Training 2017/2018 Pre-season Thread

[kulak]

Was that the consensus at the start of the season though, after finishing 13th in 2016?

Seem to also remember after the 2016 Grand Final, that the Bulldogs had the best list by far ....and were headed for a Dynasty

Our views vary dramatically based on recent performances ......I'm of the belief, Richmond will do a Bulldogs & struggle to make the 8

Discussion here this morning about "effort" based success versus "talent" ......can effort based success, back up that same effort after reaching the mountain top?

Bulldogs suffered a bit through injury and age and other issues.

Richmond’s finals wins didn’t have any unusual gap in effort stats like tackles. That wasn’t the cause of their wins.

They played a finals friendly quick long kicking game and pressured their opponents into slow play and overuse. That’s still going to work this year.

They still have the best attacking midfielder and the best key defender in the comp.

If Richmond have a decent injury run they will be fine, top 8 at least, probably better.

 

[kulak]

On topic but in the same spirit. If Sloane beats the tag, and plays every game in 2018 like his good games in 2017, you could argue this would make him our most improved - and would go a long way to leading us back to GF day.

 

[Vader]

Bulldogs suffered a bit through injury and age and other issues.

Richmond’s finals wins didn’t have any unusual gap in effort stats like tackles. That wasn’t the cause of their wins.

They played a finals friendly quick long kicking game and pressured their opponents into slow play and overuse. That’s still going to work this year.

They still have the best attacking midfielder and the best key defender in the comp.

If Richmond have a decent injury run they will be fine, top 8 at least, probably better.

The Bulldogs weren't the best team in 2016, but they were at the very top of their game when it mattered most. There are valid reasons why they only finished 7th after the H&A season. Winning the premiership probably papered over a few cracks. Mind you, I wish I had wallpaper of that quality.

They were never the best team to begin with, and then the wheels fell off some fairly important players (e.g. Stringer). The end result was a team which didn't even make the finals, let alone look like establishing a dynasty.

Richmond, on the other hand, were there or thereabouts for most of the season. They really only had 1 or 2 bad results, which is why they finished in the top-3. Richmond's fortunes look a lot more sustainable than the Bulldogs' ever did. Whether or not they can maintain the hunger which drove them last year, is another question entirely.

 

[Sidthehat]

The Bulldogs weren't the best team in 2016, but they were at the very top of their game when it mattered most. There are valid reasons why they only finished 7th after the H&A season. Winning the premiership probably papered over a few cracks. Mind you, I wish I had wallpaper of that quality.

They were never the best team to begin with, and then the wheels fell off some fairly important players (e.g. Stringer). The end result was a team which didn't even make the finals, let alone look like establishing a dynasty.

Richmond, on the other hand, were there or thereabouts for most of the season. They really only had 1 or 2 bad results, which is why they finished in the top-3. Richmond's fortunes look a lot more sustainable than the Bulldogs' ever did. Whether or not they can maintain the hunger which drove them last year, is another question entirely.

If Bulldogs had beaten us in 2015 would they have had any chance of doing the same then?

 

[Vader]

If Bulldogs had beaten us in 2015 would they have had any chance of doing the same then?

They were longshots for the flag in 2016 going into the finals after finishing the H&A rounds in 7th, with a 15-7 record. In 2015 they qualified 6th, with a 14-8 record. They were probably slightly better odds in 2016, but there's not a lot in it.

 

[John Who]

They were longshots for the flag in 2016 going into the finals after finishing the H&A rounds in 7th, with a 15-7 record. In 2015 they qualified 6th, with a 14-8 record. They were probably slightly better odds in 2016, but there's not a lot in it.

The Bulldogs pattern is an interesting one in the last 3 years. From genuine threat, to Premiers, to laughing stock.
I do hope that the Crows can emulate the Bulldogs, from genuine threat to taking the next big step this year.

 

[Vader]

The Bulldogs pattern is an interesting one in the last 3 years. From genuine threat, to Premiers, to laughing stock.
I do hope that the Crows can emulate the Bulldogs, from genuine threat to taking the next big step this year.

I'm not sure that finishing 6th & 7th after the H&A rounds was even enough for them to have been regarded as "genuine threats". If you can't finish in the top-4, then most of the time you're just making up the numbers. Winning from 7th was a massive, massive surprise. They had an outstanding September, but for the rest of the year they weren't even close to being one of the best teams.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Revealed: The AFL's most talented list

RICHMOND will need to produce another September boilover to win back-to-back premierships, according to Champion Data, with the AFL's official number cruncher ranking the club's list as the ninth-best in the competition.

The Tigers are ranked behind 2016 premiers the Western Bulldogs (No.7) and Hawthorn (No.8) and but they leapfrog both clubs when lists are narrowed to assess the best 22 players, jumping to seventh.

Sydney has the most talented full list as well as the best 22, while Port Adelaide comes in second for overall list strength after an aggressive off-season of recruiting, ahead of losing grand finalist Adelaide (No.3) and Greater Western Sydney (No.4).

Champion Data compares players in the same position and age categories over a number of years to give each a relative rating, which then determines the strength of a club's list.

The Tigers' boast three 'elite' players in Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin, All Australian defender Alex Rance and Grand Final star Shane Edwards.

Grand Final hero Jack Graham (five games) and 2017 bolter Jacob Townsend (37 and nine in the past two seasons) remain unclassified, given their lack of senior football.

Jack Graham should go straight to elite according to Marty

 

[Jeffcrowe]

So what champion data are saying, is that statistics are absolutely meaningless.

Not really


Swans were the form team of comp last year in second half of year = most talented list

Port
Adelaide
GWS

It checks out I reckon

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Not really


Swans were the form team of comp last year in second half of year = most talented list

Port
Adelaide
GWS

It checks out I reckon

But Jeff, CD was talking Lists, not team .....the first half of the season showed, the Sydney list to be talented, but raw

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm not sure that finishing 6th & 7th after the H&A rounds was even enough for them to have been regarded as "genuine threats". If you can't finish in the top-4, then most of the time you're just making up the numbers. Winning from 7th was a massive, massive surprise. They had an outstanding September, but for the rest of the year they weren't even close to being one of the best teams.

Correct ....on the eve of the Finals, most "experts" thought the Bulldogs were simply making up the numbers

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[John Who]

I'm not sure that finishing 6th & 7th after the H&A rounds was even enough for them to have been regarded as "genuine threats". If you can't finish in the top-4, then most of the time you're just making up the numbers. Winning from 7th was a massive, massive surprise. They had an outstanding September, but for the rest of the year they weren't even close to being one of the best teams.

You can probably say since the Bulldogs winning the premiership, finishing outside top 4 now has a much higher probability to take out the premiership. It's also due to the fact you get 1 week rest between the minor and major rounds, which helps the teams 5-8 immensely. But you can also argue that the competition has become much more narrow from teams 1 to 8 in the recent years, so a chance of a Premiership outside the top 4 (in Minor round standings) is certainly much more gettable these days.

 

[Vader]

You can probably say since the Bulldogs winning the premiership, finishing outside top 4 now has a much higher probability to take out the premiership. It's also due to the fact you get 1 week rest between the minor and major rounds, which helps the teams 5-8 immensely. But you can also argue that the competition has become much more narrow from teams 1 to 8 in the recent years, so a chance of a Premiership outside the top 4 (in Minor round standings) is certainly much more gettable these days.

The Dogs are/were the first (and still the only) team to have won the flag after finishing in the bottom half of the 8, since the current system was introduced. Adelaide did it in the 1990s, but that was under a different system.

The bye after R23 is definitely a benefit that they didn't previously enjoy... but they still don't have a high probability of doing what the Bulldogs did. The top-4 are almost invariably better than the teams who finished 5-8. That's why they're at the top of the ladder, and the 5-8 teams aren't. The best teams will usually win, especially in an era where they also benefit from playing home finals (except for Geelong and the Grand Final). Yes, their chances have improved... but only from 1% to 2%.

 

[Sanders]

I would argue that McGovern has shown just as much if not more than Milera.

Is that even a question?

 

[kulak]

Is that even a question?

Yes Gov has shown far more

although Gov is 23 and Milera only 20 so it is not an equal comparison.

 

[John Who]

The Dogs are/were the first (and still the only) team to have won the flag after finishing in the bottom half of the 8, since the current system was introduced. Adelaide did it in the 1990s, but that was under a different system.

The bye after R23 is definitely a benefit that they didn't previously enjoy... but they still don't have a high probability of doing what the Bulldogs did. The top-4 are almost invariably better than the teams who finished 5-8. That's why they're at the top of the ladder, and the 5-8 teams aren't. The best teams will usually win, especially in an era where they also benefit from playing home finals (except for Geelong and the Grand Final). Yes, their chances have improved... but only from 1% to 2%.

At least we can agree that there seems to be an increase chance of taking out the big cup outside the top 4. Would be interesting to see how it pans out the next 10 years and to see if there will be any other "Bulldog" repeats like in 2016.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Who said AFL Teams would copy the Bulldogs / Richmond models in 2018 ? ......those teams went against history, it wasn't the traditional structures that have stood the test of time


Bulldogs upfront about emulating the Crows
Adelaide's tall forward trio may provide template for Dogs in 2018

 

[Vader]

At least we can agree that there seems to be an increase chance of taking out the big cup outside the top 4. Would be interesting to see how it pans out the next 10 years and to see if there will be any other "Bulldog" repeats like in 2016.

They definitely have a better chance than they used to. The bye before the finals has seen to that.

Beyond that, they still face at least 2 teams which finished in the top-4 (semi & preliminary finals). Both of those games are played on the top-4 team's home deck (unless you're playing Geelong). Teams finishing 5-8 have to win 4 consecutive games, at least 2 of which are against teams that were better than them in the H&A season. It's a tall order - but the Bulldogs showed it's not impossible.

 

[matty p]

Let's not forget that the 2016 season was one of the most even in history. The top 6 were separated by only 1 game, with the Bulldogs a further one win behind in 7th (and only after they tanked their round 23 match in Perth because they were already locked into 7th spot).

If any season was going to result in a premier coming from outside the top 4 it was that one.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Mismatched]

Who said AFL Teams would copy the Bulldogs / Richmond models in 2018 ? ......those teams went against history, it wasn't the traditional structures that have stood the test of time


Bulldogs upfront about emulating the Crows
Adelaide's tall forward trio may provide template for Dogs in 2018

It’s a really interesting area, there’s always talk about clubs trying to emulate what the premier did last season, but in reality it’s really difficult. Firstly game plans evolve, change and adapt throughout about 8-10 week patches through the season, let alone between seasons. If you’re too focused on the past, you’ll get left behind. You don’t want last years successful gameplan/tactics, you want this years successful gameplan/tactics, because everyone’s spent all summer analysing last years successful tactics, finding its weakness and developing tactics to counter it.

The other aspect is you have to have the cattle to execute your gameplan. There’s no point having a highly thought out, complex gameplan if you’ve got a young inexperienced list. They’re going to struggle to implement it. Just like there’s no point having a 3 tall forward structure if you don’t have 3 quality tall forwards. This is one of the reasons I think the Bulldogs and Richmond were able to achieve ultimate success despite not having the strongest, most talented lists.

The majority of this board has spent the whole summer bemoaning the fact that neither Walker or Jenkins a strong enough in the pack situation, yet we were beaten by a side who had one recognised key forward and a smaller one at that in Jack Riewoldt, who similar to Jenkins and Walker, is hardly a pack crashing beast. The difference is Riewoldt isn’t trying to be a pack crashing beast, he weighs in at 92kgs which allows him to maximise his strengths. At the same height, Walker weighs in at 102kg and Jenkins weighs in at 108kg.

The game is moving on from the monster key forwards. How useless has Tom Hawkins been of late. Tippett can hardly get a game for Sydney. Travis Cloke flopped significantly in the past few years. Patton struggles to impact against decent competition. Tom Boyd is a one match wonder.

Walker and Jenkins need to lose 7-10kg each IMO, their main issue isn’t their struggle to win contested/pack marking contests, it’s their difficulty finding separation from their opponents, both in the air and on the ground. Defenders are getting smarter and more athletic, they know not to engage the likes of Walker and Jenkins in body contact early, just keep up with the and engage at the last possible moment for the spoil. All carrying extra weight does is slow Walker and Jenkins down, reduce separation on their opponents, tire them out easier so they get to less contests and have less energy when they do make it and finally makes them more prone to lower limb stress type injuries.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

It’s a really interesting area, there’s always talk about clubs trying to emulate what the premier did last season, but in reality it’s really difficult. Firstly game plans evolve, change and adapt throughout about 8-10 week patches through the season, let alone between seasons. If you’re too focused on the past, you’ll get left behind. You don’t want last years successful gameplan/tactics, you want this years successful gameplan/tactics, because everyone’s spent all summer analysing last years successful tactics, finding its weakness and developing tactics to counter it.

The other aspect is you have to have the cattle to execute your gameplan. There’s no point having a highly thought out, complex gameplan if you’ve got a young inexperienced list. They’re going to struggle to implement it. Just like there’s no point having a 3 tall forward structure if you don’t have 3 quality tall forwards. This is one of the reasons I think the Bulldogs and Richmond were able to achieve ultimate success despite not having the strongest, most talented lists.

The majority of this board has spent the whole summer bemoaning the fact that neither Walker or Jenkins a strong enough in the pack situation, yet we were beaten by a side who had one recognised key forward and a smaller one at that in Jack Riewoldt, who similar to Jenkins and Walker, is hardly a pack crashing beast. The difference is Riewoldt isn’t trying to be a pack crashing beast, he weighs in at 92kgs which allows him to maximise his strengths. At the same height, Walker weighs in at 102kg and Jenkins weighs in at 108kg.

The game is moving on from the monster key forwards. How useless has Tom Hawkins been of late. Tippett can hardly get a game for Sydney. Travis Cloke flopped significantly in the past few years. Patton struggles to impact against decent competition. Tom Boyd is a one match wonder.

Walker and Jenkins need to lose 7-10kg each IMO, their main issue isn’t their struggle to win contested/pack marking contests, it’s their difficulty finding separation from their opponents, both in the air and on the ground. Defenders are getting smarter and more athletic, they know not to engage the likes of Walker and Jenkins in body contact early, just keep up with the and engage at the last possible moment for the spoil. All carrying extra weight does is slow Walker and Jenkins down, reduce separation on their opponents, tire them out easier so they get to less contests and have less energy when they do make it and finally makes them more prone to lower limb stress type injuries.

This has been discussed a lot in the MELB media .....thrust is, if you try and follow last years premier, you'll go backwards

I agree, the Power Forward that isn't all that mobile is dying (not dead), but in critical condition .......if rotations are reduced again, this may very well be their salvation

Also the exercise last year of Dangerfield positioned at FF, one out proved a success ......will we see more of this stay at home forward in 2018

I've said for a while that IMO Tex is too big .....seems to have been a by product of his recovery from the knee ......i'd like to see 5Kg's stripped, so he can retain that evasiveness, that was such a strong part of his game a few years back

I disagree re JJ ......he's still one of the quickest on the list ....his weight is fine

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Just on my last post .....Fyfe one out in the goal square, along with Dusty and Danger is a dangerous possibility

Tex couldn't be that player for us .....his overhead skills are not strong enough ....but McGovern could excel, superior overhead skills and superfast on the lead

 

[GreyCrow]

They are all copying Roo anyway. Kicked 6 from FF in a game. Just beast mode on the lead