the forecast on sunday is 15 degrees rain windy stormy.not very good conditions for our super forward line, do you think this will make the game a lot closer than what most people think.i would definetly prefer it to be dry as we should win easily,however with this forecast im a little worried, i hope im bloody wrong as to lose to them would be heartbreaking.your thoughts
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weather on suday
- Thread starter dales
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Two ways to look at poor conditions.
1) Poor conditions will help the less skilled team as the wind and rain will cause the more skilled team to make errors they would not in quality conditions.
2) Poor conditions will help the skilled team as the well balanced sure footed and gifted by hand and foot player will be the difference in an otherwise scrappy affair.
Its one of those debates that crops up like "is it an advantage to have the week off during the finals or maintain momentum?".
The truth to the matter is if we are legit, we should beat Carlton in 30'c,
-5c, bright sunshine, a blizzard or in a freaking tornado.
The one thing you would suspect is that poor conditions will effect scoring so a margin may be reduced. However, a 3 goal lead with 5 mins to go in bad conditions is the equivalent of a 6 goal lead at the same time.
1) Poor conditions will help the less skilled team as the wind and rain will cause the more skilled team to make errors they would not in quality conditions.
2) Poor conditions will help the skilled team as the well balanced sure footed and gifted by hand and foot player will be the difference in an otherwise scrappy affair.
Its one of those debates that crops up like "is it an advantage to have the week off during the finals or maintain momentum?".
The truth to the matter is if we are legit, we should beat Carlton in 30'c,
-5c, bright sunshine, a blizzard or in a freaking tornado.
The one thing you would suspect is that poor conditions will effect scoring so a margin may be reduced. However, a 3 goal lead with 5 mins to go in bad conditions is the equivalent of a 6 goal lead at the same time.
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Jabso
Brownlow Medallist
Collingwoodrow said:
I don't agree with #1. If a team has poor skills, they will have even poorer skills in the wet and the more skillfull team, which is usually more experienced and smart, will be able to adapt better. The only reason you see a few upsets in the wet is because it's a low scoring game so the margin is always close, this means that a few goals in a burst will suprise the team. Also sometimes the more "skillfull" team just goes out and plays stupid wet weather footy and try to be too precise, AKA playing like millionaires.
Jabso....I'm actually a bigger fan of the second theory too. Think of the Brisbane Lions and how good they played in the rain. Remember that game last year (I think it was last year) when Acker kicked 5 in poor conditions with two goal of the year candidates. The cream will rise no matter what the conditions.
That to me is the difference in wet weather football.
You also have to remember that a wet ground will reduce the ability of Carlton to get numbers back to help out their defenders against our forward line. We may not mark it cleanly but we have guys who can operate at ground level (Burns, Holland, Licuria, Davis, Didak, Thomas) in the forward line.
Irrespective......we should beat Carlton no matter what the weather.
That to me is the difference in wet weather football.
You also have to remember that a wet ground will reduce the ability of Carlton to get numbers back to help out their defenders against our forward line. We may not mark it cleanly but we have guys who can operate at ground level (Burns, Holland, Licuria, Davis, Didak, Thomas) in the forward line.
Irrespective......we should beat Carlton no matter what the weather.
i was confident that on a dry day,we could be able to win by 10+ goals. this could, and i really hope not coz itll make it too close, turn it now into a scrap. but if we're good enough, as collingwoodrow said, we'll beat them no matter the weather
Jabso
Brownlow Medallist
Off topic I am also a huge believer that there is no such thing as a X goal advantage when kicking with the wind. There may be an advantage but it varies. Especially in the MCG, but even old suburban grounds, players have trouble adjusting to kicking with the wind, as much as they do kicking against it. At the end of the day, as a result of the wind, one or two kicks a quarter may travel further and one ore two may fade to the wayside, not a real big advantage.
jabso said:
Agreed......you don't kick goals with a breeze behind you if you ain't got the pill. Playing against a strong breeze requires discipline....don't bomb it long, run with it as much as possible and keep possession. And as a forward....always get to the front.
Yeah i really do hope ur wrong, a loss to carlton before our tough 3 weeks could not be very unhelpful. I think we will do fine, just dont panic if they start coming at us, keep pocession use it well and kick some goals. I also favour the 2nd option. Look at the game against the lions in 2004 rnd 15 or 16 cant remember but 2nd game against them, we were the poorer team going into it, it was raining and hailing, but brisbane managed to beat us by 30 pts after we held them pretty close for a while.
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