Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Zidane98]

Keep taking the L's buddy

It's a shame Putin doesn't talk about them tovarisch.

 

[blackcat]

It is important keep in mind how long the game can last. Major US involvement in Vietnam lasted about 6 years. For the USSR in Afghanistan it was about 8 years. The Iran-Iraq war lasted almost 8 years.

Gaza-Israel-Iran is about China
Ukraine-Russia is about China

this is about DC/ChathamHouse's attempt to infringe Sino's supply of hydrocarbons , why is Venezuela enemy of DC

 

[jatz14]

Ukraine should definitely defend themselves, and that includes getting a peace deal to save the farm

Putin is an imperialist no doubt. Does he have the capability to do much more? not sure, not close to transitria but that's his best option

CIA were definitely sniffing around the maiden revolution, probably didn't cause it though. It was a pretty clear cause of the land grabs and eventually invasion by Russia(not a moral justification, just a pragmatic one)

They're all NATO countries which engages the nuclear argument, hasn't proven himself a fool so far.

Ukraine is losing ground by the day, I don't think the new aid deal will help much, could very well be wrong

Same as the argument that Putin will keep doing the invasions, could be wrong but I don't see it

The counter argument being NATO vs Warsaw pact which did prevent a world destroying war(just). Think WW1 wasn't a large military pact, more lots of interconnecting small ones

I think Russia has most of what they want, would probably like to take Zaporizhzhia and a little more of the east. why I'm on peace negotiations

This is the difference.

I dont think Russia has even got a tiny portion of what they want.

A peace deal now on Russian terms is just a pause, to let them catch their breath.

And I am pretty sure this is the opinion in Ukraine and most of Eastern Europe.

And did you see the plan the Soviets had for the military destruction of Nato.

It involved nuking every non nuclear NATO country before crushing them with it's military.

They believed no nuclear NATO country would risk nuclear war for another country, NATO alliance or not.

I don't think Putin regards NATO countries as protected by NATO, when push comes to shove, so he will push.

It's why we got all the nukes talk. He wants to firmly embed the idea, opposing Putin = risking nuclear war.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

Apr 30

Italy has given Ukraine long-range missiles, says UK defense minister

The announcement by Grant Shapps lifts the veil on some of Italy's secrecy when it comes to military aid for Ukraine.

www.defensenews.com

Britain’s defense minister has stated that Italy has sent Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, lifting the lid on months of secrecy surrounding Italy’s supply of weaponry to Kyiv.

Hitherto, the country’s right-wing government has kept its list of arms packages for Ukraine secret, although it has reportedly planned to send Stinger surface-to-air missiles, mortars, Milan or Panzerfaust anti-tank weapons, Browning heavy machine guns, MG-type light machine guns, systems for countering improvised explosive devices, multiple-launch rocket systems, PzH 2000 howitzers and vehicles.

Entering into service with the Italian Army in 2013, Samp-T is a truck-based tactical antimissile system designed to tackle cruise missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles.
Asked this month if Italy would respond to Ukrainian requests for another system given the uptick in Russian missile attacks in Ukraine, Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani was noncommittal, stating, “We are doing everything we can to help Ukraine and give answers through the instruments we have.”

Speaking to The Times in the UK, Shapps also criticized Germany for holding back on sending Ukraine its Taurus cruise missile.

 

[blackcat]

This is the difference.

I dont think Russia has even got a tiny portion of what they want.

A peace deal now on Russian terms is just a pause, to let them catch their breath.

And I am pretty sure this is the opinion in Ukraine and most of Eastern Europe.

And did you see the plan the Soviets had for the military destruction of Nato.

It involved nuking every non nuclear NATO country before crushing them with it's military.

They believed no nuclear NATO country would risk nuclear war for another country, NATO alliance or not.

I don't think Putin regards NATO countries as protected by NATO, when push comes to shove, so he will push.

It's why we got all the nukes talk. He wants to firmly embed the idea, opposing Putin = risking nuclear war.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

just want Minsk™ activated and no NATO surrounding them

 

[Cap]

why I'm on peace negotiations

So you are basically on board the genocide of the remaining Ukrainians in the stolen land.

Which is what will happen, we know that because it is already happening.

 

[Millky95]

Worth the read imo

 

[Chief]

just want Minsk™ activated and no NATO surrounding them

So we should expect more invasions of surrounding NATO countries?

 

[Cap]

Worth the read imo

It's genuinely breathtaking what losses Russia is willing to accept for such tiny advances.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Movement of the frontline over the 4 months of 2024.
View attachment 1974955

Russia's recent territory gains are not particularly sizeable on a kilometre level. The reason why it's worrying, is not the quantity of ground captured, so much as the opportunities the RF gains from the new bridgehead to actually make gains from this point. It certainly is the largest territorial gain for the RF since I guess approx Lisichansk region yonks ago, it's just still not that big. What's gonna be interesting is what happens from now.

Notes for newcomers: Ocherytne is the spike near Avdiivka. Chasiv Yar is the movement near Bakhmut. You can see the mostly stalemate Robotyne down the bottom left. To focus in on the hottest regions, I've cut out other areas further away (Kislivka village fell to RF off map to the north, an island off-map to the west fell to Ukraine).

Seriously, my neighbour has mown more territory of his lawn than this in 2024. The sonofabitch won't get off that hecking ride-on mower.

 

[wannabejack]

It's genuinely breathtaking what losses Russia is willing to accept for such tiny advances.

It certainly is "breathtaking" considering the delays in western (especially USA) aid to Ukraine.

 

[Andre]

Long story short, its enough keep Ukraine in the fight but not enough to win. Which in my opinion appears to be the aim of the US and Germany.

Yeah, still too many in the West, especially Germany and some in the US (the Jake Sullivan 'faction'), who worry if it becomes too dire for Russia Putin will go Nuclear. They still hope for some mythical path, where it becomes obvious to him he's going to lose, but it hasn't been so suddenly catastrophic, that he can just pack up and go home, remaining the strong man of Russia.

They worry too much, that so many parts of Russia would gladly bail on being part of it, that too weakened a Russia army would make this possible, and Putin would rather Nuke Ukraine and hope the West capitulates, then accept a major defeat and risk losing power. Of course they fall into the appeasement trap, that weakness is more likely to lead to him rolling the dice, then being strong. The best way to ensure peace is to flood Ukraine with weapons, making Russia situation so weakened, they have no choice but to retreat. With it clear that if Russia can't handle the Ukrainians using just a fraction of the West's weapons, then an attack on NATO to 'escalate to deescalate' would lead to Russia having no military of any consequence by the end of a month.

 

[Cap]

It certainly is "breathtaking" considering the delays in western (especially USA) aid to Ukraine.

Absolutely.

Hopefully we see some more confidence from UA now.

 

[blackcat]

So we should expect more invasions of surrounding NATO countries?

James Baker

JFK Cuba Missile Crisis™✓

We would be ferked cherf if you were leading us

 

[rank and file]

Could be right blackcat unless X has been owned

 

[Aussie in exile]

It's genuinely breathtaking what losses Russia is willing to accept for such tiny advances.

Russia is employing 1st world war tactics to try and make ground in Ukraine, ie: sending 1,000's of its soldiers to their deaths to gain metres of ground, but Putin and Lavrov are not worried as none of the male members of their families are serving in the Russian armed forces let alone the front line.

 

[Zidane98]

It's genuinely breathtaking what losses Russia is willing to accept for such tiny advances.

That's very damning for Putin & co. Been nearly 5 months without US military aid for Ukraine and they've only made small, incremental advances with huge equipment & manpower losses.


Biden will sign the aid bill into law today. $61 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Also EU nations have barely gotten started on their packages. Last time this happened Ukraine took back Lyman area and Kherson completely within 6 months. Putin could counter this by going for all out mobilisation but that doesn't seem particularly popular in Russia atm and he could have himself another Wagner style revolt on his hands.


The situation for Russia is Putin needs a quick victory now or a long, drawn out war that does nothing for Russia other than further isolate it from the international community and/or cause hardship for the everyday Russian. It won't affect the political elite and/or Oligarchs, they can also find ways to enrich themselves.

 

[jatz14]

Keep taking the L's buddy

So, do you mean that you see Russian successes on the battlefield as victories for you and your debating points, and defeats for the people that believe in this day and age, we should be past strong men killing hundreds of thousands over territorial ambitions?

 

[Baldur]

Yeah, still too many in the West, especially Germany and some in the US (the Jake Sullivan 'faction'), who worry if it becomes too dire for Russia Putin will go Nuclear. They still hope for some mythical path, where it becomes obvious to him he's going to lose, but it hasn't been so suddenly catastrophic, that he can just pack up and go home, remaining the strong man of Russia.

They worry too much, that so many parts of Russia would gladly bail on being part of it, that too weakened a Russia army would make this possible, and Putin would rather Nuke Ukraine and hope the West capitulates, then accept a major defeat and risk losing power. Of course they fall into the appeasement trap, that weakness is more likely to lead to him rolling the dice, then being strong. The best way to ensure peace is to flood Ukraine with weapons, making Russia situation so weakened, they have no choice but to retreat. With it clear that if Russia can't handle the Ukrainians using just a fraction of the West's weapons, then an attack on NATO to 'escalate to deescalate' would lead to Russia having no military of any consequence by the end of a month.

Putin remains a rational actor, he will not use nukes if he thinks it may lead to Russia's doom. The more he is appeased, the more he takes western coward leaders into his calulations. Their very appeasement leads to the situation they wish to aviod.

 

[blackcat]

Could be right blackcat unless X has been owned

they still ha acquisitioned 2or3 hundred B billion in privates assets of Russians and intend* on putting them in Ukraine's hand

___and will be a million Uki/Russian fatalities before this one is over , and BlackrockStatestreetFidelityVanguard owning arable land in ukraine, if you stop thinking there you are intended to stop thinking , but that aint the story , and i would be duplicitous to claim I K.N.O.W. the story
^ Chief
cherf_i_dont_know

but i do seek better and more full information

like Gillard Churchill Keynes bertrandrussell and have said that aphorism from

 

[Chief]

and i would be duplicitous to claim I K.N.O.W. the story
^ @Chief
cherf_i_dont_know

I don't understand what you are saying here. It seems like a lot of effort put into being as opaque as you can.

 

[blackcat]

So we should expect more invasions of surrounding NATO countries?

Ossettia and south ossettia, yes , 12yrs back

 

[blackcat]

I don't understand what you are saying here. It seems like a lot of effort put into being as opaque as you can.

Chief Americans and UK acquisitioned hundreds of billions in Russian private property assets


start tracing it to Maria Sharapova plus Olympicteam and go further back , because StateDep't and Brookings a Kissinger/Brzezinski shift would occured ~2decades back as they took over a dozen years to get their ducks in a row and finish with Afghanistan and Iraq.... heck Telstra stopped ZeroHedge pages 6 years back

ask @maddaddam
see naomiwolf

 

[Chief]

Chief Americans and UK acquisitioned hundreds of billions in Russian private property assets


start tracing it to Maria Sharapova plus Olympicteam and go further back , because StateDep't and Brookings a Kissinger/Brzezinski shift would occured ~2decades back as they took over a dozen years to get their ducks in a row and finish with Afghanistan and Iraq.... heck Telstra stopped ZeroHedge pages 6 years back

ask @maddaddam
see naomiwolf

No I don't know why you tagged me with that opaque alphabet soup.

 

[Zidane98]

So, do you mean that you see Russian successes on the battlefield as victories for you and your debating points, and defeats for the people that believe in this day and age, we should be past strong men killing hundreds of thousands over territorial ambitions?

In other words the 3 day invasion is going perfectly in their eyes.