Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[BrisbaneCFC]

Pick 3 will and should not be traded.

Why?

 

[Pafloyul]

Scully, Kennedy and Smith for pick 3 and some extras? Yes please! Where do I sign?

Here...

 

[Arr0w]

Yes, incredibly arrows do not work as well in the same situations as cannon balls, and vice versa.

The very definition of what a contested possession is has changed in this decade, and he's capable of winning some contests on the outside, 1v1. That's going when it's his turn.

You don't send him into the centre stoppage too often, but he can win his own footy, and can be developed to do so more effectively.

Let's agree to disagree

 

[Jimmae]

We should just trade pick 3 and 38 for saints pick 7 and 8.Trade Gibbs to crows for lever pick 10 and their first 17.

Gives us 7,8,10 and 17.

We'd need to throw in our future 3rd to get that trade ticked off, or 4th if the Saints become desperate to trade up, but I don't see Adelaide making that trade for Gibbs.

Worpel is Mathieson all over again. Big mid who looks great then stalls as others develop.

2nd round onwards

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While I get the comparison, Worpel's a more capable inside mid than Mathieson ever was. He should be gone before 30 despite his kicking issues.

Maybe the priority pick comes into play for the gws trade. Never know, it can happen.

What priority pick?

 

[Bokonon_]

Not sure why you're comparing the two given they play completely different roles.

Actually I think it's a fair comparison. De Boer did spend more time forward in the finals, to adress a perceived need for defensive pressure in the forward 50.
Generally I think they did compete for a defensive inside mid spot, and with Griffen when he was fit.
Kennedy is actually pretty good resting forward and csn kick goals if given that role.
De Boer has the hard experience and makes good decisions about when to block and shepherd supporting his teamates, and when to get into the contest.
Kennedy the better physical presence in IMO, and definitely the better long term prospect.

 

[james Dean]

Maybe the priority pick comes into play for the gws trade. Never know, it can happen.

If we get a priority pick on the back of 5 rising star nominations AFL house will be burned to the ground.

 

[Navara79]

Id do it, but we don't have a pick 20. Where is that coming from?

The whisperer.....

 

[Soapy V]

Not fussed at all about not getting Rockliff. Only positive was he was free. Someone else will step up. Hope we get a Miles or Balic plus some good picks. Very happy about Kennedy. I still expect the biggest improvement in our results to come from our kids.

 

[Wheels On Meals]

Any love for Ah Chee?

 

[Jeremias]

Any love for Ah Chee?

Yes actually, but I reckon he'll head back to WA.

I've always thought he's got the talent to be a pretty handy midfielder at AFL level, but he's very inconsistent and he hasn't been able to bridge that gap despite 5 years in the system.

He'll go for not much and with a bit of continuity could turn out to be a bargain get.

 

[Wheels On Meals]

Yes actually, but I reckon he'll head back to WA.

I've always thought he's got the talent to be a pretty handy midfielder at AFL level, but he's very inconsistent and he hasn't been able to bridge that gap despite 5 years in the system.

He'll go for not much and with a bit of continuity could turn out to be a bargain get.

He's quick and can win contested ball. Surprisngly he's 188cm and 89kg. At 23 (24 in December) he's right in that age group we're targetting as well.

I think you're probably right he goes back to WA. Can see him being a good fit for WCE.

 

[Coona Blues]

Not fussed at all about not getting Rockliff. Only positive was he was free. Someone else will step up. Hope we get a Miles or Balic plus some good picks. Very happy about Kennedy. I still expect the biggest improvement in our results to come from our kids.

Similar.

"Free hit" for Rocky and a means of "soaking up" our excess TPP without upsetting equilibrium
among our existing players. Would have improved us with the trickle down of roles.

Kennedy (or Hopper) is the key plank in our rebuild, another young bull to complement Crippa,
allowing the other midfield boys the chance to develop at an appropriate pace, rather than being
fast tracked due to some desperation.

We now trade or draft for needs, now being midfield depth and more pace, along with ruck(s).
It is not a huge stretch to believe the other main pieces are in place given a little time for
development.

Was a huge fan of Smith in the early years of GWS, fallen a little in stature since, although fit and
focussed would be a welcome addition. Another mature inside type would be more than handy,
Lang tops my list, but would require a precious trade . My preference however would be to draft
Tim Kelly who we have been linked with. The trick then becomes having a suitable pick to do so,
and not "reaching" ala Boekhorst. Kelly combines inside skills with significant breakaway pace and
agility, something we are short of.

A Gibbs trade would change the whole dynamic, and we keep getting conflicting reports as to what
may transpire.

My first reaction when Saad was mentioned was an emphatic no. However despite the often "headless
chook" appearance, he has some excellent lock down scalps and great disposal efficiency, not to
mention the point of difference left foot which will be missing post 2018 (Simmo). He and Lang look
to be the remaining trade targets should more ammunition be acquired.

 

[boltsbabyblues]

Take him as a rookie.

Not much risk, really depends on what we end up doing over this period/the draft. Bit of moneyball about it

 

[No1Suspect]

Recon with weagles would do #3 #38 & Boek for Gaff and #13?

2018 2nd for Kennedy. (The deal id do first)

Take #13 to the draft and grab Higgins.
Higgins > Smith

 

[Faz 2000]

Someone sent my this snippet from the paper about where the Tigers' list came from, I thought it made for interesting reading. Not that the Tigers are the recipe for guaranteed success or anything, but worth considering nonetheless.

My takeaways below from this and how they apply to Carlton list management. For context, I am resigned to the fact it's unlikely Murph/Gibbs/Kreuzer are in our next flag side, or at least they'll be veterans not the "core". For me the new core, the REBUILD, starts at ground zero, 2013, with Patrick Cripps.

1. The Richmond core and stars (JR8, Cotch, Rance, Dusty) were obtained...

• at the draft
• 8-11 years before they won the flag
• with high picks (13, 2, 18, 3 respectively)

Carlton relevance: 2013 (Cripps, Ed) and 2015 crops are our new core. I think this puts our "window" at 2020, or so, when the 2015 boys are ~22-23yo. To about 2026. Also, it says a pick like, oh, I dunno, pick 3, should be used to draft your future captain or best player. Not shopped. It's not unreasonable to think say Curnow, Cripps, Weiters and SPS could play the roles of Riewoldt, Cotchin, Rance and Dusty for us. Same players, no, but we're not talking about cloning the Tigers, just... this is how flag lists can be built.

2. You can't spent first-rounders on numpties. Ellis, Vlastuin, Rioli are not AA-calibre stars. But they're not MISSES, either. They're best 22, effective AFL footballers (Ellis can be crap, but he has some elite attributes, is durable, has played 130+ games).​

Carlton relevance: Not every first rounder is going to be a megastar, but nor do they have to be. What we CANNOT afford is Lucas-Watson-Menzel like screw-ups. We simply cannot whiff on the opportunity to get bonafide AFL players.

3. Shop for bargains. High up on that list is Houli and Grigg. Neither cost very much, but both have been VERY key to the Tigers in recent years. However they did it, they identified and lured players over, and paid way unders for what they got.
​

Carlton relevance: Sam Docherty. CHECK. Matthew Kennedy. Hopefully a CHECK - but it's all in the price. Is he MUST HAVE!?!? No. But if you obtain him for a bargain, it's a way to "get ahead" in list wealth, and a key to building a deep, strong roster.

4. Second and third rounders are people too. Sheds, Astbury, McIntosh, Graham. All played their part if getting Tigers to the flag. Astbury is Rance's foil, Sheds is a steady veteran, McIntosh provides some real dash, and hello Graham got a Norm Smith vote!
​

Carlton relevance: Back when we picked three #1s in a row, that became all anyone talked about. The stars, the number ones. But an AFL field is ENORMOUS, and an AFL side has 18 guy on the field at any given time, and 40-odd on the list. 1 or 2 or 3 guys won't make all the difference. We need many real players, and we need to value and use every pick we get in the 20s, 30s, 40s like it matters. Let's hope some of SOJ, Macreadie, Fisher and Williamson can develop further, stick around and be genuinely useful AFL players in a strong side.

5. Rookie list gems. Not bad to have Grimes, Lambert and Castagna all from pre-season/rookie list!
​

Carlton relevance: Blues have historically done well from rookie list and non-traditional sources. Keep it going!

6. Rucks are easy. Who would have ever picked Nank the Tank as a premiership ruckman? And he was bloody GOOD in the big game, too!
​

Carlton relevance: Having a star ruck is not essential. And it can be a late piece to add to a roster, because ruckmen are ALWAYS available. They're unique in that (really) only one can play at any team at any given time. Hence, when you need one, you go find a good ruck that's second at his team and he WILL move for opportunities. See Smith, Nank, Mumford, Jacobs... oh so the entire top 4's rucks. I love you Matthew Kreuzer, but your role at Carlton now is to build the culture, be a great clubman and protect the kids. We'll buy a ruck when it's time.

7. When the window is open, hit the market hard. Bringing in Caddy and Prestia was exactly the right move by the Tigers. They added genuine depth to the midfield, plus some hunger, experience and poise when it was needed.
​

Carlton relevance: The core is basically here already. Smart contracts, continued good drafting and opportunistic trading will get us to that window. And then we need to make sure we have room to BUY bits to put us over the top.

 

[LordLucifer]

Hold the press !!!!!

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...t/news-story/bf2e517955e7627870504960297031df

SUNS skipper Tom Lynch has one foot out the door and only a major turnaround would convince him to stay on the Gold Coast beyond his current deal.

Lynch has told confidantes he will return to Victoria and a club that has a chance of success at the end of next year if the Suns don’t get their coaching appointment right and begin to show immediate improvement. Gold Coast CEO Mark Evans admits the club has a fight on its hands to convince Lynch the future is bright.

 

[katmanblue]

Rockliffe's decision shows us that we still have a way to go by being a destination club. I know we have Kennedy but we want to be a club where every player wants to play for us. Now it is our duty to thrash Port and grind Rockliffe into the ground to send a message to the other players and teach him a lesson. The Carlton boys should be in his ear from the get go reminding him how he ultimately chose a s**t club.

Need to damage and mentally scar anyone who has the oppirtunity to come and doesn't.

With EVERY player on game day running through them at some stage on game day. Fairly, of course, but every opportunity to drag his face through the turf should be taken.

 

[j-top]

Source?

Better rehab


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[Burgers45]

Smith touring scum headquarters again. Not looking good at all

SMITH wants to know which team out of us and * has the better Injury Management Team. If ours is better than *, then we are frontrunners I believe..



Whatever happen, we'll know by Friday...

 

[footyfan098]

Thoughts:

gibbs > 16 and 27 (melbourne pick)
27> matt kennedy
38 > balic, 55 and 58
58 > anthony miles

out: gibbs, 38
In: Matt kennedy, Harley Balic, Anthony miles
Go to draft with: 3, 16, 55 and 56

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Id do it, but we don't have a pick 20. Where is that coming from?

Well we had Pick 20, that was part of the Zach Tuohy trade last year.

 

[katmanblue]

Nobody wants to fight you.
Straight jacket and padded cell is called for under the circumstances.

I was thinking a lobotomy is in order.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Can we all get together and agree on a no spud policy.
If it's not polished I don't want it.....way too much grasping at straws the past few pages.
We have enough dead wood and I trust SOS to replace it.....Graham, Buckley, White and Kerridge...there I named them.
While they are still on the list we are the weaker for it.
Not there fault - a couple of them have been soldiers but cannon fodder at best.
If push comes to shove I'll sacrifice and nominate for the draft, the club can recruit me, pay me a cool 2 mill (salary cap concerns fixed - nobody's overpaid) and and I'll wash the jumpers for the magoo's for a couple of seasons.

 

[Burgers45]

Mark Stevens, Ch 7 News reporting * are the frontrunners for Devon SMITH. Might miss out again I'm afraid?

 

[LordLucifer]

Devon Smith now has four Vic clubs to choose from so it may be prudent for us to bow out and let him go elsewhere.