AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Walshawk]

Things ebb and flow and RL in QLD is definitely in a trough. Will bounce back and remain the number 1 for at least a generation, though the AFL is also assuredly growing.

This expansion could be a disaster for them tho. I dont think there's ever been a defensive expansion of a competition in Australia before. Will be interesting to see how that goes.

What do you mean by ‘defensive expansion’?

 

[Goomba1973]

If three premierships on the trot did not cement AFL in Qld then nothing will........ AFL will be back page until the Broncos start playing well again the it will just be a footnote next to the obituaries in the local rags.

 

[Gigantor]

If three premierships on the trot did not cement AFL in Qld then nothing will........ AFL will be back page until the Broncos start playing well again the it will just be a footnote next to the obituaries in the local rags.

For 8 or 9 seasons, the Lions were woeful.
Pretty good to have maintained interest after those 8 or 9 terrible seasons.

 

[Fire]

What do you mean by ‘defensive expansion’?

Expansion to curtail the growth of AFL in the region, and to shore up and potentially recover lost market share.

 

[werdna78]

If three premierships on the trot did not cement AFL in Qld then nothing will........ AFL will be back page until the Broncos start playing well again the it will just be a footnote next to the obituaries in the local rags.

That was 20 years ago, things are different now. There is a 2nd team in QLD, Broncos are down and will be for a while. Fans won't watch them and will look for something else.

It's one of the reasons I became disenchanted with RL and used to watch Miranda on a Friday night.

The first 3 premierships probably aren't appreciated by most Queenslanders.

 

[Walshawk]

Yeah that's right.

We forget the tribalism is far shallower in League and so people will often change teams.

That was 20 years ago, things are different now. There is a 2nd team in QLD, Broncos are down and will be for a while. Fans won't watch them and will look for something else.

It's one of the reasons I became disenchanted with RL and used to watch Miranda on a Friday night.

The first 3 premierships probably aren't appreciated by most Queenslanders.

Agree. One period of success does not change much. Even Hawthorn after seven flags in 15 (76 - 91) years hardly grew. Sure lots of kids were following the Hawks but it did not translate into bigger crowds or memberships. It took the second phase of success 20 years later to actually grow. The kids of the 80s were now in their 30s & 40s and started bringing their kids to games and buying memberships. A second period of Lions success 20 years later will lock in the fans.

 

[AFLQLD]

If three premierships on the trot did not cement AFL in Qld then nothing will........ AFL will be back page until the Broncos start playing well again the it will just be a footnote next to the obituaries in the local rags.

It raises an interesting point. AFL has pretty much bypassed local print and to some extent TV media now. As have nearly all entertainment options for millennials and younger. The generations that read the Courier Mail are not really the ones that AFL is chasing. Most people under 30 get plenty of AFL news from apps, online and streaming if they want it.

In this regard I think the subtle shift to AFL has been partly generational and cultural. Rugby League seems still very tied to the past because their core fans are.

Younger fans will move on if there is a cooler product to be a part of. It is why the Broncos current tribulations must worry the NRL so much - they need to turn it around now or risk losing the next generation who don’t want to watch a dull losing team that their parents and grandparents follow.

 

[megadeth86]

In what way? It’s actually hurt league IMO. The proliferation of these bigger more athletic guys has pretty much put an end to heaps of careers at all levels

I was speaking in terms of player numbers only.

 

[werdna78]

IMO SOO is in trouble. Now I'm a Queenslander and I can take a loss.

The problem is how uncompetitive QLD are.

People will point out QLD have had an era of dominance, but the games were still competitive, QLD never flogged NSW.

 

[Obzerva]

I heard Sco Mo changed teams, but I wouldn't expect anything less from marketing man

from memory he tweeted something about sports teams he follows, Wallabies etc and the Sharks didn’t crack a mention.
Now he just wraps himself in their gift shop.

 

[RUNVS]

If the NRL bring in 2 more Queensland teams that basically locks them out of expanding anywhere else doesn't? I mean I don't think the NRL can have 19 or 20 teams in the competition as the market and talent pool is not big enough, so if they go through with the Queensland plan that means no team in Perth, Adelaide or a second team in Melbourne.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Still could relocate a club, but unlikely as the NRL has little to no appetite for opening new markets.

 

[RUNVS]

Still could relocate a club, but unlikely as the NRL has little to no appetite for opening new markets.

Also the AFL has proven how hard it is to actually relocate clubs as the AFL knows 9 teams in Melbourne is too much but they are basically powerless to move any of them.

 

[Gigantor]

With the greatest of respect to V'landys, being both chair and CEO of the 2nd biggest sport in Australia, he and his cohorts are clueless.
If the time taken to put a 2nd club in the world's 2nd biggest rugby league city wasn't bad enough, we now have a dozen clubs commissioning a report to put the kybosh on the idea, and if that weren't bad enough, the QRL has come out to say they would prefer a re-located club from Sydney.
I mean fair dinkum, do these blokes know nothing?

 

[PhatBoy]

IMO SOO is in trouble. Now I'm a Queenslander and I can take a loss.

The problem is how uncompetitive QLD are.

People will point out QLD have had an era of dominance, but the games were still competitive, QLD never flogged NSW.

I’m a Queensland fan too and to be fair they’ve fielded teams this bad before and even though NSW are talking about their current team like it’s their best ever, reality is they fielded teams in the 1990s with Johns and Fittler as their halves - as good as Cleary is (Luai is nothing special) he’s not in the same league as those two. Outside them you had players like McGregor, Mullins, Brasher, Ettingshausen - hell, Laurie Daley was pushed to the centres! Harragon, Menzies, Clyde, Toovey, Furner, Carroll in the pack.

worse Queensland sides have been more competitive than this one so I’d like to see whether this is a one off or whether it’s ongoing.
I have a suspicion that the rule changes have had a fairly big impact - momentum is nearly impossible to stop under the current interpretations.
Having said that, game two is more of a worry than game one because Queensland actually did manage to stop the repeat line breaks and tries etc and still couldn’t mount a challenge

 

[AFLQLD]

Rugby League is at a crossroads in so many ways at the moment. I think that the NRL has internally all but given up on even pretending to be a national code and is simply aiming to keep the territory it can claim ownership of. Queensland must now be it’s biggest concern - any weakening of its hold on Queensland would be a critical wound. The central, west and north of the state (bar Cairns perhaps) are very safe but the southeast is changing demographically, culturally and in terms of entertainment and lifestyle options. And those changes don’t bode well for Rugby League.

The danger of Rugby League gradually becoming the niche sport of choice for, as someone recently put it to me, “islanders, bogans and ex-country people” must keep QRL administrators awake at night. The State of Origin can’t withstand a period of NSW dominance like Queensland had up until several years ago. The Broncos are increasingly relevant only as a cautionary tale of hubris and many casual fans are opting to do other things. Those two things alone are creating waning interest in the game as entertainment.

A decade ago I knew dozens of people with Broncos memberships or who regularly attended games. None have done so for the last few years and have no real plan of going back even if they begin winning. Some just follow the game occasionally on TV, some drifted away to other activities, a few took greater interest in AFL. Some have kids and grandkids and they aren’t or most likely won’t play Rugby League beyond maybe a bit in primary school. They might play another football code, probably split between soccer and AFL. A few might dabble in rugby union at school. Other sports beckon as well.

The other boat that Rugby League missed was women’s sport. AFL got a huge head start on other sports with AFLW and its significance in Queensland shouldn’t be underestimated. It is ticking a lot of boxes for girls, for clubs, for schools and for governments justifying spending on sporting facilities. The QAFL run a women’s league and development league and plenty of clubs have, or will soon have women’s teams stretching well back into juniors. Talented girls have a genuine chance of being developed and drafted. The next generation of female Qld AFLW players are going to be truly “native” AFL players coached and raised with all of the skills the boys have traditionally grown up with from an early age.

Again, Rugby League’s problem is going to be how it is potentially perceived as a game dominated by physically bigger girls. It won’t be fun for very long running into girls with 15 kg and 15 cm on you. The nature of AFL makes it more accessible to many more people in terms of physical attributes. But the best effect I believe is a generational one. Winning over girls to AFL now is going to matter a lot 15-20 years from now when they choose sports for their own children.

It isn’t just that AFL is growing in SEQld, in fact this might temporarily be the least of the NRL’s problems, but that general interest in Rugby League in SEQld seems to be slowly declining in all but some very specific demographics.

 

[Goomba1973]

That was 20 years ago, things are different now. There is a 2nd team in QLD, Broncos are down and will be for a while. Fans won't watch them and will look for something else.

It's one of the reasons I became disenchanted with RL and used to watch Miranda on a Friday night.

The first 3 premierships probably aren't appreciated by most Queenslanders.

They bloody well should be appreciated, that team was as good as I have ever seen in any era .....

 

[Gigantor]

As that bloke who wrote Code Wars said: the other codes approach the code war as if it's nil-all.
This largely explains a couple of the delusions you read about regularly amongst other sports fans.
In the case of soccer, it's a fair dinkum cargo cult mentality: that next marquee; that next rich owner, that next meagre TV deal, an appearance on a TV reality show, that's going to be the one which propels the professional level of the sport up the ladder.

 

[Hoops]

abc.net.au 25.6.21

Dr. H. Fujak, Aust.'s most prominent academic that specialises on the relative strengths & weaknesses in Aust. of AF, RL, soccer, & RU, said:-

. "The AFL is winning the code wars".

. one in five Australians are interested in AF, & no other football code.

. "We've seen the AFL make really strong gains in Qld.".

(Fujak, of Polish background, who spent nearly all his life in Sydney, has described A League games in Aust. as having the best atmosphere in Australian sport. His book was published by a company that- until Fujak's book- only publishes books, magazines, websites etc. about soccer in Aust.)

E. Buckley, a sports' consultant, who was formerly Chair of Netball Australia, & CEO of Brisbane Roar, said "the AFLW has been a game changer".

The other codes believe they can halt the AFL's continuing growth trajectory & dominance.


Expansion, private equity and female investment the new frontiers in footy code war
By Jack SnapePosted 2ddays ago

The AFLW has made a splash in Queensland, now the NRLW is expanding [C. 2027, NRLW & GR female contact RL are likely to be strong in NSW & Qld.]

Rugby League Commissioner chair Peter V'landys could not have been more explicit."It's our territory and we will protect it. It's rugby league heartland."
Rugby league's part-administrator, part-commander-in-chief was talking on Nine Radio in May about the AFL's steps into Queensland.
Most dramatically, Brisbane hosted much of the AFL season last year as COVID-19 gripped Victoria.
"Look the AFL have done a wonderful job," he added.
"They've held our hands. Made us feel warm and fuzzy while they've invaded us."

The comments came as a new book titled Code Wars lands on shelves.
Its author, Dr Hunter Fujak, has spent the past seven years studying the dynamics of football in this country.

Dr Hunter Fujak writes in his new book that AFL is winning the football code wars.

He's in no doubt which code is currently on top.
"The AFL is winning the code wars," he says, "followed by rugby league, soccer and rugby union bringing in the tail."
Dr Fujak cites the fact that one in five Australians are interested in AFL and no other football code. He points out AFL brings in more revenue than anyone else each year. And he highlights clubs in the AFL are largely profitable.
But don't tell those in charge of the other codes, who continue to battle like the score is nil-all.

Queensland the focus
While other codes have presence in the AFL states of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, Queensland — as the fastest growing state — has become the front line in the footy code wars.
"We've seen the AFL make really strong gains in Queensland," Dr Fujak says, "television audiences in Brisbane are very strong and rugby league audiences are declining."[Major AF growth has been in SEQ & Cairns district- elsewhere, AF has a minor presence].
The NRL will announce plans for a new team in Brisbane in the coming months and not only is the senior men's competition expanding.
The NRLW is set to grow to seven teams this season, with the Titans becoming the second team in South-East Queensland.

In response to V'Landys' talk about invasion, chief executive of the Brisbane Lions AFLW team, Breaanna Brock, is steadfast.
"What can I say? AFL's the Indigenous game of Australia right.
"We invented the game here. It's native to Australia. It should be everywhere in Australia."
The Lions are reigning AFLW champions, with a team made of mostly Queenslanders.

Breeanna Brock with Emma Zielke after the 2021 AFLW Grand Final.

"My previous role to this was working for AFL up in Queensland and my role was to grow the game for women and girls," Brock says.
"When I started in 2013 we were starting at around 40 to 50,000 participants, well that's up to 120,000 now. [Fluff nos.- female AF club & school comp. nos. are much lower. All codes publish one-off Gala Days, community events etc. But female GR AF very strong in Qld.]"

Eugenie Buckley from sports consultancy Suiko knows Queensland well. She has worked in cricket and rugby and been chair of Netball Queensland.
She was also CEO of A-League club Brisbane Roar during the club's most successful period.
"It is a code war because there's only so much talent in Australia," she says.

Sports consultant Eugenie Buckley says women's competitions are driving corporate investment.
She believes the talent pool of female athletes is currently being squeezed by the sporting bodies tapping into changing investment dynamics.
"The corporates are finding it harder and harder to justify investing into just single sex sports, investing in sports that just have male arms," she says.
The W-League started in 2008 and netball is a major competitor with an established elite competition, but neither has secured the success of AFLW, which Buckley describes as "probably a game changer".

But she's concerned the growth of the AFLW — four more teams will join by 2023 — may do more harm the good.
"Hats off to them to having such an ambitious goal, but I have concerns whether they have the underlying pathways ready for that," she says.
"When the AFLW started there were a few criticisms over the quality of the product and the number of injuries ... so if you keep adding too quickly, it could come unstuck."

Dr Fujak's research shows why junior participation is so important to those in charge of the codes.
Put simply, playing sport as a junior — for example the AFL's Auskick program for primary school age children — leads to more consumption as an adult.
"If we use Auskick for the AFL as an example, a child who has not had exposure to Auskick as a child, on average watches 3.7 games of AFL in a season. A child who has played Auskick goes onto watch 8.5 games."

The AFL is certainly best placed to spend. Right now no sporting body brings in as much money each year (Emphases, & words in brackets, mine).

Expansion, private equity and female investment the new frontiers in footy code war

Some believe the contest between Australia's football codes is a matter of life and death. Others argue it's even more important.

www.abc.net.au

(Article has more info.)

Here is an interview with Hunter Fujak about his book - by none other than George Donikian

 

[MSB ROYS]

If three premierships on the trot did not cement AFL in Qld then nothing will........ AFL will be back page until the Broncos start playing well again the it will just be a footnote next to the obituaries in the local rags.

News Limited has a significant amount of shares in the Broncos and run the only two papers easily available in Brisbane (Courier Mail and The Australian), so it's not in their best interest to pump up the Lions continually over the Broncos.

 

[Established1870]

When the NRL were openly discussing culling Sydney based clubs a few years back, some of the talking heads were saying that the NRL are too short sighted while the AFL would have been looking at GC/GWS back in the 90's and formulating plans to make them work which is true considering GC (through Southport Sharks) was mentioned as a future expansion area for the AFL when Freo/Port came in and a second Sydney side was mentioned repeatedly at the same time too.

AFL administrators aren't perfect by any stretch but compared to NRL/RU/FFA head honchos they're miles ahead of them in long term planning and basic foresight. The AFL wanted two long term expansion clubs based in rapidly growing parts of the country where footy was seen as an afterthought and for the most part those clubs have worked beautifully in growing the game long term in QLD, NSW and Canberra.

Meanwhile the NRL is still debating whether or not Brisbane 2/NZ 2/Perth should happen and whether or not they can afford them. Hell the A-League still doesn't have a Canberra team and passed over Wollongong Wolves/South Melbourne in favour of two new entities in Macarthur and Western United who's only "key metric" was being able to dump more cash on A-League HQ's front yard.

 

[AFLQLD]

As much as it aggrieves many people, the AFL’s masterstroke is actually its willingness to invest in Queensland and NSW for the long term. It costs a lot but is going to pay off down the track. People are used to organisations thinking only a couple of years ahead. The AFL, an organisation not usually renowned for its foresight, in this instance, thought a generation ahead. AFL leaves Rugby League for dead in this regard.

Every cent of Auskick investment in Qld and NSW is worth it - those kids adopt AFL as their sport at a young age, their parents get involved, meet other AFL parents, they follow AFL teams and get locked in for life as AFL people. Twenty years later, it is natural for the next generation to become AFL people.

It isn’t fancy marketing that works but slow steady grassroots development of the support structures over years to make it easy for kids to learn the game, play the game and follow the game.

 

[RUNVS]

As much as it aggrieves many people, the AFL’s masterstroke is actually its willingness to invest in Queensland and NSW for the long term. It costs a lot but is going to pay off down the track. People are used to organisations thinking only a couple of years ahead. The AFL, an organisation not usually renowned for its foresight, in this instance, thought a generation ahead. AFL leaves Rugby League for dead in this regard.

Every cent of Auskick investment in Qld and NSW is worth it - those kids adopt AFL as their sport at a young age, their parents get involved, meet other AFL parents, they follow AFL teams and get locked in for life as AFL people. Twenty years later, it is natural for the next generation to become AFL people.

It isn’t fancy marketing that works but slow steady grassroots development of the support structures over years to make it easy for kids to learn the game, play the game and follow the game.

Yes, it really is a 25 year project. Apparently the Australian football participation numbers are getting noticably higher in Queensland which is what matters most to the AFL.

 

[Gigantor]

When the NRL were openly discussing culling Sydney based clubs a few years back, some of the talking heads were saying that the NRL are too short sighted while the AFL would have been looking at GC/GWS back in the 90's and formulating plans to make them work which is true considering GC (through Southport Sharks) was mentioned as a future expansion area for the AFL when Freo/Port came in and a second Sydney side was mentioned repeatedly at the same time too.

AFL administrators aren't perfect by any stretch but compared to NRL/RU/FFA head honchos they're miles ahead of them in long term planning and basic foresight. The AFL wanted two long term expansion clubs based in rapidly growing parts of the country where footy was seen as an afterthought and for the most part those clubs have worked beautifully in growing the game long term in QLD, NSW and Canberra.

Meanwhile the NRL is still debating whether or not Brisbane 2/NZ 2/Perth should happen and whether or not they can afford them. Hell the A-League still doesn't have a Canberra team and passed over Wollongong Wolves/South Melbourne in favour of two new entities in Macarthur and Western United who's only "key metric" was being able to dump more cash on A-League HQ's front yard.

This difference in long term planning is quite stark, especially when you consider that as we sit here, 12 NRL clubs are trying to sabotage the establishment of a 2nd club in the world's 2nd biggest RL city - it would be a bit like us debating whether we should bring Freo into the comp in 2022.

And while the old VFL administration was not perfect by any means, it made that far-reaching decision some 70 years ago to build its own stadium, with its own money while taking on some debt.

The decision 70 years ago led to the AFL owning docklands, which will set it up for the next 70 years.

In the meantime, with the other codes, they consider a 7 year horizon to be extremely long term planning, in fact, in the case of the NRL, they're lucky to look past a couple of years.

Both the NRL and A-League are in a position to mimic what the VFL did 70 years ago, but does such a question ever even make it onto the agenda?
No, it's all about hoping someone else will do it all for them.

 

[Bjo187]

I think we are forgetting one thing though, for all the great management by the AFL etc. Australian football is just a more entertaining and appealing game. Therefore, it has a big advantage over the others.