in Tassy I reckon $19 is nuts.

 

[RandB]

Maybe I'm just bias (and/or delusional) but if the game goes ahead in Tassy I reckon $19 is nuts.

Even if it is played in Melbourne it is still nuts. 2 horse race, anything could happen. Players are human, sometimes they drop off and have a bad one. Injuries, umpiring all factors.

North have travelled and self ISO but still.

Dees rightly favourites but closer to $1.15 I reckon.

 

[Ambrosia]

Dons approach to list management has been pretty interesting. Kind of went the Hawthorn route, bringing in the likes of Shiel & Smith and paying overs. IMO things could have been far worse then they are if they continued that route, however...

Despite their players wanting out, they've managed to really make the best out of the situation through AFL's compensation system & the fact Carlton paid overs for Saad. As bad as the supp saga was, it netted them McGrath.

Saad, Daniher & The Supp Saga = Perkins, Cox & McGrath.

For what it's worth, I think they're a year or so ahead of Norths rebuild. The 3 first round picks in 2020 is difficult for any side to compete against, but good on them.

Shiel was the only over pay. Smith falls in with the Stringer and Saad deals.

Every club in the league no matter what stage of development they’re in has a need for proven 24 year olds. Sure the overall list build didn’t work but it’s hard to say those trades were anything but a success.

Essendon’s biggest issue is overrating their list and chasing short term success. We just continually shoot ourselves in the foot.

 

[Ambrosia]

Not sure why people keeps saying that Essendon need a rebuild tbh

Last year they lost Fantasia and Daniher who never played anyway and Saad who would be the most unaccountable backman to ever play the game

Their list isn't/wasn't any where near as bad as a few other teams they just needed some tinkering to be done to their list and the draft picks from the above 3 are an absolute boost

Saad unaccountable? At Essendon he played the on the best small forward every week.

Also lost McKenna who had a terrible 2020 but was previously a very good player for us.

 

[Dave]

Not quite as lopsided but Essendon vs Geelong in 2011 was $1.05 to $7 and Essendon won. Geelong were 13-0 and Essendon had lost the last 5 in a row, and hadn't beaten Geelong since 2005 at that point.

From memory one punter dropped a million on Geelong......

 

[Engimal v3]

Dont think ive seen odds like this for a long time.

View attachment 1112127

I think you mean "odds this juicy"

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Essendon are fine honestly, not a false dawn this time. Good batch of young and talented kids, good batch of experienced heads to see them through who will be around for a bit longer yet. Will make a finals series or two in the next five years, and will contend after that.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Difference is, we will have gone past the guys we planned around and decided on ones willing to build up the club around.

Stupidity was hoping Daniher, Fantasia were going to return to there best at EFC. We were scuppered badly by them. Saad is just a campaigner


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It sucks that Saad went to Carlton but we can’t fault him while he was with us. He played fantastic football for three years and performed whether the side was flying or flailing. He was a poster child for fulfilling his end of a bargain, contract-wise.

And then *, we got a top 10 pick for him, which is still a bit of a struggle to believe and absolutely perfect for us with where the list is at.

Sometimes all’s well that ends well.

 

[Great8]

Saad unaccountable? At Essendon he played the on the best small forward every week.

Apart from the time he refused to play on Charlie Cameron and spat the dummy I presume?

 

[Ambrosia]

Apart from the time he refused to play on Charlie Cameron and spat the dummy I presume?

Theres a difference between complaining about your role in the side and being unaccountable

 

[LeverPuller]

Dons still want for some pieces - in particular I think they’d love a developmental inside bull - but they’re nowhere near as bad as I thought in terms of build. Going to be fascinating to see what they do with Cox - incredible build and oozes talent but at risk of being forced into a KPP role due to build rather than being allowed to flourish on a wing or off half back.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Maybe I'm just bias (and/or delusional) but if the game goes ahead in Tassy I reckon $19 is nuts.

The odds are that crazy that I reckon even Shaq might put a Pineapple on North

 

[Blackas87]

Dons approach to list management has been pretty interesting. Kind of went the Hawthorn route, bringing in the likes of Shiel & Smith and paying overs. IMO things could have been far worse then they are if they continued that route, however...

Despite their players wanting out, they've managed to really make the best out of the situation through AFL's compensation system & the fact Carlton paid overs for Saad. As bad as the supp saga was, it netted them McGrath.

Saad, Daniher & The Supp Saga = Perkins, Cox & McGrath.

For what it's worth, I think they're a year or so ahead of Norths rebuild. The 3 first round picks in 2020 is difficult for any side to compete against, but good on them.

North basically got Jaiden Stephenson for Ben Brown, 2017 pick 6 rising star winner is comparable to Essendon getting pick 9 (Charlie Perkins) for Daniher.

Cox was also Essendon’s original pick selection 8, they took Zach Reid with the pick they got from Carlton for Saad.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Assuming North get pick 1, what would be an acceptable way to split it into two or more picks?

Is a rebuilding club better off with pick 1 on its own or with two bites of the cherry later in the top 10?

For example, is pick 1 more appealing than picks 5 and 6? Or vice versa?

 

[Blackas87]

Assuming North get pick 1, what would be an acceptable way to split it into two or more picks?

Is a rebuilding club better off with pick 1 on its own or with two bites of the cherry later in the top 10?

For example, is pick 1 more appealing than picks 5 and 6? Or vice versa?

Depends if there’s a standout player like a Matt Rowell in the draft or not. But you should be drafting quality players anywhere in the top 10 and getting two is better than one with 18 spots on the field.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Essendon are fine honestly, not a false dawn this time. Good batch of young and talented kids, good batch of experienced heads to see them through who will be around for a bit longer yet. Will make a finals series or two in the next five years, and will contend after that.

I don't think they're bottoming out like North. But have they done enough early drafting to start thinking about finals?

Look at their selections in the first and second rounds going back to encompass players who'll be 25 or younger at the end of this year.

2014: Langford (#17), Laverde (#20)
2015: Parish (#5), Francis (#6), Morgan (#29), Redman (#30)
2016: McGrath (#1), Ridley (#22), Begley (#31)
2017: nothing early - picked up Zerk-Thatcher (#66) and Guelfi (#76)
2018: Mosquito (#38)
2019: Jones (#30), Bryan (#38)
2020: Cox (#8), Perkins (#9), Reid (#10)

In 2021 they've got their first-rounder, likely something 4-8, but then nothing until the third round.

Even if we allow for maximum optimism with Cox, Perkins and Reid, I'm not sure they've had enough scoops of ice cream there.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Depends if there’s a standout player like a Matt Rowell in the draft or not. But you should be drafting quality players anywhere in the top 10 and getting two is better than one with 18 spots on the field.

Yet clubs are reluctant to split those early picks.

I tend to think that if you're rebuilding, you want as many picks in the top 30-40 as possible. Obviously, the earlier, the better.

 

[Blackas87]

Yet clubs are reluctant to split those early picks.

I tend to think that if you're rebuilding, you want as many picks in the top 30-40 as possible. Obviously, the earlier, the better.

Agree but there would have to be a club with 2 picks willing to give them up, not always easy to find.

Clubs are also scared to trade away a pick that might land the next superstar.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Agree but there would have to be a club with 2 picks willing to give them up, not always easy to find.

Clubs are also scared to trade away a pick that might land the next superstar.

I reckon if you go back through the last 10 drafts and had a choice between the best player drafted in the top three (#1 pick) versus any two players drafted 6-15 (two picks somewhere in the top 10), it's not at all obvious that you're better off with just the one earlier pick. Of course, this assumes that you pick wisely with those selections.

Maybe clubs think #1 is a safe bet but again, that's not really the case either.