West Coast are the only non VIC club to win a premiership without concessions

[doppleganger]

It is indeed possible Collingwood don't trade if it is pick 4 instead of pick 7. These sorts of hypothetical things are so hard. But once you undo that trade you massively expand out all these other differences in list management that make the entire process incredibly complicated. I was trying to keep it as simple as possible and only considered the single variable of priority picks existing or not existing.

The entire thing is always just a thought exercise though. Without the priority pick maybe all the clubs draft different players (because of different circumstances) and everything becomes moot.

The simple premise is that the priority pick meant Hawthorn was able to get BOTH Buddy and Roughy.

If no priority pick, they end up with one of them.

 

[Woolly Mammoth]

No club has ever won a flag in AFL history without at least two of the things you listed, and that is probably conservative,even if you exclude umpires since that is too subjective.

Collingwood 1990?

 

[Caligo]

The simple premise is that the priority pick meant Hawthorn was able to get BOTH Buddy and Roughy.

If no priority pick, they end up with one of them.

If the priority pick is the only variable then with the PP hawthorn have pick 2, 5, 7 and with no PP given out hawthorn have pick 2 and 4 (assuming everything else stays exactly the same). Hawthorn still get both talls and miss out on Lewis.

If you remove the Collingwood trade from the equation then hawthorn end up instead with pick 7 instead of pick 4 (unless you also want to unravel the North trade as well) and there is still a decent chance we get Franklin regardless, but at that point it starts getting very tricky. You need to look at who Collingwood, Adelaide and Carlton were likely to take (they are the three to jump ahead of us in the race for the second tall, probably bud).

There is absolutely no simple premise that the PP got us both bud and rough. Either you just use really basic language and say "the PP was 2 therefore roughhead is the PP" which is literally a fact but utterly fails to respond to any sort of analysis or you run some form of counterfactual, which tends to suggest hawthorn either gets both talls and no Lewis or one tall, Lewis, and significantly more unknown draft capital. Which is obviously a mess and so the easiest answer is just no Lewis.

 

[doppleganger]

If the priority pick is the only variable then with the PP hawthorn have pick 2, 5, 7 and with no PP given out hawthorn have pick 2 and 4 (assuming everything else stays exactly the same). Hawthorn still get both talls and miss out on Lewis.

If you remove the Collingwood trade from the equation then hawthorn end up instead with pick 7 instead of pick 4 (unless you also want to unravel the North trade as well) and there is still a decent chance we get Franklin regardless, but at that point it starts getting very tricky. You need to look at who Collingwood, Adelaide and Carlton were likely to take (they are the three to jump ahead of us in the race for the second tall, probably bud).

There is absolutely no simple premise that the PP got us both bud and rough. Either you just use really basic language and say "the PP was 2 therefore roughhead is the PP" which is literally a fact but utterly fails to respond to any sort of analysis or you run some form of counterfactual, which tends to suggest hawthorn either gets both talls and no Lewis or one tall, Lewis, and significantly more unknown draft capital. Which is obviously a mess and so the easiest answer is just no Lewis.

Pretty simple, if no PP Hawks wouldnt have two top5 picks.

You aint getting Buddy and Roughy unless you have two top5 picks.

 

[Freomaniac]

Not many teams win a flag with out a legal leg up full stop.
Academy , father son, priority pics, dodgy salaries dodgy umps or playing the grandfinal on your home ground sleeping in your own beds against non vic oppo

i guess freo wont win a flag then? lol

 

[Caligo]

Pretty simple, if no PP Hawks wouldnt have two top5 picks.

You aint getting Buddy and Roughy unless you have two top5 picks.

That isn't simple at all. Without priority picks we have picks 2 and 4 assuming all trades occur as they did. We are going round in circles.

 

[Freomaniac]

Edit: Caligo just beat me to it.

I see this quite a bit but it's not really an accurate summation of what happened.

In 2001 Hodge wasn't our priority pick, we traded to get that first pick off Fremantle.
In 2004 if you look at the draft and take out the 3 priority picks (Tigers, Hawks, Bulldogs) and then run the draft again we still get Roughead with our first pick, Buddy with out next pick and it would be Lewis that we miss out on.
In 2005 if you do the same thing we still get Ellis but miss out on Dowler.

Lewis was a good player and played in all 4 flags, not sure he was the difference though. It was more getting lucky with Mitchell at pick 36, players like Hodge, Roughead, Buddy and Rioli becoming stars, clever trading getting players like Gunston, Burgoyne, Lake, McEvoy, Gibson and even picking up players like Dew who had retired and Guerra who had been delisted.

So hawks like every Victorian side that won flags from 1996-2015, some how took advantage over a Poorly run Dockers admin... well done.

Sounds fair isnt it?

 

[Freomaniac]

Do you think Robert Walls at Brisbane was similar to Ron Barassi at Sydney and Paul Roos at Melbourne?
Laying the groundwork required for future success.

Yeah I do.

I know its Ironic being a dockers fan and talking about Premierships won (by other clubs).


I get pi**ed off when people talk about certain years before a team becomes decent.

No demons fan ever talks about Ron Barassi and his coaching stint at the demons from 1981-5. Barrassi had to slowly phase out the older players and other dead wood that wasnt gonna be there for the demons next final. Robbie Flower and his injury prone body had to carry that struggling demons side from 1981-85.

Demons eventually made finals from 1987-1991. In 1987 the demons made a prelim final. The sad story was Robbie Flower played only 3 finals, they ended up being the last 3 games in his career. I wished he went one more season, I dont think he cared about a 10-15 goal loss to the hawks in 1988.

The other coaching era no one talks about is Robert walls stint at Brisbanes era of 1991-1995. In 1991, Brisbane was an absolute mess but had some decent players. By 1995, Brisbane made finals and had a few talented blokes in that 20-23 year old range. Some of those young guys like Voss, Darryl White and Jason Akermanis were eventually in that 2001-3 premiership sides.

Paul Roos stint at the demons from 2014-6 was important too. They improved each season under Paul Roos. That demons side eventually won a flag in 2021.

 

[Caligo]

So hawks like every Victorian side that won flags from 1996-2015, some how took advantage over a Poorly run Dockers admin... well done.

Sounds fair isnt it?

It is fair. There was no manipulate or dodginess. And that trade that got pick 1 gave you two of the best young talls in the entire league. I would happily pay pick 1 and more today if I could get a king and cadman for it (which is loosely analogous to what croad and mcpharlin had shown at the time of the trade).

 

[Swanssince91]

You guys got Shuey as a PP in 2008 and Darling also as a PP in 2010

Judd as a PP

 

[Freomaniac]

They tanked pretty hard for Naitanui in 2008 didn't they?

Were top 4 the previous year then 11th the year after.

Seemed pretty out of place at the time, even acknowledging all the coke and meth etc.

But yes, this wasn't a 'concession'.

I dont think that The eagles tanked in 2008. There were deciding factors why the Eagles went from top 4 in 2007 to bottom 4 in 2008.

-Chris Judd Spent 6 seasons there. He was out of contract at the end of 2007 and decided to leave. He was on $600,000 a year at West coast, Carlton offered him $1.2 million a year for 5 seasons.

- Ben Cousins off field problems still continued. Hence Why the eagles got rid of him and the AFL de registered him.

- Daniel Kerr in 2008 missed half a season with injury.

So Had Daniel Kerr was fully fit in 2008 and played at least 16-18 games and Judd or Cousins was still on the eagles list in 2008, I dont think the eagles would finish bottom 4 in 2008.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

And then last in 2010 for pick 4 thanks to Gold Coast concessions but yeah we tanked two years earlier for second last in a wild out of place tumble down the ladder.

******* hell. This forum.

 

[Freomaniac]

And then last in 2010 for pick 4 thanks to Gold Coast concessions but yeah we tanked two years earlier for second last in a wild out of place tumble down the ladder.

******* hell. This forum.

crazy that West coast nailed the 2010 draft and Gold coast stuffed it despite Gold coast had 9 picks in the 1st round.

 

[Caligo]

crazy that West coast nailed the 2010 draft and Gold coast stuffed it despite Gold coast had 9 picks in the 1st round.

Lynch and Prestia were guns but GC couldn't hang on to them. Some solid role players in Caddy and swallow too. And I don't think drafting bennell was a mistake. He was clearly a huge talent, but it didn't work out. Maybe if he had gone to a club with stronger culture?

 

[Freomaniac]

Lynch and Prestia were guns but GC couldn't hang on to them. Some solid role players in Caddy and swallow too. And I don't think drafting bennell was a mistake. He was clearly a huge talent, but it didn't work out. Maybe if he had gone to a club with stronger culture?

I am glad you Brought up Harley Bennell. He had talent but sadly was Injury prone.

Actually there is a trend here.... I will mention certain players....

Daniel Wells, Scott Gumbleton, Anthony Morabito and Harley Bennell.

All 4 blokes were all taken in their respective drafts. All 4 came from Peel Thunder in the WAFL. All 4 had talent and all 4 had their careers stuffed because of injuries.

When Harley Bennell was traded to Freo, I was excited. I thought... Geeze he was good, might be that last piece to make another grand final in 2016.

Sadly Harley Bennells 4 years at the dockers from 2016-19 wasnt great with those injuries.

I still remember his 2016 season. He got calf or other leg related injuries. He didnt play one dockers game. It was that bad That I am certain it did hurt him Mentally. There is always convos about players and Mental health.

I still remember one Peel Thunder (Dockers WAFL ressies side) game in 2017, He rocked up Drunk at a Half time Huddle. He had his was walking with his Cousin Traye Bennell, who was and still is on Peels WAFL list.

I dont think Harley Bennell is a bad Person to be honest. But I think Harley Bennells constant injuries did affect his mental health. I dont think Bennell didnt hurt anyone or the club. He just wanted his body to be fully fit again and play footy. It was sad how injuries wrecked his career. He played 2 dockers games late in 2017. Those were the only 2 dockers games he played.

He was on the dockers list in 2018-19. He played like 20-25 Peel Thunder games from 2016-19. He was cut at the end of 2019.

I have no animosity towards Harley Bennell. I am glad he went to the demons and played a few games there.

 

[Caligo]

I am glad you Brought up Harley Bennell. He had talent but sadly was Injury prone.

Actually there is a trend here.... I will mention certain players....

Daniel Wells, Scott Gumbleton, Anthony Morabito and Harley Bennell.

All 4 blokes were all taken in their respective drafts. All 4 came from Peel Thunder in the WAFL. All 4 had talent and all 4 had their careers stuffed because of injuries.

When Harley Bennell was traded to Freo, I was excited. I thought... Geeze he was good, might be that last piece to make another grand final in 2016.

Sadly Harley Bennells 4 years at the dockers from 2016-19 wasnt great with those injuries.

I still remember his 2016 season. He got calf or other leg related injuries. He didnt play one dockers game. It was that bad That I am certain it did hurt him Mentally. There is always convos about players and Mental health.

I still remember one Peel Thunder (Dockers WAFL ressies side) game in 2017, He rocked up Drunk at a Half time Huddle. He had his was walking with his Cousin Traye Bennell, who was and still is on Peels WAFL list.

I dont think Harley Bennell is a bad Person to be honest. But I think Harley Bennells constant injuries did affect his mental health. I dont think Bennell didnt hurt anyone or the club. He just wanted his body to be fully fit again and play footy. It was sad how injuries wrecked his career. He played 2 dockers games late in 2017. Those were the only 2 dockers games he played.

He was on the dockers list in 2018-19. He played like 20-25 Peel Thunder games from 2016-19. He was cut at the end of 2019.

I have no animosity towards Harley Bennell. I am glad he went to the demons and played a few games there.

I wish we had seen the best of him. He was a favourite of mine from non hawthorn players. Could have been a top 5 player in the league and then some.

It didn't work out, but I don't believe he was a bad draft pick. Sometimes things just fail anyway.

 

[Tyberious Funk]

If the clubs think anything like their supporters do, then there is your answer.

Vic clubs try to beat other clubs, non-Vic clubs just want any non Vic club to win it.

Guessing you weren't alive in 1991.

Every single Victorian was barracking against West Coast.

 

[Freomaniac]

Guessing you weren't alive in 1991.

Every single Victorian was barracking against West Coast.

I was Born in 1987 so I couldnt even recall that. But I am not suprised.

Saying that, Cats at that point didnt win a flag since 1963. So it was a 29 or 30 year drought by 1992.

 

[RUNVS]

I was Born in 1987 so I couldnt even recall that. But I am not suprised.

Saying that, Cats at that point didnt win a flag since 1963. So it was a 29 or 30 year drought by 1992.

Wow you are an old man. Not like me, I am a young fresh 1988 baby.

 

[Freomaniac]

Wow you are an old man. Not like me, I am a young fresh 1988 baby.

you are in luck... you dont recall those putrid 1992-4 seasons. I hope you remember Plugga at the swans

 

[Freomaniac]

Apart from West Coast in 2006 and 2018, none of the non VIC clubs have won a premiership without concessions.
Lets look at all the other non VIC premierships.

West Coast 1992/1994 - start up concessions, hand picked quality from the WAFL.
Adelaide 1997/1998 - start up concessions, hand picked quality from the SANFL.
Brisbane 2001/2002/2003 - retention and cost of living allowances, hand picked quality from Fitzroy's list after the 'merger'.
Port 2004 - start up concessions, hand picked quality from the SANFL.
Sydney 2005/2012 - cost of living allowance, paying their players 10% more than other clubs were able to.

It's no coincidence the only non VIC club to win premierships without concessions happens to be the richest and most resourced club in the country, even then both those grand finals were decided by a coin flip and could have easily gone the other way.
Does this prove non VIC clubs are at a disadvantage compared to VIC clubs? Or does it prove non VIC clubs simply haven't been good enough and need to get better?

In my opinion it's a bit of both, non VIC clubs have had their chances eg Port and Brisbane in recent years but haven't taken them. At the same time non VIC clubs making poor decisions certainly doesn't help eg GWS sticking with Leon Cameron as their coach for as long as they did.

What are your thoughts?

i agree

 

[Taper]

Yeah I do.

I know its Ironic being a dockers fan and talking about Premierships won (by other clubs).


I get pi**ed off when people talk about certain years before a team becomes decent.

No demons fan ever talks about Ron Barassi and his coaching stint at the demons from 1981-5. Barrassi had to slowly phase out the older players and other dead wood that wasnt gonna be there for the demons next final. Robbie Flower and his injury prone body had to carry that struggling demons side from 1981-85.

Demons eventually made finals from 1987-1991. In 1987 the demons made a prelim final. The sad story was Robbie Flower played only 3 finals, they ended up being the last 3 games in his career. I wished he went one more season, I dont think he cared about a 10-15 goal loss to the hawks in 1988.

The other coaching era no one talks about is Robert walls stint at Brisbanes era of 1991-1995. In 1991, Brisbane was an absolute mess but had some decent players. By 1995, Brisbane made finals and had a few talented blokes in that 20-23 year old range. Some of those young guys like Voss, Darryl White and Jason Akermanis were eventually in that 2001-3 premiership sides.

Paul Roos stint at the demons from 2014-6 was important too. They improved each season under Paul Roos. That demons side eventually won a flag in 2021.

Hinkley did similar at Port.
Took them to one kick from a grand final in 2014 which is remarkable when you remember how bad Port were in 2011.

 

[PhatBoy]

The entire competition is predicated on the idea that you be s**t, and get rewarded for it.

Be even shitter, you put your hand out and get rewarded more.

Anyone whinging about minor or differing concessions when the basis of the biggest influx of talent into the player pool each year is built on getting rewarded more for being worse has a poor case IMO.

 

[LordLucifer]

Apart from West Coast in 2006 and 2018, none of the non VIC clubs have won a premiership without concessions.
Lets look at all the other non VIC premierships.

West Coast 1992/1994 - start up concessions, hand picked quality from the WAFL.
Adelaide 1997/1998 - start up concessions, hand picked quality from the SANFL.
Brisbane 2001/2002/2003 - retention and cost of living allowances, hand picked quality from Fitzroy's list after the 'merger'.
Port 2004 - start up concessions, hand picked quality from the SANFL.
Sydney 2005/2012 - cost of living allowance, paying their players 10% more than other clubs were able to.

It's no coincidence the only non VIC club to win premierships without concessions happens to be the richest and most resourced club in the country, even then both those grand finals were decided by a coin flip and could have easily gone the other way.
Does this prove non VIC clubs are at a disadvantage compared to VIC clubs? Or does it prove non VIC clubs simply haven't been good enough and need to get better?

In my opinion it's a bit of both, non VIC clubs have had their chances eg Port and Brisbane in recent years but haven't taken them. At the same time non VIC clubs making poor decisions certainly doesn't help eg GWS sticking with Leon Cameron as their coach for as long as they did.

What are your thoughts?

Care factor = 0 !!

 

[Taper]

The entire competition is predicated on the idea that you be s**t, and get rewarded for it.

Be even shitter, you put your hand out and get rewarded more.

Anyone whinging about minor or differing concessions when the basis of the biggest influx of talent into the player pool each year is built on getting rewarded more for being worse has a poor case IMO.

Ken Hinkley is a great coach because his sides never bottom out.