Just a reminder Melbourne FC have traded there first pick to the Resurging Gold Coast Suns
No top end talent for them.
Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac
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Just a reminder Melbourne FC have traded there first pick to the Resurging Gold Coast Suns
No top end talent for them.
- Dec 10, 2011
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KM, apparently one of Craig Lambert's sons is eligible to be drafted next year. I believe it's Billy Lambert. Do you have any info on him?
Knightmare
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Have not sighted at this stage.
Knight... Looking at your comparisons, considering Mitch Brown has player AFL shouldn't his comparison be Mitch Brown?
Knightmare
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Knight... Looking at your comparisons, considering Mitch Brown has player AFL shouldn't his comparison be Mitch Brown?
I could be lazy like that but I'm sure as with Hartley at VFL level that there will similarly be some readers not as familiar with Mitch Brown.
hi KM. have heard a little about lions academy prospect jacob allison, but i was at lions training the other day and saw jack rolls for the first time, was there training with the guys. looked very impressive, what do you know about him?
Knightmare
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Rolls seems a chance for Brisbane next year, maybe mid-late draft.
Haven't seen/focused as much on him but he is a light bodied half back/wing who is reasonably clean and efficient enough in what he does. He'll need to put some size on his frame and improve his contested ball winning though.
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Allison a clear number 1 for mine, based on the 2015 champs....Ainsworth a close second. He plays more similar to Hodge than Elliott for mine, but in a mini-forward-version.
That would be great but Petrovski-Seton and Ainsworth just have more class and x-factor at this stage. Allison might make that jump and so might Scharenberg but the prior mentioned two have the runs on the board at the moment.
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I agree with your assessment of Ainsworth. If I'm talking who would I select tomorrow on an AFL squad Ainsworth is that only guy I'd feel comfortably playing now. I don't see him as a Hodge, or really see any similarities with Elliott more who he is and what he is able to do. Ainsworth isn't kicking it 60m and doesn't have Hodge's physical presence, as physically ready as he feels.
Allison I like but not top five and certainly not top one at this stage. But it's pretty open and early days so I wouldn't rule that possibility out given some of his weapons and production at his height. Those academy boys tend to develop well, but I just don't yet have him as exceptionally high.
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Ainsworth more reminds me of Hodge as a junior in the way he goes about his football & his presence on the field....No, he can't kick it 60 off the left, & yes, he's a good 3 inches shorter-at this stage....It's more in his style, presence & demeanor.
Suggest you go back & re-watch Allison's tapes from last years champs....His agility, movement & balance for a 17 year old, 194cm midfielder, is mind-blowing....His ground-coverage is phenomenal.
Knight, looking back at your rankings I see you had Parish at 14 (always thought you had him much higher)... Why so low compared to his draft range? Would it be that he will struggle to take his inside game into the AFL due to his size and thus becomes more an outside specialist?
Knightmare
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I see Parish as a low risk, good, skilled pro. And he can probably play fairly early. I'm just not backing him to star or be as good as those I rate ahead of him as per my power rankings. An ok but not spectacular contested ball winning game is a big part of it. All the great midfielders have that and Parish just doesn't at his height/size. He only has average pace so he isn't breaking the lines. Not likely to ever be a contested marking threat. His best case scenario is something like a Dal Santo as that high production, high skill midfielder but my bet is he falls somewhere short of that and be something more like a better Zac Merrett as that versatile mid/flanker with good skills.
Where Parish settles. I'm not yet sure. He can be thrown outside/inside or played on a flank. He'll probably play a bit everywhere depending on what Essendon need, and he'll be fine doing that. But more an outside/flanker than inside is what I'd anticipate.
KM, I generally agree with your ladder order for 2016. Adelaide and Sydney to slide feels right. You were a bit harsh on North but I must say I cannot understand your positioning of Geelong. For mine, Geelong will finish higher than Sydney, Port, GWS by several games.
Geelong's significant outs are covered, their team balance has been improved and they snagged one of the most influential players in the comp for the equivalent of pick 4. Consider: Menzel (whom I rate highly) replaces Johnston, S Selwood replaces Kelly (both tacklers), Henderson replaces Rivers, ... and then Dangerfield is much better than Stokes, Smith / Stanley are much better than Simpson, and Clarke / Vardy are more productive / versatile than Walker. Further, the new team balance will help us all see just how good the Blitz (Geelong's BF) can become.
In Geelong I see a top 4 team if not the premier (injuries permitting). I'd move Geelong to the top of your list and every other team above them on your list down one.
I believe that only 2 teams have the possibility of a "complete" backline, midfield and forward line and they are Geelong and West Coast.
KM, thoughts?
Geelong's significant outs are covered, their team balance has been improved and they snagged one of the most influential players in the comp for the equivalent of pick 4. Consider: Menzel (whom I rate highly) replaces Johnston, S Selwood replaces Kelly (both tacklers), Henderson replaces Rivers, ... and then Dangerfield is much better than Stokes, Smith / Stanley are much better than Simpson, and Clarke / Vardy are more productive / versatile than Walker. Further, the new team balance will help us all see just how good the Blitz (Geelong's BF) can become.
In Geelong I see a top 4 team if not the premier (injuries permitting). I'd move Geelong to the top of your list and every other team above them on your list down one.
I believe that only 2 teams have the possibility of a "complete" backline, midfield and forward line and they are Geelong and West Coast.
KM, thoughts?
Knightmare
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North finished the H+A season in 8th from memory last year? (I may be wrong but happy to be corrected) Then went on to win some finals and finish higher than that eventual ladder position.
With North I'm struggling to outside of the new draftees (North picked well in my view) who really will improve. Luke McDonald can but I'm struggling to find another name that can take a big step forward. On the other side of things North having an ageing list, Brent Harvey has been consistently great but surely having clocked over 400 games he slows down somewhat this season, then there is no certainty that Drew Petrie or Jarrad Waite can be as productive again next season as two other highly productive 30+ guys. It's just such a heavy reliance on veterans that an injury to one or two of them, or some kind of drop off would really hurt North.
Geelong also while you can pretty easily look at them and think: they've added Dangerfield, Z.Smith, S.Selwood and Lachie Henderson so they must have gotten radically better given the stature of those names. But I'm not so sure. Danger is a gamechanger and one of the best five mids in the game certainly, maybe best three could be argued. Henderson I find injury prone, S.Selwood can be a piece but not a gamechanger and Z.Smith I find to be an awkward addition and I think will hurt more than help Geelong if it limits Blicavs' involvement around the ball with the decrease in ruck minutes unless he plays greater minutes on the ball which isn't clear to me with Danger and S.Selwood both added. What will really hurt Geelong I feel is the losses. Steve Johnson, James Kelly, Matthew Stokes, Jared Rivers, Hamish McIntosh. Those are name guys, not necessarily big performers in 2015, but I don't like those losses, that's too much experience out the door and too much quality. And with Geelong like North Melbourne factoring in how many veterans they have, father time is going to catch them with Enright, Bartel, Lonergan and Mackie all prominent players over the age of 30 who may get hurt or regress. So given this, while Geelong I feel have a wide range of potential finishing positions with a top 4 finish very possible, I see a bottom 8 finish as equally realistic with the health and injuries to the veterans, and the same story with North really determining where they finish the season.
In terms of potential contending teams. I'm struggling. West Coast and Hawthorn probably look like the two. West Coast with Eric McKenzie back, and Lewis Jetta and Jack Redden added, both of whom are exceptional additions. Jon Giles if he puts in the work can negate the loss of Sinclair or Lycett if he works hard and has a big preseason similarly can come in and probably even better the play of Sinclair, conditional on him putting in the work and having a big preseason. So they're the team I really like.
Hawthorn given their age I expect to slip somewhat, and be more beatable, but they can make another grand final and certainly contend again. Just with Lake retired, he was just so big time, I'm just not sure they'll be the premier. He has just been such a major component each finals series that his loss just feels like too much to overcome, for what is now a very old list with not much good young talent to counteract any ageing/declining/injuries to any of the veterans. With the dynamic more a group of star veterans and a group of excellent, developed mid-career types without the new faces capable of breaking through and improving the list that I'm seeing at this point anyway.
If I'm to pick a third contending team. As much as I'll cop it for saying it as they are a wild card given their long time consistent lack of finals success, and top to bottom uninspiring talent with not a whole lot of good youth coming through. I like Richmond and in that kind of Collingwood circa 2002-2003 kind of way where although they don't have a Nathan Buckley that can carry them and feel like a group with mostly mediocre talents, it's a group that just works together and has that right chemistry which makes me think they could overachieve. When Brett Deledio is playing and allowed to play forward of centre, that team wins games. Yarran can add some more electricity on the outside and maybe a Moore or Townsend can be useful role players who can solidify some further weak spots. Broad and Marcon as mature agers were added through the drafts. So they've to me got a list primed to contend, with enough players in that optimal age bracket where conditional on good health they could be a plausible grand finalist, as that team where if 100% of the clubs best 22 are healthy, I wouldn't count them out.
Always so interesting to speculate at this time of the season though. And anything can truly happen. Who had West Coast with all those key defenders getting hurt and Dean Cox and Darren Glass retiring making the grand final last year? And the Dogs with Liberatore out for the season and Griffen, Higgins and Cooney traded? And Giansiracusa retiring?
And next season with what feels like such an even competition, top to bottom, other than Carlton who lost a third of their best 22 it's going to prove an interesting season.
As we have such a large number of developing key forward, I think it seems more than since the last great era (brown, Pavlich, Riewoldt).
How do you rate the next crop including this draft just a gone if it isn't to much trouble?
I think it just seems so deep
Cameron
Hogan
Lynch
Patton
Mcarthy
Boyd
Schache
Mcartin
McKay
Weideman
Daniher
Wright
Darling
Also do you agree it seems to bat deep at the moment?
How do you rate the next crop including this draft just a gone if it isn't to much trouble?
I think it just seems so deep
Cameron
Hogan
Lynch
Patton
Mcarthy
Boyd
Schache
Mcartin
McKay
Weideman
Daniher
Wright
Darling
Also do you agree it seems to bat deep at the moment?
Knightmare
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Not all those guys will make it or be stars. McKay and Weideman are unknowns until we see them. Wright I'm not convinced about. Patton, Boyd, Schache and McCartin aren't there yet but can all develop.
I have a few groupings with the key forwards. Pavlich and N.Riewoldt are the remaining two stars of the past. Roughead, Franklin, Cloke, J.Kennedy, T.Walker, J.Riewoldt and Hawkins are the current stars. Of the younger generation Hogan, Cameron, T.Lynch, Daniher, Stringer, McCarthy and Darling are the better of the more promising key forwards with Moore, McCartin, Boyd, Patton among a few others may join that conversation.
Of the new generation the dynamic I view along the lines of being deeper than in past generations without the same extreme star power we've seen with Carey, Lockett, Dunstall etc in the past. A big reason for this is key defenders today are taller, stronger and also have much better overall games as more willing interceptors and receive better help on defence from teammates so we're probably not going to see as many 100 goal in a year guys as something we may only see a couple of times ever 10 years from now but certainly there will continue to be some key forwards who will be great in their own rights. And probably Hogan, Cameron, T.Lynch and Daniher will be those most great young ones I'm predicting at this stage given their respective talent as well as their standards of performance.
- Feb 24, 2013
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Knightmare....Just want to commend you on an excellent job once again this season. Your phantom draft thread is both one of the highest quality & most eagerly awaited for thread every year.
Thank you for all your excellent work & phenomenal patience/ staying power.
Happy new year & looking forwards with much eager anticipation to another high-quality thread in 2016.
Cheers mate
Thank you for all your excellent work & phenomenal patience/ staying power.
Happy new year & looking forwards with much eager anticipation to another high-quality thread in 2016.
Cheers mate
gillo94
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KM. My question is
How do you compare Harry McKay to Ben McKay. From what you have seen who has more traits to be the better player?
Knightmare
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Ben is the bigger bodied, stronger contested mark with poor mobility.
Harry on the other hand is much more athletic and mobile, more able up the ground and relatively has the better performances on the board, but while able is not as threatening or physically imposing overhead as Ben.
Who will be better. It could go either way.
Both, one or neither may make the grade. It's that open with both of them as they're both so young and so early into their individual developments that you can never quite be sure what is to come.
Of the two Ben concerns me more as his mobility at this stage is horrific, but he may also have the greater upside as he does have that relatively better contested marking ability. Harry feel relatively the safer as the less badly performed but even his numbers were uninspiring which happens with those late year birthday super taller types.
gillo94
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KM
Do you think there is high risks of both players going the draft number they did to Blues and NMFC? In your opinion was there safer options to go for?
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Both I view as relatively high risk for first round selections as their standards of performance were both in my view pretty meh throughout the year.
As a big maybe Kieran Collins was in my view a better choice, though he is a key defender only and has his own risks as an immobile key defender, as great as he is both as a stopper and intercept mark. But for talls, unless you nominate Hipwood and Himmelberg in Carlton's situation and they both still presumably would have had bids matched so there weren't really the alternatives if you wanted to go tall unless you're comfortable waiting another year.
gillo94
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I have seen reports comparing Harry to Drew Petrie and Ben to Lachie Henderson
What's your thoughts on that?
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Both I'd regard as flattering comparisons keeping in mind I compare Harry to Matt Taberner and Ben to Michael Apeness.
Harry doesn't mark like Petrie, but probably isn't all that much unlike Petrie in his early days before he developed into the forward he is today.
Ben I could plausibly play at either end as per Henderson, or that's the hope given he has played both ends as a junior. I just look at Henderson's mobility and ability to read the flight as being on another level where I'm not overly comfortable with that comparison either at this early stage.
But then again others are more optimistic about the scope for development of the McKay boys. So you never say never. I'm just as a rule not prepared with bigs to give them credit before they earn it, which with both being young have not, but I just don't like that risk associated with taking the chance on guys who haven't dominated yet and have had more quite/invisible games than games where they've starred.
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