Twomey's Phantom Draft

[Suma Magic]

It depends on what you want from it. If you want it to be as accurate as possible (and her's generally seem to be so spot on that she must have the inside word with the clubs), then I'd say she's spot on. If you want it to just be a personal opinion and not indicative of what you expect the clubs to do, then you could put it out after the combine, or after the trade period is over. To be honest, I'm more interested in the inside word she gets from the clubs than her own personal opinions of the players.

But there is a point in releasing it earlier. Earlier is when people want an expert's take on a potential order. By the day before the draft there are always lots of reasonably accurate phantoms.

Even if it is a bit less accurate, I would place much higher value on her releasing one a week or two before the draft. Putting one out early doesn't mean she can't release an updated version the day before the draft.

 

[Keys]

But there is a point in releasing it earlier. Earlier is when people want an expert's take on a potential order. By the day before the draft there are always lots of reasonably accurate phantoms.

Even if it is a bit less accurate, I would place much higher value on her releasing one a week or two before the draft. Putting one out early doesn't mean she can't release an updated version the day before the draft.

Needs to be a distinction between ranking players which should be done after the combine and then a phantom draft closer to the day of the draft which is a guesstimate of what the draft order might be. People with a background in following the underage comps should do the former and those with closer ties to clubs and player managers should do the latter

 

[Keys]

And if people think Twomey is mainly guessing, heres Quayle taking guess work to all new levels
http://media.theage.com.au/video-sp...a-quayles-afl-draft-pick-preview-6028292.html

To be fair, the poker game between GWS and Collingwood around picks 4 through 7 makes it hard to predict what those clubs might do and that it turn shapes a lot of what might happen thereafter coupled with players in that bracket being very even.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

But there is a point in releasing it earlier. Earlier is when people want an expert's take on a potential order. By the day before the draft there are always lots of reasonably accurate phantoms.

Not me. I'm more than happy to just get a write-up of the players that have been invited to the combines and state screenings at that stage. I probably care about this stuff more than most and there's a decent chance I'll know nothing about the guy that's taken at #20 this year when it happens. I reckon the average AFL supporter wouldn't be able to name 10 players that will go in this year's draft (and they'd probably only get past two or three by going with the father-sons). I honestly am not really fussed with the draft until after it happens, yet I can't think of a friend that cares more than even I do. The introduction to our draftees for them usually comes when I go to a preseason game with them and they ask 'Who's number 43?'

You'd almost have to wonder if the various media outlets really get any bang for their buck out of all this draft coverage. Quayle's good at it because she's good at the feature articles, which are great for upcoming draft picks (even if I've forgotten their name 24 hours later). If she released a phantom draft in mid-October, I'd have no idea if she'd been accurate or not, because I would have long since forgotten the order she had. And unless there is an ex-list manager around that has a great track record at the draft (but for some reason, is no longer working for a club or the league) and isn't afraid to dish out some pretty harsh criticism on a 17 or 18 year old that he or she doesn't like, I'm not sure where they could find such a person.

And where are these 'accurate phantoms'? Here? I wonder how accurate they'd be if the people compiling them weren't getting snippets from the professionals during the year.

Even if it is a bit less accurate, I would place much higher value on her releasing one a week or two before the draft. Putting one out early doesn't mean she can't release an updated version the day before the draft.

Again, I think the issue is that people simply don't care enough and the ones that do don't care until after the player movement period finishes up, by and large. Mid-season mock drafts work in the US sports, because everyone is already familiar with most of the players involved: they see them on TV on a weekly basis. The people who frequent this board (and even this site) probably wouldn't be indicative of Fairfax's target audience.

 

[Suma Magic]

Not me. I'm more than happy to just get a write-up of the players that have been invited to the combines and state screenings at that stage. I probably care about this stuff more than most and there's a decent chance I'll know nothing about the guy that's taken at #20 this year when it happens. I reckon the average AFL supporter wouldn't be able to name 10 players that will go in this year's draft (and they'd probably only get past two or three by going with the father-sons). I honestly am not really fussed with the draft until after it happens, yet I can't think of a friend that cares more than even I do. The introduction to our draftees for them usually comes when I go to a preseason game with them and they ask 'Who's number 43?'

You'd almost have to wonder if the various media outlets really get any bang for their buck out of all this draft coverage. Quayle's good at it because she's good at the feature articles, which are great for upcoming draft picks (even if I've forgotten their name 24 hours later). If she released a phantom draft in mid-October, I'd have no idea if she'd been accurate or not, because I would have long since forgotten the order she had. And unless there is an ex-list manager around that has a great track record at the draft (but for some reason, is no longer working for a club or the league) and isn't afraid to dish out some pretty harsh criticism on a 17 or 18 year old that he or she doesn't like, I'm not sure where they could find such a person.

And where are these 'accurate phantoms'? Here? I wonder how accurate they'd be if the people compiling them weren't getting snippets from the professionals during the year.



Again, I think the issue is that people simply don't care enough and the ones that do don't care until after the player movement period finishes up, by and large. Mid-season mock drafts work in the US sports, because everyone is already familiar with most of the players involved: they see them on TV on a weekly basis. The people who frequent this board (and even this site) probably wouldn't be indicative of Fairfax's target audience.

Mid October would be way too early.

I'm just saying that there is a point in releasing it more than a day out from the draft. 2 days out, 3 days out, 1 week out - this wouldn't be a pointless exercise (as Quayle claims it would be).

 

[invinoveritas]

I personally think that the draft will go as follows, I welcome your comments and hope you all have a great draft day tomorrow.

1. Christian Petracca
2. Angus Brayshaw
3. Paddy McCartin
4. Jarrod Pickett
5. Jordan De Goey
6. Paul Ahern
7. Peter Wright
8. Liam Duggan
9. Darcy Moore
10. Jake Lever
11. Jayden Laverde
12. Corey Ellis
13. Sam Durdin
14. Hugh Goddard
15. Jarrod Garlett
16. Lachie Weller
17. Nakia Cockatoo
18. Isaac Heeney
19. Connor Blakely
20. Caleb Marchbank
21. Alex Neal-Bullen
22. Kyle Langford
23. Touk Miller
24. Jack Steele
25. Oscar McDonald
26. Harrison Wigg
27. Connor Menadue
28. Blaine Boekhorst
29. Daniel McKenzie
30. Ed Vickers-Willis

Been a WCE fan I would love West Coast to be able to pick the following if available, 1st Pick - Pickett, Ahern or Laverde. 2nd Pick - Connor Blakely, Jarrod Garlett or Nakia Cockatoo. 3rd Pick - Mitch McGovern, Clem Smith or Damien Cavka. 4th Pick - Jack Cripps, Tyler Keitel, Matt Panos or Shane Yarran.

 

[Hank93]

Not sure if he has inside info or just trying to throw us all of the scent! Some questionable picks in there IMO, but he's the expert so you'd hope that he'd know best.

He got the first 12 picks correct I believe last year, so would have to have some inside info.

 

[Asgardian]

The Lions win this pissing contest.

You jokers did your work at the F/S & Academy draft meeting along with the trade table.

44. Brisbane Lions (the Lions are committed to selecting academy pick Liam Dawson)
61. Brisbane Lions (the Lions are committed to selecting academy pick Harris Andrews)
65. Brisbane Lions (received from Collingwood in Dayne Beams trade)
73. Brisbane Lions
81. Brisbane Lions
86. Brisbane Lions (the Lions are committed to taking father-son pick Josh Clayton with their final draft selection)

Why not let Port, crows, Dockers & Eagles have Academy options?

 

[dlanod]

Why not let Port, crows, Dockers & Eagles have Academy options?

I'm sure you can find that discussion in 30 other threads, why add another.

 

[Asgardian]

I'm sure you can find that discussion in 30 other threads, why add another.

It's a very important side issue ... in fact apart from the Adelaide Oval wealth distribution, this is about as important as it gets ...

 

[TradeDraft]

To be fair, the poker game between GWS and Collingwood around picks 4 through 7 makes it hard to predict what those clubs might do and that it turn shapes a lot of what might happen thereafter coupled with players in that bracket being very even.

Well going by the Mock Drafts. Is looks almost Ceratin the Pies will take De Goey. IF There

 

[Keys]

Well going by the Mock Drafts. Is looks almost Ceratin the Pies will take De Goey. IF There

I'm not convinced they're not taking laverde

 

[TradeDraft]

I'm not convinced they're not taking laverde

We are still Linked to him but the Talk seems to be going Cold on us Picking Laverade