2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 128 87.1%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 19 12.9%

  • Total voters
    147
  • Poll closed .

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WA branch is cooked

One of the Vic members likely to get in Andrew Dowling has been busily deleting all his tweets and likes of JK Rowling and Terfs so we shall see
He lost, Greens have won the seat instead.

Final LC tally:

Labor15
Libs/Nats14
Greens4
Legalise Cannabis2
Animal Justice1
Labour DLP1
Liberal Democrats1
One Nation1
Shooters Fishers Farmers1
 
Victoria's new upper house crossbench

The Victorian parliament’s new upper house crossbench will be dominated by progressive parties but also include One Nation’s first MP in the state.

One Nation’s Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell has become the party’s first MP in the Victorian parliament. The Greens will be represented by four MPs in the 11-person crossbench, while Legalise Cannabis will have two MPs. The Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation will all have one MP in the upper house.

To pass legislation in the legislative council, 21 out of the 40 votes in the chamber are required. Labor now holds 15 seats in the upper house - three less than in the past parliament.

This means, if the Coalition does not support legislation, the Andrews government will need to win over six members of the crossbench.
 

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Victoria's new upper house crossbench

The Victorian parliament’s new upper house crossbench will be dominated by progressive parties but also include One Nation’s first MP in the state.

One Nation’s Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell has become the party’s first MP in the Victorian parliament. The Greens will be represented by four MPs in the 11-person crossbench, while Legalise Cannabis will have two MPs. The Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation will all have one MP in the upper house.

To pass legislation in the legislative council, 21 out of the 40 votes in the chamber are required. Labor now holds 15 seats in the upper house - three less than in the past parliament.

This means, if the Coalition does not support legislation, the Andrews government will need to win over six members of the crossbench.
So 4 Greens and 2 LC gets them over.

Legalise it Dan and you should have smooth sailing 🤪


Lisa Simpson Weed GIF by The Simpsons
 
The thing is that most of their progressive agenda has been passed in the last 8 years.

I'm worried they end up placating the Greens by doing something silly and over-the-top with regard to animal welfare (bans on greyhound racing etc).

If I were the SFF/LD/ON, I would be in the Govt's ear to stop them going to AJ or too far into the Greens camp. Unless, I guess they make the calculated decision that if the Govt passes more legislation that their voters hate they will win more seats next time, even if they're nowhere near their state goals.

I'm guessing the latter will happen.
 
The thing is that most of their progressive agenda has been passed in the last 8 years.

I'm worried they end up placating the Greens by doing something silly and over-the-top with regard to animal welfare (bans on greyhound racing etc).

If I were the SFF/LD/ON, I would be in the Govt's ear to stop them going to AJ or too far into the Greens camp. Unless, I guess they make the calculated decision that if the Govt passes more legislation that their voters hate they will win more seats next time, even if they're nowhere near their state goals.

I'm guessing the latter will happen.
NSW tried banning greyhounds. It went badly
 
What would legalisation mean though? Would it be regulated and to what extent?
I reckon they'll first decriminalise it, with the messaging around not wanting to waste the courts time on personal possession etc.

Then they'll a year or so later go with a medical driven inquiry into legalising it, while taking the public's mood on if to legalise it or not.
 
What would legalisation mean though? Would it be regulated and to what extent?
Don't know. They may push for decriminalisation and ability to grow - I would hope they legalise completely and have it available retail like most places that have legalised in the US and elsewhere.
 
The thing is that most of their progressive agenda has been passed in the last 8 years.

I'm worried they end up placating the Greens by doing something silly and over-the-top with regard to animal welfare (bans on greyhound racing etc).

If I were the SFF/LD/ON, I would be in the Govt's ear to stop them going to AJ or too far into the Greens camp. Unless, I guess they make the calculated decision that if the Govt passes more legislation that their voters hate they will win more seats next time, even if they're nowhere near their state goals.

I'm guessing the latter will happen.
Banning greyhound racing wouldn't be silly or over the top. Especially with the treatment of some of those animals.
 
Don't know. They may push for decriminalisation and ability to grow - I would hope they legalise completely and have it available retail like most places that have legalised in the US and elsewhere.

But that would mean regulation right? So what does that mean. Genuinely interested in this. I don’t use it, not against it just want to understand what it would mean to legalise it. Amsterdam model seems pretty messy.
 

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But that would mean regulation right? So what does that mean. Genuinely interested in this. I don’t use it, not against it just want to understand what it would mean to legalise it. Amsterdam model seems pretty messy.
I guess it would mean making it legal to produce for commercial purposes (like breweries/distilleries for alcohol) and making it legal to sell retail (as plants or edibles) in "coffee" shops or other retail outlets. Any producer/retailer would require a licence. And taxed each step of the way (like alcohol/tobacco).

Would mean the potency could be made available to so you know the strength of what you're consuming.

Here's some examples of how it could work in practice


 
He lost, Greens have won the seat instead.

Final LC tally:

Labor15
Libs/Nats14
Greens4
Legalise Cannabis2
Animal Justice1
Labour DLP1
Liberal Democrats1
One Nation1
Shooters Fishers Farmers1

Declarations​

  • Eastern Victoria - 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 National, 1 SFF. No change on 2018 party composition.
  • North-Eastern Metropolitan - 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green. Green gain at the expense of the Transport Matters Party.
  • Northern Metropolitan - 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 DLP. DLP gain from Fiona Patten's Reason Party.
  • Northern Victoria - 1 Labor, Liberal, 1 National, 1 One Nation, 1 Animal Justice. The Nationals, One Nation and Animal Justice gain seats. Labor, the Liberal Democrats and Derryn Hinch's Justice Party lose seats.
  • South-Eastern Metropolitan - 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Legalise Cannabis. Labor loses a seat to Legalise Canabis.
  • Southern Metropolitan - 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens. Green gain at the expense of Sustainable Australia.
  • Western Metropolitan - 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Legalise Cannabis. Labor lose one seat and Derryn Hinch's Justice Party turned Independent turned Angry Victorian Catherine Cumming defeated. Legalise Cannabis and Liberals gain a seat.
  • Western Victoria - 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green. Liberals and Greens gain seats at the expense of Animal Justice and Derryn Hinch's Justice Party.
 
Banning greyhound racing wouldn't be silly or over the top. Especially with the treatment of some of those animals.
In a sane world where only facts and reality matter, you'd think so. Some disgusting practises in that sport. But various opponents of Labor in NSW totally weaponised the attempt to ban greyhound racing and the government backed down very quickly.
 
Worth reading the 28 part twitter thread by Adem Somyurek.

Whether you like him or not, it appears he ran a smart campaign. Claims he got 7.33% primary vote across the 4 electorates he targeted- Broadmeadows, Greenvale, Thomastown and Kalkallo.

Those were areas the ALP's vote dropped considerably. Areas with lower than average income, high rates of ethnic minorities and full of people impacted by government overreach during covid.
 
In a sane world where only facts and reality matter, you'd think so. Some disgusting practises in that sport. But various opponents of Labor in NSW totally weaponised the attempt to ban greyhound racing and the government backed down very quickly.

Liberal-National Government in NSW implemented and retracted the greyhound racing ban.
 
Using who gamblers thought was going to win the election as a basis of what the wider population thought was likely is, as nicely as I can put it, incredibly stupid. There's a reason gamblers go broke and bookies don't.
Gamblers just have stronger opinions than everyday people

They are over confident types who believe in their views strongly enough to part with their hard-earned cash in a game that's rigged against them.

Perhaps gamblers have more epistemic blind spots than the average joe on the street, but in terms of making predictions about who will win, you wouldn't assume those specific epistemic blind spots would lend themselves to gamblers favoring one party over another

Layman's summary:

Gamblers might be fools, but fools back both sides. They're still representative of the views in the community.
 
Worth reading the 28 part twitter thread by Adem Somyurek.

Whether you like him or not, it appears he ran a smart campaign. Claims he got 7.33% primary vote across the 4 electorates he targeted- Broadmeadows, Greenvale, Thomastown and Kalkallo.

Those were areas the ALP's vote dropped considerably. Areas with lower than average income, high rates of ethnic minorities and full of people impacted by government overreach during covid.

He targeted that area not because the high rates of ethnic minorities would agree with the Labour DLP policies, but a higher chance that section of the community would mistake Labour DLP for Labor (the ALP) on the ballot paper.
 
Liberal-National Government in NSW implemented and retracted the greyhound racing ban.
My bad.

But remains to be seen whether Vic Labor would stand up to a sustained campaign by the greyhound industry and fellow travellers.

Currently NSW Labor are sure trying to not offend the clubs industry, despite massive public support for gambling reforms.
 
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