Review Winners and Losers - 2016 AFL National Draft

[Ancient Tiger]

I published this today on my thread in the Phantom Draft boards. It suggests Richmond was the biggest winner of the draft, and Geelong the biggest loser. Negative numbers mean that the players were selected lower than expected, positive numbers mean that the players were selected higher.

The numbers were generated by combining the numbers for each individual draftee in each club.
These numbers were calculated by subtracting the real draft position from the average draft position for the draftee of all the phantom drafts I could find. Of course this assumes that the combined wisdom of all the Phantom Drafts is worth anything, which we won't know for a few years.

Richmond -45.5
Gold Coast -44.1
Carlton -36.2
Brisbane -28.0
West Coast -26.3
Hawthorn -20.7
Essendon -18.3
Fremantle -5.1
Adelaide -4.7
Sydney 8.6
Port Adelaide 16.7
St. Kilda 22.4
Melbourne 26.0
GWS 27.6
North Melbourne 32.0
Collingwood 36.5
Western Bulldogs 39.0
Geelong 50.4

Overall, Richmond, Gold Coast and Carlton fans should feel happy that they got the biggest bargains, while Geelong, Bulldogs and Collingwood fans will have to trust that their recruiting teams knew what they would were doing, because they reached the most for the players they selected.

My club is at number 8, so it's not just an elaborate effort to pump up my club's tyres.

Add in a good trade period getting Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis and the tigers should be well pleased with this whole period.

 

[Clems Knee]

You Just think you know it all and come across as sour grapes so I rather respect other's unbiased opinion as let's be honest you are a no body just like me.

How does it come across as sour grapes? This is a strange post.

 

[Clems Knee]

Didn't you make a tread called who Won the 2016 draft, so we can predict winners but not losers ?
If you don't like the tread, no one is forcing you to participate in it.

Taking Venables at pick 12 was a pretty big reach, can't say the other players WC picked fill me with envy either.
I would say WC had a poor draft considering they had some reasonable picks and failed IMO to get maximum value out of them.

I would love West Coast to have a poor draft. But they compared well with the averages of all Phantom Drafts.
Venables West Coast 13 3.9
Rotham West Coast 37 -12.9
Rioli West Coast 52 10.5
Waterman West Coast 77 -27.8
total. -26.3

Venables was close to expectations, Willie Rioli Jnr a reach, but Rotham and Waterman were sliders. Waterman in particular was the 5th biggest slider, according to the Average Phantom.

 

[Bic]

Who did collingwood reach for? Bic

Collingwood did well to even get a live pick in this draft, and got a KPP who was rated top 10 in 2015 before his shoulder injury derailed his season and his draft ranking.

 

[Bic]

Add in a good trade period getting Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis and the tigers should be well pleased with this whole period.

You also lost Deledio, Vickery and Yarran. Deledio being the best player out of the whole lot too.

Where is the growth and depth coming from?

 

[Zach Package]

A lot of kids born in the second half of the year start school a year later.

In Victoria it's the other way around, sometimes you start a year young if you're like a Jan/Feb baby but never a year older.

 

[Old navy]

I would love West Coast to have a poor draft. But they compared well with the averages of all Phantom Drafts.
Venables West Coast 13 3.9
Rotham West Coast 37 -12.9
Rioli West Coast 52 10.5
Waterman West Coast 77 -27.8
total. -26.3

Venables was close to expectations, Willie Rioli Jnr a reach, but Rotham and Waterman were sliders. Waterman in particular was the 5th biggest slider, according to the Average Phantom.

Venables was not close to expected range, he was expected to go around end of 1st round to early 2nd, pick 12 is a reach IMO.
Rotham is the one pick I think they did well with.

 

[Ancient Tiger]

You also lost Deledio, Vickery and Yarran. Deledio being the best player out of the whole lot too.

Where is the growth and depth coming from?

If you hadn't noticed Deledio hardly played this year. He was injured last year too. Soft tissue injuries at his age have a habit of not getting better.
Vickery was a lazy dud for us. I wish him well at Hawthorn but he was going nowhere fast at the tigers.
Yarran never played for us and so it's hard to tell what we lost there. The only thing we can say is we lost 2 second rounders in two years which hurt but it's better to look ahead and move on.

 

[eDPS]

Very happy with bombers picks, to early to tell but i think most clubs got the players they wanted. I think all clubs should be happy at this stage

 

[Clems Knee]

Collingwood did well to even get a live pick in this draft, and got a KPP who was rated top 10 in 2015 before his shoulder injury derailed his season and his draft ranking.

I don't see this. Knightmare would have passed on both father-son bids, so Collingwood's father sons weren't considered to be good picks in thisAs far as McLarty goes, he doesn't seem that different to Rotham and Brennan Cox. Maybe injuries did derail his season;none of the phantoms that I used reflect his rating in 2015.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Didn't you make a tread called who Won the 2016 draft, so we can predict winners but not losers ?

Maybe you missed the subtext of that thread.

If you don't like the tread, no one is forcing you to participate in it.

No doubt.

Taking Venables at pick 12 was a pretty big reach, can't say the other players WC picked fill me with envy either. I would say WC had a poor draft considering they had some reasonable picks and failed IMO to get maximum value out of them.

How can we say at this early stage whether any club got "value" out of their picks?

 

[Bic]

I don't see this. Knightmare would have passed on both father-son bids, so Collingwood's father sons weren't considered to be good picks in thisAs far as McLarty goes, he doesn't seem that different to Rotham and Brennan Cox. Maybe injuries did derail his season;none of the phantoms that I used reflect his rating in 2015.

You are just basing your opinion on another persons opinion - I get what you are saying, but Collingwood requires KPP depth, and they drafted who they thought was the best KPP in the draft at 30. Knightmare, as good as he is, has got plenty wrong in the past, the draft game isn't easy.

You mention Richmond did well based on drafting sliders, but you fail to recognise their game plan is based on foot skills, and they have one of the worst skills in the league. So, they picked up 3 players who have poor foot skills. Draft sliders? Sure. Value? Sure. But they are drafting players that don't suit their game plan.

 

[Clems Knee]

Venables was not close to expected range, he was expected to go around end of 1st round to early 2nd, pick 12 is a reach IMO.
Rotham is the one pick I think they did well with.

Venables ranged in phantoms from 7 (Phantom trial run) to 52 (Quigley's Ratings), averaging at 16.9. He was rated by 75 of the 76 drafts (only getgaff in October missed out). His average went from 15 through the year down to 19.8 in the last week. So it was a reach of about 4 places. Not much in the scheme of things.

Rotham was a good pickup, but the stats suggest Waterman was better, and like Powell-Pepper, I personally think he is underrated by many on here. Time will tell.

 

[Clems Knee]

You are just basing your opinion on another persons opinion - I get what you are saying, but Collingwood requires KPP depth, and they drafted who they thought was the best KPP in the draft at 30. Knightmare, as good as he is, has got plenty wrong in the past, the draft game isn't easy.

You mention Richmond did well based on drafting sliders, but you fail to recognise their game plan is based on foot skills, and they have one of the worst skills in the league. So, they picked up 3 players who have poor foot skills. Draft sliders? Sure. Value? Sure. But they are drafting players that don't suit their game plan.

Yes. Absolutely. I referred to a prominent Collingwood fan's opinion. And I presented the combined opinion of 76 phantoms.
I would love to drill down to the different roles of the draftees and prospective draftees. It could explain why some players are seemingly picked early like you say. For Freo, it could explain Sean Darcy's apparent early selection.

I'm not convinced that all 3 Richmond draftees have poor foot skills. That club has a history not only of poor draft selection, but also poor development.
Another poster a page back said that players slide for a reason - it will be interesting to see if this bears out for this cohort over the next few years. If that's true, Richmond will again be in trouble.

 

[Clems Knee]

You also lost Deledio, Vickery and Yarran. Deledio being the best player out of the whole lot too.

Where is the growth and depth coming from?

They were gone anyway.
Given that, Richmond had a pretty good trade week and it looks like they can be hopeful with their drafting effort.
Doesn't mean they are not in trouble next year anyway.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Somebody please tell me north went shit.

Norf went shit

 

[Trucker Tiger]

You are just basing your opinion on another persons opinion - I get what you are saying, but Collingwood requires KPP depth, and they drafted who they thought was the best KPP in the draft at 30. Knightmare, as good as he is, has got plenty wrong in the past, the draft game isn't easy.

You mention Richmond did well based on drafting sliders, but you fail to recognise their game plan is based on foot skills, and they have one of the worst skills in the league. So, they picked up 3 players who have poor foot skills. Draft sliders? Sure. Value? Sure. But they are drafting players that don't suit their game plan.

Richmond doesn't have a game plan.

 

[Clems Knee]

Norf went shit

North reached on two of their four draftees, and picked the other two near expectations. If the expectations of phantoms have any value, then North Melbourne had the fourth shittiest draft.

 

[The Bomb]

McGrath wasn't even in the conversation for the number 1 pick, till GWS told the world how badly they wanted him.

During the champs Keane made a statement saying McGrath is in the top 3 best players, this is when Brodie was bening spoken about strongly.

I said it months ago on Blitz but I know for a fact Keane rated McGrath top 3 during the champs, I assume the other was Brodie but don't know where he rated McCluggage. oct 2016

 

[KeilorUnder9s]

You are just basing your opinion on another persons opinion - I get what you are saying, but Collingwood requires KPP depth, and they drafted who they thought was the best KPP in the draft at 30. Knightmare, as good as he is, has got plenty wrong in the past, the draft game isn't easy.

You mention Richmond did well based on drafting sliders, but you fail to recognise their game plan is based on foot skills, and they have one of the worst skills in the league. So, they picked up 3 players who have poor foot skills. Draft sliders? Sure. Value? Sure. But they are drafting players that don't suit their game plan.

I agree with you on this but am mighty hopeful Dimwits gameplan has been thrown out and we will actually move the ball fast.

 

[Lsta062]

You are just basing your opinion on another persons opinion - I get what you are saying, but Collingwood requires KPP depth, and they drafted who they thought was the best KPP in the draft at 30. Knightmare, as good as he is, has got plenty wrong in the past, the draft game isn't easy.

You mention Richmond did well based on drafting sliders, but you fail to recognise their game plan is based on foot skills, and they have one of the worst skills in the league. So, they picked up 3 players who have poor foot skills. Draft sliders? Sure. Value? Sure. But they are drafting players that don't suit their game plan.

We don't want to be playing our gameplan of late. A change of the type of players we are going for alludes to a changing in gameplan to me. We used to be big on footskills before (Corey Ellis comes to mind) and would even pass up on sliders to select them. The fact that we didn't this time (along with the host of changes to the assistant coaches) tells me that we can probably expect a significant change in gameplan next season.

Either that or show me how the 2017 wooden spoon looks like.

 

[Lsta062]

You also lost Deledio, Vickery and Yarran. Deledio being the best player out of the whole lot too.

Where is the growth and depth coming from?

- Yarran didn't even play a game for Richmond, so I don't think he is a significant loss.
- Don't think the loss of Deledio will hurt us that much given that we added some players in the midfield. His presence in the forward line will leave a little void, although Caddy is a goal kicking mid himself
- People may laugh at this, but the loss of Vickery was probably the biggest out of the three if you look at our team now. Our KPF stocks are quite bare now and we didn't really improve in that area, but hopefully Nankervis can become a good player in the forward line.

I can see a scenario whereby we still improve despite losing the three you mentioned, but that is only if the gameplan changes and we practice to play that way throughout (faster and less reliance on tall players in our forward line). So, I personally don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that Richmond can improve next season with the ins and outs over the off-season.

 

[Bic]

I agree with you on this but am mighty hopeful Dimwits gameplan has been thrown out and we will actually move the ball fast.

We don't want to be playing our gameplan of late. A change of the type of players we are going for alludes to a changing in gameplan to me. We used to be big on footskills before (Corey Ellis comes to mind) and would even pass up on sliders to select them. The fact that we didn't this time (along with the host of changes to the assistant coaches) tells me that we can probably expect a significant change in gameplan next season.

Either that or show me how the 2017 wooden spoon looks like.

I think your top 6 avoid you getting a spoon. Perhaps you're right in a change of game plan, but I guess Dimma won't last long next season if something doesn't change.

 

[Lsta062]

I think your top 6 avoid you getting a spoon. Perhaps you're right in a change of game plan, but I guess Dimma won't last long next season if something doesn't change.

I don't think he has much of an option other than change the current gameplan. Teams will no longer allow you space to systematically work your way around the ground with slower ball movement if you have Richmond's skill level. They need to go for a faster ball movement with a focus on tackling and other off the ball acts like shepherding and 1%ers. Preferably one that doesn't rely so much on precision kicking.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

we were touted to take himmelberg at our first in the lead up. and we took 15 seconds to call bolton and graham so we obviously thought they would be long gone and snapped them up.

also talks of where the improvement comes from

we have added prestia,caddy,and nankervis which should help our issues of winning the ball. then we have bolton and rioli up forward so now hopefully we don't have the ball walked out of our forward line

as for kids we have the 3 we just drafted to add to short,markov,rioli,menadue,buttler,corey ellis and hopefully lennon pulls his finger out seeing as he got snubbed

we have 2 first rounders for the draft in 2017 which means we can get 2 key position players seeing as next years draft is meant to be stacked with them.