Strategy Lukosius All In POLL

[Shaz2012]

It depends which picks and how many we have. If it’s our 2019 first, 12 and 18 and we hold on to 6 from Sloane and a first rounder from Lynch (say 16) then we still go into the draft with 6, 16, 19, 37 and 55.

That’s a pretty good hand if you add Lukoisus to it.

Assumes we win the premiership and Sloane wins the Norm Smith, but like I say. It depends.

 

[Elite Crow]

It depends which picks and how many we have. If it’s our 2019 first, 12 and 18 and we hold on to 6 from Sloane and a first rounder from Lynch (say 16) then we still go into the draft with 6, 16, 19, 37 and 55.

That’s a pretty good hand if you add Lukoisus to it.

Assumes we win the premiership and Sloane wins the Norm Smith, but like I say. It depends.

6 for Sloane and we keep our picks, no chance.

 

[Crow till I die]

I think our best bet to get a pick around the top 5 in the draft is to bundle either the carlton pick or one of our 1st round picks with either lynch or sloane so that a st kilda for example gets the ready made player now to help their younger players develop that has true onfield leadership skills and a teens pick in this draft (so they stay inside top 20). no point in bundling 3 very good picks together as it is too big a risk for 1 single player

 

[Elite Crow]

I think our best bet to get a pick around the top 5 in the draft is to bundle either the carlton pick or one of our 1st round picks with either lynch or sloane so that a st kilda for example gets the ready made player now to help their younger players develop that has true onfield leadership skills and a teens pick in this draft (so they stay inside top 20). no point in bundling 3 very good picks together as it is too big a risk for 1 single player

So in effect 2 teen first rounders for a top 5 pick, I would do that but would the other team?

That would still leave us with 1 first rounder and Carlton’s pick.

 

[Crow till I die]

So in effect 2 teen first rounders for a top 5 pick, I would do that but would the other team?

That would still leave us with 1 first rounder and Carlton’s pick.

I was thinking more about the deal itself rather than a points comparison. A lower club getting a topline player that can help in the here and now AND being able to draft a very good kid for the future. Putting the shoe on the other foot if the crows were languishing down the bottom 6 and had done for a few years, would the chance to grab a gibbs (using him as a player in a similar age bracket and of similar quality to lynch and sloane and assumes we never got him last year for the purpose of the point) and a late 1st round draft pick for for a pick 5,6 or 7 in the draft?. I would do the deal as it would instantly make the midfield better and still net us a chance at a good kid

 

[Elite Crow]

I was thinking more about the deal itself rather than a points comparison. A lower club getting a topline player that can help in the here and now AND being able to draft a very good kid for the future. Putting the shoe on the other foot if the crows were languishing down the bottom 6 and had done for a few years, would the chance to grab a gibbs (using him as a player in a similar age bracket and of similar quality to lynch and sloane and assumes we never got him last year for the purpose of the point) and a late 1st round draft pick for for a pick 5,6 or 7 in the draft?. I would do the deal as it would instantly make the midfield better and still net us a chance at a good kid

I wasn’t thinking of the points system, I reckon that’s irrelevant when it comes to trading, that’s used for academy picks etc, I doubt clubs factor that in to trading.

If a team with pick 5 has the cash, they could blow us away, get Sloane and keep pick 5.

Given our salary cap constraints, I don’t think we will be in a position to match a high offer. We could possibly be losing Lynch due to our cap.

 

[Crow till I die]

I wasn’t thinking of the points system, I reckon that’s irrelevant when it comes to trading, that’s used for academy picks etc, I doubt clubs factor that in to trading.

If a team with pick 5 has the cash, they could blow us away, get Sloane and keep pick 5.

Given our salary cap constraints, I don’t think we will be in a position to match a high offer. We could possibly be losing Lynch due to our cap.

Ok sloane goes to a club with wads of cash and we get a 1st round pick. But lynch goes via trade and that is where my scenario still holds. Now it might also involve a swap of some later / future picks to get the job done

 

[conVINCEd]

I wasn’t thinking of the points system, I reckon that’s irrelevant when it comes to trading, that’s used for academy picks etc, I doubt clubs factor that in to trading.

If a team with pick 5 has the cash, they could blow us away, get Sloane and keep pick 5.

Given our salary cap constraints, I don’t think we will be in a position to match a high offer. We could possibly be losing Lynch due to our cap.

Perhaps our stand-off with Lynch is because we want extra salary cap space to match a mega Sloane deal from St Kilda or the Kangaroos?

Ensures they have to trade for Sloane and delivers a better return.

Seems risky but this draft is bloody beautiful at the top end and I think Justin Reid is concerned about the advanced age of all our better forwards.

 

[Elite Crow]

Perhaps our stand-off with Lynch is because we want extra salary cap space to match a mega Sloane deal from St Kilda or the Kangaroos?

Ensures they have to trade for Sloane and delivers a better return.

Seems risky but this draft is bloody beautiful at the top end and I think Justin Reid is concerned about the advanced age of all our better forwards.

I think it’s more the latter. I doubt we would risk Lynch on a hunch we might need the cap space to match.

 

[Golumless]

I think it’s more the latter. I doubt we would risk Lynch on a hunch we might need the cap space to match.

I reckon we would, after all if we see Fogarty as a long term KPF, Lynch isn't someone who is necessary to keep*


*I would argue he isn't regardless but without a A+ prospect in the wings it does become a "why **** with something that works" kinda deal.

 

[Tex200]

Would do for Luko - not any of the other SA kids.

Hamish has so many runs on the board will be impossible to argue against the eventual outcome on draft day.

 

[Shaz2012]

6 for Sloane and we keep our picks, no chance.

In which case I wouldn’t do the bundle. My point is, it depends which 3 picks we give up and what that leaves us with.

 

[douglyzia]

What's the odds Ian Perrie ends up having a better AFL career than McCartin? Not based on talent, but better luck with injuries/concussions.

 

[On The Crouch]

I don’t believe in selling the farm for a superstar, and particularly for an untried 18 year old who may struggle to cope with such high expectations. He certainly wouldn’t be the first.

I certainly wouldn’t be gambling my house on a “sure” thing in the hope of doubling or tripling my investment.

Hamish would love to have 3-4 picks in the top 25 in such a strong draft. He could do a lot with them and set us up for a long time.

 

[conVINCEd]

I think it’s more the latter. I doubt we would risk Lynch on a hunch we might need the cap space to match.

Hmmm. It might also be that we want to convince Sloane to stay because he can get a generous pay day here, and won’t be as tempted by ‘going home + $1 million’ (over the duration of a contract).

Maybe we’re ok with Lynch moving on to get another pick in the draft, but really want to keep Rory.

 

[huludicidal]

If one of the “late first round picks” is actually Carlton’s second rounder, then I’m actually all for this PlayStation fantasy trade that will never eventuate.

Let’s say at the end of Finals, we finish 4th, Melbourne finish 6th, and Carlton finish 18th.

That gives us picks 13, 15, 19.

Then Sloane leaves. We don’t match the offer, because that’s not actually a thing that happens. We then have picks 13, 14, 16 and 20 (the latter two are bumped back one spot by the insertion of our FA compo).

The wildcard is Lynch. A) we have no idea if he’s staying or not, and B) we don’t really know what to expect for him in a trade if he does leave, as it all comes down to which club he nominates and what assets they’re willing to part with. For argument’s sake, let’s say that he either stays, or we get a 2019 first rounder for him (ie the Lynch situation doesn’t impact our standing in this year’s draft).

So, in this scenario, we are taking picks 13, 14, 16 and 20 to trade week.

I’ll tell you right now, there is pretty close to a zero percent chance we’ll be reading out 4 names in the top 20 on draft night.

Would we consider packaging up, say, 13, 14 and 20 for Pick 1? Considering the fact that Lukosius is from SA and literally touted as the best key forward prospect since N Riewoldt by everyone in the know, yes, I believe we would consider it.

We would also still be retaining pick 16, which could net us a C Rozee or J Hately type if we’re super lucky (Hately looks set to go top 10 but maybe things change). Regardless of whether one of those two is available here, we’d be getting someone who has a good chance to become a quality player. Not a once in a generation talent like Jack Lukosius, but a quality player.

Chances are Carlton / Brisbane will not be actively seeking out such a trade anyway, but on the off chance they were, i’m definitely entertaining the possibility of pulling the trigger.

 

[mistylake]

But remember, we will have later picks anyway - whether as picks coming back from the other club or we can have as many late picks as we have list positions ... Hamish Magic!

So swap our 3 first rounders for 1 and get back 19,20 or so.
Sounds fair.

 

[Sanguinarius]

Can't wait for draft day after we've traded up to a high first and we select a Victorian with it.

 

[mistylake]

Can't wait for draft day after we've traded up to a high first and we select a Victorian with it.

Especially if he’s considered a future leader.

 

[Sanders]

Hmmm. It might also be that we want to convince Sloane to stay because he can get a generous pay day here, and won’t be as tempted by ‘going home + $1 million’ (over the duration of a contract).

Maybe we’re ok with Lynch moving on to get another pick in the draft, but really want to keep Rory.

I doubt we’ll be making any crazy offers for Rory. His value has plummeted in the last 18 months

I’m sure we’d prefer he stayed but I can’t see anything silly being offered to him.

 

[Sanders]

If

Would we consider packaging up, say, 13, 14 and 20 for Pick 1? Considering the fact that Lukosius is from SA and literally touted as the best key forward prospect since N Riewoldt by everyone in the know, yes, I believe we would consider it.

Good post all round, but on this

In 2000 (riewoldts year) 13,14 and 20 netted

Ashley McGrath
Daniel Harris
Kane Cornes

Who in their right mind would give up Riewoldt for that lot?

 

[John Who]

If it's supposedly a Super Draft year, then what's to say we won't get a similar ace player with our first pick?

We seem to be having quite a good run of late with our top pick in talents - Milera, Doedee, Gooch, Fog. All look like above average players with scope for reaching elite status hopefully in 2-3 more years.

The other thing a lot of people don't seem to factor, is that if this Lukosius is really as good as a Nick Riewoldt, then what's to say he won't get a massive offer by an interstate club a few years down the track? Are we guaranteed of keeping him as a one-club player? And if so, what would be the salary cap sacrifice in keeping him till retirement?

 

[Bicks]

If it's supposedly a Super Draft year, then what's to say we won't get a similar ace player with our first pick?

We seem to be having quite a good run of late with our top pick in talents - Milera, Doedee, Gooch, Fog. All look like above average players with scope for reaching elite status hopefully in 2-3 more years.

The other thing a lot of people don't seem to factor, is that if this Lukosius is really as good as a Nick Riewoldt, then what's to say he won't get a massive offer by an interstate club a few years down the track? Are we guaranteed of keeping him as a one-club player? And if so, what would be the salary cap sacrifice in keeping him till retirement?

The top end SA players we've lost to interstate teams are?? Nathan Bock to an expansion team on $$$$ we couldn't match, Davis ditto, the others?

 

[Houston]

Only if Lynch decides to go.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Good post all round, but on this

In 2000 (riewoldts year) 13,14 and 20 netted

Ashley McGrath
Daniel Harris
Kane Cornes

Who in their right mind would give up Riewoldt for that lot?

Was Riewoldt’s year of 2000 considered a superdraft though?...

Because if youre to believe what a lot of people are saying about this “superdraft”... which is that the talent on offer goes deep into the second round... this probably means that the top 4-6 players would all be potentially the no.1 draft pick in any normal year.. and the top 20 or so players this year could probably be close to top 5 picks in any normal year.

So.. If you’ve got 3-4 picks in the top 20 in the 10-20 range that’s gonna net you 3-4 lads that would be top 5 in a normal year.. Crows have 3 at this point.. lose Sloane (likely) and we’ll have 4, let lynch go and we could have 5..

5 players that in any normal draft year that would go top 5 is a serious injection of talent into the squad and could potentially form the basis of a premiership side in the next decade when added to some of the talented youth like fog, Laird, McGovern etc we have now.. I’d trade two of those picks to get an earlier pick and thus end up with 4 lads.. but I wouldn’t wanna trade three to get pick 1 and risk it on Lukosius and only get him and two others.. it’s far too big a risk in a draft that’s got so much talent imo..