Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[Nebular]

He's standing in front of a bookcase so you can tell the bloke is really smart

Would look smarter wearing a lab coat.

 

[The 747]

Yep...I don't venture into the eastern suburbs much these days but the west and north-west are abominable, as is the CBD itself...filthy, homeless everywhere, more and more high-rises creating a soulless, cold, windy overcrowded sh*thole - not the same Melbourne as it used to be.

It's a very big city now, with all the things that come with it - crime, drugs, homelessness. Disagree that the CBD is bad, there are one or two pockets which are horrid but it's busier than it's even been at night. Great vibes.

The suburbs have overcrowding and traffic issues though, no doubt.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

What about the free kick count in the 2017 AFL Grand final? LoL

Haha, did you even watch that match? It was 24-19 Richmond's way, with some of the softest frees that were awarded in that match going Adelaide's way. It almost seemed like the umps were trying to even it up for a while there in the third quarter. Richmond were just too efficient on the day.

Interestingly, it was about the same differential as Brisbane had at the Gabba in the 2019 QF, where the Tigers again won by about 8 goals.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Considering that no one has ever benefitted from this more than Bulldogs fans I doubt they would be too upset.

I personally think Buddy being unfit/rolled ankle along with a couple of other key Swans players on the day cost Sydney the 2016 grand final far more than umpiring.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Considering that no one has ever benefitted from this more than Bulldogs fans I doubt they would be too upset.

This is a fair point.

 

[RUNVS]

No-one hey?

Should Sydney be in the 8?

Against a non-Victorian team, and we are not winning the flag this year.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Against a non-Victorian team, and we are not winning the flag this year.

Oh so that doesn't matter?

So then if you're looking for bias, this is it in a nutshell.

From now on your opinion means nothing.

 

[Gavin Excell]

It's strange that the Vic supporters always seem to band together at finals time. You get s**t like Essendon supporters going for Richmond, or Carlton fans cheering on the Dogs or Demons.

You won't see an Adelaide supporter barracking for Port, or a West Coast fan supporting Freo.

It's staggering how incorrect this is

 

[RUNVS]

Oh so that doesn't matter?

So then if you're looking for bias, this is it in a nutshell.

From now on your opinion means nothing.

How is what I said bias? Just pointing out it isn't as bad as the Bulldogs as it was systemic like it was for the Bulldogs and the Swans are not going to be illegitimately winning a flag this year either.

 

[LoungeLizard]

How is what I said bias? Just pointing out it isn't as bad as the Bulldogs as it was systemic like it was for the Bulldogs and the Swans are not going to be illegitimately winning a flag this year either.

Because you only count the bias if it is against Vic clubs.

Just because you don't win it means jack, where do you dig up this logic from?

 

[RUNVS]

Because you only count the bias if it is against Vic clubs.

Just because you don't win it means jack, where do you dig up this logic from?

Due to the fact that clearly the biases are mostly against the non-Victorian clubs given that as the first post of this thread points out, Victorian clubs get a much better run from the umpires in normal matches, they get a much better run from the umpires in the Grand Final and they have also won something like 13 of the last 15 Grand Finals. These are not statistically insignificant things.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Due to the fact that clearly the biases are mostly against the non-Victorian clubs given that as the first post of this thread points out, Victorian clubs get a much better run from the umpires in normal matches, they get a much better run from the umpires in the Grand Final and they have also won something like 13 of the last 15 Grand Finals. These are not statistically insignificant things.

Yep, that's what we are talking about, umpires and Sydney are playing finals because of an umpiring decision, but you are arguing Vic bias, BWHahahahahaha.

Ask most people who follow football and they will tell you Sydney are the AFL's pets, but you be you.

 

[The 747]

Due to the fact that clearly the biases are mostly against the non-Victorian clubs given that as the first post of this thread points out, Victorian clubs get a much better run from the umpires in normal matches, they get a much better run from the umpires in the Grand Final and they have also won something like 13 of the last 15 Grand Finals. These are not statistically insignificant things.

Not they don't. The differential is pretty evenly dispersed. Umpiring is subjective and you can always argue about what is paid and what is not but the actual facts show that claim to be false. Not that any of the #VICBIAS crew care or bother to read this sort of stuff.

AFL Tables - Free Kicks

In finals Port and Brisbane have the biggest positive differential too.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yep...I don't venture into the eastern suburbs much these days but the west and north-west are abominable, as is the CBD itself...filthy, homeless everywhere, more and more high-rises creating a soulless, cold, windy overcrowded sh*thole - not the same Melbourne as it used to be.

Well I havent been to that Part of Melbourne.

I live in SA. So I am familiar with everywhere but the Eastern suburbs. Norwood and Payenham and Glynde are the upper class areas. You could say areas surrounding Sturt Double blues home ground of Unley isnt bad either.

 

[Freomaniac]

Haha, did you even watch that match? It was 24-19 Richmond's way, with some of the softest frees that were awarded in that match going Adelaide's way. It almost seemed like the umps were trying to even it up for a while there in the third quarter. Richmond were just too efficient on the day.

Interestingly, it was about the same differential as Brisbane had at the Gabba in the 2019 QF, where the Tigers again won by about 8 goals.

Yes I did.

Well Richmond outscored the crows 9.5.59 to 1.8.14 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined. lol

Crows were disallowed some frees in that game, someone made it on youtube



Some umpiring decisions did help richmond in the 1st quarter.

 

[cutterman]

You don’t math so good.

Please enlighten me as to where the maths is wrong there. Ignore the team I support, just trying to critique the data he has presented.

Very inconclusive and hardly a silver bullet.

 

[rmcq]

Interesting stats.

The whole problem is that the AFL LOVES rules based on "judgement". THey contain phrases such as "reasonable", "immediately", "deliberate". These are designed to create controversy, keep crowds interested and a bloated media sated.

These rules create the opportunity for large unconscious bias in umpiring.

Remove the judgement. Tighten up "prior opportunity" and make it simpler. So rather than the nebulous "prior opportunity" with its 5 or 6 associated judgements, just say if a player has possession of the ball for 1 second (or something), then he is deemed to have had prior opportunity. Instead of "a genuine attempt to dispose of the ball" (if no prior opportunity), change the rule to require a genuine disposal.

Instead of "insufficient intent to keep the ball in play": well, the AFL wants to keep the ball in play. Just have the last touch rule then. This in-between rule is just dumb and unworkable, and leads to unconscious bias.

One of my favourites is push-in-the-back. The old AFL rules committee created a non-judgement rule: If you touch the back, then you've infringed. But that was far too clear-cut for the AFL, so they GOT RID OF IT, in favour of constant umpire abuse and media content. After players once again took advantage of the rule change, they brought in ANOTHER rule, the Staging rule to prevent players "pretending". Of course another "judgement" rule, which has conveniently been ignored for the last couple of years. (Does it even still exist? There were a couple of clear fake-outs in the last round that got zero coverage).

My 2 cents.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Interesting stats.

The whole problem is that the AFL LOVES rules based on "judgement". THey contain phrases such as "reasonable", "immediately", "deliberate". These are designed to create controversy, keep crowds interested and a bloated media sated.

These rules create the opportunity for large unconscious bias in umpiring.

Remove the judgement. Tighten up "prior opportunity" and make it simpler. So rather than the nebulous "prior opportunity" with its 5 or 6 associated judgements, just say if a player has possession of the ball for 1 second (or something), then he is deemed to have had prior opportunity. Instead of "a genuine attempt to dispose of the ball" (if no prior opportunity), change the rule to require a genuine disposal.

Instead of "insufficient intent to keep the ball in play": well, the AFL wants to keep the ball in play. Just have the last touch rule then. This in-between rule is just dumb and unworkable, and leads to unconscious bias.

One of my favourites is push-in-the-back. The old AFL rules committee created a non-judgement rule: If you touch the back, then you've infringed. But that was far too clear-cut for the AFL, so they GOT RID OF IT, in favour of constant umpire abuse and media content. After players once again took advantage of the rule change, they brought in ANOTHER rule, the Staging rule to prevent players "pretending". Of course another "judgement" rule, which has conveniently been ignored for the last couple of years. (Does it even still exist? There were a couple of clear fake-outs in the last round that got zero coverage).

My 2 cents.

I do agree that if you make the rules simpler they would be easier to umpire, but I disagree with the holding the ball.

If you start changing rules around holding the ball, players just wait till the opposition pick it up.

 

[rmcq]

I do agree that if you make the rules simpler they would be easier to umpire, but I disagree with the holding the ball.

If you start changing rules around holding the ball, players just wait till the opposition pick it up.

I haven't thought deeply about exactly what the HTB rule changes should be, just that they should be less open to judgement calls.

Even the centre circle ruck contest: Just make the rule "if the ball ends up outside the circle, then throw it up". Right now it seems to be "if the bounce is unfair, then throw it up".

 

[LoungeLizard]

I haven't thought deeply about exactly what the HTB rule changes should be, just that they should be less open to judgement calls.

Even the centre circle ruck contest: Just make the rule "if the ball ends up outside the circle, then throw it up". Right now it seems to be "if the bounce is unfair, then throw it up".

Just throw it up all the time

 

[Go the Guts]

West Coast did it. No excuses.

Lol. By the law of averages, one team will do it every now and then. But more often, they won't be able to overcome the extreme vic bias.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

The 2016 grand final was gifted to the Bulldogs over Sydney, the 2017 grand final was gifted to Richmond over Adelaide.

Anybody who watched either match objectively could see that the umpires were favouring one side.

Whether or not this was due to 'Vic bias' is another question.

Certainly the league in general is Vic-centric and this should be no surprise given its history.

 

[Go the Guts]

Yes I did.

Well Richmond outscored the crows 9.5.59 to 1.8.14 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined. lol

Crows were disallowed some frees in that game, someone made it on youtube



Some umpiring decisions did help richmond in the 1st quarter.

That 2017 GF video just makes me fume. Such ******* bias that day we may as well have never bothered to turn up.
One of many Victorian teams that have been umpired to flags after a very long drought over the last decade.

Next in line are Carlton and St. Kilda. God help any non-victorian side that comes up against either of them on GF day. It's a foregone conclusion.

Any intelligent football follower (from any state) knows Victorian bias isn't just a thing, it's the ONLY thing keeping the AFL from being a respected and TRULY national sport.

 

[rmcq]

Just throw it up all the time

Yes. Either embrace the oval ball like in the old days, or throw it up if you want consistency.

Don't even bother bouncing it at the start of the game. No-one really cares that much. Oh, and please just announce that the Grand Final will be in the afternoon for the next 10 years so we can stop the media games.

 

[rmcq]

That 2017 GF video just makes me fume. Such ******* bias that day we may as well have never bothered to turn up.
One of many Victorian teams that have been umpired to flags after a very long drought over the last decade.

Next in line are Carlton and St. Kilda. God help any non-victorian side that comes up against either of them on GF day. It's a foregone conclusion.

Any intelligent football follower (from any state) knows Victorian bias isn't just a thing, it's the ONLY thing keeping the AFL from being a respected and TRULY national sport.

Oh dear. The game wasn't even close. Plus, there is no deliberate conspiracy, just the umpires suffering unconscious bias, and deliberately vague rules set by the AFL to maintain outrage.