Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Enforcer25]

Melb doesn't really need talls.
Expect to see Moloney and Sylvia go too.

We need mids, mids, mids.

I can only see us picking a tall if we get to our mid compo pick (guessing pick 12) and someone like Grundy is there and rated easily top 10 at that stage.

I think we'll be looking hard at Toumpas, Vlastuin and any other ball-winning mid that sticks their hand up early.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Moloney and Sylvia will not be traded.

We need mids... so we trade our two BEST mids?!?!

But I agree our top picks SHOULD be used on mids.

 

[philthy05]

i disagree massively enforcer. you know melbournes list better than i but i think you maybe underestimating how hard it is to put a good list of talls together.

i do agree that they may wait to pick 12 or whatever it is to nab one.

you have a great chance to put a good team together with all these high picks you've had and are about to receive.

just refresh my memory, ild say melb has how many ruckmen under the age of 24 that have shown an ability to play at a high level. than list the ones who they may develop into someone who can play that position to a high level.

??

ok now do the same with key forwards. this one i know.

jack watts looks likely. ok now about the rest??

now for key defenders

frawley and garland have proven they can play to a high level.

ok, not a bad start. of course some may develop from late picks or some player can step up to become elite from already on your list but you cant bank on that. you need to keep adding quality players both from early picks where a good prospect presents itself and late draft/ rookie picks.

its entirely possible you have a 19yr on your list who may make a jump, of course you cant expect that you are going to field a team of 2/3 key defenders and 2 key forwards and a great ruckman with several decent back up options from grabbing a handful of players and expecting that of 8 key position players 6 are gonna be a mixture of elite to good. a very high failure rate among talls.

grundy is soooo good, i just dont see how melb wouldnt want to add him with viney + another top first round prospect + another good prospect in the 2nd round when many good mids will still be available and correct me if im wrong knightmare but the talls probably while exciting become more speculative after that top batch. just saying ild bank on melb wanting one of those top batch of talls, whether they go for one with the first pick or the mid 1st depends i guess.

anyway, all that i was saying in my previous post is that port are short on elite mids. with a few top talls highly rated at the moment i believe a few very good midfielders will slip through as there is a small rush on those few top talls by those teams around us that i see as really needing them. a team like brisbane while they will grab a standout mid if he really does standout i think they would preferably take one of those talls as the midfield prospects at their 2nd round are gonna be pretty good.

melb- viney, grundy/ mcbean/ shaw , best available with their 3 1st picks, 2nd round mid/ best available. that makes complete sense to me.

going viney, vlastuin, haynes then a key position with a mid 20's pick certainly isnt stupid but i think a missed opportunity.

just my take on how it may unfold..

 

[Enforcer25]

We already have a good list of talls.

RUCKS
Gawn has shown he is more than capable, just needs to be free of injury.
Martin is a perfect backup ruck, just needs to work on his decision making & kicking.
Spencer is pretty much where Jamar was at the same age.
Fitzpatrick is playing well in the VFL too.
But you rarely take rucks high in the draft anyway.

FWDS
Mitch Clark - it's early but he's only 3 goals off the pace for the Coleman.
Jurrah, Howe, Petterd are all tall medium fwds that will stretch the opposition.
Watts will get bigger and be capable of playing as a KPF.
Lucas Cook is a pick 12 in his 2nd year developing in the VFL.
Fitzpatrick & Martin can also spend time forward.

BACKS
Frawley is one of the best defenders in the AFL.
Garland is very good, although had a shocker on Saturday.
Rivers is almost past it.
Sellar is serviceable as a big mobile defender.
Tom McDonald is showing great signs in his 2nd year.
Morton is very tall for a flanker.

We're not that bad over the rest of the field - we're just substandard in the guts.

MIDS
Trengove is a gun.
Grimes will have to go in there more.
Tapscott will get pushed in there. Has had many injuries and needs game time to develop.
Gysberts is injured plus needs to get bigger and increase his tank, but is very good.
Blease... jury is out. Immature of mind.
Moloney - one trick pony, even though he's very good at that one trick.
Sylvia is simple.
Jones is a really good ordinary player.
Magner we're still learning about, but can win the contested footy. Bound to have some weaknesses.
Davey past it.
Bail is a complementary player, not a star. Runs and links well. Not sure how he'll go under Neeld.

Melb needs classy ball-winners.
Viney will help. A lot.
We need more.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Don't forget Troy Davis e25, has played some really good footy in the VFL all year and has great speed, agility and strength... can play tall or small.

Frawley Mk. II.

I'm serious.

We need mids, and classy mids.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this draft is thought to be very strong, but mainly in terms of it's midfield players.

Players like Shaw/McBean/Grundy I don't think are the class of other talls taken early in recent drafts.

Shaw might even slide given his injuries.

 

[Enforcer25]

Not forgotten, just left him off as an opposition supporter would likely have no knowledge of him.
Our defense is pretty solid even without him, anyway.

 

[Blackas87]

Yeah mids for Melbourne only with there 1st 3 picks.

Jack Viney (fs)
Nick Vlastuin
Rory Atkins

Would like those guys for our 1st 3 picks based on us being bottom 4

Out of interest knightmare where do you think Viney would go if he wasn't father son selection? Keep up the good work mate.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Yeah mids for Melbourne only with there 1st 3 picks.

Jack Viney (fs)
Nick Vlastuin
Rory Atkins

Would like those guys for our 1st 3 picks based on us being bottom 4

Out of interest knightmare where do you think Viney would go if he wasn't father son selection? Keep up the good work mate.

Is on the first page mate, i think it was either 3-4

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Really would have thought Freo would have gonee with talls in this draft, in fact I think we've said we will somewhere. So I'm really surprised you have us selecting mids and flankers with our first two picks. What talls would you expect to be available at our picks? Mason Middleton sounds alright, where would you rate him?
Also are then any local (WA) Key forwards that you rate, other than shaw, and could see joining us?
I know its just the Freo board, but there is talk of an under the table deal involving Moller and a minin draft pick, in which we will give GWS the rights to select as a zone selection, due to him training with them. It also seems would would likely pick Martin or Hogan if that were the case, is there anyone else possibly on the radar if that unlikely situation was to occur?

 

[Knightmare]

Viney is a CLEAR top 5 quality player this year in my mind. If I had pick 1 I would very much consider him if I was looking for a hard mid and heck if I had pick 2 I'd probably take him. You've got a bargain no matter where you finish. Will add allot to that Melbourne midfield.

I agree with the Melb fans. Go for the mids. More quality needed which is obvious with the way Melbourne are getting beaten right now. I'd probably look to add a Jaksch if available 2nd round and if not then I'd consider one with one of those early compo picks, but this year is the opportunity to build the midfield. It's the substantial weakness right now. The KPPs need more time but that young group coming through looks promising.

If a Sylvia or Moloney were to get traded you'd want an established player in return with the GWS + GC factor who more likely than not will win the battle of building through the draft.
With Neeld as coach he is a guy who wants to win now so he would demand something immediate rather than more building through the draft.



On Freo. I do recommend KPPs. The midfield looks good, the high level KPPs in Pavlich and McPharlin are both nearing the end so time to reload if appropriate options are there. There are a few more I'll be adding into my draft on my next update.

Middleton is interesting. Very strong already. One of those more ready to play guys like a Darling or Kersten from recent drafts. With Ross Lyon as coach I see Middleton as a very appropriate selection. Could be a 2nd rounder.

As key forwards I like Aaron Luccon and Matt Wallis as more mid range type selections. Tanner Smith, Lachlan Plowman and Kristian Jaksch are the key defenders I like who also could be appropriate selections in the 1st-2nd round.

Mason Shaw will probably be drafted before your selection assuming Fremantle finish top 8.

I don't see why Fremantle can't get Craig Moller. You should have priority to him as Collingwood did with Witts regardless of whether he is training with GWS. My understanding is that Moller if he chooses can make sure he lands at Fremantle, but with GWS he might also have the option to go there if he chooses through a zone selection.

If Fremantle want to trade into the minidraft there might be a way to trade Moller + 1st rounder for one of those minidraft selections. Unsure with the NSW/ACT scholarship system whether these choices can be traded, but we'll find out closer to the time.

*Anyone with greater knowledge of the NSW/ACT program feel free to correct any of this if incorrect but this is just my understanding.

 

[Igloo]

Lachie Hunter with 37 disposals, 10 tackles and 3 goals on the weekend. Let's hope he doesn't keep up those kind of performances .

Knightmare, in your opinion, what do you think the dogs need most, and who do you think would it the bill? With our 2 first picks, which will in all likelihood be pretty high (low?), I'd like to see us take a quick, classy mid, and a big forward (Mason Shaw).

My first preference would be Stringer, but I think he will be gone by our pick.

 

[Chris25]

Middleton is interesting. Very strong already. One of those more ready to play guys like a Darling or Kersten from recent drafts. With Ross Lyon as coach I see Middleton as a very appropriate selection. Could be a 2nd rounder.

As key forwards I like Aaron Luccon and Matt Wallis as more mid range type selections.

Size doesn't necessarily equal ready to play though. Middleton is still quite raw, and has areas of his game to develop - he has only played a handful of U18 games in the SANFL after all. I tend to think Kersten wasn't particularly ready made either - a mistake I made last year.

Luccon and Wallis have both been shuffled between the U18s and Reserves this year, but neither has been that impressive. I still don't know quite where I sit with Luccon. And Wallis is largely hype at this stage.

 

[Knightmare]

Lachie Hunter with 37 disposals, 10 tackles and 3 goals on the weekend. Let's hope he doesn't keep up those kind of performances .

Knightmare, in your opinion, what do you think the dogs need most, and who do you think would it the bill? With our 2 first picks, which will in all likelihood be pretty high (low?), I'd like to see us take a quick, classy mid, and a big forward (Mason Shaw).

My first preference would be Stringer, but I think he will be gone by our pick.

Hunter's production is encouraging. Won't go 1st round but if he continues his strong form could be a 2nd/3rd round F/S choice.

The WBD backline needs some more new faces. Another key defender to develop alongside Talia would be a worthwhile investment. Would also look at a rebounding type defender who can add some drive out of that back half.

As a key forward I really like Liam Jones but he needs another high level key forward to play alongside.

Some inside receivers and outside players with pace also needs.

1st round I'd go best available. If a Stringer or similar high level player is available. Take him then address needs later. But there are allot of needs which need to be addressed this year and over coming drafts. It's not a one year job.

If WBD finish low Jimmy Toumpass would be a great fit. Otherwise Matthew Haynes, Josh Simpson, Dayle Garlett and Troy Menzel would be logical choices early.

 

[Knightmare]

Size doesn't necessarily equal ready to play though. Middleton is still quite raw, and has areas of his game to develop - he has only played a handful of U18 games in the SANFL after all. I tend to think Kersten wasn't particularly ready made either - a mistake I made last year.

Luccon and Wallis have both been shuffled between the U18s and Reserves this year, but neither has been that impressive. I still don't know quite where I sit with Luccon. And Wallis is largely hype at this stage.

You are right with Middleton and I'm sure you have a better grasp on his game being in SA.

The only real recent ready-made key forward in recent times is Jack Darling and then Jackson Paine for Collingwood is looking competitive and able to play a role immediately. But this is mostly rare, even from those early draft key forwards.

Luccon assuming he continues to develop strongly this year I'd be happy to take 2nd round, just like the way he has shown that consistent improvement up to this point. Still allot of footy to be played though and unless that improvement continues he could drop down the order in a hurry. Wallis I'm less sure about and tend to agree with your thoughts, but I'm staying open minded and want to see more of him.

 

[bluboy95]

Hey Knightmare, can you give us a list of western jets boys that may be on the radar.
Cheers,

 

[scottdaddy]

who do you think will go in this years mini draft, so eligable bottom age players.
Billy Hartung?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, can you give us a list of western jets boys that may be on the radar.
Cheers,

Ashlin Brown and Spencer White at this stage look like two real draft chances for the Jets.

Also look out for Lachlan Hickey and Mark Orr next year.

who do you think will go in this years mini draft, so eligable bottom age players.
Billy Hartung?

Jack Martin is the favourite for that no.1 minidraft selection.

The other selection is pretty open at this stage. Many of those I like are ineligable in: J.Aish, J.Billings and T.Boyd.
Then McDonald will go F/S to North Melbourne.

Billy Hartung can play and might come into consideration but at this stage unclear who goes with that 2nd minidraft selection.

 

[free at last]

I know it's a tricky call K-mare,but how much do you think Mason Shaw will slide if at all because of his injury?

 

[Knightmare]

I know it's a tricky call K-mare,but how much do you think Mason Shaw will slide if at all because of his injury?

Would be surprised to see Shaw drop out of the 1st round.

Still allot of footy to be played though so allot can change between now and draft time.

 

[Dazb86]

Thanks for the insight Knightmare. I'm thinking (hoping) we put an emphasis on getting some kids with good disposal and pace. Our engine room looks like it will be ok going forward. Just need to add some polish.

 

[free at last]

Would be surprised to see Shaw drop out of the 1st round.

Still allot of footy to be played though so allot can change between now and draft time.

Cheers mate.

Picks 10-16 it is then.

 

[Megaman123]

Knightmare, with the quality of the draft, and clubs more than likely wanting to not trade First Rd picks, what sort of deal do you think may get mini draft player this year. What standard will the two kids be in comparison to a top 10 pick for this year. As a cats fan, I think us not activating our Ablett compo pick may be a sign we may use it, plus a player like Hogan or Byrnes, to secure the number one pick. Can you see this being possible?

 

[Enforcer25]

I doubt an unactivated compo pick plus Hogan or Byrnes would get it done. If the compo pick were activated it would be worth more.

You'd barely even get the 2nd pick with that.
It's essentially pick 1 or 2 in 2013, so it's worth a LOT more.

 

[Igloo]

Knightmare, with the quality of the draft, and clubs more than likely wanting to not trade First Rd picks, what sort of deal do you think may get mini draft player this year. What standard will the two kids be in comparison to a top 10 pick for this year. As a cats fan, I think us not activating our Ablett compo pick may be a sign we may use it, plus a player like Hogan or Byrnes, to secure the number one pick. Can you see this being possible?

As Enforcer said, not with Hogan or Byrnes as the extra. Would take a lot more.
If Geelong do well again this year, so end up with a pick pretty late in the first round, I would imagine it would be closer to using that, as well as the mid first rounder.
But then again, who knows. GWS might not want picks at all.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, with the quality of the draft, and clubs more than likely wanting to not trade First Rd picks, what sort of deal do you think may get mini draft player this year. What standard will the two kids be in comparison to a top 10 pick for this year. As a cats fan, I think us not activating our Ablett compo pick may be a sign we may use it, plus a player like Hogan or Byrnes, to secure the number one pick. Can you see this being possible?

For minidraft pick 1 it will take a top 4 draft pick.

For minidraft pick 2 it will likely take a top 7-8 selection or x2 1st round quality picks if not inside that range.

If the Cats want a piece of the action it would take a 1st round compo pick + 1st rounder and that would likely get the no.2 minidraft selection only.

Hogan and Byrnes have minimal value and are likely of no interest to GWS in a trade of this nature.