Prediction The Very early 2023 Ladder Predictions

[Kane McGoodwin]

Never claimed you'd finish last, but it's a possibility if your season spirals after such a hard start to the year.

Which games do you win of the below?

Port
Tigers
Pies
Blues
Cats
Lions
Dockers
Dogs

This is a thread about end of season not mid season predictions.

What other posters are giving game by game win/loss for their sides?

Your trolling has no bounds...

 

[Trav 20]

While I don’t mind the top 2 of your ladder predictions, I fail to see how Freo end up 12th if Melbourne dominate. Our teams are similar besides Freo being younger, similar style, 2 x gun rucks and the weakest part is the forward line. If Freo bomb that hard in 23 I can’t see Melbourne dominating and vice versa.

One club is second on the average ''games played'' ladder with 85 games. The other is 16 with 55 games.

Freo won't want any injuries to quality players or their depth will be really tested.

Overall the metrics of the list don't scream finals. That said, I'm not suggesting there's not a lot of quality. It's just very young.

And when it's very young you don't need a lot to go wrong to stumble.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This is a thread about end of season not mid season predictions.

What other posters are giving game by game win/loss for their sides?

Your trolling has no bounds...

That block of games will have a massive impact on the Crows year, which is the point. They either snatch some wins early or they fall in a hole, and you have the Crows finishing jsit below the Demons and Dockers, so surely you have some confidence is suggesting which of those games you’ll win?

 

[Joao]

One club is second on the average ''games played'' ladder with 85 games. The other is 16 with 55 games.

Freo won't want any injuries to quality players or their depth will be really tested.

Overall the metrics of the list don't scream finals. That said, I'm not suggesting there's not a lot of quality. It's just very young.

And when it's very young you don't need a lot to go wrong to stumble.

I think this is a non-sequitur as the difference in age/games demographics between Freo and Melbourne is not because the depth players at Melbourne. It is because of the best 23.

I am making the assumption that JOM ~= Mundy, Grundy >= Jackson, Logue (as a forward) ~= Corbett/Treacy/Amiss etc. I don't consider Tucker or Meek leaving a big deal since Tucker isn't that good and Meek was inexperienced anyway.

Dees
23rd most experience player is Pickett at 62 games.
8 other players with Afl experience - Sparrow, Petty, Jordan, Smith, Bowey, Chandler and Turner - 261 games between them avg ~33

Freo
23rd most experienced player is Corbett at 36 games.
10 other players with Afl experience - Young, Walker, Chapman, Henry, Wagner, Treacy, O'Driscoll, Erasmus, Sturt, Amiss - 178 games between them avg ~18

So there is 80 games between the AFL experienced players. You have 20 players with 100+ games and we have 8. At least 2 of ours are not B22 and I suspect at least 2 of yours aren't either.

So in the event either team loses 5 b22 players, I think the first two are covered by the experienced players outside the B22 for both teams (Colyer, Wilson, Dunstan, Melksham etc). For the other 3, you are likely covering a 100+ game player for a player with less than 30 games to their name. We are replacing a 60-80 game player with a 20 game player.


TLDR: I'd argue that at the very least, Freo and Dees are similarly vulnerable to B22 injuries. In fact, I reckon if you this for most teams you would find similar (except maybe the bottom 6 where their better players don't carry the team as much as the top 6-10 teams).

 

[RonnieRaven]

One club is second on the average ''games played'' ladder with 85 games. The other is 16 with 55 games.

Freo won't want any injuries to quality players or their depth will be really tested.

Overall the metrics of the list don't scream finals. That said, I'm not suggesting there's not a lot of quality. It's just very young.

And when it's very young you don't need a lot to go wrong to stumble.

Lucky there’s good depth in our list
Hamling back to full fitness to cover our tall backs
Wilson experienced running back or walker to cover small defenders
Aish utility cover
Henry Johnson Erasmus wing half fwd cover
One of treacy tabs or amiss will be on stand by along with kuek and banfield
Also have Corbett Sturt knobel and others that can fill a roll if needed

 

[RonnieRaven]

Lucky there’s good depth in our list
Hamling back to full fitness to cover our tall backs
Wilson experienced running back or walker to cover small defenders
Aish utility cover
Henry Johnson Erasmus wing half fwd cover
One of treacy tabs or amiss will be on stand by along with kuek and banfield
Also have Corbett Sturt knobel and others that can fill a roll if needed

Defenders:
Ryan Cox Chapman walker Pearce
Young Clark Hamling Wilson Aish
Midfield/wings:
Darcy Jackson Fyfe Omeara Brayshaw Brodie Serong odriscoll Erasmus Johnson
Fwd: Tabs Amiss Walters Fredrick colyer Henry Schultz switta banfield Treacy Sturt corbet kuek

Extras Wagner worner knobel reidy

 

[Arr0w]

Crows have Port, Tigers, Blues, Pies, Geelong, Dockers, Lions and Dogs in the first 11 rounds, and the Giants are already favourites for your Round 1 match.

You’ll laugh in defense, but your season could be in free fall by Round 12 with so many games against the top sides. You’ll need to surprise a few.

Crows are good money for the spoon too, so might be worth a look.

No way Crows finish last, and don't think they finish bottom 6

 

[Lars27]

Maybe so but they arent doing anything of note this season.

Yeah and that's fine. We have a young developing list.

 

[Hava Alle]

1st. Melbourne
2nd. Brisbane
3rd. Geelong
4th. Richmond
5th. Sydney
6th. Carlton
7th. Collingwood
8th. Fremantle

9th. Port Adelaide
10th. Gold Coast
11th. Western Bulldogs
12th. St Kilda
13th. Adelaide
14th. Essendon
15th. Kangaroos
16th. GWS
17th. Hawthorn
18th. West Coast

 

[CrowToon]

Ridiculous assessment of Essendon imo. Plenty of young talent and nobody of significance retiring in the near future, besides Tippa, who didn't play a game in 2022 anyways. One of the youngest and least experienced teams with lots of upside.

Essendon have no right to claim anything. They have become another Carlton, promising a bit and never showing up. Until you make it, you'll have to deal with people not believing in them. Not sure it is worth rhe debate. Results speak louder than speculative improvements that aren't guaranteed.

That block of games will have a massive impact on the Crows year, which is the point. They either snatch some wins early or they fall in a hole, and you have the Crows finishing jsit below the Demons and Dockers, so surely you have some confidence is suggesting which of those games you’ll win?

This just in, winning games is good. We have proved in the last two seasons we are capable of knocking off good sides on our day. We beat the Power, Tigers and the Blues, we beat the Doggies in Ballarat. The year before just coming off a spoon we knocked off the Cats and the until then undefeated Demons. You can argue whatever you like but each of those games would've been ticked off as losses prior to the bounce.

With trades and organic improvement we should be a better side and will at some point beat a much better side than ourselves. So excuse us if we don't wonder whether we will win a game before rd 11, it'll happen several times. But feel free to post our opponents for the fifty-third time.

 

[tonygeeks]

Interesting discussion about ‘spines’ , I think it should be your 2 best KPF/KPD plus your best bigger contested ball winner plus your #1 ruckman

I’d give Freo’s 6/10 maybe

Tabs

Jackson ? Amiss ? Fyfe ?

Darcy / Brodie

Cox

Pearce

 

[Lars27]

Essendon have no right to claim anything. They have become another Carlton, promising a bit and never showing up. Until you make it, you'll have to deal with people not believing in them. Not sure it is worth rhe debate. Results speak louder than speculative improvements that aren't guaranteed.

I am not even claiming we are going to be any good. I simply pointed out that we have a young developing list and that we don't have any important players nearing retirement. He referred to Parish and Redman leaving, when there is no proof of that at all. I also disagreed that our list is 'A nothing list. Neither coming or going'.
Results do speak louder than speculation, but the whole point of this thread IS to speculate 2023 ladder results. I think Essendon's midfield is better and deeper than those teams around us such as Hawthorn , Adelaide etc. and I think we will do better than a lot are predicating. As long as Peter Wright plays most games. We rely on him way too much at this stage.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Yeah and that's fine. We have a young developing list.

Thats not what the other poster was saying

 

[eth-dog]

Honestly don't know where this idea that Essendon haven't bottomed out comes from.

We have the 3rd youngest list in the AFL, and the 4th least experienced. Only two 30+ year olds, both of whom you could argue aren't in our best side. Have only 16 players who were on the list as recent as 2019.

We'll struggle again this year but it looks like we're on the right track.

 

[Dirty Bird]

1. Richmond (Premiers)
2. Brisbane (Lose Prelim)
3. Melbourne (Lose Semi)
4. Gold Coast (Runners-Up)
5. Geelong (Lose Elim)
6. Sydney (Lose Prelim)
7. Carlton (Lose Elim)
8. Collingwood (Lose Semi)
--------------------------------
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Adelaide
11. Fremantle
12. Port Adelaide
13. Greater Western Sydney
14. St Kilda
15. West Coast
16. Essendon
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

1. Richmond (Premiers)
2. Brisbane (Lose Prelim)
3. Melbourne (Lose Semi)
4. Gold Coast (Runners-Up)
5. Geelong (Lose Elim)
6. Sydney (Lose Prelim)
7. Carlton (Lose Elim)
8. Collingwood (Lose Semi)
--------------------------------
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Adelaide
11. Fremantle
12. Port Adelaide
13. Greater Western Sydney
14. St Kilda
15. West Coast
16. Essendon
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn

Just out of interest, who did Gold Coast beat in the prelim in this hilarious scenario, Brisbane or Sydney?

Congrats to the Tigers on beating their bogey team in the grand final by the way

 

[eth-dog]

Just out of interest, who did Gold Coast beat in the prelim in this hilarious scenario, Brisbane or Sydney?

Congrats to the Tigers on beating their bogey team in the grand final by the way

Brisbane it looks like.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Losing Lewis for round one swings the game in Essendon's favour. Which is rough as he's our most important player IMO, and this is one of the games that is definitely winnable for us. A real 8 point game in terms of ladder position for the respective sides.

 

[Bradkli]

Losing Lewis for round one swings the game in Essendon's favour. Which is rough as he's our most important player IMO, and this is one of the games that is definitely winnable for us. A real 8 point game in terms of ladder position for the respective sides.

Losing Lewis for an extended period of time will be a disaster for us. Our first 6 games of the season were the best part of the fixture for the year. Games include: Essendon, north Melbourne, gws (in Adelaide) and Adelaide in Tassie. If Lewis misses 4 of those games, we will be lucky to win 2. If we’re 1-5 after 6 games, we will be clear favourite for the spoon.

 

[Red Bull]

Losing Lewis for an extended period of time will be a disaster for us. Our first 6 games of the season were the best part of the fixture for the year. Games include: Essendon, north Melbourne, gws (in Adelaide) and Adelaide in Tassie. If Lewis misses 4 of those games, we will be lucky to win 2. If we’re 1-5 or 2-4 after 6 games, we will be clear favourite for the spoon.

This is why rebuilds are so hard.
With such young, thin lists, it doesn’t take much to really derail a season.
Some delusional belief from some here that simply going to the draft for 3 years will see a team automatically return to finals action.
The reality is that there are injuries, defections, draftees not making the grade, fixture anomalies, bad luck and many other factors along the journey.
Typically, teams in rebuild have rookie coaches, so when the losses continue to mount and the pressure builds, the footy media circles and show no mercy in search of a headline.
Mitchell, the club and supporters are in for some hard yards ahead which after being on top for so long is the way the game is designed to be these days …

 

[Bradkli]

This is why rebuilds are so hard.
With such young, thin lists, it doesn’t take much to really derail a season.
Some delusional belief from some here that simply going to the draft for 3 years will see a team automatically return to finals action.
The reality is that there are injuries, defections, draftees not making the grade, fixture anomalies, bad luck and many other factors along the journey.
Typically, teams in rebuild have rookie coaches, so when the losses continue to mount and the pressure builds, the footy media circles and show no mercy in search of a headline.
Mitchell, the club and supporters are in for some hard yards ahead which after being on top for so long is the way the game is designed to be these days …

100% agree..even with Lewis, who is one of the best key forwards in the comp we were going to finish bottom 4..couple his injury with Gunston moving on and it’s looking more than likely we finish bottom 2.

It’s going to be up to the likes of Wingard (if he doesn’t get injured), Breust and moore to lead the forward line. Jacob Koschitzke is not a number 1 key forward and will be forced to play that role in the early rounds of the season.

Former bulldog Fergus greene will also play early on and hopefully can bring his vfl form from last season, where he was one of the leading goal kickers in the competition.

It’s going to be a long season for the young hawks!

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Just out of interest, who did Gold Coast beat in the prelim in this hilarious scenario, Brisbane or Sydney?

Congrats to the Tigers on beating their bogey team in the grand final by the way

Brisbane.

Posters who are pretty much picking the same finalists with minimal changes are likely to be wrong as in the AFL era, there are always 2-3 changes including someone like Gold Coast jumping into the top 4.

I'm personally picking the Lions for the flag, but there will most likely be major changes to the finalists.

 

[The hands of stone]

Losing Lewis for an extended period of time will be a disaster for us. Our first 6 games of the season were the best part of the fixture for the year. Games include: Essendon, north Melbourne, gws (in Adelaide) and Adelaide in Tassie. If Lewis misses 4 of those games, we will be lucky to win 2. If we’re 1-5 after 6 games, we will be clear favourite for the spoon.

Its a minor injury , thats a pretty dramatic response to it

 

[Bradkli]

Its a minor injury , thats a pretty dramatic response to it

He’s already been ruled out for round 1..with his injury history, especially having injured the same knee last season, he will not be rushed back. The club will be conservative. Whilst it’s not a full ACL tear, it’s obviously a serious strain. I would be surprised if he plays before round 4 or 5. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[xmarksthespot]

He’s already been ruled out for round 1..with his injury history, especially having injured the same knee last season, he will not be rushed back. The club will be conservative. Whilst it’s not a full ACL tear, it’s obviously a serious strain. I would be surprised if he plays before round 4 or 5. Hope I’m wrong.

I'm pretty confident in saying that you have absolutely no idea how serious it is. Missing up to five rounds would imply a 12 week injury. Nothing has been reported that would imply this is the case, let alone state it outright.

How about taking a few deep breaths before you deliver last rites. Your 'sky is falling' schtick is so very tiresome.