The Brazilian democratic system has had a turbulent couple of years, with the impeachment of Dilma, the installation of Temer and the conviction of Lula. Their presidential election, with its first round of voting on Sunday, is causing a great deal of international attention (and I'm kind of surprised there isn't a thread on it already).
Lula, the President from 2003 to 2011, was leading the polls with a comfortable majority. Previously acknowledged as the most popular politician in the world, he has controversially been barred from running as a candidate in this election due to being found guilty of corruption and money laundering. His party (the left wing Workers' Party) has, in his place, put forward the former Sao Paolo Mayor Fernando Haddad. He is currently polling second with approximately 22% of the vote. This is well below Lula's polling numbers, although he has only been the official party nominee for less than a month, as Lula was still appealing his barring in the courts.
Leading the polls is Jair Bolsonaro from the far right Social Liberal Party (unusual name for a far right party, but I digress), who is currently sitting at around 36% of the vote. Bolsonaro has previously been called the most misogynistic, hateful elected official in the democratic world and the world's most repulsive politician. He has caused controversy in saying that women should be paid less than men (and that, of his children, his daughter was conceived in a moment of weakness), has said that Brazil's military dictatorship's error was in torturing where it should have killed (and made similar comments that Pinochet in nearby Chile should have killed more people), has said he would prefer his son to die in a car accident than to turn out to be gay, has said that he would attack two men if he came across them kissing in the street, and has implied his support for the forced sterilisation of the poor. His polling has surged since a failed assassination attempt a month ago.
The other left wing party is polling third with around 11% of the vote, centrist parties (including the party of President Michel Temer) are cumulatively polling 15% and the "mainstream" right party is polling around 3% (inverted commas because they are mainstream as we traditionally know it, clearly given the polling they are not who Brazilian conservatives are currently gravitating towards).
The likely outcome from this weekend is that a second vote will be required between Haddad and Bolsonaro, which would take place on 28 October. Polls suggest such a vote would be extremely close.
This is an extremely important election for both Brazil and the Global South, and indeed the democratic world, where far right politics seem increasingly to be on the rise.
Lula, the President from 2003 to 2011, was leading the polls with a comfortable majority. Previously acknowledged as the most popular politician in the world, he has controversially been barred from running as a candidate in this election due to being found guilty of corruption and money laundering. His party (the left wing Workers' Party) has, in his place, put forward the former Sao Paolo Mayor Fernando Haddad. He is currently polling second with approximately 22% of the vote. This is well below Lula's polling numbers, although he has only been the official party nominee for less than a month, as Lula was still appealing his barring in the courts.
Leading the polls is Jair Bolsonaro from the far right Social Liberal Party (unusual name for a far right party, but I digress), who is currently sitting at around 36% of the vote. Bolsonaro has previously been called the most misogynistic, hateful elected official in the democratic world and the world's most repulsive politician. He has caused controversy in saying that women should be paid less than men (and that, of his children, his daughter was conceived in a moment of weakness), has said that Brazil's military dictatorship's error was in torturing where it should have killed (and made similar comments that Pinochet in nearby Chile should have killed more people), has said he would prefer his son to die in a car accident than to turn out to be gay, has said that he would attack two men if he came across them kissing in the street, and has implied his support for the forced sterilisation of the poor. His polling has surged since a failed assassination attempt a month ago.
The other left wing party is polling third with around 11% of the vote, centrist parties (including the party of President Michel Temer) are cumulatively polling 15% and the "mainstream" right party is polling around 3% (inverted commas because they are mainstream as we traditionally know it, clearly given the polling they are not who Brazilian conservatives are currently gravitating towards).
The likely outcome from this weekend is that a second vote will be required between Haddad and Bolsonaro, which would take place on 28 October. Polls suggest such a vote would be extremely close.
This is an extremely important election for both Brazil and the Global South, and indeed the democratic world, where far right politics seem increasingly to be on the rise.