Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[Ticky009]

Yes that is possible but I am not surprised we are trying to load up on picks next year as it is supposed to a really good draft and we have 2 academy kids likely to go inside the top 30.

And by top 30 we mean late 2nd round early 3rd. We can take it or leave it.

 

[RUNVS]

And by top 30 we mean late 2nd round early 3rd. We can take it or leave it.

Well one of them (Cabor and Clearly) is at the moment projected to go in the first round, though for the life of me I can't remember which.

 

[Ticky009]

Well one of them (Cabor and Clearly) is at the moment projected to go in the first round, though for the life of me I can't remember which.

No mate. Neither off them are predicted to go first round. That can change but at this point they're not knocking down doors

 

[Keystone agony]

You would think it appears unlikely that a team will trade out a F1 for 14 and 17 just doesnt appear to be many likely scenarios based on teams needing a F2 to be able to do so

If the right player is there at 14 or 17 then i reckon dons might be happy to swap over a F2 and 22 for one of them. Gives swans an early F2 which might be the best they can achieve

 

[anotherletdown]

If the players aren’t there why would you trade back instead of trade into 2023? You are at a disadvantage unless you are approached for the picks. As hawks I would give you our 2 f2 picks for 14 and 17 and you would likely take it.

If i thought that was likely i'd push fot that. If Melbourne offered theirs and Freos future firsts I'd do it in a flash. Hawks aren't the only party in town, we'd tell you to stick it where the sun doesn't shine and find something better or simply hold

 

[RUNVS]

I wonder if this would work

Pick 14 to Carlton for their 2023 first rounder
Pick 17 and 42 to Collingwood for their pick 51 and 2023 first rounder.

 

[FB19]

If i thought that was likely i'd push fot that. If Melbourne offered theirs and Freos future firsts I'd do it in a flash. Hawks aren't the only party in town, we'd tell you to stick it where the sun doesn't shine and find something better or simply hold

We like the dark I’m in the UK! Dees and blues are the only likely takers

 

[Membling]

If the right player is there at 14 or 17 then i reckon dons might be happy to swap over a F2 and 22 for one of them. Gives swans an early F2 which might be the best they can achieve

Doubt there wouls be much appetite for that on Swans end. Maybe pick 17 but depends who is available

 

[Ash1337]

Team most likely to trade with Sydney would be dees. 14 & 17 for a F1 and F2. However North have port's F1 too and if they rather get kids in this year they could do a deal too.

 

[anotherletdown]

We like the dark I’m in the UK! Dees and blues are the only likely takers

I'm in Germany - touche! 5 degrees here and about to rain, sunset around 4:30pm this afternoon and might slip into negatives tonight.

I just wish SOS was still at the Blues, we'd be a lock

 

[hawkinoz]

Top 4 as is, rest
Dons : The Pou
Suns : Hump
Haw : Mackensie
Cats : Tsatas
WCE : Ginbey
StKs : Clark
Lions: Fletcher
Carl : Hollands
Dogs: Busslinger
WCE: Allan
Dees: Jefferson
Syd : Weddle
GWS: George
Adel: Max M
GWS : Rowston
Pies : Ryan

Interesting is if Pick 7 is Tsatas( hawks or Dees based on reported trade interests) then how would rest go.

Cats with pick 8 will be ??? Allan or Clark instead of Tsatas
If it is Allan, then who does Saints pick? Mackensie or Clark

Then who does WCE pick Mackensie or Clark or Jefferson

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

If Jefferson or Busslinger is available at Sydney’s first pick, I would be happy for Collingwood to swap a future 1st, Pick 25 and Pick 27 for Pick 14 and Pick 17.

 

[hawkinoz]

If Rowston is bid on before pick 18( as seen on the Foxfooty phantom draft), would it make sense to offer GWS both our F2's for 18 & 19 and then after bid match trade 24 for their F2/F3

IN : 18,19, F2 or F3(GWS)
OUT: 24, F2(Hawks), F2(WB)

GWS will lose their pick 31 & 57 in the bid match. I am sure Essendon are offering the same with their 22+F2 but ours is better. Not sure who else can offer a better deal that that.

 

[eth-dog]

If Rowston is bid on before pick 18( as seen on the Foxfooty phantom draft), would it make sense to offer GWS both our F2's for 18 & 19 and then after bid match trade 24 for their F2/F3

IN : 18,19, F2 or F3(GWS)
OUT: 24, F2(Hawks), F2(WB)

GWS will lose their pick 31 & 57 in the bid match. I am sure Essendon are offering the same with their 22+F2 but ours is better. Not sure who else can offer a better deal that that.

I doubt we offer that. GWS are the club most likely to bid on Davey ahead of our pick so we probably sit tight honestly and keep our F2.

 

[hawkinoz]

Did some rough point calculations to assess lions motives for doing pick trade with us.
Given lions don't have a F1, they can only trade one of their F3(melb) or F3(WB). Their F2 & F4 is from top clubs, so no one is swapping for those and giving picks early in the night. Roos are reported to be likely to trade their pick 40 for one of the F3's

we trade our 48,50,63 for Crows 46,56,59( crows gain 5 pts extra & we have to do as we go 48 from Lions) and then send 41,46,52,56 for 35 & 36.

Lions should have 34,38,40,41,46,52,55,56 and likely have to use only the top 5 or 6 of those picks for Ashcroft. That will then bump 52,55,56 to 5 spots up as well gaining xtra points before Fletcher is bid on.

If Will gets bid on at pick 2, Lions need 2104 pts.
34,38,40,41,46 = 2177 pts & lions get pick 67(69pts) back

They hold 52,55,56,67 and these picks move 4 spots up ( 5 for vanished picks - 1 for Lions getting into the draft order)
So its 48,51,52,63 = 919 pts

Fletcher can be bid from pick 11 or 12 onwards and Lions will be fine, no need to go into points deficit. If GWS bid at Pick 1, then Lions need to find an extra 400 points or go into deficit or hope then Fletch gets bid on even later.

PS : there is a good chance Hawks will NOT seek 2 30's pick from lions. Could well be just pick 36 and one of their F3's.

 

[hawkinoz]

Redid my calc based on Lions trading only 36(+ F3) to Hawks & gaining pick 40 from Roos for another F3(Melb) and giving back 55 - diff of 200 pts(pick 54) btw 40 & 55

36(502pts) + F3 <-> 46,52,56 ( 771 pts) - could be 59 instead of 56 based on if its F3(WB) or F3(lions)

Lions start with 34,35,38,40,46,52,56

If Will gets bid on at pick 2, Lions need 2104 pts.
34,35,38,40,46 = 2389 pts & lions get pick 50(285pts diff) back

They hold 50,52,56 and these picks move 4 spots up ( 5 for vanished picks - 1 for Lions getting into the draft order)
So its 46,48,52 = 879 pts

Fletcher can be bid from pick 15 onwards and Lions will be fine, no need to go into points deficit. If GWS bid at Pick 1, then Lions need to find an extra 400 points or go into deficit or hope then Fletch gets bid on even later.

 

[Giant Strides]

Lots of chatter about Bombers putting pick #4 up for trade, Hawks their #6, clubs wanting to move up etc. But no-one at the pointy end of the draft really wants to drop out of the top 10, where there's most talent.

I wonder if the clubs could organise a multi-club mega-trade, similar to the Norths-GWS-Port-Eagles mega-trade during trade period? I know we like to speculate with things like this on BF, and it rarely happens, but I do wonder if the ice might have been broken to do such a trade?

This is not exact, but ballpark something like:

Melbourne: give #13 (to St Kilda), Freo F1R (to Essendon), ML F1R (to Hawthorn); receive #4 (from Essendon), #41 (from Hawthorn)

Essendon: give #4 (to Melbourne), #22 (to St Kilda); receive #6 (from Hawthorn), Freo F1R (from Melbourne)

Hawthorn: give #6 (to Essendon), #41 (to Melbourne); receive #9 (from St Kilda), ML F1R (from Melbourne)

St Kilda: give #9 (to hawthorn); receive #13 (from Melbourne), #22 (from Essendon)

In short:

• Melbourne are paying the largest price for the biggest move, essentially 3 teens picks to move to #4, with a minor pick back - gets Humphrey
• Essendon only moves back 2 spots plus trades #22 for Freo's future first rounder (greatest chance of being earlier), so best chance of good upside next year - & it probably still gets them Phillipou
• Hawthorn move back 3 places, if they are happy enough with one of Clark, Mackenzie or Tsatas they'll still get one of them, while getting an extra future first in the teens, have to gibe up a third rounder to grease the wheels a little
• St Kilda probably make the biggest sacrifice in moving out of the top 10, but get an extra & early second round pick (giving them 4 picks inside the first 32 before academy/father-son selections - if they're happy with Elijah Hewett then he may be available at the later pick and therefore get who they want while getting an extra early second rounder

There would be something for everyone there as long as one club doesn't want to "win" the trade hands down and demand too much for the sacrifice they're making. (Given everyone's just sliding backwards, the sacrifice for each club is limited, especially where they likely get exactly who they like or at least someone they like enough.) Dodo is probably the most likely impediment, and perhaps needing to match a bid for Davey the #41 needs to go to Essendon rather than Melbourne.

It's a big price for Melbourne to pay, 3 first rounders, but they're already offering that so if they want to move up that far they do need to accept a hefty price.

 

[The Boar]

Lots of chatter about Bombers putting pick #4 up for trade, Hawks their #6, clubs wanting to move up etc. But no-one at the pointy end of the draft really wants to drop out of the top 10, where there's most talent.

I wonder if the clubs could organise a multi-club mega-trade, similar to the Norths-GWS-Port-Eagles mega-trade during trade period? I know we like to speculate with things like this on BF, and it rarely happens, but I do wonder if the ice might have been broken to do such a trade?

This is not exact, but ballpark something like:

Melbourne: give #13 (to St Kilda), Freo F1R (to Essendon), ML F1R (to Hawthorn); receive #4 (from Essendon), #41 (from Hawthorn)

Essendon: give #4 (to Melbourne), #22 (to St Kilda); receive #6 (from Hawthorn), Freo F1R (from Melbourne)

Hawthorn: give #6 (to Essendon), #41 (to Melbourne); receive #9 (from St Kilda), ML F1R (from Melbourne)

St Kilda: give #9 (to hawthorn); receive #13 (from Melbourne), #22 (from Essendon)

In short:

• Melbourne are paying the largest price for the biggest move, essentially 3 teens picks to move to #4, with a minor pick back - gets Humphrey
• Essendon only moves back 2 spots plus trades #22 for Freo's future first rounder (greatest chance of being earlier), so best chance of good upside next year - & it probably still gets them Phillipou
• Hawthorn move back 3 places, if they are happy enough with one of Clark, Mackenzie or Tsatas they'll still get one of them, while getting an extra future first in the teens, have to gibe up a third rounder to grease the wheels a little
• St Kilda probably make the biggest sacrifice in moving out of the top 10, but get an extra & early second round pick (giving them 4 picks inside the first 32 before academy/father-son selections - if they're happy with Elijah Hewett then he may be available at the later pick and therefore get who they want while getting an extra early second rounder

There would be something for everyone there as long as one club doesn't want to "win" the trade hands down and demand too much for the sacrifice they're making. (Given everyone's just sliding backwards, the sacrifice for each club is limited, especially where they likely get exactly who they like or at least someone they like enough.) Dodo is probably the most likely impediment, and perhaps needing to match a bid for Davey the #41 needs to go to Essendon rather than Melbourne.

It's a big price for Melbourne to pay, 3 first rounders, but they're already offering that so if they want to move up that far they do need to accept a hefty price.

Abysmal deal for St Kilda

 

[Giant Strides]

Abysmal deal for St Kilda

Why?

 

[The Boar]

Why?

St Kilda would slide back more than anyone in that deal, slide out of the top echelon of players, and only receive a 2nd round pick.

The List Boss would be sacked on the spot

 

[Giant Strides]

St Kilda would slide back more than anyone in that deal, slide out of the top echelon of players, and only receive a 2nd round pick.

The List Boss would be sacked on the spot

Similar to the Port - West Coast trade back last year; a second round pick being the recompense.

But as I said, it would be largely predicated on getting a guy they're happy to move back to get, whilst moving their 4th pick from #47 to #22:

"St Kilda probably make the biggest sacrifice in moving out of the top 10, but get an extra & early second round pick (giving them 4 picks inside the first 32 before academy/father-son selections - if they're happy with Elijah Hewett"

Swings & roundabouts and the bigger picture.

 

[hawkinoz]

Lots of chatter about Bombers putting pick #4 up for trade, Hawks their #6, clubs wanting to move up etc. But no-one at the pointy end of the draft really wants to drop out of the top 10, where there's most talent.

I wonder if the clubs could organise a multi-club mega-trade, similar to the Norths-GWS-Port-Eagles mega-trade during trade period? I know we like to speculate with things like this on BF, and it rarely happens, but I do wonder if the ice might have been broken to do such a trade?

This is not exact, but ballpark something like:

Melbourne: give #13 (to St Kilda), Freo F1R (to Essendon), ML F1R (to Hawthorn); receive #4 (from Essendon), #41 (from Hawthorn)

Essendon: give #4 (to Melbourne), #22 (to St Kilda); receive #6 (from Hawthorn), Freo F1R (from Melbourne)

Hawthorn: give #6 (to Essendon), #41 (to Melbourne); receive #9 (from St Kilda), ML F1R (from Melbourne)

St Kilda: give #9 (to hawthorn); receive #13 (from Melbourne), #22 (from Essendon)

In short:

• Melbourne are paying the largest price for the biggest move, essentially 3 teens picks to move to #4, with a minor pick back - gets Humphrey
• Essendon only moves back 2 spots plus trades #22 for Freo's future first rounder (greatest chance of being earlier), so best chance of good upside next year - & it probably still gets them Phillipou
• Hawthorn move back 3 places, if they are happy enough with one of Clark, Mackenzie or Tsatas they'll still get one of them, while getting an extra future first in the teens, have to gibe up a third rounder to grease the wheels a little
• St Kilda probably make the biggest sacrifice in moving out of the top 10, but get an extra & early second round pick (giving them 4 picks inside the first 32 before academy/father-son selections - if they're happy with Elijah Hewett then he may be available at the later pick and therefore get who they want while getting an extra early second rounder

There would be something for everyone there as long as one club doesn't want to "win" the trade hands down and demand too much for the sacrifice they're making. (Given everyone's just sliding backwards, the sacrifice for each club is limited, especially where they likely get exactly who they like or at least someone they like enough.) Dodo is probably the most likely impediment, and perhaps needing to match a bid for Davey the #41 needs to go to Essendon rather than Melbourne.

It's a big price for Melbourne to pay, 3 first rounders, but they're already offering that so if they want to move up that far they do need to accept a hefty price.

Wil do except melb need to give their 37 . Would ideally need Freo's F1 but can swallow that if we get 37, Hawks will give late 50's pick which should go to Bombers for points for Davey and Essendon give their pick in 60's for Hawks to use for Vickery pick match

pick 41 can go to Saints who will have 22 & 41 But no sure if Saints wants 5 picks

 

[bird_man]

Why would they just go for local targets?

It seems that alot of people just think West Coast = West Australian draftees.

People doing Phantom drafts who are not from WA do this consistently for some reason. When in reality the Eagles rarely draft all WA kids.

Bump

 

[Obeanie1]

Bump

Best available at our picks. The Poo was tempting but not unhappy so far.

With 2 picks remaining.

Two of Barnett, Hotton, Clarke, Szybkowski or Burgeil I'd be rapt.

 

[bird_man]

Best available at our picks. The Poo was tempting but not unhappy so far.

With 2 picks remaining.

Two of Barnett, Hotton, Clarke, Szybkowski or Burgeil I'd be rapt.

If it wasn't obvious before it is now that WC clearly had intention of targeting locals when trading pick 2

I highly doubt that was just a very big coincidence but anyway, just journalists being lazy making that link