Will we win?

[detox]

I want the saints to win purely because of their drought, but i can't see them beating you guys, 3 consecutive GF's i think the experience will be too much, and you guys will be calmer and cooler when it counts. They peaked to early, im thinking an even 3 goal win to you guys.

 

[ilovegussy]

I hope Geelong win

 

[Belisarius]

We have seen the best St Kilda has to offer. It's very good but predictable and they are not at their peak now. There is NO Plan B. This is the same old Saints but with a better defensive mindset that Leigh Tudor has given them.
Geelong have another gear still.
Expect to see it on Saturday.

Probably a good call. I would have preferred a dry day game because I am confident we can win regardless of the weather. Just would see a better game if it was dry - a better spectacle for the DVD I will watch again and again over the coming decade.

However Geelong does not fear rain and it may even help us re nullifying Riewoldt and Kosi. Hawkins looks good in the wet from what I have seen. You would also expect Geelong to have better crumbers up forward if Ablett and Chappy play a fair bit of time there. If Varcoe, Wojo and Byrnes play we could actually have more leg speed than our opposition. Go Catters ! Geelong by 3 plus goals regardless of the weather conditions.

 

[James1970]

Actually, when was the last time the Saints played in wet, windy, horrendous conditions? If it's going to be as bad as they say, Jesus, the fat lady may be coming in earlier than 2007!

 

[Axl the great]

I said in a post on the Pies board that i dont give a crap who wins now we are out.
Then something occured to me, Stephen Milne with a medal around his neck smiling would make me sick to my stomach.
Now im am going so far as to put up Cats colours for my GF BBQ, please please Geelong smash them and ruin the Saints forever!

 

[watermelonslice]

Actually, when was the last time the Saints played in wet, windy, horrendous conditions? If it's going to be as bad as they say, Jesus, the fat lady may be coming in earlier than 2007!

I've been told round 5 v Port Adelaide. The scoreline was 36 to 102 that day. I'm not all that confident Geelong would have a significant advantage if we played in the wet. Geelong smashed Lions in the wet in rnd 5, and Freo in rnd 22. (Any other time we've played in the wet this season?)

The key to beating St Kilda's defensive pressure is by moving the ball efficiently and quickly through their zones. This would be harder to achieve if the ball is slippery. More likely to be skill errors which could lead to turnovers.

On the plus side, it'll be a lot harder for them to hit Riewoldt and Kosi in the wet.

 

[winty]

I've been told round 5 v Port Adelaide. The scoreline was 36 to 102 that day. I'm not all that confident Geelong would have a significant advantage if we played in the wet. Geelong smashed Lions in the wet in rnd 5, and Freo in rnd 22. (Any other time we've played in the wet this season?)

The key to beating St Kilda's defensive pressure is by moving the ball efficiently and quickly through their zones. This would be harder to achieve if the ball is slippery. More likely to be skill errors which could lead to turnovers.

On the plus side, it'll be a lot harder for them to hit Riewoldt and Kosi in the wet.

As odd as it may sound since the game was played at the Dome, it was raining in the 2nd half of the NAB Cup grand final too.

I think a key is getting off to a good start. The Saints jumped us in Round 14, and we were playing catch-up all day. We'll have 21 players who have run out on the last Saturday in September. St.Kilda will have three or four, and most the others I suggest would be a tad nervous. After all, I guess you could count on one hand how many times the Saints have played in front of 95,000 plus people over the last few years.

If the Saints get a little overawed by the occasion, we need to make amends and take full advantage of any nervousness. It would also help if Mooney and Hawkins kick a goal or two early too. Not only for the scoreboard pressure it will put on the Saints, but only the confidence of our key forwards. If they slot a few early, they should hopefully have the confidence that they'll be able to slot them all day.

 

[vinum coupe]

Then something occured to me, Stephen Milne with a medal around his neck smiling would make me sick to my stomach.

tell me about it!

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Cats to come out settled and kick the first 3 or 4. Saints to be nervous and one of their players (prolly Baker) will try to knock ablett or ling out. Cats to become unsettled and pissed off. Mooney to break goddards jaw.
Cats by 35

.

 

[BIGANT]

Paging Mr Lid. Mr Lid to BFF.

Dear god where is the lid?

i hope we can get up, i really think this is a fantastic group and they have allready delivered us a mighty flag..., i hope they can muster one more gargantuan effort and cement themselves as one of the most talented, driven and commited sides this magnificent club has ever assembled. Lets not underestimate the feeling we will get if Bobby gets to hand Harls the Cup, it would be absolutely inspiring, and we can feel redeemed from the anomaly that was the 08 Grandfinal.

CARN THE CATTERS!!!!

I've got glassy eye's just thinking about Bobby Davis passing the cup on to tomali...

 

[winty]

I posted this elsewhere, but I'll post it again here.

In 2007, we finished the H&A season with an 18-4 record
In 2009, we finished the H&A season with an 18-4 record

In 2007, we defeated Collingwood in the Preliminary Final
In 2009, we defeated Collingwood in the Preliminary Final

In 2007, the last time we played our GF opponent, we lost by a single figure margin after trailing for most of the day. Despite a late rally, the game was decided by a goal kicked in the last minute.
In 2009, the last time we played our GF opponent, we lost by a single figure margin after trailing all day. Despite a late rally, the game was decided by a goal kicked in the last minute.

In 2007, Jimmy Bartel won the Brownlow Medal with 29 votes. The runner up polled 22 votes, and Bartel had the medal wrapped up with 2 rounds to go.
in 2009, Gary Ablett won the Brownlow Medal with 30 votes. The runner up polled 22 votes, and Ablett had the medal wrapped up with 2 rounds to go.

In 2007, Geelong won the Premiership by a record margin.
In 2009, ??

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

You love it, Winty

I love it too

 

[stfan]

Actually, when was the last time the Saints played in wet, windy, horrendous conditions? If it's going to be as bad as they say, Jesus, the fat lady may be coming in earlier than 2007!

Hate to disappoint but in all the wet weather games this year the Saints have played very well in the wet/wind and have had amongst our best wins.

Bad conditions at AAMI and in Tassie were dealt with easily.

Also in the H&A our % was actually greater for games played away from Etihad than at at it.

Plus in the wet, if it is 4 quarter slog the fittest team will have an edge. Virtually no Saints players have had their seasons interrupted by injury. Gardiner is the main exception and even he has played throughout the year.


I am expecting a real battle. One team at various stages will break free and kick some goals..and whichever does it the most will come out on top.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Good post winty.

The curse I wan to break is that the last 4 times (92,94,95,08) we have played the Bulldogs in the finals (and won), we have went on to lose the Grand Final.

 

[gabstar]

We'll shit it in.

What he said GO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[fpm84]

I posted this elsewhere, but I'll post it again here.

In 2007, we finished the H&A season with an 18-4 record
In 2009, we finished the H&A season with an 18-4 record

In 2007, we defeated Collingwood in the Preliminary Final
In 2009, we defeated Collingwood in the Preliminary Final

In 2007, the last time we played our GF opponent, we lost by a single figure margin after trailing for most of the day. Despite a late rally, the game was decided by a goal kicked in the last minute.
In 2009, the last time we played our GF opponent, we lost by a single figure margin after trailing all day. Despite a late rally, the game was decided by a goal kicked in the last minute.

In 2007, Jimmy Bartel won the Brownlow Medal with 29 votes. The runner up polled 22 votes, and Bartel had the medal wrapped up with 2 rounds to go.
in 2009, Gary Ablett won the Brownlow Medal with 30 votes. The runner up polled 22 votes, and Ablett had the medal wrapped up with 2 rounds to go.

In 2007, Geelong won the Premiership by a record margin.
In 2009, ??

Maybe we should bring Stokes back in just so he can appear to do his knee in the first 10 minutes and make a miraculous recovery?

I will tear up so much if Bobby gets to present the cup to Tom and Bomber. Bobby Davis is one of the sweetest people I've ever had the fortune of meeting. I remember having a long chat to him at a pre-season training session in 2007, and he was telling me that he thought Varcoe would be 'something special.'

 

[Strangled Cat]

Will we win? I can;t say for sure, but here's my take on the game. The two best teams by far this year has been St Kilda and Geelong, so it's obviously great to see them playing off. I have to admit, for a while there I thought it would be Dejavu of '99 where Essendon and North Melbourne were the best two teams in the comp that year but Essendon were knocked out in one of the most memorable Prelims ever.

Defence vs Attack.

St Kilda were renowned for their tackling pressure all year. They stifled their oppostion, causing turnovers which usually resulted in a goal for them. Their pressure on the ball carrier, and the discipline of their game plan was A1. "Lyons Cage" as it's affectionately known as has been solid all year, and almost been impenetrable. Geelong have had thier play on at all cost style for the last 3 years now. It has served them extremely well, has made them a very exciting team to watch when taking it through the corridor. Their run has been almost unstoppable, and really have only ever been dominated once since this adopted game plan, which occured agaisnt Collingwood in Rnd 9, 2008. I see this as similar to the paradoxical conundrum of when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

We have already had a taste of what's to come. The round 14 game this year between these two sides was arguably one of the best games in the modern era. Will we see the same thing happen again? Maybe. But there's are a few things to note first. Firstly, team structures. Geelong had injuries to 3 key players (Ottens, Johnson and Kelly) who are all back in the side now, and who all contributed with solid games last week. The other is the venue.

Much has been made of St Kilda not having experience at the MCG, and that the wide wings will make their 'flooding' type of play difficult and maye gte them exposed. Considering they beat the team in the first qualifying final whcih has more MCG expereince than any other this year, and who play along the wings more than any other team, quite convincngly in the end, even if on the scoreboard it only showed 28 points, tells me that this is a non issue.

The other thing is that Geelong like to run through the corridor, so effectivly the Saints have a lot less room to have to guard. Normally this would play into their hands, but I think with the speed that Geelong can not only run through the centre, but flick the ball around to effectively play keepings off, may expose the saints weakness. If the Saints can't effectively stop Geelongs run via pressure, they certainly won't be able to match them with leg speed, and I think this maybe cause St Kilda massive problems.

One last question mark that hangs over this game to me is how well Nick Rewolt pulls up. He has been instrumental and inspirational all year for the Saints. He is the heart and soul of that club, and has single handedly willed them over the line to get them to the position that they are in today. But how will his knee hold up? Last week seeing him hobble like that would be enough for any saints fans to get cold sweats. I think if St Kilda are to be a chance, he needs to have a blinder.

Everything all points to this being one of the best Grand Finals of all time. But rarely when a game like this is billed up to be this big does it actually deliver on it's promise. Round 14 delivered more than anyone could have hoped for. Whether or not that will happen again, no one knows. But what I am sure about is that both teams will be hungry - desperate if you will, to be able to raise that cup above their head on Saturday afternoon.
When you look back and analyse it clinically, you can say that the Saints are where Geelong were a couple of years ago. Whilst Geelong, having been the best team for the last 3 years (probably equal best this year), have the emotional burden of last year still fresh in their minds, and knowing that aother loss in a GF would almost certainly spell and end to their dominant era, it's harder to say who's under more pressure.

The fact that the Cats have been here 3 years in a row, and that they are savagely hungry to avenge last year, and combine that with the fact that they've got a full fresh list at their disposal, it's hard not to back them. But the Saints have been awesome all year, a well coached and well disciplined side, with eveyr player exactly intune with what their role is. To dsimiss the Saints purely on their lack of GF expereince would be folly, as we all know what happened in Geelongs first GF in '07. Are the Saints on about to start their Dynasty? Or are the Cats so hungry to get one more cup that nothing will stop them? Only time will tell, but for mine, consdiering evertything, it's just hard clinically and emotionally for me to not back them.

Prediction: Geelong by 16 points.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Hate to disappoint but in all the wet weather games this year the Saints have played very well in the wet/wind and have had amongst our best wins.

Bad conditions at AAMI and in Tassie were dealt with easily.

Also in the H&A our % was actually greater for games played away from Etihad than at at it.

Plus in the wet, if it is 4 quarter slog the fittest team will have an edge. Virtually no Saints players have had their seasons interrupted by injury. Gardiner is the main exception and even he has played throughout the year.


I am expecting a real battle. One team at various stages will break free and kick some goals..and whichever does it the most will come out on top.

I see the wet weather issue very differently. I think it will suit Geelong.

The Cats are an excellent wet weather side. There are a handful of reasons for this. Firstly, Geelong play (and train) in Geelong, so they are more than used to windy and wet conditions. St Kilda, on the other hand, play a disproportionate amount of football in a stadium with a roof. Secondly, Geelongs style of play adapts well to wet conditions - namely, linking up and moving the football by hand (which is often more important in wet weather than the old clique of 'kicking it long'). Thirdly, Geelong is a very physical and big bodied team, well suited to the in-close game that comes with wet and heavy grounds (though, the Saints are strong in this sense too). Fourthly, Geelong aren't as dependent as the Saints on tall forwards taking overhead marks and converting for scoring options.

I've not seen Geelong loose a game of footballl in the wet for a long time. Im sure they will be confident of winning wet or dry, but i tend to view rain as a bonus.

On top of that i disagree with your suggestion that Geelongs long injury list this year makes it a less fit team. Geelong have been incredibly cautious with injury management to make sure players come into this finals series as fresh as possible. Look at how they ran out the Collingwood game, for instance! I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this is the freshest and fittest i have seen the Geelong side all year.

 

[gabstar]

Cats to come out settled and kick the first 3 or 4. Saints to be nervous and one of their players (prolly Baker) will try to knock ablett or ling out. Cats to become unsettled and pissed off. Mooney to break goddards jaw.
Cats by 35

.

What he said GO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cats by 40 points

 

[Goedy]

seems as if you think its already won, your favourites so you should win, but i guess you were favourites going into the Round 14 game and we know what happend there.

good luck this week, may the best team win.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

seems as if you think its already won, your favourites so you should win, but i guess you were favourites going into the Round 14 game and we know what happend there.

good luck this week, may the best team win.

If true that surprises me. I'd have thought the Saints would have been the favorites for that match given their form and Geelong having a few outs at the time.

Anyway, bookies aside, i agree whole-heartedly. May the best team win. Both will be a worthy premier.

 

[ZosoCat]

the punters can go for who they like but this game is 50/50 all the way. I like that's it's going to rain as I really think it will favor geelong but than again the saints have played so well this year.

I think our GF experience will be great and put us over the line hopefully by a few goals But a win is a win!!! GO YOU CATS!!!!! I COULDNT BARE ANOTHER GF LOSS!

 

[graps]

Geelong have dumped Collingwood out of 2 finals series in 3 years and humiliated Port in emphatic fashion. It's not a hard choice for who to get behind.
Smash St Draft Picks for the few clubs who refuse to bottom out.

Honestly, Geelong are the only team I've ever watched smash the Crows and almost enjoyed the display (Ablett was amazing at AAMI this year).
All the best for Saturday, and hopefully another well deserved flag.

Go Cats!

 

[H2F]

Your two weaknesses going into the 2008 Grand Final which made me confident we could beat you were IMO

1) Legs to play 4 quarters at Hawthorn's unbelievable 2008 intensity

2) Heart

Well this year I think St Kilda are the team who has question marks over their ability to run out games.

As for heart, well your team got up off it's arse this year despite all the set-backs and has really grown.

You are tougher now than ever before, and this day will define your team.

I think you will win.

 

[a_fighting_fury]

seems as if you think its already won, your favourites so you should win, but i guess you were favourites going into the Round 14 game and we know what happend there.

good luck this week, may the best team win.

tYeah That's right, they came back from 5 goals down with no Ottens and no Johnson - and lost by a solitary kick...

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Cats easily this Saturday.