Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
Knightmare said:
'One decent season' is a harsh assessment of Lever. I'd say he has had two and a half excellent seasons. 2016-2018, his last two seasons with Adelaide were excellent and that first half of 2018 for Melbourne he played a complete brand of football and was one of the best backs in the competition whether categorised as key or general.



I currently have Downie around 25. He's not inside my top-20 and he'd be outside top-20 for most recruiters at this stage.

Each year I anticipate the late development of a number of prospects, so types I rate at a particular spot I assume will drop on average by 50%. eg. my 20th rated player would drop to around 30th, as I see more of others and some who have had less exposure or improve later. So based on that I may have Downie assuming average development to be rated late 30s by the end of next year.

With Downie I'll be watching this year to see whether he can start winning more of his own ball. He has a nice kick on him and moves well. Works hard both ways, but when the contested side of ones game isn't great, probability of AFL career is generally low, so he'll need to add that over the next 12 months, even though he's sure to remain more outside.

If Downie is to be someone I'd take first round. I'd want him to advance from his 16d per game to more like 25d per game with 10cp. And I'd say while possible it's against the odds.
Click to expand...
Youd think he’ll play a lot more on ball next year so his numbers will go up. Although I agree with you on the cp numbers I didn’t realize they were so low for him, which is surprising given his build.
 
andleanback said:
Youd think he’ll play a lot more on ball next year so his numbers will go up. Although I agree with you on the cp numbers I didn’t realize they were so low for him, which is surprising given his build.
Click to expand...
Have you looked at Tom Cutlers contested possession numbers?

Very outside, standard wing. Big body, athletic and big kick. Doesn’t crack in to often.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

briztoon said:
Have you looked at Tom Cutlers contested possession numbers?

Very outside, standard wing. Big body, athletic and big kick. Doesn’t crack in to often.
Click to expand...
If you looked at Tom cutler before seeing him play you’d think he’s one of the stars of the comp. Unfortunately he just struggles to find the pill consistently.
 
Ppollen said:
Knightmare
Thoughts on GWS's draft, in particular their final 2 selections?

Who would you draft with their selections?

Cheers
Click to expand...

4 - Flanders
10 - Green
51 - Nyuon (one of the rare times I wouldn't go best available with GWS having no room for Byrnes with the midfield overstocked)
65 - Shute
RD
15 - A.Baker
28 - redraft delisted player (ideally would prefer Sokol)
36 - redraft delisted player (ideally would prefer Jye Bolton)
40 - redraft delisted player (ideally would prefer Sam Lowson)

*Of those last two. Hutchesson I wouldn't have picked. Pressures well but doesn't hit the scoreboard enough and is too similar to others picked in recent years without necessarily being better. Riccardi is another strange selection with GWS looking well stocked for key forwards, I like him as a prospect and think on some lists he could break through, but not as a list fit for the Giants.
 
Knightmare said:
There is the chance of reoccurance but with junior prospects you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Whether it's Chris Judd with his shoulders, Jake Stringer coming back from that broken leg. There are a lot of guys who have had major injuries as juniors and far outperformed their draft positions.

Brodie Kemp may/may not be that next guy. But with his talent, he's one I'd be taking a shot on in the teens.

If I was completely put off from taking Kemp for some medical reason, I'd otherwise be taking Robertson and then probably trading back a few spots and taking Gould who was never going to go first round or securing a future 2020 first round choice.

I don't think Geelong messed up in taking Stephens though. He wouldn't be my choice, but I like him none the less. So physically advanced and has the ball winning + acceleration out of there.
Click to expand...

All the best for CMass and the NY to you Km... thanks for all you work thru the year....

on Geelong drafting of CS ...

CS should be a strong afl player for us. Aynthing more than that is conjecture and only time will tell..Plenty on our board were thinking Robertson or Kemp ..and when neither were taken ..it was a bit of a surprise but I trust Swells ..he has his logic.. The concern id say we have long term is we really lack that star power ..once DAS retire do we have anthing more than good to average types..which pushes us towards trade again. Dangerfield and Selwood were both top 10 mids.. and its debatable if we really can replace them without having that type of pick at draft bar some poor choices by other clubs.

General question on CooperS and all draft picks I guess. He rated top10 in running vert, 2k and yoyo ..but how did he go in the other criteria. How quick is he in the sprint or how good is he with ball in hand etc.

Why don't the afl once someone is drafted release their info... Is cooper stephens quick in relative terms ..who knows till next year I guess but it would have been nice to see if he managed something quicker than 4 seconds..
 
Turbocat said:
All the best for CMass and the NY to you Km... thanks for all you work thru the year....

on Geelong drafting of CS ...

CS should be a strong afl player for us. Aynthing more than that is conjecture and only time will tell..Plenty on our board were thinking Robertson or Kemp ..and when neither were taken ..it was a bit of a surprise but I trust Swells ..he has his logic.. The concern id say we have long term is we really lack that star power ..once DAS retire do we have anthing more than good to average types..which pushes us towards trade again. Dangerfield and Selwood were both top 10 mids.. and its debatable if we really can replace them without having that type of pick at draft bar some poor choices by other clubs.

General question on CooperS and all draft picks I guess. He rated top10 in running vert, 2k and yoyo ..but how did he go in the other criteria. How quick is he in the sprint or how good is he with ball in hand etc.

Why don't the afl once someone is drafted release their info... Is cooper stephens quick in relative terms ..who knows till next year I guess but it would have been nice to see if he managed something quicker than 4 seconds..
Click to expand...

I don't get the testing data either but in game Cooper Stephens is quick. He has that burst from stoppages and is seemingly always on the move and always working. While there are others I like more, he's one of those were I don't look at it as Geelong messing up. Stephens is a good mid and if healthy can play next year, with his body so advanced. His distribution by hand is good but his kicking lacks the consistency and hurt factor of others which is why I rate him behind Schoenberg and Byrnes despite being smaller mids.

Stephens is something like the Worpel equivalent in this draft. Worpel as a junior similarly had the build and acceleration out of stoppages but wasn't a good kick. If Geelong can do with Stephens what Hawthorn did with Worpel to develop his kicking, Geelong have found a good mid. It's his kicking consistency/minimal scoreboard impact/unclear versatility that are his weaknesses that he'll have to work away at. His game otherwise is very advanced and strong.

Geelong will need the likes of Constable, Narkle, Parsons, Atkins, Fogarty, Parfitt and Cockatoo, aside from Stephens to keep improving so that there is someone once Ablett/Selwood/Steven/Danger/Duncan/Menegola/Guthrie are all done. Danger/Duncan/Menegola/Guthrie should still be around for a while yet to support those younger guys as they develop and others will surely come in via the draft/trade/free agency over the next few seasons anyway.
 
Knightmare said:
I don't get the testing data either but in game Cooper Stephens is quick. He has that burst from stoppages and is seemingly always on the move and always working. While there are others I like more, he's one of those were I don't look at it as Geelong messing up. Stephens is a good mid and if healthy can play next year, with his body so advanced. His distribution by hand is good but his kicking lacks the consistency and hurt factor of others which is why I rate him behind Schoenberg and Byrnes despite being smaller mids.

Stephens is something like the Worpel equivalent in this draft. Worpel as a junior similarly had the build and acceleration out of stoppages but wasn't a good kick. If Geelong can do with Stephens what Hawthorn did with Worpel to develop his kicking, Geelong have found a good mid. It's his kicking consistency/minimal scoreboard impact/unclear versatility that are his weaknesses that he'll have to work away at. His game otherwise is very advanced and strong.

Geelong will need the likes of Constable, Narkle, Parsons, Atkins, Fogarty, Parfitt and Cockatoo, aside from Stephens to keep improving so that there is someone once Ablett/Selwood/Steven/Danger/Duncan/Menegola/Guthrie are all done. Danger/Duncan/Menegola/Guthrie should still be around for a while yet to support those younger guys as they develop and others will surely come in via the draft/trade/free agency over the next few seasons anyway.
Click to expand...
You dont get the data proves my point.. in an era when the afl want to make the combine and the draft a product ..they need to reciprocate and give talking points ..rather than the same old humdrum. The in draft trading has help with the draft being entertaining but more need to be done. We are not talking about players who are as well known as in the usa etc. Even thru the year the quality of the Nab League coverage does varie..sometimes I found it very difficult to watch on youtube.

I believe like Joel Corey ..CS could be a strong player and his ceiling is up to him. Big strong body...He will never been Duncan by foot..but neither is Dangerfield.

The players you mention all lack obvious future star.. we have not drafted someone like that since Selwood. Parsons will be a dry well imo... and Fogarty has foot skill issues as well. Time will tell I guess ..early picks do not always give a club a Penddlebery either...

Again .... thanks for your work ..and opinions... I dont always 100% agree..but they are 100% always interesting to read...
 
Knightmare said:
I don't get the testing data either but in game Cooper Stephens is quick. He has that burst from stoppages and is seemingly always on the move and always working. While there are others I like more, he's one of those were I don't look at it as Geelong messing up. Stephens is a good mid and if healthy can play next year, with his body so advanced. His distribution by hand is good but his kicking lacks the consistency and hurt factor of others which is why I rate him behind Schoenberg and Byrnes despite being smaller mids.

Stephens is something like the Worpel equivalent in this draft. Worpel as a junior similarly had the build and acceleration out of stoppages but wasn't a good kick. If Geelong can do with Stephens what Hawthorn did with Worpel to develop his kicking, Geelong have found a good mid. It's his kicking consistency/minimal scoreboard impact/unclear versatility that are his weaknesses that he'll have to work away at. His game otherwise is very advanced and strong.

Geelong will need the likes of Constable, Narkle, Parsons, Atkins, Fogarty, Parfitt and Cockatoo, aside from Stephens to keep improving so that there is someone once Ablett/Selwood/Steven/Danger/Duncan/Menegola/Guthrie are all done. Danger/Duncan/Menegola/Guthrie should still be around for a while yet to support those younger guys as they develop and others will surely come in via the draft/trade/free agency over the next few seasons anyway.
Click to expand...
As a junior, Worpel was never a “bad” kick. He just tended to throw the ball on boot and kick blindly.

When he actually took that extra second to assess and pick a target, he was a good kick.

But due to playing as an inside mid, in congestion, he mostly just blazed away without looking or picking a target.

Nor did Worpel burst from stoppages. He had the power and build to break tackles, but not the burst associated with players like Dangerfield, or Schoenberg this year.

Worpel was one paced, and lacked agility both inside the contest, and outside the contest.

It was more his lack of speed and agility, and being a one position player that saw him “drop” in the draft.

The main thing Hawthorn have done is get Worpel to strip some of his muscle weight, making him leaner, and to take that extra time to look for targets instead of just blindly roosting to ball forward.
 
Turbocat said:
You dont get the data proves my point.. in an era when the afl want to make the combine and the draft a product ..they need to reciprocate and give talking points ..rather than the same old humdrum. The in draft trading has help with the draft being entertaining but more need to be done. We are not talking about players who are as well known as in the usa etc. Even thru the year the quality of the Nab League coverage does varie..sometimes I found it very difficult to watch on youtube.

I believe like Joel Corey ..CS could be a strong player and his ceiling is up to him. Big strong body...He will never been Duncan by foot..but neither is Dangerfield.

The players you mention all lack obvious future star.. we have not drafted someone like that since Selwood. Parsons will be a dry well imo... and Fogarty has foot skill issues as well. Time will tell I guess ..early picks do not always give a club a Penddlebery either...

Again .... thanks for your work ..and opinions... I dont always 100% agree..but they are 100% always interesting to read...
Click to expand...

I agree with you it would be great to see all the data out there. What about hand sizes? Wingspans? I'd love to see it all out there. The more information is out there, the more the draft community even outside draft land can develop knowledge and develop theories clubs haven't considered.

Stephens has a decent ceiling. He's someone I regard similarly to Schoenberg and Byrnes. The extra height helps but I find he doesn't impact games in as many ways and his production at least when he last played while still high wasn't quite on the same level.

It seems clubs don't share this view based on how highly they rated guys who weren't playing this year, but the likes of Stephens among others who don't play in a year, I base their play off when they last played what they could/couldn't do and their numbers then. Had Stephens been available and playing this year, as he was ahead of them in my calculations during the preseason, he may well have stayed ahead, but with those other two moving past Stephens' 2018 performances, I couldn't quite have him in front of them. Geelong I feel are good developers of talent and Geelong feel like the right spot for Stephens, so he definitely has a big chance to exceed my expectations.

briztoon said:
As a junior, Worpel was never a “bad” kick. He just tended to throw the ball on boot and kick blindly.

When he actually took that extra second to assess and pick a target, he was a good kick.

But due to playing as an inside mid, in congestion, he mostly just blazed away without looking or picking a target.

Nor did Worpel burst from stoppages. He had the power and build to break tackles, but not the burst associated with players like Dangerfield, or Schoenberg this year.

Worpel was one paced, and lacked agility both inside the contest, and outside the contest.

It was more his lack of speed and agility, and being a one position player that saw him “drop” in the draft.

The main thing Hawthorn have done is get Worpel to strip some of his muscle weight, making him leaner, and to take that extra time to look for targets instead of just blindly roosting to ball forward.
Click to expand...

Worpel had moments where he showed a burst so I disagree with you on the suggestion as a junior he was one paced. I'm not talking a Dangerfield burst. But something more like a Dusty Martin burst where he'd sometimes burst out of stoppages and as you say it was that power to break tackles. Cooper Stephens has a bit of that too, though he's the more athletic/running leaning of the pair and did that more often. On Worpel as a kick, even aside from his blazing away kicks, he had numerous just howlers throughout the season. Always had the penetration but consistency was a real problem for him whether at stoppages or even in general play.

I agree with you on what Worpel has add to his game, though I'd say consistency by foot - not just from stoppages but general play, even aside from the taking more time and not blasting away as much as been big for him. Conditioning/mobility wasn't the problem for me as much as his kicking. Based on what he was doing at the time though, he was one where he shouldn't have nearly fallen as far as he did in the draft. He's exceeding expectations thanks to Hawthorn's great player development, but him having success and instant success shouldn't be surprising to any watching him as a junior.
 
Knightmare said:
I agree with you it would be great to see all the data out there. What about hand sizes? Wingspans? I'd love to see it all out there. The more information is out there, the more the draft community even outside draft land can develop knowledge and develop theories clubs haven't considered.

Stephens has a decent ceiling. He's someone I regard similarly to Schoenberg and Byrnes. The extra height helps but I find he doesn't impact games in as many ways and his production at least when he last played while still high wasn't quite on the same level.

It seems clubs don't share this view based on how highly they rated guys who weren't playing this year, but the likes of Stephens among others who don't play in a year, I base their play off when they last played what they could/couldn't do and their numbers then. Had Stephens been available and playing this year, as he was ahead of them in my calculations during the preseason, he may well have stayed ahead, but with those other two moving past Stephens' 2018 performances, I couldn't quite have him in front of them. Geelong I feel are good developers of talent and Geelong feel like the right spot for Stephens, so he definitely has a big chance to exceed my expectations.



Worpel had moments where he showed a burst so I disagree with you on the suggestion as a junior he was one paced. I'm not talking a Dangerfield burst. But something more like a Dusty Martin burst where he'd sometimes burst out of stoppages and as you say it was that power to break tackles. Cooper Stephens has a bit of that too, though he's the more athletic/running leaning of the pair and did that more often. On Worpel as a kick, even aside from his blazing away kicks, he had numerous just howlers throughout the season. Always had the penetration but consistency was a real problem for him whether at stoppages or even in general play.

I agree with you on what Worpel has add to his game, though I'd say consistency by foot - not just from stoppages but general play, even aside from the taking more time and not blasting away as much as been big for him. Conditioning/mobility wasn't the problem for me as much as his kicking. Based on what he was doing at the time though, he was one where he shouldn't have nearly fallen as far as he did in the draft. He's exceeding expectations thanks to Hawthorn's great player development, but him having success and instant success shouldn't be surprising to any watching him as a junior.
Click to expand...
I agree that he shouldn’t have fallen in the draft. Not that my opinion means diddly squat in recruiter land, but I considered Worpel a late first or early second round talent in ‘17. Repeatedly said as much on the Lions board during the year.
 
briztoon said:
I agree that he shouldn’t have fallen in the draft. Not that my opinion means diddly squat in recruiter land, but I considered Worpel a late first or early second round talent in ‘17. Repeatedly said as much on the Lions board during the year.
Click to expand...

23 in my power rankings and I suspect a lot of other people liked him around that late first and early second round mark also. Was among my predicted top handful for immediate impact, as I'm sure he was for most.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

briztoon said:
The main thing Hawthorn have done is get Worpel to strip some of his muscle weight, making him leaner, and to take that extra time to look for targets instead of just blindly roosting to ball forward.
Click to expand...

they have? He’s still a butcher by foot
 
briztoon said:
I agree that he shouldn’t have fallen in the draft. Not that my opinion means diddly squat in recruiter land, but I considered Worpel a late first or early second round talent in ‘17. Repeatedly said as much on the Lions board during the year.
Click to expand...
You and me both. :thumbsu:
 
Caj said:
no it’s poor and Kennedy had his worst season in a long time
Click to expand...
Clarkson and the Hawks coaching panel didn't agree with you....

AWARD

Peter Crimmins Medal

DATE

October 5

HOW IT’S WON

The four members of the coaching panel award votes after each game. A maximum of 16 votes can be accumulated by a player in each game.

MOST WINS

Leigh Matthews (8)

THE TOP 10

1. James Worpel (115 votes)

2. Ricky Henderson (104 votes)

3. Jaeger O’Meara (103 votes)

4. James Sicily (100 votes)

5. Blake Hardwick (90 votes)

6. Jarman Impey (85 votes)

7. Liam Shiels (78 votes)

8. Ben McEvoy (75 votes)

9. Luke Breust (73 votes)

10. Ben Stratton (63 votes)
 
Anyone keen for an AFL All-Star game? I think now would be the perfect time for it. If you're on Twitter or have social share/retweet my tweet, or if you're active on other bigfooty boards let them know about it and create some noise/discussion around the idea.



I think from a fundraising perspective this may be the optimal way for the AFL to contribute and maximise donations. Doesn't mean other initiatives further to this can't happen, but if you have an All-Star game at the G, if you have the best of the best out there, set the ticket prices high, fill it up, have all proceeds from entry + food going towards to bushfire victims and affected communities. Get some pre-game entertainment, get a telethon running throughout to use the game as a fundraising opportunity and have the TV networks using the game to push fundraising live.
 
goat123 said:
hey km why do you think O'Neill slipped to the rookie draft?
Click to expand...

Play hasn't been all that strong or dominating this year. Hasn't improved as others have, though injuries play a part in all that. Missed time. All that plays a part.

In my own rankings I found others moved past him. Good last year, but underwhelming this year.

Late/rookie was about right.
 
Knightmare said:
Anyone keen for an AFL All-Star game? I think now would be the perfect time for it. If you're on Twitter or have social share/retweet my tweet, or if you're active on other bigfooty boards let them know about it and create some noise/discussion around the idea.



I think from a fundraising perspective this may be the optimal way for the AFL to contribute and maximise donations. Doesn't mean other initiatives further to this can't happen, but if you have an All-Star game at the G, if you have the best of the best out there, set the ticket prices high, fill it up, have all proceeds from entry + food going towards to bushfire victims and affected communities. Get some pre-game entertainment, get a telethon running throughout to use the game as a fundraising opportunity and have the TV networks using the game to push fundraising live.
Click to expand...


Herald Sun's calling it'll be a state of origin match. Would be cool to see.
 
Knightmare said:
Play hasn't been all that strong or dominating this year. Hasn't improved as others have, though injuries play a part in all that. Missed time. All that plays a part.

In my own rankings I found others moved past him. Good last year, but underwhelming this year.

Late/rookie was about right.
Click to expand...
Interesting as he was a dual AA so his 2019 champs couldn't have been that bad.

I suspect he was just a bit vanilla for clubs, which is a shame. I'm glad he got a rookie spot
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Holden Hillbilly
Draft Profile SA Draft prospects 2024
Replies
0
Views
94
Holden Hillbilly
Holden Hillbilly
Smythe
Draft Watcher SMYTHE's 2024 Draft Thread
2
Replies
40
Views
3K
briztoon
briztoon
Obeanie1
Draft Profile 2024 Mid Season draft prospects
2 3 4 5
Replies
120
Views
13K
Yoda_
Yoda_
ronpingwins
Rumour Draft Rumours 2023
5 6 7 8 9
Replies
216
Views
30K
Coona Blues
Coona Blues
Eastcoasteagle
ECE's Mock Draft 2023
Replies
11
Views
2K
ArdentEagle
ArdentEagle
PMBangers
BigFooty Official 2023 Bigfooty Phantom Draft
6 7 8 9 10
Replies
241
Views
30K
briztoon
briztoon
Davo-27
Draft Expert Davo-27's 2024 Draft Thread
9 10 11 12 13
Replies
319
Views
39K
year of the cat
year of the cat

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top