MMA-UFC UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway

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BradWCE

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Thought I'd make a thread for UFC 212 seeing as it's on this upcoming weekend.

Main Card
Featherweight José Aldo (c) vs. Max Holloway (ic)
Women's Strawweight Cláudia Gadelha vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Light Heavyweight Vitor Belfort vs. Nate Marquardt
Middleweight Paulo Borrachinha vs. Oluwale Bamgbose
Welterweight Erick Silva vs. Yancy Medeiros

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Bantamweight Raphael Assunção vs. Marlon Moraes
Middleweight Antônio Carlos Júnior vs. Eric Spicely
Bantamweight Johnny Eduardo vs. Matthew Lopez
Bantamweight Iuri Alcântara vs. Brian Kelleher

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Women's Strawweight Viviane Pereira vs. Jamie Moyle
Welterweight Luan Chagas vs. Jim Wallhead
Flyweight Marco Beltrán vs. Deiveson Alcântara

Not a lot of interesting fights. Aldo/Holloway is a great fight. I really like the co-main too. So, I'd expect the card to end well.

Belfort/Marquardt is probably a good match-up. If they're going to keep fighting (Belfort's retiring after this fight I think) then I guess it's better to have them fight each other rather than feed them to some young guys.

Silva/Medeiros will probably be entertaining, but I don't really care too much about the fight.

Assunção/Moraes is a great fight.
 
Aldo Vs Holloway - To me it looks like a decision win for Aldo. I rate and like Holloway but Aldo is still the best featherweight going around.

Gadelha Vs Kowalkiewicz - Gadelha I think wins this fight. Assuming she goes for her take downs, I'd like to see her be more proactive with ground'n'pound or try to get Kowalkiewicz's arm/back. Too often I think Gadelha's take downs are just to appease judges. I think that was part of her downfall against JJ 2.
 

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Looked over the card a bit more thoroughly than I did when I started this thread. There are 3 really good fights; the main, co-main and last prelim. The PPV portion has a couple of great fights to end it. The rest of the main card should be fun fights.

I rewatched Aldo/Edgar 2 and Holloway/Pettis. This is such a great fight. My heart says Aldo and my head says it's a real 50/50. There are some similarities between breaking down this fight and Aldo/McGregor. Holloway doesn't hit like McGregor but he does work at a really quick pace like McGregor. I think Aldo has most of the advantages on the feet, minus the volume edge. If Aldo threw more volume this would be an easy pick for me.

I really can't see Holloway taking Aldo down. I don't know how likely it is, but Aldo looking for and getting takedowns could happen. I'd like to see him at least look for them, as it'd give Holloway something to think about. I counted 2 low kicks by Aldo against Edgar last fight, but fightmetric says 4. Either way, Aldo didn't need to use his best weapon to win. Against Holloway I think he'll be willing to throw low kicks. Pettis landed a number of jabs and low kicks on Holloway. Have to imagine early on Aldo will have plenty of success landing these strikes too.

Really it comes down to volume. If Aldo can slow the pace down he should win if it goes to decision. If Holloway is able to fight at the quick pace that he prefers, he should win the decision. Holloway could finish Aldo if he gets into his rhythm and piles up all that volume. I think Holloway could get himself KO'd too. He's really durable but if his game isn't working against Aldo and he feels the need to get reckless, he could walk into something big. So many guys feel Aldo's power and back off leading to him winning by decision. I don't think Holloway will do that and that will put him in more danger. I think Aldo by decision but have no damn idea.

I think Gadelha should win. Kowalkiewicz is lucky she's ridiculously tough because she's a mess defensively, especially early on. I think Gadelha wins the first couple of rounds. Gadelha probably lands better at range early on and works takedowns. Kowalkiewicz's best bet early on might be in the clinch, but Gadelha is great at stifling your output in the clinch early on. I really can't see Gadelha losing the first round. I think she should win round 2 as well. Kowalkiewicz probably takes over a bit late and wins round 3. I think Gadelha by 29-28 decision seems the most likely outcome

Belfort/Marquardt would be really fun without knowing everything about them. No matter how it ends I suspect it'll be pretty depressing. Marquardt could get knocked out badly. Belfort could get knocked out, or just not have early success and crumble. He didn't crumble against Gastelum, so that might mean it's more likely he gets knocked out badly here. If the fight goes to decision, it'll be weird and not very good imo. I think Belfort lands something early to pick up the KO win.

I didn't recognise Borrachinha's name when I skimmed over the card the first time. This will be a fun fight too. It's like Belfort/Marquardt minus the sadness of that fight. Borrachinha ran through McLellan in his UFC debut, which doesn't say too much. He looks a sounder striker than Bamgbose. Either guy could win early. If it goes into round 3 the fight will probably be pretty weird. Neither are defensively good, so either could get the early finish. I think Borrachinha's more likely to get that early finish.

Silva/Medeiros should be fun. Seems like the question is whether Silva can finish Medeiros early. If he can't then Medeiros likely takes over. I think Medeiros survives and finished Silva later in the fight.

Moraes/Assunção is a great fight. Assunção had a really close win over Sterling and all Sterling was willing to do early on was kick. Later in the fight he opened up with his hands more and looked better. I think Moraes wins. He's a better kicker than Sterling and is more willing to box. Takedowns by Assunção could be a factor though. I think Moraes keeps it standing enough to win the decision.
 
Ive got Aldo as favourite here. His Muay Thai is a level above. I also believe he could also rely on his wrestling and grappling if need be. Aldo's leg kicks could be a big factor with Holloway not being very committed to checking as far as I can remember. It's also an advantage this fight being in Brazil. For Holloway, I think his unorthodox striking and his chaining of 5-6+ strike combo's are an advantage. I also think he has a big advantage in the cardio dept. Aldo tends to only throw one or two strikes which may be an opening for counters for Holloway. He also has to have a lot of belief in himself with 10 wins in a row. Been looking forward to this for a while.
 

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deklares said:
Holloways only chance at that fight is if the Mayweather joke of a fight falls through IMO.
Click to expand...

Tongue in cheek, nobody really knows when Conor is fighting again. It's an obvious 'superfight' to make though in the future, assuming Holloway's reign lasts.
 
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