Opinion Will we make the finals? Do your ladder predictor.

[Mr Blicavs]

Here’s how I think the ladder will end up, but what would I know.......I haven’t picjed 9 winners all year

 

[JohnZ]

These are our possible finals matchups week 1

All Scenarios assume Geelong win v Gold Coast, Collingwood win v Freo, WCE win v Brisbane, Port win by less than 20 points if they win

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
SYD [6] v GEE [7]

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
HAW [6] v GEE [7]



Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
GWS [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
GWS [5] v GEE [8]


If all outcomes are of equal weighting (they're not, but I don't have the willpower to give each outcome a weighting) we are a 1/2 chance to play Melbourne Week 1, 1/4 chance to play GWS and an 1/8 chance to play Sydney or Hawthorn.

Given I believe our % will be higher than Melbourne's after round 23 (requires a 60 point win against Gold Coast), and that I believe Melbourne will beat GWS, we will be playing Melbourne Week 1. And if we win our EF we will play the winner of Hawthorn v Sydney (winner of that game goes 4th), because I find it highly unlikely either team will beat Richmond in the QF.

 

[Mr Meow]

^ So we just need a Bulldogs-like run where we get to the grand final by beating opposition at their home ground 3x, including two interstate trips. Except then we have to play a properly dominant MCG tenant in the big dance. Easy peasy.

 

[JohnZ]

^ So we just need a Bulldogs-like run where we get to the grand final by beating opposition at their home ground 3x, including two interstate trips. Except then we have to play a properly dominant MCG tenant in the big dance. Easy peasy.

Melbourne at the MCG (We've beaten them twice, think we would do it again)

Hawthorn at the MCG (Both games very winnable, especially with a ruckman on the ground) OR
Sydney at the SCG (won that game comfortably, no reason we couldn't do it again)

West Coast at Optus (Almost snatched that game, it's winnable)

Richmond at MCG (we're the team who've come closest to beating them at the MCG)

I agree it would be very bulldogs esque, but that's what playing finals is, a lot of skill, a lot of luck.

 

[Grimoz]

He does have this tendency to get soreness though.
He is much needed and wanted in our best 22.

Tell that to the MC

 

[Ray Donovan]

Here the scenarios, assuming other teams win as expected.

Sydney & Melb win:

View attachment 545780

Sydney & GWS win, and we win by about 50pts (we overtake Melb %)

View attachment 545783

Sydney and GWS win, and we win small
(don’t overtake Melb %)

View attachment 545784

Hawks & Melb win

View attachment 545788

Hawks and GWS win, and we win small (don’t overtake Melb %)

View attachment 545798

Hawks & GWS win, and we win by about 50pts (we overtake Melb %)

View attachment 545801


Scenario 2 or 4 could see us play MCG in weeks 1 and 2 (even 3 ) if we kept winning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nice post I wanted to do that except I was afraid someone would ask if Collingwood lose and hawthorn win lol

I backed Melbourne to win the remaining two games earlier so I will stick with it. My original thought process was gws lose both. Hawthorn win both. Sydney will split, Melbourne win both.

 

[Ray Donovan]

These are our possible finals matchups week 1

All Scenarios assume Geelong win v Gold Coast, Collingwood, win v Freo, WCE win v Brisbane, Port win by less than 20 points if they win

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
SYD [6] v GEE [7]

Geelong % > Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
HAW [6] v GEE [7]



Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne beat GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
MEL [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn beat Sydney
GWS [5] v GEE [8]

Geelong % < Melbourne %, Melbourne def by GWS, Hawthorn def by Sydney
GWS [5] v GEE [8]


If all outcomes are of equal weighting (they're not, but I don't have the willpower to give each outcome a weighting) we are a 1/2 chance to play Melbourne Week 1, 1/4 chance to play GWS and an 1/8 chance to play Sydney or Hawthorn.

Given I believe our % will be higher than Melbourne's after round 23 (requires a 60 point win against Gold Coast), and that I believe Melbourne will beat GWS, we will be playing Melbourne Week 1. And if we win our EF we will play the winner of Hawthorn v Sydney (winner of that game goes 4th), because I find it highly unlikely either team will beat Richmond in the QF.

Very nice post John but to be honest let's just pump the brakes going deep into finals calculations. West coast, Collingwood, gws injury ravaged at the moment. But I honestly think on the right day anyone of those teams inside the 8 could knock off Richmond. They are the best side by 10% I think I could throw a blanket over the rest being basically even depends who is available injury wise and where it's played will decide a lot of these games.

I think the ladder going into the final round gives you a good indication of how close all these teams are. Its really not a season where the top 4 has dominated it's been in flux positions still to be decided. And let's not forget the bye in between finals makes a difference in the availability of players GWS will get some back, West coast, Collingwood

 

[Mr Meow]

Melbourne at the MCG (We've beaten them twice, think we would do it again)

Hawthorn at the MCG (Both games very winnable, especially with a ruckman on the ground) OR
Sydney at the SCG (won that game comfortably, no reason we couldn't do it again)

West Coast at Optus (Almost snatched that game, it's winnable)

Richmond at MCG (we're the team who've come closest to beating them at the MCG)

I agree it would be very bulldogs esque, but that's what playing finals is, a lot of skill, a lot of luck.

Good points, it's always been a weak year and many sides have big injury issues.

Sydney have the bizarre bad record at the SCG.

Melbourne are finals newbies.

Only teams I'd say without question marks, and have beaten us 4-0, are Richmond and Hawthorn. Not that I think this Hawthorn are incredibly strong, but they are fairly healthy and strong performers at the G. Richmond are definitely gettable, but it's still going to be a major coup for someone to knock them off.

Anyway, we'll see. Even with our poor finals record, gotta be in it to win it, and this is another year where going deep is possible for anyone given the circumstances.

 

[crows dude]

Just make sure you win this week. GC at the cattery so surely its a win but stranger things have happend and I cant bare to see Port in the 8 which they will be if you lose as I think Port will beat Essendon Friday night.

 

[catpremier 07]

Just make sure you win this week. GC at the cattery so surely its a win but stranger things have happend and I cant bare to see Port in the 8 which they will be if you lose as I think Port will beat Essendon Friday night.

Port will lose to Essendon. They are trash

 

[Landgraft]

Port will lose to Essendon. They are trash

Both are trash

 

[dazbroncos]

Interestingly Port Adelaide play Essendon on Friday night and if Port lose we officially secure finals regardless of our result the next day.

If that’s the case I wonder if we’ll see a late change or two on Saturday?

If its 100% we are in.

Yes. Id rest Selwood and Kelly. Bring in Chook and one other.

Basing this on Selwood has played most games and could use a rest IMO and 2 weeks would freshen him up. And he's the one player that ive rarely seen not get going after a break. 2 hits and he's switched back on.

And I REALLY want to see Chook get a go at this level. GCS is full of kids - not like Tigers MF full of bigger bodies - and IMO Chook has earned the bump up.

Wont happen but you raised a good point.

GO Catters

 

[Max Caddy]

Do we really want Kelly and Selwood having 2 weeks off before the finals?

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Here’s how I think the ladder will end up, but what would I know.......I haven’t picjed 9 winners all year

View attachment 545931

Jesus you’d hope not. 3 interstate trips in a row!

 

[Turbocat]

If its 100% we are in.

Yes. Id rest Selwood and Kelly. Bring in Chook and one other.

Basing this on Selwood has played most games and could use a rest IMO and 2 weeks would freshen him up. And he's the one player that ive rarely seen not get going after a break. 2 hits and he's switched back on.

And I REALLY want to see Chook get a go at this level. GCS is full of kids - not like Tigers MF full of bigger bodies - and IMO Chook has earned the bump up.

Wont happen but you raised a good point.

GO Catters

Just how much do we want to go down that path I wonder... Old mindset play them all play them hard etc. the other way... pull pull Danger and Joel and GA etc.. play the VFL side.. just take on injury risk at all. Would Selwood really be happy to do that? Does Gary want to play V his old side or was he happy with his 37 and 3 goals last time

Certainly getting a 4 week injury now in a game that is meaningless would be just another flapjack on the excuse stack if we fail.

Henderson and Taylor probably need games... and I suspect Hawk..we should keep him playing ..nothing is as invigorating as confidence for him..

CC... yes not a bad idea. He is just as likely to come in and show why he was picked before Worpell as he is to come in and find it tough going. Will Gold Coast go hard as it their last game... or did losing their last home game just about have them cooked.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Do we really want Kelly and Selwood having 2 weeks off before the finals?

No. Pretty pointless giving players a rest when there is a bye the following week.

 

[Turbocat]

tough to work it all out so many variables..... this one be a finals outcome for the age... to take in the HAwka when we or they are not really at their creamy best...

 

[Max Milburn]

I just did my finals predictor: win against Gold Coast and we will play finals.

 

[GFrost]

Apologies for not reading the thread but only have about two minutes. What would have to happen for us to miss finals?

 

[fpm84]

Apologies for not reading the thread but only have about two minutes. What would have to happen for us to miss finals?

Port Adelaide beat Essendon
and
Gold Coast beat Geelong

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Small margins in the end. Appears as though Jenkins poster goal will get us into finals.

 

[Mr Meow]

Small margins in the end. Appears as though Jenkins poster goal will get us into finals.

I would say I feel sorry for them. Then I remember how prickish their crowd and players have been the last few times we've visited AO. It sits quite well with me I have to say.

 

[Max Caddy]

I would say I feel sorry for them. Then I remember how prickish their crowd and players have been the last few times we've visited AO. It sits quite well with me I have to say.

Yeah quite happy with that little backwater town having no teams in the finals.

 

[fpm84]

Small margins in the end. Appears as though Jenkins poster goal will get us into finals.

How about J McGovern's goal after the siren two weeks ago?

Mind you, we've had our own sliding doors moments:

- Gawn missing a sitter in the last 10 seconds of round 1
- Defensive mix up sees Zuthrie on Roughead at the death in round 2
- Taylor's kick after the siren
- Tuohy's kick after the siren
- Gaz's missed shot on the run with 90 seconds left v Richmond

 

[Ray Donovan]

Just make sure you win this week. GC at the cattery so surely its a win but stranger things have happend and I cant bare to see Port in the 8 which they will be if you lose as I think Port will beat Essendon Friday night.

Port gave up last week. I think west coast cooked the soul of them. And the adelaide goal post still has a mark on it