Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[Underarm]

Royal Commission/Operation Heartland.

What were the findings and changes from that report that lead to Geelong winning in 2007?

 

[The 747]

What were the findings and changes from that report that lead to Geelong winning in 2007?

Don't bother asking that poster to substantiate their allegations, they won't.

 

[juss]

Look at the premiers since 07….

Yeh, that's not the correct way of looking at it. Sample size is most relevant the larger it is.

If you flip a coin 10 times, you could very well get 7 or 8 heads. The layman would say the coin is rigged. You wouldn't see 700-800 heads over 1000 flips , but equally you wouldn't see 500-500 heads and tails either.

It's the same selecting flag seasons, you need to make the sample LARGER not shorter to increase its relevance. Then see if the numbers are statically significant or if it can be accounted for by chance.

Opinions aren't more valid than what the data shows.

 

[Underarm]

Don't bother asking that poster to substantiate their allegations, they won't.

Not sure why, should be easy to answer.
"After the report in 2007 the AFL decided to give all Vic clubs an extra 10% salary cap, exclusive access to Victorian top recruits and all their home games at their home ground.

The effect was somehow immediate as months later Geelong used these advantages to break a 70 year drought".

 

[LoungeLizard]

Not sure why, should be easy to answer.
"After the report in 2007 the AFL decided to give all Vic clubs an extra 10% salary cap, exclusive access to Victorian top recruits and all their home games at their home ground.

The effect was somehow immediate as months later Geelong used these advantages to break a 70 year drought".

Don't forget, they also told Port to lose all home prelims thereafter or they would be banned from the league.

 

[RUNVS]

Yeh, that's not the correct way of looking at it. Sample size is most relevant the larger it is.

If you flip a coin 10 times, you could very well get 7 or 8 heads. The layman would say the coin is rigged. You wouldn't see 700-800 heads over 1000 flips , but equally you wouldn't see 500-500 heads and tails either.

It's the same selecting flag seasons, you need to make the sample LARGER not shorter to increase its relevance. Then see if the numbers are statically significant or if it can be accounted for by chance.

Opinions aren't more valid than what the data shows.

It can be. 1990 the competition was far from proffessional. 2007 is around about the time when the sport became fully professional, as in no player on any list needed a second job in order to survive. If you only include the fully professioanl era then somewhere in the mid 2000's is probably the right point to start.

 

[The 747]

It can be. 1990 the competition was far from proffessional. 2007 is around about the time when the sport became fully professional, as in no player on any list needed a second job in order to survive. If you only include the fully professioanl era then somewhere in the mid 2000's is probably the right point to start.

I think these years are a fair way out. 2007 is 16 years ago and long time after Wayne Carey was earning more than $1 million a season.

 

[Underarm]

It can be. 1990 the competition was far from proffessional. 2007 is around about the time when the sport became fully professional, as in no player on any list needed a second job in order to survive. If you only include the fully professioanl era then somewhere in the mid 2000's is probably the right point to start.

Fascinating. Could you point me to an article or some statistics to back this up and why it affects non Victorian clubs more?

 

[demondavey]

Why use such an arbitrary cut off time?

15 years?

 

[RUNVS]

I think these years are a fair way out. 2007 is 16 years ago and long time after Wayne Carey was earning more than $1 million a season.

True, but even in the mid 2000's rookies would often need to take on second jobs to support themselves. I remember it happening with Goldstein. These days that is not necessary.

 

[demondavey]

Fascinating. Could you point me to an article or some statistics to back this up and why it affects non Victorian clubs more?

Well statistics tell you that it’s been dominated by Vic premiers in that time.

 

[RUNVS]

Well statistics tell you that it’s been dominated by Vic premiers in that time.

Could you imagine the uproar if a Victorian club had only won the flag twice in 15 years? Yet because it has happened to non-Victorian clubs it is fine.

 

[The 747]

True, but even in the mid 2000's rookies would often need to take on second jobs to support themselves. I remember it happening with Goldstein. These days that is not necessary.

Rookie wages were not meant to be professional wages though. They are/were pretty low unless you play AFL games.

AFL being professional would be sometime in the 90s, not the 2000s.

What does this have to do with #VICBIAS though?

 

[Underarm]

15 years?

Did you go to the same SA school as mick500? It's been 16 seasons of Vic dominance.

Well statistics tell you that it’s been dominated by Vic premiers in that time.

If the link between professionalism in AFL and a Victorian resurgence is so obvious, it should be well documented.

 

[mick500]

Derwayne with the "noise of affirmation" in the port game again lol.

 

[kranky al]

Geelong are a team with proper home ground advantage dude, they are not a Melbourne team.

Melbourne teams 16
Non-Melbourne teams 18

Despite Melbourne teams making up 55% of the competition in that time.

Another Kranky stats special

Geelong play more games at the g in a year than most interstate clubs do in 5


Geelong this year - 6 games at the g

West coast - 1

Non Melbourne teams lol Geelong is a shot train ride from melbourne.

 

[RUNVS]

Rookie wages were not meant to be professional wages though. They are/were pretty low unless you play AFL games.

AFL being professional would be sometime in the 90s, not the 2000s.

What does this have to do with #VICBIAS though?

It is relevant because people are trying to use stats from 30 years ago to try and "prove" that the non-Victorian clubs are not disadvantaged, when in fact every stat from the modern era is saying differently. 15 years is more than enough to see a trend, just the Victorian fans are not interested in going deeper and finding out why.

 

[The 747]

Geelong play more games at the g in a year than most interstate clubs do in 5

Yes, we play two home games there a year because the AFL won't let us play 11 at home. This proves what point?

 

[The 747]

It is relevant because people are trying to use stats from 30 years ago to try and "prove" that the non-Victorian clubs are not disadvantaged, when in fact every stat from the modern era is saying differently. 15 years is more than enough to see a trend, just the Victorian fans are not interested in going deeper and finding out why.

OK so you are arguing that the game became professional in 2007 because that is the point at which the Victorian teams gained an ascendancy?

Carry on then, but this argument is utter bullshit. Interstate teams dominated the 2000s and the game was professional.

 

[demondavey]

Did you go to the same SA school as mick500? It's been 16 seasons of Vic dominance.

If the link between professionalism in AFL and a Victorian resurgence is so obvious, it should be well documented.

I am not discussing the professional aspect, I am simply saying that we’ve had total domination over a really good sample size for too long. The AFL needs to get real and move the GF away from the MCG on a rotation basis.

 

[RUNVS]

OK so you are arguing that the game became professional in 2007 because that is the point at which the Victorian teams gained an ascendancy?

Carry on then, but this argument is utter bullshit. Interstate teams dominated the 2000s and the game was professional.

Nope, arguing the game became professional in the mid 2000's when every player got a wage big enough to live off, a pretty standard definition of a professional league.

 

[demondavey]

Could you imagine the uproar if a Victorian club had only won the flag twice in 15 years? Yet because it has happened to non-Victorian clubs it is fine.

There was an uproar after 6 years. Demetriou and VFL identities made a lot of noise about it.

 

[The 747]

Nope, arguing the game became professional in the mid 2000's when every player got a wage big enough to live off, a pretty standard definition of a professional league.

Fair enough. I don't think you'll get much support for a patently false argument though.

 

[btdg]

Royal Commission/Operation Heartland.

What Royal Commission? That literally didn't happen.

The AFL commission ran an investigation in 2007 into whether Victorian teams faced structural disadvantages; and let me get this straight... as a result, they conspired to ensure that Victorian teams would win by doing the following:

- going back in time 12 months and giving Geelong both a bumper crop of young draftees, then busting Selwood's shoulder so that he would slide to pick 8 and Tom Hawkins being available as Father/Son (don't ask about this one... it involved a time machine and a turkey baster...), thus helping turn a very good Geelong team into a two decade long dynasty

- going back in time and convincing Richmond to draft Tambling/Deledio over Roughead/Franklin, thus setting Hawthorn up for a strong period of success. As a trade-off, Richmond are promised Dustin Martin in the 2008 draft, and are also gifted a 4 year era of success, but not until they have had another decade of heart-breaking losses.

- going back in time and negotiating to play the grand final at the MCG for the next 50 years. The brilliance of this malevolent act is that it LOOKS like they are just extending an arrangement to play the GF at the same place they have done for 110 years, and LOOKS like they are just organising for the game to be played at the biggest and most famous ground in the country - yet what they are really doing is entrenching a horrendous, code-breaking disadvantage so evil that teams such as Adelaide will be so devastated by losing in these circumstances (once, a decade later) that they will literally self-destruct in the off-season. Just pure evil here.

- Instructing the umpires to provide Victorian teams with a systematic advantage, giving them more than 15% more free kicks than their opponent 10% more frequently when said game is played against a non-Victorian team on a rainy day in Melbourne and the wind is blowing east (but not west). Except Richmond, who get screwed by the umpires always, even when the AFL is cheating in their favour by playing the grand final at their home ground.

- Literally winning the 2016 premiership for the Bulldogs by allowing them to throw the ball, play two extra players on the field, and attack their Sydney opponents with steel chairs when the umpires are distracted by Luke Beveridge's girlfriend in the front row. This is another egregious example of the grand final being played at the supposedly 'neutral' MCG where the Bulldogs have played a ridiculous three times for the season, compared with their opponents Sydney who had only played there three times for the season.

Countless other examples of Vicbias. So many other examples that explain what the AFL has done to make Victorian teams win all those premierships. Just too many to even count here, really. Some of them so insidious that they may even LOOK like they advantage non-victorian teams, like giving them a cost of living allowance that lets them poach the best player in the game, then banning them from trading any more players in. Or giving non-victorian teams academies that allow them to draft the sons of former victorian teams in the spirit of 'expanding the game'. Yep, too many to even count.

To try and hide this egregious manipulation, the AFL also decided on a cunning strategy: making two of its biggest Victorian teams (Carlton and Essendon) into basket cases, who won't make a top 4 for two decades. Oh, and Melbourne, right up until it cheats to let them win a grand final. And St Kilda cos screw those guys.

We're down the rabbit hole here folks...

 

[Underarm]

Nope, arguing the game became professional in the mid 2000's when every player got a wage big enough to live off, a pretty standard definition of a professional league.

But why would this affect Non Vic sides more than Vic sides?