Prediction Changes v Hawks - Rd 22, 2021

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Bevo a tad cranky in the presser? Anyone else get those vibes? Or a little down perhaps? Short answers and then finished by wishing the journos well.
 
Golden_6 said:
No I’d say Young is replacing Bruce. Hannan is replacing JUH given he doesn’t really play like a tall at this stage in his career.
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Young is replacing Schache down back IMO.

We've shown an inclination to have 3 talls down back all season long. I think Bev would rather stick to this structure than the 3 headed monster up forward.

Keath/Young/Cordy down back.
50/50 on whether it'll be Young or Hannan as the chop out 2nd ruck.

Good to bring VDM in to a forward line with one legit tall, he's suited to that setup.

My guess is that if Hannan and VDM weren't available, Bev might have gone tall with Sweet in but would prefer a zippy forward line than have Sweet lumber around not doing much.
 
Oliver Gigacz said:
Young has been pretty handy in the ruck, since 2017 he's ranked 3rd at the club for hitout win percentage and has an excellent hitout to advantage rate.

Western Bulldogs - Hitout Table (2017-2021) (50 ruck contest minimum)
View attachment 1204091
Click to expand...
Not knocking what he has done but 70 is a small sample size compared to some others in the thousands. Dunkley has attended four times as many hitouts.

I reckon English's numbers drop after a while due to fatigue having to go from one contest to another throughout a game and throughout a season. We have seen games where this has been particularly evident, especially as the game wears on. Young could well be affected the same way if he was asked to shoulder a similar workload.

Shame about Roughead, Boyd and Trengove. Maybe even Campbell too, but he struggles for game time at North (behind Goldstein admittedly).
 
dogwatch said:
Not knocking what he has done but 70 is a small sample size compared to some others in the thousands. Dunkley has attended four times as many hitouts.

I reckon English's numbers drop after a while due to fatigue having to go from one contest to another throughout a game and throughout a season. We have seen games where this has been particularly evident, especially as the game wears on. Young could well be affected the same way if he was asked to shoulder a similar workload.

Shame about Roughead, Boyd and Trengove. Maybe even Campbell too, but he struggles for game time at North (behind Goldstein admittedly).
Click to expand...

It is a small sample but Dunkley has played 50 more matches in the same time period (2017-2021) and they each average 4 contests per match...

2017-2021
Screen Shot 2021-08-12 at 11.59.46 pm.png

However 57 of Young's 70 ruck contests have been in 2021 and if you take just this year he's averaging 11 contests per match and has a win percentage approaching 50%.

2021
screen-shot-2021-08-13-at-12-07-26-am-png.1204218


Before looking at the numbers I also thought that English's numbers would start to fall off in the second half of matches but he's seemingly consistent with a first half hitout win percentage of 34% and 35% in the second half across the season but there are matches where we have seen him fall off a cliff in the second half. It's also not just about getting the hitout it's what the midfield does with the hitout and how we defend when we lose the hitout and clearance.
 

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Thanks OG. Informative as always. The second picture (table?) didn't display for me despite refreshing. Has it loaded correctly?
 
BEaston said:
Young is replacing Schache down back IMO.

We've shown an inclination to have 3 talls down back all season long. I think Bev would rather stick to this structure than the 3 headed monster up forward.

Keath/Young/Cordy down back.
50/50 on whether it'll be Young or Hannan as the chop out 2nd ruck.

Good to bring VDM in to a forward line with one legit tall, he's suited to that setup.

My guess is that if Hannan and VDM weren't available, Bev might have gone tall with Sweet in but would prefer a zippy forward line than have Sweet lumber around not doing much.
Click to expand...
I agree that Bev has wanted to play 3 KPDs this year but I think now with Woody back he’ll just play him and Williams as undersized 3rd talls if needed.
 
Golden_6 said:
I agree that Bev has wanted to play 3 KPDs this year but I think now with Woody back he’ll just play him and Williams as undersized 3rd talls if needed.
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Williams is pretty good one-on-one, and Dale has stepped in to take that rebounding role that Williams was playing last year, so it's not the worst thing to have him play taller when required. For 2022, I wouldn't mind seeing Keath, a decent 2nd KPD, then Williams as the "3rd tall". Given our gameplan, it's not the worst thing to go without the 3rd tall in favour of someone with some sort of pace/evasiveness and kicking ability
 
Virgin Dog said:
Williams is pretty good one-on-one, and Dale has stepped in to take that rebounding role that Williams was playing last year, so it's not the worst thing to have him play taller when required. For 2022, I wouldn't mind seeing Keath, a decent 2nd KPD, then Williams as the "3rd tall". Given our gameplan, it's not the worst thing to go without the 3rd tall in favour of someone with some sort of pace/evasiveness and kicking ability
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Given we're already pushing Richards out of defence, I agree we shouldn't be pushing out another rebounder to fit in a Cordy or Gardner for the sake of it. We trialled 3 KPD against the Cats but Wood wasn't playing at that stage. I think a Keath, Gardner, Wood, Williams, Dale, Daniel & Duryea is pretty settled and what we'll see that week one of the finals. If Lewy Young gets a spot on the bench as utility/back-up ruck we can always send him back during a game if we need it.

If you look at the best sides, there isn't a whole heap to be concerned about in terms of 3 tall forwards.

Cats - Ratugolea
Demons - Jackson
Port - Georgiades
Lions - No third tall
Swans - No third tall
 
Oliver Gigacz said:
Young has been pretty handy in the ruck, since 2017 he's ranked 3rd at the club for hitout win percentage and has an excellent hitout to advantage rate.

Western Bulldogs - Hitout Table (2017-2021) (50 ruck contest minimum)
View attachment 1204091
Click to expand...
With Stef's fitness not looking great and Bruce out, I'm definitely more inclined to put Timmy up fwd to maintain structure and run Lewy for the next 2 games in the ruck and backup KPD. Lewy has shown that he can be a serviceable utility.
With all the recent injuries it would be short-sighted of Bevo's if we didn't look at all possibilities.
Leave no stone unturned for a quest at a premmie.
 
Oliver Gigacz said:
Young has been pretty handy in the ruck, since 2017 he's ranked 3rd at the club for hitout win percentage and has an excellent hitout to advantage rate.

Western Bulldogs - Hitout Table (2017-2021) (50 ruck contest minimum)
View attachment 1204091
Click to expand...
Young has done ok but raw stats don't factor in opponent. Young has been chop out Ruck and done ok against a Xerri or Amartey (opposition chop out), but that doesn't mean he's a better Ruck than a Sweet or Martin, who battle the Gawns and Nicnats of the comp, as the table suggests
 
Golden_6 said:
Given we're already pushing Richards out of defence, I agree we shouldn't be pushing out another rebounder to fit in a Cordy or Gardner for the sake of it. We trialled 3 KPD against the Cats but Wood wasn't playing at that stage. I think a Keath, Gardner, Wood, Williams, Dale, Daniel & Duryea is pretty settled and what we'll see that week one of the finals. If Lewy Young gets a spot on the bench as utility/back-up ruck we can always send him back during a game if we need it.

If you look at the best sides, there isn't a whole heap to be concerned about in terms of 3 tall forwards.

Cats - Ratugolea
Demons - Jackson
Port - Georgiades
Lions - No third tall
Swans - No third tall
Click to expand...
Cats, Hawkins, Jezza, Rohan, Rat
Dees, Brown, McDonald, Jackson + Fritsch
Port, Dixon, Marshall, Georgiades
Lions, Daniher, McStay, Fullaton or Fullarton not sure how to spell it.
Swans, Buddy, Reid and they run with Heeney who plays like one but also McDonald + McLean could also play. One of the smaller fwd 50s really.
 
Golden_6 said:
I agree that Bev has wanted to play 3 KPDs this year but I think now with Woody back he’ll just play him and Williams as undersized 3rd talls if needed.
Click to expand...
I think that's only possible if Young plays as primary ruck. Bev gave up on Young playing significant minutes forward pretty quickly earlier in the year.
The two main options seem to me:
A - Young ruck, English forward, 2KPD
B - English ruck, undersized forward line, 3KPD

B just looks way more likely IMO. I guess there's the possibility of throwing Cordy or Young forward and keep Tim as primary ruck... I don't think it would happen, but it is Bevo so you never know what he might try.

Will be an interesting game though, thats for sure.
 
Bevo really doesn't rate having a pure ruck does he. Sweat best chance ever to get a game and is over looked. I'm not even sure Bevo will play Martin even if available. To be honest I don't think Martin preformed much better than Sweat has. Oh course stronger body, experience you would prefer Martin for finals yet I though both were reasonable in their games this year. Both performed o.k but helped with structure.

I think we are going small come finals. Going to be an interesting last few weeks. At least he keeps them all guessing that maybe they'll get a game.
 
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