Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

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You think it is realistic that the government is going to keep all restaurants closed? All beaches closed? Close down all international travel? Limit all gatherings to a maximum of two people?
Why not? They've just gotten away with it for six months.

Who thought that was possible as we brought in the New Year just 13 weeks ago?

You don't have to trust the government to know that these are not things that will be tolerated for any sort of extended period.

They will be tolerated indefinitely and dissenters will be silenced via shaming (or worse).
 

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Is anybody else just a little bit concerned that these measures may not be so 'temporary'?

Yes. At the moment they are sounding out public reaction to "we can track exposed and infected people through their phones."

Which sounds wonderful and noble and who wouldn't be against a measure that would save lives?

Remember a couple of years back laws were passed to keep metadata from ISPs and telcos, and nobody apart from some lawyers and industry insiders seemed to give a s**t? Like what's metadata and why should we care? They'll catch pedophiles with it, think of the childruuuuhnn.

Well that metadata also includes your location history. They're not going to track people through their phones. They're going to do it using the existing data you have already provided your telco, and the data your phone continuously spews out. They won't go NEAR your phone. Your phone does quite a good job by itself.

But all that metadata is not centralised. It is in discrete silos all over the place. To get information requires messy things like warrants and s**t, and having to go to a dozen different places and then putting it all together. No, no, no.

They are going to put, at a guess, the last three months of everyone's location metadata into a searchable database and keep updating it in semi-real time.
They will then run queries against a person's IMEI number and get locations and timestamps.
It is then trivial to do further searches on that information to find out which IMEIs shared those locations at that time.
Bingo. There's your list of contacts. Lets do the same queries for them.

Let's pick a random day. Let's say Wednesday 5 February, just for shits and giggles.
Where were you in the afternoon between 3 and 4?
You might have had a regular school run, or been at work, or whatever. I'm FIIK. I can't remember what I did last week, little loan almost two months ago.
But they have discovered that an infected person was at the Point Cook town centre clinic that afternoon and they want to follow up who was there at the same time. They run a query against all IMEIs that were at that part of the shopping centre in the timeframe. My IMEI pops up. This is what they can see:
tracking.jpg
So they can tell that I was potentially exposed to this person in the northern part of the shopping centre, when I visited the chemist and walked past the clinic. I did not go to Coles or any other part of the complex. I then went to Point Hook fish and chips for a late lunch and was there from 3:20 to 3:36. They already have this information about you. Just not in a convenient form yet.

Yes, all well and good. Save lives. Give up a little information for the greater good. Of course it will never be misused. Of course we'll think about deleting the database once the coronavirus thing is over. Or maybe we'll keep it around and keep updating it just in case there's another pandemic one day. Or we need to track you because you wrote something we didn't like, you dangerous subversive intellectual you! It's too useful and it has full privacy safeguards so I'm sure you won't mind us holding on to it for a little bit, and maybe adding more information about you to it, after all we can use it against terry wrists and pedophiles and think of the childruuuhhn.

Dutton's throbbing at the thought of this. There's nothing more permanent than a temporary tax, or a temporary removal of freedoms in the name of security and the public good.
 
Just get a vaccine/cure and that'll be the end of this. I don't understand how multiple people (scientists) can work on this and only this day after day and it still take 12 months to occur? Surely they know shortcuts with testing so can try multiple things per day?
 
I don't understand how multiple people (scientists) can work on this and only this day after day and it still take 12 months to occur? Surely they know shortcuts with testing so can try multiple things per day?


Yep, lets take shortcuts.
 
Is anybody else just a little bit concerned that these measures may not be so 'temporary'?

Or am I the only person in this thread who doesn't necessarily believe that the government is his friend?

The government will eventually lift the public restrictions in line with each state's pandemic protocols.

The wage subsidy will probably be temporary but i don't see them rolling back the new jobseeker rate anytime soon which brings me to a theory that the government might use it welfare system as a way of supporting business to cover the cost of employment as it does with people on DSP.
 
The curve is definitely starting to flatten for both Italy and Spain. UK and Germany been showing some encouraging signs too.
Thinking the same. I'm not sure where to look sometimes. I don't expect a decrease in deaths yet, that's a couple of weeks away, but too see 3 or 4 days of decreasing new cases is giving me hope.

Meanwhile my bosses wife now has a toothache and wants us to contact dentists(Who aren't allowed to work unless it's an emergency).. She has also eaten over 2 kilos of chocolate since last saturday(the 21st).

We're able to work, but we are living our own ******* nightmare.
 

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Thinking the same. I'm not sure where to look sometimes. I don't expect a decrease in deaths yet, that's a couple of weeks away, but too see 3 or 4 days of decreasing new cases is giving me hope.

Meanwhile my bosses wife now has a toothache and wants us to contact dentists(Who aren't allowed to work unless it's an emergency).. She has also eaten over 2 kilos of chocolate since last saturday(the 21st).

We're able to work, but we are living our own ******* nightmare.

The price you pay for the good life Dicey, everything comes at a price. Hope you stay safe mate.
 
Maybe I m going crazy but I m starting to think this is a massive load of nothing.



On SM-A505YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think it will turn out to be about half as deadly as SARS but about as easy as SARS was to stop. Difference this time is that Chinese coverup and Western incompetence allowed it to spread for two months. The over the top reactions from governments are in response to their incompetence / malfeasance in the first place.

And no one should contribute to the WHO any longer.
 
Yes. At the moment they are sounding out public reaction to "we can track exposed and infected people through their phones."

Which sounds wonderful and noble and who wouldn't be against a measure that would save lives?

Remember a couple of years back laws were passed to keep metadata from ISPs and telcos, and nobody apart from some lawyers and industry insiders seemed to give a s**t? Like what's metadata and why should we care? They'll catch pedophiles with it, think of the childruuuuhnn.

Well that metadata also includes your location history. They're not going to track people through their phones. They're going to do it using the existing data you have already provided your telco, and the data your phone continuously spews out. They won't go NEAR your phone. Your phone does quite a good job by itself.

But all that metadata is not centralised. It is in discrete silos all over the place. To get information requires messy things like warrants and s**t, and having to go to a dozen different places and then putting it all together. No, no, no.

They are going to put, at a guess, the last three months of everyone's location metadata into a searchable database and keep updating it in semi-real time.
They will then run queries against a person's IMEI number and get locations and timestamps.
It is then trivial to do further searches on that information to find out which IMEIs shared those locations at that time.
Bingo. There's your list of contacts. Lets do the same queries for them.

Let's pick a random day. Let's say Wednesday 5 February, just for shits and giggles.
Where were you in the afternoon between 3 and 4?
You might have had a regular school run, or been at work, or whatever. I'm FIIK. I can't remember what I did last week, little loan almost two months ago.
But they have discovered that an infected person was at the Point Cook town centre clinic that afternoon and they want to follow up who was there at the same time. They run a query against all IMEIs that were at that part of the shopping centre in the timeframe. My IMEI pops up. This is what they can see:
View attachment 849747
So they can tell that I was potentially exposed to this person in the northern part of the shopping centre, when I visited the chemist and walked past the clinic. I did not go to Coles or any other part of the complex. I then went to Point Hook fish and chips for a late lunch and was there from 3:20 to 3:36. They already have this information about you. Just not in a convenient form yet.

Yes, all well and good. Save lives. Give up a little information for the greater good. Of course it will never be misused. Of course we'll think about deleting the database once the coronavirus thing is over. Or maybe we'll keep it around and keep updating it just in case there's another pandemic one day. Or we need to track you because you wrote something we didn't like, you dangerous subversive intellectual you! It's too useful and it has full privacy safeguards so I'm sure you won't mind us holding on to it for a little bit, and maybe adding more information about you to it, after all we can use it against terry wrists and pedophiles and think of the childruuuhhn.

Dutton's throbbing at the thought of this. There's nothing more permanent than a temporary tax, or a temporary removal of freedoms in the name of security and the public good.
Saw this on twitter:



A very sophisticated UI like that doesn't get cooked up in a couple of months!

Australian security services already use things like Palantir, these events are simply showing you a world that already existed.
 
Thinking the same. I'm not sure where to look sometimes. I don't expect a decrease in deaths yet, that's a couple of weeks away, but too see 3 or 4 days of decreasing new cases is giving me hope.
The number of new cases in Italy peaked around 21 March. The mean time in Italy between first symptoms and death is 9 days. The number of deaths should start falling in the next few days.

1585596589135.png
 
I think it will turn out to be about half as deadly as SARS but about as easy as SARS was to stop. Difference this time is that Chinese coverup and Western incompetence allowed it to spread for two months. The over the top reactions from governments are in response to their incompetence / malfeasance in the first place.

And no one should contribute to the WHO any longer.
Surely it’s pretty safe to say this is harder to stop than SARS.

Not that many people who caught SARS were asymptomatic or only experienced a really mild sickness. Most were sick enough to be either knocked for six to the point where they were either hospitalised or at the very least, confined to their beds for the vast duration of the time they were both symptomatic and infectious.

The concept of a silent super spreader wasn’t really a thing with SARS. Even the doctor who spread it from Guangdong to Hong Kong (from where it then spread internationally) was not a silent spreader, he was already symptomatic after treating SARS patients in Guangdong yet made the mind boggling decision to still travel.

Ipso facto, SARS patients were far easier to lock down before they spread it because in general they were more obviously sick.

COVID-19 is more insidious precisely because it’s just as infectious while spreading much more silently.
 
It's a sneaky *er. It's big party trick is getting past the interferon 1 modulated innate response.

Potential Immune Evasion Mechanisms: Current observations indicate that coronaviruses are particularly adapted to evade immune detection and dampen human immune responses. This partly explains why they tend to have a longer incubation period, 2-11 days on average compared to influenza, 1-4 days. The longer incubation period is probably due to their immune evasion properties, efficiently escaping host immune detection at the early stage of infection. As a member of the Betacoronavirus genus, immune evasion mechanism is potentially similar to those of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The mechanisms of how SARS-CoV and MERSCoV modulate host immune responses were extensively reviewed and discussed (Figure 3). In brief, most mechanisms rely on the inhibition of innate immune responses, especially type I interferon recognition and signaling. The viral proteins including membrane (M) or nonstructural (NS) proteins (eg. NS4a, NS4b, NS15) are the key molecules in host immune modulation. In agreement with the aforementioned study, analysis of two MERS-CoV-infected individuals with different severity found that the type I interferon response in the poor outcome (death) patient was remarkably lower than the recovered patient. For adaptive immune evasion, antigen presentation via MHC class I and MHC class II was downregulated when the macrophages or dendritic cells were infected with MERS-CoV, which would markedly diminish T cells activation.



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The curve is definitely starting to flatten for both Italy and Spain. UK and Germany been showing some encouraging signs too.

UK may be a bit early, but promising. Iran and USA are the biggest concerns

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