Analysis Winning games by small margins - how do we keep doing it?

[76woodenspooners]

As of the round 21 game we’re second on the ladder with 106%. That’s gotta be some kind of record.

We’ve won 11 on the trot. And it doesn’t matter whether we’re playing the basket-case team on the bottom of the ladder (North) or the second placed team (Melbourne), we have a knack of winning by a kick or two.

Whether it’s the media or opposition fans or even sometimes opposition players, they all put it down to random luck, or umpiring luck, or just plain arsey luck. And yet we keep steam rolling through.

As those of us who have watched Collingwood games in 2022, we know it’s not all luck that makes us feel like we’re watching the same movie week after week after week …

… like one of those goodies v badies thrillers that gets our pulse racing whilst wondering who is going to prevail ?!?!! - eventhough the goodies somehow prevail every time …

… and this one has many more sequels than the Rocky franchise …

… so how specifically do we do it?

 

[Matt_352]

Fly. The players would run through a brick wall for him.

 

[Pistol Night]

Fly. The players would run through a brick wall for him.

Literally for Bruzzy

 

[jonbe54]

As of the round 21 game we’re second on the ladder with 106%. That’s gotta be some kind of record.

We’ve won 11 on the trot. And it doesn’t matter whether we’re playing the basket-case team on the bottom of the ladder (North) or the second placed team (Melbourne), we have a knack of winning by a kick or two.

Whether it’s the media or opposition fans or even sometimes opposition players, they all put it down to random luck, or umpiring luck, or just plain arsey luck. And yet we keep steam rolling through.

As those of us who have watched Collingwood games in 2022, we know it’s not all luck that makes us feel like we’re watching the same movie week after week after week …

… like one of those goodies v badies thrillers that gets our pulse racing whilst wondering who is going to prevail ?!?!! - eventhough the goodies somehow prevail every time …

… and this one has many more sequels than the Rocky franchise …

… so how specifically do we do it?

Fly has said a number of times that they specifically devote training time to it - we actually train for these scenarios every training session.

 

[76woodenspooners]

For years I have shaken my head at fellow supporters who have written a player off after their debut game, or within 10 games or 20 games. It takes time and experience for players to develop and contribute. (Jayden Stephenson being the rare and highly talented exception, winning the rising star with what at the time was the highest ever vote count).

But that was under Buckley.

Under Fly - an experienced development coach - we’ve seen new and young players come in and quickly make an impact.

- Carmichael was drafted in this mid-season draft, and whilst he is clearly quite raw, it’s also clear to all why he holds his spot.

- Johnson has been a revelation, kicking 10 goals in his first 4 games.

- Ginnivan was some average no-name rookie prior to this season and now he’s a second highest goal scorer.

- Murphy has been a revelation.

- Lipinski couldn’t get a game at the Bulldogs

- Krueger couldn’t get a game at Geelong but impressed before he got injured.

- Cox was on the scrap heap and written off by all, and now he has been an essential part of our winning streak.

Fly / The new coaching group have been able to get the best out of players in a very short space of time.

 

[domus]

I'm still not sure what it all means. Are we yet to hit our straps but still finding a way to win or are we simply a gritty side finding a way to win but incapable of going to another level?

 

[Pistol Night]

I'm still not sure what it all means. Are we yet to hit our straps but still finding a way to win or are we simply a gritty side finding a way to win but incapable of going to another level?

We went to a pretty high level Friday night whilst staying true to the gameplan.

 

[manicpie]

I think a big reason is that we play a super efficient style of football. Although it may look like all duck and no dinner, no team has been able to work out our game plan. We seem to be able to switch attacking avenues without the opposition knowing where we are going. PS, the only reason we aer not blowing teams away is that we lack a real classy midfield

 

[76woodenspooners]

I reckon it involves a bunch of things …

(1) The coaches get the best out of individual players (winning behaviour / getting better every day). Strong culture. Players believe they can win. They like winning.

(2) Effective communication: every player understands their role and plays their role. Mick used to say it would take 3 seasons to build that connection, and Fly seems to have made good progress on that within one season.

(3) Fitness and energy levels - our players seem to be able to run over the opposition in the last quarter every week.

(4) Managing risk. Imaging gambling on the toss of a coin with someone - and just biding your time until you find yourself ahead and then shutting the game down and not playing the game anymore. I reckon this is one reason why we keep winning by small margins.

(5) Our opponents under-estimate us. We haven’t blown away teams this year. Our opponents think we’re beatable, so we get our opponents at their best. They push us, but we respond that little bit harder, get over them, and shut down the game.

(6) A little bit of luck … a bounce of the ball, a ball hitting the post … but we make our own luck. Rolling the dice is a game of chance, but if you roll the dice a lot more times than your opponent then you increase your chance of rolling more sixes (see Point 4)

 

[Aussie pie]

You know what, just keep replying to all those people saying it’s luck by agreeing and laughing. Also say we are getting a great run by the umpires, we got an easy draw and that the AFL want us in the finals to boost crowd number to increase their profits. This will do their heads in

 

[jonbe54]

I reckon it involves a bunch of things …

(1) The coaches get the best out of individual players (winning behaviour / getting better every day). Strong culture. Players believe they can win. They like winning.

(2) Effective communication: every player understands their role and plays their role. Mick used to say it would take 3 seasons to build that connection, and Fly seems to have made good progress on that within one season.

(3) Fitness and energy levels - our players seem to be able to run over the opposition in the last quarter every week.

(4) Managing risk. Imaging gambling on the toss of a coin with someone - and just biding your time until you find yourself ahead and then shutting the game down and not playing the game anymore. I reckon this is one reason why we keep winning by small margins.

(5) Our opponents under-estimate us. We haven’t blown away teams this year. Our opponents think we’re beatable, so we get our opponents at their best. They push us, but we respond that little bit harder, get over them, and shut down the game.

(6) A little bit of luck … a bounce of the ball, a ball hitting the post … but we make our own luck. Rolling the dice is a game of chance, but if you roll the dice a lot more times than your opponent then you increase your chance of rolling more sixes (see Point 4)

Total agreement except for the bolded part of 3.

Malthouse was ALWAYS about Malthouse and ONLY Malthouse - saying it takes three years is just another way of explaining to the hoi poloi just how hard he has to work to achieve it.

 

[gouki88]

Total agreement except for the bolded part of 3.

Malthouse was ALWAYS about Malthouse and ONLY Malthouse - saying it takes three years is just another way of explaining to the hoi poloi just how hard he has to work to achieve it.

It's as if the final year of Mick has made you blind to his entire career.

 

[Pistol Night]

It's as if the final year of Mick has made you blind to his entire career.

Its a shame Mick gets rubbished for his Carlton debacle also. His first years with us were unbelievable. We had no right to push Brisbane in 2002

 

[gouki88]

Its a shame Mick gets rubbished for his Carlton debacle also. His first years with us were unbelievable. We had no right to push Brisbane in 2002

I give him credit for sabotaging Carlton. Sent them into irrelevancy for a few years. Thanks Mick!

 

[ipswichpies]

I think the Melbourne match was very much what we can expect from the finals huge pressure and I have been thinking all these close finishes will stand us in good stead for the finals. The Dees were certainly ready for us friday night and they really wanted to win but because of those close finishes for us they could not get it done.

I think the new fitness coach Waite is doing a fantastic job the best since the Butterfant years no doubt we may not be the most talented team but we are the fittest because of him and the coaches. Another thing I would say if we met Geelong or WC today I feel sure we would prevail in both matches.

I said a few weeks ago I would prefer a close finish than a series of 100 pt wins I think winning big makes you think you are better than you really are something we do not have to worry about so we are good in the trenches and battle hardened.

I think we are in for some more close finishes and I am confident in the team I do not see anyone we have to fear in the finals,I am not saying we will win but whoever beats us will have to beats us and they will not do it by much Melbourne got out to a 4 gl lead but could not go on with. I think every one in the finals will have been watching us closely and coming to the same conclusion we may not be the most talented but I think we have the most heart.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I give him credit for sabotaging Carlton. Sent them into irrelevancy for a few years. Thanks Mick!

Belongs in the gratitude thread

 

[manicmagpie]

Sitting in the Warne Stand on Friday night I could easily see the signs held up by our bench and it was incredibly impressive how quickly the team switched our style as soon as the ‘Stop’ sign came out.

If you watch back the last 5 minutes we completely control the game and the ball barely passes the centre line. We clearly train for these scenarios and we executed our plans perfectly. And now we have real game experience in just about every likely scenario so it’s not just theory, it’s practice.

One sign we often hold up near the end of the game is a big ‘35’. I’m not sure what that one is. Maybe it’s ‘Trust in Nick Daicos’.

More seriously it might be tied into the ’self sacrifice’ message that we’ve pushed with the tradition of handing on the 35 number, so it might be a reminder to give everything for the team as the game is on the line. Or it could just be a reminder of a particular scenario. I think it comes out when we’re ahead going into the last minute or two.

 

[Hazz]

Total agreement except for the bolded part of 3.

Malthouse was ALWAYS about Malthouse and ONLY Malthouse - saying it takes three years is just another way of explaining to the hoi poloi just how hard he has to work to achieve it.

Let me get this right -
Commenting on Malthouse bignoting himself = Good.
Commenting on Buckley bignoting himself = Bad.

As a famous poster quoted to me a couple of days ago...

FMD do we have to go over this AGAIN???????

Move the FCK on . . .

 

[gouki88]

Sitting in the Warne Stand on Friday night I could easily see the signs held up by our bench and it was incredibly impressive how quickly the team switched our style as soon as the ‘Stop’ sign came out.

If you watch back the last 5 minutes we completely control the game and the ball barely passes the centre line. We clearly train for these scenarios and we executed our plans perfectly. And now we have real game experience in just about every likely scenario so it’s not just theory, it’s practice.

One sign we often hold up near the end of the game is a big ‘35’. I’m not sure what that one is. Maybe it’s ‘Trust in Nick Daicos’.

More seriously it might be tied into the ’self sacrifice’ message that we’ve pushed with the tradition of handing on the 35 number, so it might be a reminder to give everything for the team as the game is on the line. Or it could just be a reminder of a particular scenario. I think it comes out when we’re ahead going into the last minute or two.

This is good stuff. Only ever see the 1 minute / 30 second signs

 

[jonbe54]

Let me get this right -
Commenting on Malthouse bignoting himself = Good.
Commenting on Buckley bignoting himself = Bad.

As a famous poster quoted to me a couple of days ago...

Hahaha

Buckley never said HE was the reason but you obviously want him to have said so.

 

[Markfs]

i keep asking myself why we find ourselves in losing positions after a couple of quarters....but i try not to dwell on it

 

[Pistol Night]

i keep asking myself why we find ourselves in losing positions after a couple of quarters....but i try not to dwell on it

Trailing by 17 points to the premiers at half time and i fully expected we'd win

 

[hellfire]

There is certainly some luck involved, but we’re really well drilled and disciplined at the crunch. When we’re behind, we play with dash & dare, and that’s hard to defend. When we’re ahead, we do the little things right - like locking the ball in or being taken in a tackle rather than rushing a disposal to a 50/50. But it’s a strong fitness base and a ‘manic pressure’ gear that really makes it possible.

As someone else said, the fact that we’re allowing so many games to be close is a different discussion, and probably a reflection of our scope for improvement. We seem to play to the level of our opposition and only flick the switch when required, which won’t continue to work forever.

 

[Markfs]

Trailing by 17 points to the premiers at half time and i fully expected we'd win

i try to be that way but I can't bring myself to being that irrational.... I hadn't given up but i wouldn't have bet on the pies

 

[Pistol Night]

i try to be that way but I can't bring myself to being that irrational.... I hadn't given up but i wouldn't have bet on the pies

I was about 10 beers deep though so that may have played a part