The Run Home - Finals?

[Val Keating]

Easy. If Geelong win all 3, and Hawthorn win 2.


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Geelong beats Hawthorn
Hawthorn beats Sydney
Collingwood beats Brisbane and Freo

You’re right. There’s a fair bit riding on Hawks V Swans. Having said that, there’s only 0.3 differential in % between North and Hawthorne at the moment.

 

[ferball]

We won’t beat Adelaide in Adelaide. We just can’t do it.

As for blaming the weather at then GC game. People do realize GC experienced exactly the same conditions as us??!! It’s not like we played in the rain while the GC had Western Queensland drought conditions when they had the ball!

If you want to blame anything blame Scotts. Developing a game style to beat the top teams, but can’t beat the s**t teams!!

The Gold Coast spent their pre season on the Gold Coast training in the wet and high humidity. North didn't.

And it was still a disgrace. Whoever won it shouldn't have been played. if it was some other team not us the AFGL would still be a joke for scheduling a game up there in cyclone season, seeing those conditions then not cancelling it.

I've played local footy up here on grounds like that - once. Then the league never did it ever again (after one game) because the conditions were s**t - people got injured and the ground was unusable for months afterward.

 

[goalieboy82]

The Gold Coast spent their pre season on the Gold Coast training in the wet and high humidity. North didn't.

And it was still a disgrace. Whoever won it shouldn't have been played. if it was some other team not us the AFGL would still be a joke for scheduling a game up there in cyclone season, seeing those conditions then not cancelling it.

I've played local footy up here on grounds like that - once. Then the league never did it ever again (after one game) because the conditions were s**t - people got injured and the ground was unusable for months afterward.

you are right. if it was someone else, they would have given each team 2 points.

 

[Engimal v3]

Can't see us making the 8. A lot has to go right, even if we win all our games.

 

[Moti]

If we select Wood this week, we don't make it. Simples.

We don't move the magnets enough and we desperately need to.

 

[Paganism mark II]

If we win our last 3 we finish on 14 wins, impossible to miss out. Remember that teams we are competing against play each other on the way home....Geelong v Hawthorn this week, Sydney v Hawthorn round 23 etc.
I can’t see Sydney making it....their next 2 are Melbourne at the MCG then Giants away. So if you grant them a win in round 23, still leaves them on 13 wins and a not very good %.
Unfortunately for North, Geelong will win their last 2 with easy games at home.
Amazing to think you could miss the 8 on 13 wins and a % around 110, but unfortunately we will if that’s what we end up.
Our only consolation is the Crows have nothing to play for, so that MIGHT help us.
But yeah as mentioned a few times in this thread, North in Adelaide usually ends up in disaster. But.....we’re due

 

[Mav]

The Gold Coast spent their pre season on the Gold Coast training in the wet and high humidity. North didn't.

this is irrelevant.

Should Gold Coast not play in Melbourne because Melbourne teams have been doing preseason in weather different to theirs?

And it was still a disgrace. Whoever won it shouldn't have been played. if it was some other team not us the AFGL would still be a joke for scheduling a game up there in cyclone season, seeing those conditions then not cancelling it.

I've played local footy up here on grounds like that - once. Then the league never did it ever again (after one game) because the conditions were s**t - people got injured and the ground was unusable for months afterward
.

Not arguing any of this.

 

[goalieboy82]

we end up in 5th now i think (and win the Grand Final against the Tigers*)
*what happens is a reverse of 1998 (Tigers are up at half time and we come back). yes i know it was the Crows that beat us but this is what i think is going to happen.

 

[naturally north]

If they had called it off then we would have got 2 points. Which at this stage of the season would still have us in 9th on 46 points.

I think we'll miss on %. It doesn't really concern me either way, I thought it interesting from a hurricane POV- those things don't normally sneak up on you.

 

[bungareepremiers06]

If we win our last 3 we finish on 14 wins, impossible to miss out. Remember that teams we are competing against play each other on the way home....Geelong v Hawthorn this week, Sydney v Hawthorn round 23 etc.
I can’t see Sydney making it....their next 2 are Melbourne at the MCG then Giants away. So if you grant them a win in round 23, still leaves them on 13 wins and a not very good %.
Unfortunately for North, Geelong will win their last 2 with easy games at home.
Amazing to think you could miss the 8 on 13 wins and a % around 110, but unfortunately we will if that’s what we end up.
Our only consolation is the Crows have nothing to play for, so that MIGHT help us.
But yeah as mentioned a few times in this thread, North in Adelaide usually ends up in disaster. But.....we’re due

It's actually not at all.

Rich 72
WC 64
Coll 60
GWS 58
Melb 56
Geel 56
Hawt 56
PA 56

NM 56
Syd 48

That scenario involves Swans losing all 3 games, Port beating WC at home, Geel beating Haw, WC beating Melb at home, Melb beating GWS in the last round. The rest of the results are basically clear favourites.

 

[Rooboys Rool]

Doesn't seem to matter what I do, every time I do the ladder predictor I keep on getting this:

 

[goalieboy82]

Doesn't seem to matter what I do, every time I do the ladder predictor I keep on getting this:

View attachment 538934

 

[showusyacunningt]

Winning in Adelaide will be potentially harder than winning a final.

I'd be very confident against Hawthorn, Melbourne or Geelong if Higgins, Waite and Jacobs are fit.

 

[sbdan]

Can't see us making the 8. A lot has to go right, even if we win all our games.

I'm hoping, but I'm not feeling it either. But then again, i have underestimated us all year.

 

[Paganism mark II]

It's actually not at all.

Rich 72
WC 64
Coll 60
GWS 58
Melb 56
Geel 56
Hawt 56
PA 56

NM 56
Syd 48

That scenario involves Swans losing all 3 games, Port beating WC at home, Geel beating Haw, WC beating Melb at home, Melb beating GWS in the last round. The rest of the results are basically clear favourites.

The loser of Collingwood v Port can only then win 14 games, as you have got here.
But what you’re forgetting is, Port have a 4% healthier percentage and Collingwood 7.
If North are to make it, then obviously our percentage will improve after 3 wins in a row, and depending on how big the margin is in that Collingwood v Port game, there’s will drop.
Our main objective is to really win the next 2, and being the last game of the year we’ll know exactly what we’d have to beat St Kilda by, assuming Collingwood beat Freo in WA.
Another thing....GWS are no certainty to finish the year with more than 1 win, they have Sydney then Dees at the G, so 14 wins gets us above them.
Hawks can very well lose 2 of 3, or conversely if they beat Geelong then Geelong is limited to 13 wins.
West Coast can also beat Port this week, so Port can also finish on 13.
So many more factors.
It would take an amazing sequence of results to see North miss on 14 wins

 

[Grogg]

Fun fact:

North Melbourne has not won *against Adelaide* in Adelaide since August 2003.

Currently on a 9 game losing streak in the city of churches.

Pray for a miracle

*Edit

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

Fun fact:

North Melbourne has not won in Adelaide since August 2003.

Currently on a 9 game losing streak in the city of churches.

Pray for a miracle.

Take motivation from the fact until last Richmond hadn’t won a final since The year Pyramids were built

 

[longyroos]

Fun fact:

North Melbourne has not won in Adelaide since August 2003.

Currently on a 9 game losing streak in the city of churches.

Pray for a miracle.

Richmond hadn't won a final (any final) since 2001 until 10 months ago. Doesn't mean anything. Having said that we could win in SA and then lose to St Kilda in round 23 by 60+ and the AFL have to rebuild Marvel stadium after I go all hulk smash on the joint.

 

[giantroo]

Fun fact:

North Melbourne has not won in Adelaide since August 2003.

Currently on a 9 game losing streak in the city of churches.

Pray for a miracle.

I'll tweet this out sometime next week. Must break this hoodoo.

 

[Grogg]

I'll tweet this out sometime next week. Must break this hoodoo.

To say we're due is an understatement.

 

[Gasometer]

Fun fact:

North Melbourne has not won in Adelaide since August 2003.

Currently on a 9 game losing streak in the city of churches.

Pray for a miracle.

Would have been Football Park?

Have we won anything at AO?

Anyway let’s get over the Woofs...we have had some very close finishes lately which are unnerving

 

[Paganism mark II]

This is the slowest Adelaide team we have met in a decade.
Definitely not the worst, but the slowest.

 

[Grogg]

Would have been Football Park?

Have we won anything at AO?

Anyway let’s get over the Woofs...we have had some very close finishes lately which are unnerving

Yep, Footy Park.

0 wins at AO in 4 matches

 

[Clarence2norton]

From what I can see our best bet is to win all three, which is a big enough ask as is, and for Hawthorn to drop the Geelong, and Sydney games.

If we don’t win all three I can’t see a realistic way for us to make it unfortunately.

 

[astrovic]

We've defeated Sydney in Sydney, Freo in Perth, knocked off West Coast, GWS (both in Hobart) and Hawthorn and racked up a bunch of other wins along the way. All things we've struggled with in recent years.

Plus apart from Melbourne, Port and the Pies, our losses have been hard fought, coulda shoulda affairs. We have genuinely been the "hard to beat" team that the song sings about.

We're currently debating whether we finished 4th or 10th or somewhere in between.

Methinks if we beat Adelaide in Adelaide, I'm gonna declare this season a success* and holster up for 2019 feeling pretty good about our prospects.


*Blah blah any season where we don't win the flag is a failure blah celebrating mediocrity blah blah blah...