List Mgmt. 2014 list discussion - drafts, free agents, trades, retirees, delistings and more

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think we are better off look at a ruck man with one of the rookie spots. Ben Brown will probably be gone, but you might get an Apeness or similar. Even look at a ex-basketballer for a B grade rookie.

They're forwards who can play a bit of ruck (at AFL level, at least). We've got plenty of those. I think what we need is a genuine 203cm+ ruckman. Cameron or Lobb, preferably.

 

[rooie]

to sum up my thoughts on the butchering of data in this thread;

'they have done studies you know, 60% of the time it works every time.'

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

As I've stated throughout this thread and many have commented upon on this board - merely getting your hand to the ball does not mean you're a ruckman, it just means you're tall.

West's hit-outs have been generally spectacularly ineffectual; you only need to watch other decent ruckmen around the comp to see he gives us nothing.

The thing about that though (which many seem to be ignoring), is you can also watch the decent opposition ruckmen when they go up against West, because they're seldom match winners against us when West is playing either. He generally at least provides a contest in there, whereas Vardy and Blicavs are often completely uncompetitive. And I'll cop 'providing a contest' from a guy who looks to essentially be a backup for us, if he's here at all, next year. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a single game that Geelong has lost which could have been directly attributable to West getting destroyed in the ruck. Well, a single game where Blicavs and Vardy weren't slaughtered to at least the same extent.

 

[Megaman123]

Both picks are probably a bit wishful - would ask for 18, might settle on 25.

Consider that Brisbane are quite settled in the ruck though and have good outside players so the deal most likely wouldn't get over the line

The Lions have Luenburger, and no other real 2nd ruck. The have Stefan Martin, Sam Michael and not a lot else. And I would see it that with Rich, Redden, Rockliff, Black, Maloney they are well stocked for inside mids. Mayes is the only real outside user they have.

 

[cynical]

seriously people still confused about the ruck issues?

getting HMac last year was a calculated risk it wasn't a huge error if he was fit we would have won the flag

West is a better ruck than Vardy/Blicavs this year and not playing West in finals over Blicavs was a huge error that probably cost us the flag. When a flag is on the line you don't play people because of potential.

I'd rather trade West because he has little upside but I don't mind keeping him if there are no other decent value rucks in the draft.

 

[Cursed Cat]

for the record, im not a west fan, but i would keep him around if he wants to stay as backup to our injury prone pair of no. 1 rucks.

i just don't like people demonizing one of our premiership players for no reason at all by cherry picking data and trying to push their personal dislike of him as a reason to get rid of him.

west has been our most durable ruck over the last 3 years. he isn't great, but he competes and gets his hands to the ball in the ruck, which is kind of the point. if we are conceding winning the ruck contests, we might as well pick 2 more midfielders instead of 2 x 198cm kids with no experience.

who is doing this ? name names !

 

[Cursed Cat]

Whats the question? Who should have played or who will be better in 2 years time? I feel the MC lost faith in West and once they did they saw playing him as a wasted games that could be put into Vardy etc.
Vardy and Blitz as a team lacked influence , infact even worse , they couldn't prevent opponents influence. And West lacked any upside and confidence

Lets face it rock and a hard place. The club gambled and lost Hmac and once Simpson went down they were cornered. Add the lack of marking ability by Hawkins and Pods and one can see we true lacked big man players. That were were within a goal of a GF anyway is amazing.

So for 2014 I see it as a duel for the #1 spot between Hmac and Simpson. Vardy will play forward , Blitz will be a utility and West will not be at Geelong if at all possible

agree %100, top post.

 

[Jemaine]

Should we go after Lucas from Carlton if Adams goes to Collingwood?

No. No no no.

Absolute fairy. scared of a contest and horrendous disposal. Think David Clarke without the ability to run.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

As it currently stands, Geelong wants Darcy Gardiner as it's 1st preference in the draft. They are trying to gain an earlier selection by shopping around several players as they feel he won't last that long. The feel is St.Kilda are also gunning for his services.

That may change depending on the Shaw and more particularly Adams situation.

 

[Cursed Cat]

The thing about that though (which many seem to be ignoring), is you can also watch the decent opposition ruckmen when they go up against West, because they're seldom match winners against us when West is playing either. He generally at least provides a contest in there, whereas Vardy and Blicavs are often completely uncompetitive. And I'll cop 'providing a contest' from a guy who looks to essentially be a backup for us, if he's here at all, next year. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a single game that Geelong has lost which could have been directly attributable to West getting destroyed in the ruck. Well, a single game where Blicavs and Vardy weren't slaughtered to at least the same extent.

that's a good point with regards to West nullifying contests (faint praise though !), but I still think Sandilands would have smashed West in the ruck (as he did Vardy and Blicavs); he managed 35 hit-outs and 11 touches in the previous year's EF against Geelong (and West) on one leg, pretty much the same influence he had in this year's QF (31 hit-outs and 9 touches).

32 hit-outs and 19 touches in rd.1 last year against West too (vs. 8 touches and 14 hit-outs for West in that game). Sandilands earned a Brownlow vote in that game too fwiw.

So West's record against Sandilands is nothing flash, in fact it's poor (no surprise there, Sandi is very very good and very very tall) - couple that with his poor form leading up to the finals, and I can fully understand why the MC opted to go with the more 'unknown' quantity in the Vardy/Blicavs comination rather than going with a guy they knew wouldn't get the job done.
I'm sure the MC's logic behind the decision ran along the lines of 'we're gonna get smashed in the hit-outs either way, let's hope Blicavs can provide some run and Vardy can take some grabs up forward'.

 

[THE CAT WRANGLER]

I don't think we have a chance in hell unfortunately

http://www.scpaige.com.au/draftees-in-focus-darcy-gardiner/

Sounds like a gun and one of the finest defenders in years, could even go top 10 in the end.

We don't have a chance of landing anything we must be using the wrong bait ?

Have to give to get

 

[Hoffy95]

I don't think we have a chance in hell unfortunately

http://www.scpaige.com.au/draftees-in-focus-darcy-gardiner/

Sounds like a gun and one of the finest defenders in years, could even go top 10 in the end.

will do the “1 per canters"...

An inspiration for all budding equines.

 

[Seeds]

Who would you have west replacing in that game vardy/blicavs or walker?

Walker.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

that's a good point with regards to West nullifying contests (faint praise though !), but I still think Sandilands would have smashed West in the ruck (as he did Vardy and Blicavs); he managed 35 hit-outs and 11 touches in the previous year's EF against Geelong (and West) on one leg, pretty much the same influence he had in this year's QF (31 hit-outs and 9 touches).

Once he had fully recovered from injury last year, he was the same old Sandilands, who always gives us a touch up (though rarely to the extent that he did in the 2013 QF). He had a three game lead-in to the elimination final in 2012, during which he averaged 16 disposals, a goal and 35.3 hitouts. If he was 'on one leg', he was doing a decent job of concealing it. He absolutely cremated (in order): an AA squad member that year, an AA squad member from 2013 and the 2010 AA ruckman - all of whom averaged well over 30 hitouts per game in 2012 (West averaged a shade under 25). Then for an encore, he soundly beat another 2012 AA squad member (and league hitouts leader that year) in the semi final.

Considering all that and the number of 'big name' ruckmen that Sandilands was absolutely abusing at the end of 2012, I think West actually did reasonably well. In fact it was the only game since Sandilands' return where the Dockers actually lost the clearances (and in three of the other four games, they won the clearance count by a significant margin)

32 hit-outs and 19 touches in rd.1 last year against West too (vs. 8 touches and 14 hit-outs for West in that game). Sandilands earned a Brownlow vote in that game too fwiw.

And how did Geelong respond? Well, they dropped Stephenson, put West in on his own against Hale and McCauley for the Easter Monday game...and Geelong won the hitouts.

So West's record against Sandilands is nothing flash, in fact it's poor (no surprise there, Sandi is very very good and very very tall) - couple that with his poor form leading up to the finals, and I can fully understand why the MC opted to go with the more 'unknown' quantity in the Vardy/Blicavs comination rather than going with a guy they knew wouldn't get the job done.

Geelong has actually won 42% of the hitouts and 51% of the clearances in games that West has played against Fremantle and Sandilands. It was 23% and 34% in the most recent encounter in the elimination final. As for his 'poor form', well his 25 hitouts the week he was dropped is five better than Blicavs or Vardy have ever managed in an AFL game. If Blicavs got 25 hitouts in a game, a petition would probably come out to rename the Ablett Terrace in Blicavs' honour. Plus, for a game where Sandilands' dominance at the ruck contests was always expected to be a factor, West's average of over 46.5 hitouts a game in the VFL (to that point) was probably worth considering.

 

[Seeds]

Well that's a ridiculous claim but to each their own.

I honestly don't think it would have changed the result even though he would have been more competitive in the ruck.

Stop just those two Sandilands palms in the forward pocket in the 3rd quarter that set up automatic goals alone and the game is completely different. west was very good in the ruck against Luenberger just one week before. He would of minimised the damage against Sandilands. May of even won a couple of decent knockouts that set up attacking plays himself.

 

[MotlopMagic]

So much talk about West vs Vardy vs Blicavs. They're ALL second-string ruckmen for one reason or another. That's being generous in some cases. The difference between them is negligible. End of story.

 

[Moggy]

Can we just give the West vs Vardy/Blicavs in the 2013 final series a break now, guys?

This horse is no more! He has ceased to be!

 

[FredLeDeux]

Can we just give the West vs Vardy/Blicavs in the 2013 final series a break now, guys?

This horse is no more! He has ceased to be!

I'll parrot that.

 

[Turbocat]

I'll parrot that.

in a cheese shop

 

[Johnny Cattery]

As it currently stands, Geelong wants Darcy Gardiner as it's 1st preference in the draft. They are trying to gain an earlier selection by shopping around several players as they feel he won't last that long. The feel is St.Kilda are also gunning for his services.

That may change depending on the Shaw and more particularly Adams situation.

thank you MD, makes a lot of sense in terms of our long term needs. GWS the logical source of higher picks, and makes sense of trying to trade Travis Varcoe (they were chasing him last year when he was sent to Perth on holiday with Joel Selwood?) Could it be connected to the 'sighting' of Hyphen-George heading into the airport lounge? More detail please!

 

[supahoops]

Should we go after Lucas from Carlton if Adams goes to Collingwood?

Our 5th rounder should do it. Seriously, has he ever shown anything to justify his early selection?

 

[Cursed Cat]

Once he had fully recovered from injury last year, he was the same old Sandilands, who always gives us a touch up (though rarely to the extent that he did in the 2013 QF). He had a three game lead-in to the elimination final in 2012, during which he averaged 16 disposals, a goal and 35.3 hitouts. If he was 'on one leg', he was doing a decent job of concealing it. He absolutely cremated (in order): an AA squad member that year, an AA squad member from 2013 and the 2010 AA ruckman - all of whom averaged well over 30 hitouts per game in 2012 (West averaged a shade under 25). Then for an encore, he soundly beat another 2012 AA squad member (and league hitouts leader that year) in the semi final.

yup. so he beats pretty much everyone when in form - how was West going to make any difference in this year's QF ? As I pointed out, the previous couple of times he was smashed by Sandi.

And how did Geelong respond? Well, they dropped Stephenson, put West in on his own against Hale and McCauley for the Easter Monday game...and Geelong won the hitouts.

I don't get how this is relevant. We're not talking about Hale & McCauley, we're talking about facing Sandilands, biiiig difference.
Stephenson himself carved up Hawthorn's rucks late in 2012.
Fwiw West and Blicavs lost the hit-outs against Hawthorn in round 1 this year, Blicavs matched West exactly (on debut) with both having 11 hit outs and 9 touches.

Geelong has actually won 42% of the hitouts and 51% of the clearances in games that West has played against Fremantle and Sandilands. It was 23% and 34% in the most recent encounter in the elimination final. As for his 'poor form', well his 25 hitouts the week he was dropped is five better than Blicavs or Vardy have ever managed in an AFL game. If Blicavs got 25 hitouts in a game, a petition would probably come out to rename the Ablett Terrace in Blicavs' honour. Plus, for a game where Sandilands' dominance at the ruck contests was always expected to be a factor, West's average of over 46.5 hitouts a game in the VFL (to that point) was probably worth considering.

Not sure about the renaming of the Ablett Terrace in Blicavs honour, but West certainly won't be having a wing named after him any time soon, unless it's on a dvd box set.
I don't know why, a mere page or two after dismissing the vagaries of raw hit-out stats, you're wielding them now as if they prove anything (other than West lost the battle both times he played against Freo) - I actually agreed with that other post, in which you rightly pointed out the uselessness of the 'hit-out' stat without any further evaluation of that hit-out - e.g. did it go to a team-mate ? opposition player ? fall at the ruckmens feet innocuously ? History shows Sandilands was awarded a Brownlow vote in one of the two games he played against West, and he was named in their best when they beat us in the finals last year.

Geelong vs Freo rd 1 2012 :

Freo hit-outs : 43 (Sandilands 32, Clarke 6, Bradley 4, Dawson 1)
Freo clearances : 39 (Sandilands 8)
Geelong hit-outs : 32 (West 14, Stephenson 10 - on debut - Bartel 3, Selwood 2, Hawkins 2, Corey 1 talk about a team effort !)
Geelong clearances : 38 (Selwood, Kelly 8 - West 1)

And you wanna give West credit for Geelong winning the clearances that evening ?

He was part of a combination that lost the hit-outs (West played %73 game time though, Stephenson only %43 - yet just a 4 hit-out differential between them) and allowed Sandilands a equal game-high 8 clearances.
For mine Selwood and Kelly kept us in the game despite Sandilands slaughtering West & co.

I won't waste anymore time looking at the Geelong vs Freo EF 2012 stats, suffice to say I'm sure it would have told a similar tale - West was soundly beaten.

Anyway we could go on like this all night, except that I won't cuz I've made my point and don't have much more to say on the matter - my position, in summary of my comments on this thread :

West, whilst a premiership player and hard worker, is severely limited at the best of times, and his late-season form was not good. (it was bad enough to get him dropped).
In his two previous encounters against Freo he was smashed by Sandilands (I honestly don't hold that against him, he just wasn't up to it).

With this in mind, I was happy to back the MC's decision to go with the more unknown combination of Vardy & Blicavs.

I did not think either played well against Freo.
I wasn't holding out a whole lot of hope for Vardy and Blicavs to reverse the trend against Freo, but I understood that the MC were *hoping* these two relatively untapped talents might have an 'out-of-the-box' game; Blicavs with his running capacity and Vardy with his ability to take a grab up forward.
Didn't happen.
Still don't think West would have made a difference, and could very well have been worse.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

Like the idea of the West Wing.

 

[hbk_aus]

So anyway, what does everything think about our ruck situation? Does anybody think West is better than Blicavs/Vardy? Just curious...(insert sarcastic smiley here)

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

I don't want Vardy in the ruck. My ideal situation is HMAC/Simpson with Vardy forward and Blicavs as backup/developing in the backline. West reminds me of Mark Blake 2.0. Decent player but just screams uncoordinated.