Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

IMO Collingwood has one of the most unbalanced, talentless lists in the comp. I'm sniffing real spoon potential in 2018

Unbalanced I'd mostly agree with, with Collingwood's KPP stocks the worst in the competition and Moore the only worthwhile young one.

Outside of Collingwood's KPP stocks. Collingwood have a solid list, filling most other list needs and having enough talent and good young players coming through.

Good youth has never been an issue for Collingwood. Only the continuation of quality play of their veterans - Paul Licuria, Josh Fraser, Alan Didak, Nick Maxwell, Dale Thomas, Alan Toovey, Brent Macaffer, Sharrod Wellingham, Chris Dawes, Heritier Lumumba, Dane Swan, Travis Cloke, Ben Reid.

de goey is easily collingwoods most talented young player. the worrying thing for collingwood is that he has hardly put together a string of good matches let alone good seasons as i would argue mills, heeney and jones have.

do you have a link to your final power ratings for 2016, as i would be interested to read what you had to say about florent and hayward?

De Goey I liked in his first season with his contested work particularly impressive.

2016/2017 I mostly wasn't as enthused as I had hoped, though his close to 2017 with some match-winning performances late season leaves optimism high that he will become a very good mid/fwd.

From the same draft, Maynard has done more and is one of a few in the conversation of Collingwood's better young players.

Sean Darcy surpassed Grundy’s first year record (especially in hit outs and tackles) and has come back to pre season training a completely different body shape. Watch this space!

Sean Darcy was the big surprise last year.

Didn't rate him going into last years draft. Wasn't a standout in the TAC Cup. Went boom this year.

It will be great to watch his progress in 2018. Have no doubt he's putting in the work after being an average production, fairly low impact player in the TAC Cup in 2016.

It's pretty staggering (even taking out his one disposal, two hitout game) that a guy who kicked no goals from seven games and averaged from those other games 10.33 disposals, 3.67 tackles, 2 marks and 33.83 hitouts per game has achieved better numbers at AFL level in his first season, with only his marks per game from those categories lower at AFL level.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Treloar sneaks into the top 20 probably just



Danger
Martin
Fyfe
Sloane
Kelly
Zorko
Crouch
Gray
Gibbs
Kennedy
Merrett
Bontompelli
Cotchin
Selwood
Ablett
Pendlebury
Cripps
Oliver
Steven
Treloar - 20th


The following all have claims to be as good or better than Treloar
Hannebury
Shuey
Coniglio
Ward
Libba
Ross
Viney
Sidebottom

The names you list above in your ranking of Collingwood's youth tho is not worth listing after the first 6 or so.

There's Grundy, de Goey, Maynard, then that's about it.

As others have mentioned, Adams and Treloar and WHE and Crisp are not youth, they are senior players.

Scharenburg could be something, but there are huge question marks given his body. Moore has looked less likely than likely so far.

Then a lot of mediocre flankers not worth ranking.

It's not doom and gloom for the pies, but they are behind a number of sides in terms of quality of youth.

 

[Sector 7G]

Treloar sneaks into the top 20 probably just



Danger
Martin
Fyfe
Sloane
Kelly
Zorko
Crouch
Gray
Gibbs
Kennedy
Merrett
Bontompelli
Cotchin
Selwood
Ablett
Pendlebury
Cripps
Oliver
Steven
Treloar - 20th


The following all have claims to be as good or better than Treloar
Hannebury
Shuey
Coniglio
Ward
Libba
Ross
Viney
Sidebottom

You can add another 10 names to the just as good as if not better list: Beams,M Murphy,McRae,Wines, NJones,Heppell,Shiels,Parker,Adams,Duncan

 

[strauchanie59]

It depends on where you are drawing the line with young.

In the Carlton example I assessed young as being born 1993 and later.

Given that, Collingwood have: Jordan De Goey, Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg, Taylor Adams, James Aish, Callum Brown, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos, Kayle Kirby, Tim Broomhead, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Rupert Wills, Sam McLarty, Brayden Maynard, Ben Crocker, Josh Smith, Sam Murray, Jaidyn Stephenson, Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown, Flynn Appleby and Brody Mihocek.

That's a strong group in that age group.

Brayden Sier and Max Lynch are two I don't see making it.

Sam McLarty is slightly against the odds (although an early call), Josh Smith is depth for mine, James Aish is depth unless he has a breakout season. Rupert Wills, Ben Crocker. Brody Mihocek are capable depth. Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown and Flynn Appleby are all potentially developable. Likewise Josh Daicos.

The others are looking the goods. Brodie Grundy is the best young ruckman in the game. Treloar and Adams among the best mids. De Goey is very good. Scharenberg's numbers are comparable to Jake Lever which is impressive for his first full season, if he stays healthy, he will have a very strong career. Maynard down back is very good and can take that next step and in time may get midfield minutes. Darcy Moore has the scope to be a very good KPP/ruckman - I don't view him as a future superstar with some mild injury questionmarks and average production to this point despite attributes shown. Jaidyn Stephenson can be good. Tom Phillips is a good-very good wing/hf who can keep improving. Sam Murray should be a regular and has the scope to be best 22 and add drive off hb. Tom Langdon is best 22 and a very good intercepter. Will Hoskin-Elliott is capable best 22 without being a star. Tim Broomhead has best 22 chances if he can become more consistent and stay healthy. Kayle Kirby has best 22 chances if he improves his fitness, VFL stuff was excellent in year one. Jack Crisp is just inside the best 22 and is good enough. Callum Brown is developable.

--
While I rate Collingwood's youth reasonably highly, as I long have, the issue of player development after four years in Collingwood's system, the rapid decline of the majority of players in their late 20s and as soon as they hit 30, in addition to a poor group of KPPs, likely see Collingwood again miss the top 8 in 2018 with an 11-15 finish around my prediction at this point.

A fair assessment? That's how I see Collingwood.



I don't view Richmond's list as one of the best lists in the competition (the premiership was won on the back of supreme list health and crowd energy and enthusiasm that fuelled Richmond's run in a similar though more extreme way than Collingwood's 2010 premiership).

Richmond are such a unique team. One or two key injuries and Richmond can't win a game (see pre-2017 when Deledio missed games record v when he played) but get that completely list healthy through that best 22 players as per this year, and Richmond can get hot and stay hot.

I also don't regard Richmond's youth in the better half as was implied by my exclusion of Richmond from those teams I was regarding as having among the better young in the competition to understand that it is Richmond's experience rather than youth that wins games for Richmond.

In terms of youth (again following the same as previously limiting youth to 1993 and younger). Nankervis (1994) is the only Richmond player rated inside the top 200 players in the AFL.com overall player standings. There is a lack of star power from the clubs youth. Rioli can be very good and is tracking very well. Jack Graham had a promising debut season and Shai Bolton is developable. I liked the way Richmond drafted with Higgins an immediate player, Balta who could be anything and Coleman-Jones who is a potentially developable forward/ruckman. Otherwise I'm not loving Richmond's youth with a lot of role players and lower level contributors.

It takes going through list by list to realise that Richmond have among the worst youth in the competition. West Coast, Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney all are also thin on good youth and are in that conversation, with West Coast probably that worst ranking of that group for youth.

Comments suggesting a club lacks good youth should not be taken as offensive. Many of the best teams and most likely contenders tend not to have much in the way of good youth. And flags rarely are won as a result of youth, with (developed) men generally winning you games, with young players tending to lack consistency.

Jones, Heeney, Mills, Papley, Hewett, Hayward, Melican (all under 23) have played at a good enough, consistent rate during 2016/17, while Aliir showed in '16 he could be anything (unfortunate for him that Melican broke out this season) and Florent showed glimpses. Throw Blakey in the squad in 2019 and it's not looking as dire as you make it out to be.

Hewett, in particular, doesn't get the love he deserves. 3rd at Sydney this season for CP and 3rd for tackles in about 75% game time.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Best youth in the comp in rough order

Brisbane
Gold Coast
Carlton
Melbourne

 

[HedgeFund]

You can add another 10 names to the just as good as if not better list: Beams,M Murphy,McRae,Wines, NJones,Heppell,Shiels,Parker,Adams,Duncan

Umm.....who finished third in the 2017 Brownlow?

Anyone? Anyone?

Wears #3 for Hawthorn? Anyone?

 

[Ian Dunross]

Still not a top 20 midfielder

 

[HedgeFund]

Still not a top 20 midfielder

Yeah - certainly wouldn’t be in front of all those St Kilda players who beat him in the AFLCA, Leigh Matthews Trophy and Brownlow voting, and made the All-Australian Team (where he was starting rover).

Which would be none.

 

[THE_GUN]

Sorry Knightmare but i think you are over rating Collingwood's list, There are a couple of nice players but i see alot of players who are a known quality and also alot of re treads that just wont take the club much further than 5-10

Aish,Mayne,Thomas,Broomhead,Wells,Greenwood,Blair,Fasolo,Crisp these players are what they are and would hardly call them players that would take collingwood to a flag. Pendles 30 , Varcoe 30 ,Sidebottom 27 ,

I just dont see where the young talent is on collingwoods list , As Jack Dyer once said there are alot of good ordinary players there with a sprinkling of class/A grade in Pendles,Sidey,Treloar,Adams.

I think if Collingwood have 1 maybe 2 more years of similar results not only will Buckley be gone but collingwood will find them self's in a situation very similar to when MM left (sacked) from Carlton and looking at a complete rebuild.

 

[Knightmare]

For those looking for my midfield top 20 (as a rough projection of 2018 expected performance *without spending all day crunching the numbers and not discriminating against any with injuries with an assumption of full health to reflect the quality of player):
1. Danger
2. Dusty
3. Fyfe
4. Ablett
5. Pendles
6. Oliver
7. Cripps
8. Sloane
9. J.Selwood
10. Bontempelli
11. Kennedy
12. Shiel
13. Parker
14. Mitchell
15. M.Crouch
16. Merrett
17. Kelly
18. Zorko
19. Treloar
20. Rockliff

Jones, Heeney, Mills, Papley, Hewett, Hayward, Melican (all under 23) have played at a good enough, consistent rate during 2016/17, while Aliir showed in '16 he could be anything (unfortunate for him that Melican broke out this season) and Florent showed glimpses. Throw Blakey in the squad in 2019 and it's not looking as dire as you make it out to be.

Hewett, in particular, doesn't get the love he deserves. 3rd at Sydney this season for CP and 3rd for tackles in about 75% game time.

I revised by earlier comments on Sydney earlier on.

Aliir and Melican I'm not massive on.

The others though I agree are strong young talents.

Hewett I agree with you on. He's a contested baller and one I'd look to give greater midfield minutes to in the future.

 

[strauchanie59]

For those looking for my midfield top 20 (as a rough projection of 2018 expected performance *without spending all day crunching the numbers and not discriminating against any with injuries with an assumption of full health to reflect the quality of player):
1. Danger
2. Dusty
3. Fyfe
4. Ablett
5. Pendles
6. Oliver
7. Cripps
8. Sloane
9. J.Selwood
10. Bontempelli
11. Kennedy
12. Shiel
13. Parker
14. Mitchell
15. M.Crouch
16. Merrett
17. Kelly
18. Zorko
19. Treloar
20. Rockliff



I revised by earlier comments on Sydney earlier on.

Aliir and Melican I'm not massive on.

The others though I agree are strong young talents.

Hewett I agree with you on. He's a contested baller and one I'd look to give greater midfield minutes to in the future.

What's the knock on Melican? Rarely put a foot wrong in his debut season.

 

[THE_GUN]

For those looking for my midfield top 20 (as a rough projection of 2018 expected performance *without spending all day crunching the numbers and not discriminating against any with injuries with an assumption of full health to reflect the quality of player):
1. Danger
2. Dusty
3. Fyfe
4. Ablett
5. Pendles
6. Oliver
7. Cripps
8. Sloane
9. J.Selwood
10. Bontempelli
11. Kennedy
12. Shiel
13. Parker
14. Mitchell
15. M.Crouch
16. Merrett
17. Kelly
18. Zorko
19. Treloar
20. Rockliff

WOW knightmare !! You seriously dont rate Trent Cotchin in your top 20 Mids'

Might be an idea to crunch the numbers and have a good think about that, I think he would certainly be better than atleast 5-10 of the players you have listed

 

[HedgeFund]

WOW knightmare !! You seriously dont rate Trent Cotchin in your top 20 Mids'

Might be an idea to crunch the numbers and have a good think about that, I think he would certainly be better than atleast 5-10 of the players you have listed

“Computer says no”

 

[Knightmare]

What's the knock on Melican? Rarely put a foot wrong in his debut season.

He's an able stopper who can play a role, but in today's game as a key defender, you need to be able to intercept and rebound which isn't what Melican does. He's one I'd consider as ideal depth, but in an ideal world, not a best 22 player.

WOW knightmare !! You seriously dont rate Trent Cotchin in your top 20 Mids'

Might be an idea to crunch the numbers and have a good think about that, I think he would certainly be better than atleast 5-10 of the players you have listed

I did briefly ponder Cotchin, but to confirm, Cotchin is in my top 20.

His numbers don't stack up favourably v the other top end mids.

590 disposals per 25 games is well below those others listed (equal 62nd on average per game). On averages per game he is also only equal 20th in contested possessions, equal 22nd in centre clearances, equal 29th in clearances, equal 25th in inside 50s, equal 38th in tackles. Kicked a good but not outstanding 17 goals from 25 games.

Certainly not a top 10 mid in the game. I'd place Cotchin in the discussion for 20-30 of all mids in the competition.

 

[THE_GUN]

Then its all about numbers and not how they play ?

Looks like its a supercoach thread rather than player comparison -

 

[Newatthis]

Then its all about numbers and not how they play ?

Looks like its a supercoach thread rather than player comparison -

Yes it's all about the numbers not what else they do in the game

 

[6yearsold]

was surprised to see how highly you rated ronke in your 2016 ratings considering we picked him up as a rookie.

 

[Sector 7G]

Then its all about numbers and not how they play ?

Looks like its a supercoach thread rather than player comparison -

That was the big improvements in Cotch's game this year. He stopped chasing cheap possession behind the ball that add no value, slow down the ball movement and result in you being a player down at the next contest. He got the ball in more damaging locations last season despite it reducing his SC scores.

 

[LukeHodge15]

Kelly at 17 is just ludicrous Knightmare. Love your work but that's crazy crazy talk

 

[Knightmare]

was surprised to see how highly you rated ronke in your 2016 ratings considering we picked him up as a rookie.

Ronke ticked a lot of key boxes. High % contested ball winner. Production solid. Averaged more than a goal per game. Has the acceleration.

A good value pick as a rookie I felt last year. Hopefully he comes on at AFL level next season. Opportunity will be the challenge given the strength and depth of Sydney's midfield.

Kelly at 17 is just ludicrous Knightmare. Love your work but that's crazy crazy talk

Kelly could be one I revise from that swiftly completed list. 9-13 maybe. On review, his tackle numbers are much higher than I had expected. And with his contested possessions, clearances, inside 50s and goals per game also very sound. Anywhere around 10 is right.

 

[GoGrows]

Kelly could be one I revise from that swiftly completed list. 9-13 maybe. On review, his tackle numbers are much higher than I had expected. And with his contested possessions, clearances, inside 50s and goals per game also very sound. Anywhere around 10 is right.

Do you feel that your analysis might be too reliant on statistics rather than what you see during the games?

 

[Ian Dunross]

Definitely the case

Anyone who ranks Treloar for example ahead of Cotchin is a muppet

And I suggest that they're either blinded by bias and/or relying on the stat sheet

 

[Knightmare]

Do you feel that your analysis might be too reliant on statistics rather than what you see during the games?

Stats matter.

Cotchin is a damaging ball user and that does count and as others have identified he is winning it in important positions. Placing in the 20s in all the key categories by position, averaging less than a goal per game and placing outside the top 60 for disposals per game.

He was a top 20 midfielder, if not top 10 midfielder in 2011 and 2012 when his disposal, clearance, inside 50 and goal per game numbers were all higher. 2017 is his better recent season with his tackle numbers at a career high with his other numbers fairly similar to recent years. But you have to find more than 600 disposals per 25 games. An average of 23.6 disposals per game for a midfielder who averages less than a goal per game isn't elite in today's game.

 

[GoGrows]

Stats matter.

They do matter. But, AFL is the sort of game where I think one should use stats to clarify what they are seeing, rather than it being the be all and end all that can explain the players value as it can be in other sports such as baseball and to a lesser extent NFL.

so many variables in AFL that i think stats can very much muddy the waters. AFL is similar to basketball in that respect.

not to mention the fact that the stats that matter in AFL are not actually available to the public.

i would challenge you to watch games without having access to the stats and note down what you are seeing. its amazing how much our opinion on players is influenced by the box score and not by the influence they are having on games.

 

[GoGrows]

An average of 23.6 disposals per game for a midfielder who averages less than a goal per game isn't elite in today's game.

depends on how you look at it.

id rather 23.6 disposals from Cotchin than 30 from Taylor Adams.

a difference of one disposal per quarter is immaterial to me. but its easy to focus on numbers when we put them at the epicentre of the argument rather than the quality of actual play.