2017 Ladder Predictions

[Bazza97]

There's also more to football than midfields gillo.

I think a team's midfield strength can be over-emphasised by quite a few on here.

The quality of players in Adelaide's back line and forward line is top 4 quality IMO.

I can understand why a few on here rate the Crows highly and personally I have them in 4th.

They did have the most settled lineup in 2016 by using only 29 players on their list during the season and some may argue they had a really good run of injury and they did. They also had a few players who had career best years especially in their forward line with Jenkins and Betts for example. They may not emulate the year they had last year in a scoreboard sense (Betts kicked 75 and Jenkins 62 from 24 games each) but I'm still confident Betts can kick say 60 goals and Jenkins will probably kick at least 40 which he's done the past couple of years permitting they play at least 20 games.

Adelaide is really focusing on it's flexibility this pre-season particularly in the midfield and in it's first pre-season game against Richmond they are going to play at least half of their side through the midfield apparently. Brodie Smith mentioned that it was important to have plenty of players playing through the midfield to ensure a team's midfield becomes more unpredictable and also allow the players to be fresher than if they played longer stints in there.

There are legitimate concerns for the Crows top midfielders going into the season with Sloane going to miss all of the JLT, B Crouch remaining doubtful for round 1 and Thompson playing little part of the JLT with a shoulder injury, so it's not ideal for those Crow's midfielders going into the season.

However, I think some people over-emphasise the midfield in today's game and Adelaide's strength in it's back line and forward line should be able to at least overcome the deficiency they have in the midfield and at least make the top 8 while also remaining a solid chance to make top 4.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I think a team's midfield strength can be over-emphasised by quite a few on here.

The quality of players in Adelaide's back line and forward line is top 4 quality IMO.

I can understand why a few on here rate the Crows highly and personally I have them in 4th.

They did have the most settled lineup in 2016 by using only 29 players on their list during the season and some may argue they had a really good run of injury and they did. They also had a few players who had career best years especially in their forward line with Jenkins and Betts for example. They may not emulate the year they had last year in a scoreboard sense (Betts kicked 75 and Jenkins 62 from 24 games each) but I'm still confident Betts can kick say 60 goals and Jenkins will probably kick at least 40 which he's done the past couple of years permitting they play at least 20 games.

Adelaide is really focusing on it's flexibility this pre-season particularly in the midfield and in it's first pre-season game against Richmond they are going to play at least half of their side through the midfield apparently. Brodie Smith mentioned that it was important to have plenty of players playing through the midfield to ensure a team's midfield becomes more unpredictable and also allow the players to be fresher than if they played longer stints in there.

There are legitimate concerns for the Crows top midfielders going into the season with Sloane going to miss all of the JLT, B Crouch remaining doubtful for round 1 and Thompson playing little part of the JLT with a shoulder injury, so it's not ideal for those Crow's midfielders going into the season.

However, I think some people over-emphasise the midfield in today's game and Adelaide's strength in it's back line and forward line should be able to at least overcome the deficiency they have in the midfield and at least make the top 8 while also remaining a solid chance to make top 4.

You have an astounding level of understanding of other sides.

[edit: outstanding. Damn autocorrect coupled with my bad spelling!]

 

[gillo94]

I think a team's midfield strength can be over-emphasised by quite a few on here.

The quality of players in Adelaide's back line and forward line is top 4 quality IMO.

I can understand why a few on here rate the Crows highly and personally I have them in 4th.

They did have the most settled lineup in 2016 by using only 29 players on their list during the season and some may argue they had a really good run of injury and they did. They also had a few players who had career best years especially in their forward line with Jenkins and Betts for example. They may not emulate the year they had last year in a scoreboard sense (Betts kicked 75 and Jenkins 62 from 24 games each) but I'm still confident Betts can kick say 60 goals and Jenkins will probably kick at least 40 which he's done the past couple of years permitting they play at least 20 games.

Adelaide is really focusing on it's flexibility this pre-season particularly in the midfield and in it's first pre-season game against Richmond they are going to play at least half of their side through the midfield apparently. Brodie Smith mentioned that it was important to have plenty of players playing through the midfield to ensure a team's midfield becomes more unpredictable and also allow the players to be fresher than if they played longer stints in there.

There are legitimate concerns for the Crows top midfielders going into the season with Sloane going to miss all of the JLT, B Crouch remaining doubtful for round 1 and Thompson playing little part of the JLT with a shoulder injury, so it's not ideal for those Crow's midfielders going into the season.

However, I think some people over-emphasise the midfield in today's game and Adelaide's strength in it's back line and forward line should be able to at least overcome the deficiency they have in the midfield and at least make the top 8 while also remaining a solid chance to make top 4.

Crows team is good no doubting that. Just feel middle of the ground is an area most great sides are strong and need to be strong come business end of the year

Let's look back at the dominant teams in the past
Lions had Voss Black Akermanis Power Lappin
Cats had Ablett Bartel Corey Chapman Ling
Eagles had Judd Cousins Kerr Embley Cox

Any team can have top 4 forward lines and backlines but your not balanced enough you will get exposed later during the year when your not playing teams like Brisbane or Essendon

 

[Bokonon_]

You have an astounding level of understanding of other sides.

[edit: outstanding. Damn autocorrect coupled with my bad spelling!]

I know I've said it before, but I keep coming back to the fact they beat us for contested posession and clearances, and surprisingly did us for outside run last year. Some of that's off their backline but I cant see their midfield as that weak.

 

[adammania9]

Crows team is good no doubting that. Just feel middle of the ground is an area most great sides are strong and need to be strong come business end of the year

Let's look back at the dominant teams in the past
Lions had Voss Black Akermanis Power Lappin
Cats had Ablett Bartel Corey Chapman Ling
Eagles had Judd Cousins Kerr Embley Cox

Any team can have top 4 forward lines and backlines but your not balanced enough you will get exposed later during the year when your not playing teams like Brisbane or Essendon

No one's expecting Adelaide to compete for the best team of the century so far, but top four and a genuine premiership push certainly aren't out of the question.

 

[gillo94]

No one's expecting Adelaide to compete for the best team of the century so far, but top four and a genuine premiership push certainly aren't out of the question.

Fair enough.

 

[Bazza97]

You have an astounding level of understanding of other sides.

[edit: outstanding. Damn autocorrect coupled with my bad spelling!]

Appreciate the kind words. That's why I joined BF purely because I felt I could make informed posts on other teams and not just for the team I support.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Appreciate the kind words. That's why I joined BF purely because I felt I could make informed posts on other teams and not just for the team I support.

Hah. I'm like the other 99% of BF posters who make uninformed posts about other teams!

 

[Bazza97]

Crows team is good no doubting that. Just feel middle of the ground is an area most great sides are strong and need to be strong come business end of the year

Let's look back at the dominant teams in the past
Lions had Voss Black Akermanis Power Lappin
Cats had Ablett Bartel Corey Chapman Ling
Eagles had Judd Cousins Kerr Embley Cox

Any team can have top 4 forward lines and backlines but your not balanced enough you will get exposed later during the year when your not playing teams like Brisbane or Essendon

It's definitely helps to have a quality midfield. We know contested ball is very important and Adelaide doesn't have the top end quality that the Swans have for example but I still think they can make top 4.

Hawthorn were ranked last for contested ball won last year but they still managed to finish 3rd at the end of the H&A season even though they got knocked it in straight sets.

Other sides like Geelong and West Coast for example have some top quality midfielders in their sides and I can understand why they could be considered ahead even though they don't have as much quality than the Crows in their back line and forward line.

I'm pretty confident however that Adelaide will make the 8 at least and if they don't make the top 4, I reckon they'll be pretty close.

 

[Bazza97]

Hah. I'm like the other 99% of BF posters who make uninformed posts about other teams!

I think it's in all in good nature though when that happens, but the one thing that does s**t me is the negative trolling at times. It's always good to have some humour on here but the trolling can get quite annoying and out of hand. Other than that BF is good fun and it's always interesting to read poster's opinions on various topics whether it's informed or not.

 

[Janus]

I think a team's midfield strength can be over-emphasised by quite a few on here.

The quality of players in Adelaide's back line and forward line is top 4 quality IMO.

I can understand why a few on here rate the Crows highly and personally I have them in 4th.

They did have the most settled lineup in 2016 by using only 29 players on their list during the season and some may argue they had a really good run of injury and they did. They also had a few players who had career best years especially in their forward line with Jenkins and Betts for example. They may not emulate the year they had last year in a scoreboard sense (Betts kicked 75 and Jenkins 62 from 24 games each) but I'm still confident Betts can kick say 60 goals and Jenkins will probably kick at least 40 which he's done the past couple of years permitting they play at least 20 games.

Adelaide is really focusing on it's flexibility this pre-season particularly in the midfield and in it's first pre-season game against Richmond they are going to play at least half of their side through the midfield apparently. Brodie Smith mentioned that it was important to have plenty of players playing through the midfield to ensure a team's midfield becomes more unpredictable and also allow the players to be fresher than if they played longer stints in there.

There are legitimate concerns for the Crows top midfielders going into the season with Sloane going to miss all of the JLT, B Crouch remaining doubtful for round 1 and Thompson playing little part of the JLT with a shoulder injury, so it's not ideal for those Crow's midfielders going into the season.

However, I think some people over-emphasise the midfield in today's game and Adelaide's strength in it's back line and forward line should be able to at least overcome the deficiency they have in the midfield and at least make the top 8 while also remaining a solid chance to make top 4.

The issue with Adelaide as a side is that their primary focus is on avoiding getting the ball stuck in midfield - that's why they focus so much on transition play. Their whole gameplan is designed around it - quick switches, quick kicking, letting the ball do the work so their slow mids aren't exposed for pace. When other sides say they are planning on playing more people through the midfield, they do so with the intention of heavy rotations to maximize the limited burst speed endurance their players have - they just don't have the players capable of playing extended minutes at a high cadence. Whereas other sides are looking at playing others through the midfield because they can genuinely make an impact with their skill and talent.

That's the reason why Adelaide fails in finals every year. Finals are about two things - defence and midfield strength. I've yet to see a finals game where it's a forward kicking a bag of goals that decides the outcome of the match in the modern game because the time and space for forwards is heavily reduced. Sure, the Crows forward line is great (1st in the comp statistically) and their defence too (2nd) but their midfield is still and always will be their Achilles heel. You can bypass it through home and away because every team is looking to conserve energy defensively somewhat for the next game they have to play. In finals, however, there IS no tomorrow, so there is no requirement to conserve energy until the game is already won.

I've got them 4th too, but I've also got them going out in straight sets for this very reason. When they had Dangerfield they were still one elite mid away from winning the flag. Now they are two away, and guys like Thompson who they relied on as an inside mid for so long are getting too old to make a valuable contribution to the cause.

They might try to sucker punch teams with their heavy rotations on field in order to create mismatches, but honestly, it's all just smoke and mirrors. When finals roll around, their forwards will be starved of supply because you've got to be able to generate your own score launches from midfield and not just rely on teams making mistakes - finals teams are finals teams because they don't do that very often.

 

[Bazza97]

The issue with Adelaide as a side is that their primary focus is on avoiding getting the ball stuck in midfield - that's why they focus so much on transition play. Their whole gameplan is designed around it - quick switches, quick kicking, letting the ball do the work so their slow mids aren't exposed for pace. When other sides say they are planning on playing more people through the midfield, they do so with the intention of heavy rotations to maximize the limited burst speed endurance their players have - they just don't have the players capable of playing extended minutes at a high cadence. Whereas other sides are looking at playing others through the midfield because they can genuinely make an impact with their skill and talent.

That's the reason why Adelaide fails in finals every year. Finals are about two things - defence and midfield strength. I've yet to see a finals game where it's a forward kicking a bag of goals that decides the outcome of the match in the modern game because the time and space for forwards is heavily reduced. Sure, the Crows forward line is great (1st in the comp statistically) and their defence too (2nd) but their midfield is still and always will be their Achilles heel. You can bypass it through home and away because every team is looking to conserve energy defensively somewhat for the next game they have to play. In finals, however, there IS no tomorrow, so there is no requirement to conserve energy until the game is already won.

I've got them 4th too, but I've also got them going out in straight sets for this very reason. When they had Dangerfield they were still one elite mid away from winning the flag. Now they are two away, and guys like Thompson who they relied on as an inside mid for so long are getting too old to make a valuable contribution to the cause.

They might try to sucker punch teams with their heavy rotations on field in order to create mismatches, but honestly, it's all just smoke and mirrors. When finals roll around, their forwards will be starved of supply because you've got to be able to generate your own score launches from midfield and not just rely on teams making mistakes - finals teams are finals teams because they don't do that very often.

Very extensive analysis there and some good points brought up as well.

Even though I have the Crows in the top 4, I'm not expecting them to be one of the top challengers in September (GWS, Sydney, WB and perhaps Geelong and WC are more likely).

The top-line quality in the midfield in particular winning the contested ball to a high level, is the concern for me and I think Adelaide will be pretty good during the season but again finals could be their undoing.

Outside of that, I think they are very good.

If the Crows managed to make the PF, then I'd give them pretty much an even chance alongside the 3 other teams as I think when it comes to the PF's that's when it becomes unpredictable.

They're going to be an interesting side to watch this year the Crows and I am interested to see their rotations in the midfield in the JLT as well as during the season and how they stack up against the very good contested teams like the Swans and the Bulldogs.

 

[Smooth Banana]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hawks get Dustin Martin. They are so good at getting the players they set out to get. I bet you they will sell him the argument

We have lost Mitchell, Lewis & Hodge, all past Hawks greats. We plan to make our next big 3 midfield stars Jaegar O'Meara, Tom Mitchell and Dustin Martin who together will dominate the Comp and win multiple premierships under Clarko. They can still get plenty good years out of Cyril Gunston Breust Isaac Smith and few others so plenty to build around with recruiting right quality players

just quoted cause I wanted people to read this.

 

[00Stinger]

Crows team is good no doubting that. Just feel middle of the ground is an area most great sides are strong and need to be strong come business end of the year

Let's look back at the dominant teams in the past
Lions had Voss Black Akermanis Power Lappin
Cats had Ablett Bartel Corey Chapman Ling
Eagles had Judd Cousins Kerr Embley Cox

Any team can have top 4 forward lines and backlines but your not balanced enough you will get exposed later during the year when your not playing teams like Brisbane or Essendon

while I don't disagree with you, but Hawthorns midfield was no where near as good as the ones mentioned and they dominated for a longer period of time

 

[Papa G]

while I don't disagree with you, but Hawthorns midfield was no where near as good as the ones mentioned and they dominated for a longer period of time

Stevic in the midfield was invaluable. Helped a lot down back and up forward too.

 

[Janus]

just quoted cause I wanted people to read this.

The possession based gameplan you used is what made you successful, not just the players who executed it. And that style has been made redundant by sides playing a pressure game all over the ground - which requires defensive endurance which your players don't and will never have.

Clarkson's faith in his abilities as a coach is a strength but also his biggest weakness. He complained about the Bulldogs getting away with illegal disposal in finals and rightly so, but that's not the reason you lost. You'll tread water like Essendon did with Sheedy, making finals and even winning a few...but never really challenging for a flag until one day your board wakes up and realises that 2015 was 10 years ago and doesn't renew his contract, instead hiring Luke Hodge as a favourite son who believes that the reason every other team is just that little bit better is because they are on drugs.

 

[footy75]

Stevic in the midfield was invaluable. Helped a lot down back and up forward too.

lol at the salt.

 

[footy75]

GWS
West Coast
Sydney
Dogs
Adelaide
Hawthorn
St Kilda
Geelong

 

[van peebles]

1/Geelong
2/Giants
3/Sydney
4/Bulldogs
5/Hawthorn
6/West Coast
7/Adelaide
8/Melbourne
9/Pooort
10/Saints
11/Rihcmond
12/Essendon
13/Gold Coast
14/North
15/Collingwood
16/Freo
17/Brizzy
18/Carlton

 

[Alwaysacrow]

I agree. I don't get where the improvement is coming from. Take out Sloane and their midfield is the weakest in comp. If Adelaide play finals that is a great result.

I agree. I don't get where the improvement is coming from. Take out Sloane and their midfield is the weakest in comp. If Adelaide play finals that is a great result.

Worst in the comp is a massive exaggeration. Crows will make finals easily. How far they will go after that we'll have to wait and see but I expect they'll finish several spots above NM.

 

[GreyCrow]

Worst in the comp is a massive exaggeration. Crows will make finals easily. How far they will go after that we'll have to wait and see but I expect they'll finish several spots above NM.

10 spots

Its fair for everyone to call out Adelaides midfield, we on the Adelaide Board also worry. We expected Brad Crouch to be fit, and he may well get there, we didn't expect a Rory Sloane injury, but they ( fingers crossed) should be fine at the right end of the season.

Our draw gives us hope that we should finish in the 8. I think its good enough to finish top 4. But sure there are doubts. But that's what supporters do, brush aside doubts

 

[Alwaysacrow]

The issue with Adelaide as a side is that their primary focus is on avoiding getting the ball stuck in midfield - that's why they focus so much on transition play. Their whole gameplan is designed around it - quick switches, quick kicking, letting the ball do the work so their slow mids aren't exposed for pace. When other sides say they are planning on playing more people through the midfield, they do so with the intention of heavy rotations to maximize the limited burst speed endurance their players have - they just don't have the players capable of playing extended minutes at a high cadence. Whereas other sides are looking at playing others through the midfield because they can genuinely make an impact with their skill and talent.

That's the reason why Adelaide fails in finals every year. Finals are about two things - defence and midfield strength. I've yet to see a finals game where it's a forward kicking a bag of goals that decides the outcome of the match in the modern game because the time and space for forwards is heavily reduced. Sure, the Crows forward line is great (1st in the comp statistically) and their defence too (2nd) but their midfield is still and always will be their Achilles heel. You can bypass it through home and away because every team is looking to conserve energy defensively somewhat for the next game they have to play. In finals, however, there IS no tomorrow, so there is no requirement to conserve energy until the game is already won.

I've got them 4th too, but I've also got them going out in straight sets for this very reason. When they had Dangerfield they were still one elite mid away from winning the flag. Now they are two away, and guys like Thompson who they relied on as an inside mid for so long are getting too old to make a valuable contribution to the cause.

They might try to sucker punch teams with their heavy rotations on field in order to create mismatches, but honestly, it's all just smoke and mirrors. When finals roll around, their forwards will be starved of supply because you've got to be able to generate your own score launches from midfield and not just rely on teams making mistakes - finals teams are finals teams because they don't do that very often.

You make some good points although I am optimistic this year on the Crows improving in the MF.
Hampton is having a great pre-season so far along with Riley Knight; Cameron has improved his tank by all accounts as well as Menzel. 3 of those players I mentioned didn't play at all last year through injury so that's 3 additions to last year already. Crows also seem to have an easier draw on paper this year than last as well. They're finals chances will much depend on them finishing in the top 4. If they can't do that then I don't give them much hope either.

 

[Smooth Banana]

The possession based gameplan you used is what made you successful, not just the players who executed it. And that style has been made redundant by sides playing a pressure game all over the ground - which requires defensive endurance which your players don't and will never have.

Clarkson's faith in his abilities as a coach is a strength but also his biggest weakness. He complained about the Bulldogs getting away with illegal disposal in finals and rightly so, but that's not the reason you lost. You'll tread water like Essendon did with Sheedy, making finals and even winning a few...but never really challenging for a flag until one day your board wakes up and realises that 2015 was 10 years ago and doesn't renew his contract, instead hiring Luke Hodge as a favourite son who believes that the reason every other team is just that little bit better is because they are on drugs.

Oh Janus, all that to deliver a punch line that wasn't funny. Lift your game.

 

[Smooth Banana]

I've read the last few pages and I've seen a few suggesting Suns could make the eight. Amm, hello? Have you guys been watching any footy in the last 5 years?

 

[rumply]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hawks get Dustin Martin. They are so good at getting the players they set out to get. I bet you they will sell him the argument

We have lost Mitchell, Lewis & Hodge, all past Hawks greats. We plan to make our next big 3 midfield stars Jaegar O'Meara, Tom Mitchell and Dustin Martin who together will dominate the Comp and win multiple premierships under Clarko. They can still get plenty good years out of Cyril Gunston Breust Isaac Smith and few others so plenty to build around with recruiting right quality players

Where's Hodge gone?