Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[sonnywalters]

Parish is a big time accumulator as well. He's averaging 29 touches a game in TAC footy and coupled with his very good skills he becomes a highly desirable prospect for recruiters.

Did you actually read what knightmare wrote? Its like you completely ignored it and then just went ahead and gave your opinion on a pre-conceived idea.
I know Saints have their heart set on Parish. But is this just emotion talking? Bit of a worry if he isnt actually that quick.

 

[Knightmare]

Did you actually read what knightmare wrote? Its like you completely ignored it and then just went ahead and gave your opinion on a pre-conceived idea.
I know Saints have their heart set on Parish. But is this just emotion talking? Bit of a worry if he isnt actually that quick.

I am entirely aware Parish can find the footy and use it well and I did read that and have acknowledged that in the past. I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

As for the whether Parish is a suitable selection for the Saints. It depends on what the Saints want. He may not and probably isn't there for starters with Parish probably going at pick 3 or 4. But if he is there, it depends on whether the Saints are looking more for a versatile mid who can use it or something else.

And each of those top end options offer something different, and different evaluations of talent will churn out a different position on draft boards.

In my case as explained before, though I'll go into greater depth this time for clarity. While Parish can find the footy at TAC Cup level and use it cleanly. He isn't a penetrator and his contested ball winning ability is ok, but not at a level where I'd personally feel comfortable placing him on the ball at AFL level for more than just another small minutes rotation option. For pace, Parish is quick enough, but not a linebreaker if that's what you're thinking he may be, that's definitely not him.

Overall I'd categorise Parish as a fine, low risk option, without being the best player there, if he is indeed available.

Other midfielders I'm feeling a greater level of impact from. Guys like Hopper and Oliver as two examples as contested ball winners. Those guys have AFL standard inside games.

Then you've got guys on who can still accumulate generally and offer versatility but also offer greater impact. Keays and R.Clarke are two great examples of this. Keays with his ability not only to accumulate, better contested ball winning ability, but then his strength of hands overhead and scoreboard impact. Then Clarke with his ability to accumulate, but then that explosiveness, still has the class and again he is another where he can really hit the scoreboard.

So Parish for me is edged down my power rankings on impact/ability to change the game and less points of difference. And it seems a lot of people are doing that with Partington who as a midfielder is much the same thing as Parish as another ultra efficient user of the footy who can also find it in bunches, and has still pretty good athleticism. He may even as a midfielder be a touch better as a slightly better contested ball winner, slightly better athlete and better able to provide scoreboard impact.
So that's an insight into my thought process with Parish and where I see him, and why I see him the way I do.

 

[sonnywalters]

I am entirely aware Parish can find the footy and use it well and I did read that and have acknowledged that in the past. I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

As for the whether Parish is a suitable selection for the Saints. It depends on what the Saints want. He may not and probably isn't there for starters with Parish probably going at pick 3 or 4. But if he is there, it depends on whether the Saints are looking more for a versatile mid who can use it or something else.

And each of those top end options offer something different, and different evaluations of talent will churn out a different position on draft boards.

In my case as explained before, though I'll go into greater depth this time for clarity. While Parish can find the footy at TAC Cup level and use it cleanly. He isn't a penetrator and his contested ball winning ability is ok, but not at a level where I'd personally feel comfortable placing him on the ball at AFL level for more than just another small minutes rotation option. For pace, Parish is quick enough, but not a linebreaker if that's what you're thinking he may be, that's definitely not him.

Overall I'd categorise Parish as a fine, low risk option, without being the best player there, if he is indeed available.

Other midfielders I'm feeling a greater level of impact from. Guys like Hopper and Oliver as two examples as contested ball winners. Those guys have AFL standard inside games.

Then you've got guys on who can still accumulate generally and offer versatility but also offer greater impact. Keays and R.Clarke are two great examples of this. Keays with his ability not only to accumulate, better contested ball winning ability, but then his strength of hands overhead and scoreboard impact. Then Clarke with his ability to accumulate, but then that explosiveness, still has the class and again he is another where he can really hit the scoreboard.

So Parish for me is edged down my power rankings on impact/ability to change the game and less points of difference. And it seems a lot of people are doing that with Partington who as a midfielder is much the same thing as Parish as another ultra efficient user of the footy who can also find it in bunches, and has still pretty good athleticism. He may even as a midfielder be a touch better as a slightly better contested ball winner, slightly better athlete and better able to provide scoreboard impact.
So that's an insight into my thought process with Parish and where I see him, and why I see him the way I do.

Cheers again.
Saints need outsiders who can run and carry (and kick). We are really very weak in that area so that is what the club will looking/hoping to draft.
We have too many same-types (Armitage, Dunstan, Ross) so need a point of difference and to add some pace and line-breaking. Stevie Motlop destroyed us three weeks ago and usually those kind of players destroy us. Based on what you said we should consider Keays for pick 5.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers again.
Saints need outsiders who can run and carry (and kick). We are really very weak in that area so that is what the club will looking/hoping to draft.
We have too many same-types (Armitage, Dunstan, Ross) so need a point of difference and to add some pace and line-breaking. Stevie Motlop destroyed us three weeks ago and usually those kind of players destroy us. Based on what you said we should consider Keays for pick 5.

For pace Yestin Eades in the second or third round would be an option. Kieran Lovell if you don't mind going small in the second round is an excellent athlete who also can really use his pace and agility with ball in hand and probably is there in the second round. Ryan Clarke is an excellent athlete and would be a great get in the second round if there.

Wayne Milera while not a linebreaker for class and hurt factor is a good one in the second round, and he moves well and has agility without being the linebreaker those others can be.

They're some names anyway to look out for, when some of the draft videos become available in a month or so.

Generally with linebreakers, they can be had later in the draft. So I wouldn't get too caught up in that first pick addressing that need. Early draft I'd be picking the best guy there, because I'd much rather get someone who can make my team better than someone who fills a need but is only ok.

Bidding pick five for Keays would be a bold move, and it would be very interesting to see if Brisbane match that bid. They can, but the question there would be whether they would with Keays generally rated more around the 10-15 range by most.

In saying that. I'd bid pick five on Keays in a hurry as probably that 4th/5th best player in this draft to my eyes.

 

[TheRedPill]

I have no idea about the rules under that circumstance. Won't happen this year and probably won't happen often. But I'd imagine like with father son selections they probably could choose to enter the draft proper.



Parish more than anything had his small moments where he made some highlight reel plays, certainly more so than playing a solid inside game. I don't regard Parish as an inside player generally or such a strong contested ball winner, so they're not two I'd really be comparing. Mathieson maybe more so given he is more inside and more of a contested ball winner than Parish, but even so Hopper showed he is on another level with his contested work.

With Parish I don't personally have him in the same conversation as Hopper (as per my power rankings on page one).

Heck, I'm toying with moving Clayton Oliver who was good today and has been these past few months ahead of Parish, with his impact at stoppages like Hopper yesterday very strong and that next best I saw this weekend. And Ryan Clarke who generally is rated some way behind Parish is another I rate ahead of Parish.

So when I get around to updating my power rankings, things are going to look very different and more different than usual to how clubs will be rating these talents. Particularly with my views with this years talls very different to what seems the concensus.

Curnow I'm open minded to the upside of. I'm not yet sure how good he can become as a midfielder. And that's something I'm up and down on, but interested to find out. I have no testing results on Curnow so I'm very interested to see how he tests all round.



Francis in that scenario is the pick, with Parish that most likely other consideration based on where most clubs seem to rate this years prospects.

Curnow may, but may not go inside the top 10, in the same way Lever could have but in the end didn't go inside the top 10 last year.



Weitering and Schache both have the opportunity to be among the better key defenders and key forwards respectively in this draft. Weitering may be the best key defender in the competition in time if things go right, and Schache has a shot at being a best five key forward in the competition. So they're both big time pieces to build around and will make things a lot easier in the rebuild, knowing those pieces are there and don't need to be found.



I don't know where you got that third top 10 pick from.

Hopper and Kennedy will be the two who will attract first round picks. Hopper will attract a bid probably around five. Kennedy around ten. Himmerberg may have a second round pick (let's say around pick 30).

These parts I haven't spent the time learning being new rules, and with rules changing every year I just can't be bothered learning them.

But I believe it's a 25% discount for academy talents to make it easier for those clubs with academies beyond having the bidding format. On top of that from what I understand clubs can also use those picks from next year as required to make up those points to get their players through their academies.

So while it sounds like a bid deal with so many worthwhile players and needing to come up with pretty good picks to get them all in the door, I expect it will be easier than sounds. And it should be the same story for Brisbane, even holding onto that top pick.



I'd talk about Parish more as a precision kick, rather than say a Pendlebury with all the time in the world to dispose of it. Parish doesn't have that kind of ability.

Pace is ok but not a point of difference, and by AFL standards only would have average pace.

Generally Parish is just reasonable at pretty much everything with his kick being what he does better than others.

To my continues surprise plenty of recruiters continue to talk glowingly about Parish's game. But I'm just not as extremely enthusiastic or seeing such an extremely high level pro.

Thanks mate. They sound like two very appetising cornerstones...

 

[SA_Hawker]

I'd love to see schache at Brisbane next year, at least he wants to be there.
Would Carlton consider pick 1+aish for pick 2+ Tom bell?
Brisbane would take a hit on aish but get the kf they are desperate for

 

[SafeAsMilk]

I'd love to see schache at Brisbane next year, at least he wants to be there.
Would Carlton consider pick 1+aish for pick 2+ Tom bell?
Brisbane would take a hit on aish but get the kf they are desperate for

Carlton will take Weitering anyway as far as I know, and I don't think Aish wants to come to Carlton anyway.

 

[SA_Hawker]

I've heard talk of aish and Carlton, but that may just be from carltons end
Every year since fev left Carlton have always been linked with key forwards, thought schache would be right up there alley,despite weitering being the better player

 

[SafeAsMilk]

I've heard talk of aish and Carlton, but that may just be from carltons end
Every year since fev left Carlton have always been linked with key forwards, thought schache would be right up there alley,despite weitering being the better player

We need both to be honest. Lions have a few quality big men, they just need to keep them and develop them. They'll also get Hipwood as an Academy player this year.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Did you actually read what knightmare wrote? Its like you completely ignored it and then just went ahead and gave your opinion on a pre-conceived idea.
I know Saints have their heart set on Parish. But is this just emotion talking? Bit of a worry if he isnt actually that quick.

You can decide for yourself if he's quick or not by looking at the footage of him at the 4.15 minute mark of this clip:

As I said earlier, to me he projects very much like a Leigh Montagna type at AFL level, in that most of his possessions will be uncontested, while also being able to win his share of contested ones and also clearances and that he'll run hard and fast all day long and just keep getting it and linking up and then use it well and gain his team plenty of meterage, even if he doesn't break the lines as much, or quite as fast as say a Savage (when he's on his game), or a Jason Johannisen, or Travis Colyer.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Did you actually read what knightmare wrote? Its like you completely ignored it and then just went ahead and gave your opinion on a pre-conceived idea.
I know Saints have their heart set on Parish. But is this just emotion talking? Bit of a worry if he isnt actually that quick.

He's quick don't worry about that.

Interesting defensive post, Con. Take a chill pill you big girl.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

You can decide for yourself if he's quick or not by looking at the footage of him at the 4.15 minute mark of this clip:

As I said earlier, to me he projects very much like a Leigh Montagna type at AFL level, in that most of his possessions will be uncontested, while also being able to win his share of contested ones and also clearances and that he'll run hard and fast all day long and just keep getting it and linking up and then use it well and gain his team plenty of meterage, even if he doesn't break the lines as much, or quite as fast as say a Savage (when he's on his game), or a Jason Johannisen, or Travis Colyer.

If Cal Twomey's opinion on Parish is anything to go by then this is a perfect representation of the way he plays. Cal has described Parish "as an offensive midfielder that takes the game forward". In other words he's a 'high metres gainer' type, the Joey comparison is spot on.

When you're talking about a mid that accumulates a lot of the ball, uses it well and gains metres that = high impact player, in my mind anyway.

 

[grundog49]

If Cal Twomey's opinion on Parish is anything to go by then this is a perfect representation of the way he plays. Cal has described Parish "as an offensive midfielder that takes the game forward". In other words he's a 'high metres gainer' type, the Joey comparison is spot on.

When you're talking about a mid that accumulates a lot of the ball, uses it well and gains metres that = high impact player, in my mind anyway.

The thing is he isn't gaining that meteridge you would like from a combo mid. Hes gaining 300 meters per game but if he wants to take his game to the next level like David Swallow and Lachie Whitfield have he needs to be more influential for the falcons. He needs to gain atleast 450 meters to be considered a 'high meter gainer'

 

[Knightmare]

I'd love to see schache at Brisbane next year, at least he wants to be there.
Would Carlton consider pick 1+aish for pick 2+ Tom bell?
Brisbane would take a hit on aish but get the kf they are desperate for

Carlton have pick 1 and Brisbane have pick 2. So it would actually be pick 1 and Bell for pick 2 and Aish, with Carlton finishing below Brisbane.

I expect that is what you mean and it just came out wrong.

As for the realism of a trade of this type. Bell I actually rate more highly than Aish. Bell in my view was Carlton's second best player after Cripps this season. So doing that trade I feel would be a big win for Brisbane actually, getting both pick 1 which gives them the choice of players and then the better certainly immediate talent who can really make their midfield better with his stoppage work.

For all we know, Carlton may prefer Weitering to Schache. So Brisbane may end up with Schache anyway.

Tom Bell I'd actually really like to see go to Gold Coast. Gold Coast really need more midfielders numbers, and Brisbane if anything even assuming Redden and Aish leave, need to find more midfield minutes to accommodate their deep midfield stocks, and that's before considering the addition of Keays who is a terrific midfielder.

If Carlton want Aish, Bell in a direct trade for Aish may be enough, and may interest Brisbane depending on their evaluation of Bell.

But again, Gold Coast should have more than enough players open to moving, or even appealing picks if they are motivated enough to get Bell.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

If Cal Twomey's opinion on Parish is anything to go by then this is a perfect representation of the way he plays. Cal has described Parish "as an offensive midfielder that takes the game forward". In other words he's a 'high metres gainer' type, the Joey comparison is spot on.

When you're talking about a mid that accumulates a lot of the ball, uses it well and gains metres that = high impact player, in my mind anyway.

If I watched him play I wouldn't find him offensive.

 

[ferrisb]

To KM and others, re Charlie Curnow:

He is rated to go around 5-10.

How much of his reputation is based on

- his physical attributes and what he could technically do
vs
- what he has actually produced on the field?

Cheers

 

[SA_Hawker]

Carlton have pick 1 and Brisbane have pick 2. So it would actually be pick 1 and Bell for pick 2 and Aish, with Carlton finishing below Brisbane.

I expect that is what you mean and it just came out wrong.

As for the realism of a trade of this type. Bell I actually rate more highly than Aish. Bell in my view was Carlton's second best player after Cripps this season. So doing that trade I feel would be a big win for Brisbane actually, getting both pick 1 which gives them the choice of players and then the better certainly immediate talent who can really make their midfield better with his stoppage work.

For all we know, Carlton may prefer Weitering to Schache. So Brisbane may end up with Schache anyway.

Tom Bell I'd actually really like to see go to Gold Coast. Gold Coast really need more midfielders numbers, and Brisbane if anything even assuming Redden and Aish leave, need to find more midfield minutes to accommodate their deep midfield stocks, and that's before considering the addition of Keays who is a terrific midfielder.

If Carlton want Aish, Bell in a direct trade for Aish may be enough, and may interest Brisbane depending on their evaluation of Bell.

But again, Gold Coast should have more than enough players open to moving, or even appealing picks if they are motivated enough to get Bell.

I have no doubts about aish's ability, I saw him dominate in norwoods senior premiership side for two years before being drafted. Plus he came fourth in last years rising star
From what I saw of bell this year he was very good, reminiscent of kouta back in the day
I think in the not too distant future aish will be the better player, hence the idea of the swap of draft picks

Just depends if aish will move to Carlton or if he has his heart set on Collingwood, if the rumours are true

 

[jpsmith]

KM, is your line of work recruiting or analysis-type based. Or have you ever thought of going down that career path?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, is your line of work recruiting or analysis-type based. Or have you ever thought of going down that career path?

I would certainly be open to getting into recruiting or analysis for an AFL club.

To KM and others, re Charlie Curnow:

He is rated to go around 5-10.

How much of his reputation is based on

- his physical attributes and what he could technically do
vs
- what he has actually produced on the field?

Cheers

Curnow probably goes more 5-15 I'm increasingly guessing, and probably closer to 15 than 5.

But overall he is rated highly while certainly in part on production as he still has played strong footy when available, in larger part I would say on his intriguing potential and based on his physical profile.

Most people seem to project Curnow from what I can gather as a midfielder rather than a key forward where he has played most of his footy this year, so given that speculative element, it is perception of of potential upside over performance.

 

[deedog2]

Jake Lovett KM?

Anyone else interested or would drive up the price?

 

[Knightmare]

Jake Lovett KM?

Anyone else interested or would drive up the price?

View attachment 170741

Great photo.

And I loved the mark nearing the end of final quarter.

But that was his highlight in that game.

Nothing else he did moved him up my draft board.

Lovett was only invited to the state screenings, so there isn't such great interest from other clubs. So you'd be lucky to get another club late draft put forward a bid on him. You could probably get him as a rookie if you wanted to. And in Melbourne's situation, I'd be thinking more along the lines of whether to take him as a rookie or pass entirely.

But Melbourne may rate him more highly than I do.

 

[Yoda_]

Would you project always as a better player than Parish?

Keays could come in and play from the get go if his strong NEAFL form was anything to go by

 

[Knightmare]

Would you project always as a better player than Parish?

Keays could come in and play from the get go if his strong NEAFL form was anything to go by

Keays I feel in the immediate and long term will outperform Parish.

He has weapons to have an impact at AFL level, but also performance on the board.

People tend to rate Parish around four and Keays around ten. I tend to see it the other way around.

 

[Yabadoo22]

Hey km
How high could you see Sam weideman getting drafted? Could you see the bombers taking him at pick 4 as they are in need of another key forward

 

[Knightmare]

Hey km
How high could you see Sam weideman getting drafted? Could you see the bombers taking him at pick 4 as they are in need of another key forward

Five onward Weideman may receive consideration.

Can't see Essendon considering him when the likes of Francis and Parish are available. The talent disparity is just too great.