Draft Watcher Smythe's 2021 Draft Thread - Full Phantom with pick swaps post #295

[Smythe]

Hasnt ward said he doesn’t want to leave vic? No way freo would take that risk

Yes he has said that he would rather stay close to home before, and i think i mentioned that earlier in the year in a mock after he said it, but i don't know how serious that train of thought is. So therefore, im not going to consider it in a mock draft unless i hear more about it from him, which there are no whispers around suggesting that he has stuck fat with that train of thought or even stood firm on no interstate team drafting him.

 

[Smythe]

where are you getting this?

He mentioned it earlier in the year, possibly due to the past 2 years of covid stuff, that he would prefer to stay close to home

 

[briztoon]

Last Mock With No Pick Swaps
*will be updated if picks are swapped before draft

1 - North - Jason Horne-Francis
2 - Coll - Nick Daicos - Bid Matched
3 - Gws - Finn Callaghan
4 - Gc - Josh Gibcus
5 - Adel - Josh Rachele
6 - Haw - Niel Erasmus
7 - Wb - Sam Darcy - Bid Matched
8 - Freo - Mac Andrew
9 - Rich - Ben Hobbs
10 - Freo - Josh Ward
11 - Stk - Arlo Draper
12 - Wce - Josh Goater
13 - Ess - Josh Sinn
14 - Port - Sammy Butler
15 - Gws - Jye Amiss
16 - Bris - Jacob Van Rooyen
17 - Rich - Matt Johnson
18 - Syd - Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
19 - Melb - Tyler Sonsie
20 - Bris - Darcy Wilmot

Nothing personal, but I’m going to dislike any mock draft that has us selecting Van Rooyen at either of our first two picks.

At 16 I would have preferred any of the 3 players taken directly after, as well as Chesser.

 

[Smythe]

Nothing personal, but I’m going to dislike any mock draft that has us selecting Van Rooyen at either of our first two picks.

At 16 I would have preferred any of the 3 players taken directly after, as well as Chesser.

no offence taken, I know you don’t get personal.
He could have been at your second but I thought you would grab him before others had the chance as I rate him above Bazzo, which would leave you still with a very good choice of players to select at your second. But, this is only a plain mock with no pick swapping too.
I definitely rate Chesser but I am seeing him drop early second round unless he shows good form today.
You definitely are hard to please, earlier in the year you wanted to throw your tv when I had you selecting Wilmot, then during the year you agreed that you would look to replace gardiner and was happy with me selecting JVR for you now this .
Did I have you taking Sinn and chesser in a draft somewhere once…I can’t remember. Rankings change with more vision and education about the draftees and thoughts change too, so I’m guessing you now would rather mids/wingers or half backers with your first two picks then a remaining KPP with your third, does that sound about right?
Actually, which players would you draft to brisbane if they are available?

 

[briztoon]

no offence taken, I know you don’t get personal.
He could have been at your second but I thought you would grab him before others had the chance as I rate him above Bazzo, which would leave you still with a very good choice of players to select at your second. But, this is only a plain mock with no pick swapping too.
I definitely rate Chesser but I am seeing him drop early second round unless he shows good form today.
You definitely are hard to please, earlier in the year you wanted to throw your tv when I had you selecting Wilmot, then during the year you agreed that you would look to replace gardiner and was happy with me selecting JVR for you now this .
Did I have you taking Sinn and chesser in a draft somewhere once…I can’t remember. Rankings change with more vision and education about the draftees and thoughts change too, so I’m guessing you now would rather mids/wingers or half backers with your first two picks then a remaining KPP with your third, does that sound about right?
Actually, which players would you draft to brisbane if they are available?

lol, it’s balancing what I think the club might do, Wilmot and JVR, and what I’d personally like (not JVR).

 

[theGav56]

I have seen some phantoms suggesting Motlop at our third pick, and also suggestions we may take Williams. Pretty unlikely in my opinion. Neither seem "best available" at that pick, although I understand the thinking that neither will be available at our distant fourth pick, although I think there is some kind of possibility Motlop is bid on after 30.

Any thoughts on Fremantle's pick 19(21) and which players may be available, and if any clubs would look to trade for it? What trade would work for both parties.

 

[Swiggy]

I have seen some phantoms suggesting Motlop at our third pick, and also suggestions we may take Williams. Pretty unlikely in my opinion. Neither seem "best available" at that pick, although I understand the thinking that neither will be available at our distant fourth pick, although I think there is some kind of possibility Motlop is bid on after 30.

Any thoughts on Fremantle's pick 19(21) and which players may be available, and if any clubs would look to trade for it? What trade would work for both parties.

most think Freo would be targeting Williams or Motlop with that pick but think freo will trade back to get them & something else in… maybe in the mock drafts they just don’t want to guess who the trade is with but think that’s who they’ll take???

 

[blueiris]

no offence taken, I know you don’t get personal.
He could have been at your second but I thought you would grab him before others had the chance as I rate him above Bazzo, which would leave you still with a very good choice of players to select at your second. But, this is only a plain mock with no pick swapping too.
I definitely rate Chesser but I am seeing him drop early second round unless he shows good form today.
You definitely are hard to please, earlier in the year you wanted to throw your tv when I had you selecting Wilmot, then during the year you agreed that you would look to replace gardiner and was happy with me selecting JVR for you now this .
Did I have you taking Sinn and chesser in a draft somewhere once…I can’t remember. Rankings change with more vision and education about the draftees and thoughts change too, so I’m guessing you now would rather mids/wingers or half backers with your first two picks then a remaining KPP with your third, does that sound about right?
Actually, which players would you draft to brisbane if they are available?

Wilmot and JVR are chances at our picks personally but I’d prefer to go down the Chesser and Howes route I’d feel it gives Us great depth in positions of need

 

[theGav56]

most think Freo would be targeting Williams or Motlop with that pick but think freo will trade back to get them & something else in… maybe in the mock drafts they just don’t want to guess who the trade is with but think that’s who they’ll take???

I don't know about "most" but some do see it as a possible outcome. If Draper or JVR or Knevitt or Chesser were available that could easily change.

 

[Smythe]

I have seen some phantoms suggesting Motlop at our third pick, and also suggestions we may take Williams. Pretty unlikely in my opinion. Neither seem "best available" at that pick, although I understand the thinking that neither will be available at our distant fourth pick, although I think there is some kind of possibility Motlop is bid on after 30.

Any thoughts on Fremantle's pick 19(21) and which players may be available, and if any clubs would look to trade for it? What trade would work for both parties.

It is a possibility that he gets bid on after 30, as teams who dont have later picks go for players they want with those early picks however there are not too many small fwds worthy of ND this year so getting him past 30 maybe a stretch.
Thoughts on pick 19*(21), freo shouldn't and most likely will not use it, what should they get, you are likely to get offered a late future first round for it or an early second round this year with a future second as well, but who that will be with is anybody's guess.
I cannot see teams like richmond or geelong (with multiple second round picks) who will use there picks this year, offering them up unless someone special is sitting on the board still, and if so, they are your best options at staying in the second round and maximising the pick for this year, and so many futures have already been passed on from one team to another it is hard to find a replacement bid for you.
Port giving up a future first is a possibility but it wont get you back into this draft unless you then on trade that for someone with early second round futures??? Gold coast comes to mind, they have plenty and may want to upgrade them to a future first, then you would have picks to play with to get back into the draft this year.
However, it will be the same as the Dev Robertson year, when it is time for freo to be on the clock, that is when deals will come flooding through the phone.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Last Mock With No Pick Swaps
*will be updated if picks are swapped before draft

1 - North - Jason Horne-Francis
2 - Coll - Nick Daicos - Bid Matched
3 - Gws - Finn Callaghan
4 - Gc - Josh Gibcus
5 - Adel - Josh Rachele
6 - Haw - Niel Erasmus
7 - Wb - Sam Darcy - Bid Matched
8 - Freo - Mac Andrew
9 - Rich - Ben Hobbs
10 - Freo - Josh Ward
11 - Stk - Arlo Draper
12 - Wce - Josh Goater
13 - Ess - Josh Sinn
14 - Port - Sammy Butler
15 - Gws - Jye Amiss
16 - Bris - Jacob Van Rooyen
17 - Rich - Matt Johnson
18 - Syd - Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
19 - Melb - Tyler Sonsie
20 - Bris - Darcy Wilmot

The club will be laughing if a Darcy bid come at 7

 

[Smythe]

The club will be laughing if a Darcy bid come at 7

Agreed, and this is just if no pick swaps by the way, my thoughts are a bid comes before the team who take Mac Andrew

 

[weltschmerz]

Jye Amiss - Freo take Amiss here to make sure Rich dont - What exactly does that mean? It doesn't make any sense in my opinion.

Freo take Amiss at 8, rather than at 10, because otherwise Richmond would take him at 9.

 

[Smythe]

Freo take Amiss at 8, rather than at 10, because otherwise Richmond would take him at 9.

yeah, i thought that was self explanatory

 

[SumTingWong]

Last Mock With No Pick Swaps
*will be updated if picks are swapped before draft

1 - North - Jason Horne-Francis
2 - Coll - Nick Daicos - Bid Matched
3 - Gws - Finn Callaghan
4 - Gc - Josh Gibcus
5 - Adel - Josh Rachele
6 - Haw - Niel Erasmus
7 - Wb - Sam Darcy - Bid Matched
8 - Freo - Mac Andrew
9 - Rich - Ben Hobbs
10 - Freo - Josh Ward
11 - Stk - Arlo Draper
12 - Wce - Josh Goater
13 - Ess - Josh Sinn
14 - Port - Sammy Butler
15 - Gws - Jye Amiss
16 - Bris - Jacob Van Rooyen
17 - Rich - Matt Johnson
18 - Syd - Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
19 - Melb - Tyler Sonsie
20 - Bris - Darcy Wilmot

Cal Twomey has said we haven't spoken to Hobbs in 6 months.

 

[Smythe]

Cal Twomey has said we haven't spoken to Hobbs in 6 months.

and......
I wouldn't read too much into it, clubs do their due diligence on all prospects they believe will be near the mark come pick time, and some clubs have made their mind up already on a few. They watch them for close to four years before the draft for some prospects so they know pretty much all they have to.
Clubs also steer clear of "telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth" come draft time too.
If it is the case however, still does not mean anything much really, they either really like him, have done enough due diligence and believe they will get him, or they know they may have to move up to get him and that is what they are focusing on trying to do if he is worth it, or they know they wont be able to get him and have their eye on someone else.
But also understand, that was a mock with no pick swaps involved, it isn't going to happen this way as we all know. It was just who i thought would take who at those picks with the thought of who was available at the next pick etc.

 

[briztoon]

Cal Twomey has said we haven't spoken to Hobbs in 6 months.

Doesn’t mean much. We generally only talk to our draftees once. And we talk to every draftee once.

 

[raffrox]

Cal Twomey has said we haven't spoken to Hobbs in 6 months.

Cal also said that North hadn't spoken to Will Phillips 6 months prior before drafting him either.

 

[Smythe]

Lets talk about the upcoming drafts,
I was going to post this last week but thought i would wait until this week to post just to keep the content going up until the draft and not leave a blank week.
However Cal Twomey stole some of my thunder in regards to the draft numbers etc.

It will see clubs permitted to have a minimum of 37 players and a maximum of 44 players on their books.
Primary lists must have between 36 and 38 players. Category A rookies are capped at 4-6, up to a total of 42 players on a list including primary-listed players. Each club can also have two Category B rookies. *AFL website

*Please note, these numbers may not be exact but are close

List sizes are to be a maximum of 44, that makes it 792 players
Currently there are 685 players on lists
That leaves 107 free spots
of that 107 there are 65 free senior spots if every team takes the minimum 36 senior list spots
of that 65, 3 have been promised to be relisted, 7 have been promised to be upgraded
That leaves 55 free senior spots
107-55= 52 rookie spots
of the 52 rookie spots, if every club leaves 1 spot open for SSP, Mid season draft etc (not every club will, but for arguments sake lets say they do)
that then leaves 34 spots open for the rookie draft
14 players have been promised to be re-rookied
which leaves only 20 spots open

So in the national draft there should be around 52 taken *to get to minimum numbers (my guess would be 63)
In the rookie draft we are looking at around 20 spots *minimum

All in all, there should be 72 players drafted in the ND and rookie draft combined and that would be the minimum, but it may not be much more than that.

 

[briztoon]

Lets talk about the upcoming drafts,
I was going to post this last week but thought i would wait until this week to post just to keep the content going up until the draft and not leave a blank week.
However Cal Twomey stole some of my thunder in regards to the draft numbers etc.

It will see clubs permitted to have a minimum of 37 players and a maximum of 44 players on their books.
Primary lists must have between 36 and 38 players. Category A rookies are capped at 4-6, up to a total of 42 players on a list including primary-listed players. Each club can also have two Category B rookies. *AFL website

*Please note, these numbers may not be exact but are close

List sizes are to be a maximum of 44, that makes it 792 players
Currently there are 685 players on lists
That leaves 107 free spots
of that 107 there are 65 free senior spots if every team takes the minimum 36 senior list spots
of that 65, 3 have been promised to be relisted, 7 have been promised to be upgraded
That leaves 55 free senior spots
107-55= 52 rookie spots
of the 52 rookie spots, if every club leaves 1 spot open for SSP, Mid season draft etc (not every club will, but for arguments sake lets say they do)
that then leaves 34 spots open for the rookie draft
14 players have been promised to be re-rookied
which leaves only 20 spots open

So in the national draft there should be around 52 taken *to get to minimum numbers
In the rookie draft we are looking at around 20 spots *minimum

All in all, there should be 72 players drafted in the ND and rookie draft combined and that would be the minimum, but it may not be much more than that.

Brisbane are committed to taking 3 senior list spots to the National Draft, and rookie listing delisted duo, Cam Ellis-Yolman and Ely Smith.

That’s our list full.


Maybe we can get a poster from each team to give a run down what their team will do at the draft.

Mutineer for Adelaide.
Jen2310 for Collingwood.

 

[weltschmerz]

Two or three picks. With Wood's retirement I think we have five list spots and I expect we'll take a rookie and take one list spot to the SSP.

 

[Smythe]

In my previous post, i mentioned the mark of 72 players minimum, but not much more than that, being drafted.

So i have got, in no particular order, a couple of lists.

45 most draft-able

Jason Horne-Francis
Mac Andrew
Nick Daicos
Rhett Bazzo
Finn Callaghan
Campbell Chesser
Toby Conway
Jace Burgoyne
Niel Erasmus
Sam Darcy
Josh Gibcus
Ben Hobbs
Blake Howes
Matt Johnson
Cooper Murley
Josh Rachele
Josh Sinn
Tyler Sonsie
Matt Roberts
Jacob Van Rooyen
Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
Leek Alleeer
Arlo Draper
Mitch Knevitt
Cooper MacDonald
Kai Lohmann
Josh Fahey
Josh Goater
Mitch Owens
Lachlan Rankin
Zac Taylor
Josh Ward
Darcy Wilmot
Jye Amiss
Jesse Motlop
Angus Sheldrick
Corey Warner
Judson Clarke
Sammy Butler
Tom Brown

50 OF THE BEST OF THE REST
List of the group fighting it out for the last few spots in the National draft and the Rookie spots

Marcus Windhager (have him here mainly due to his recent injury but should be bid on and go in ND)
Brady Hough (i have him ranked higher but could slide a bit on the night depending on clubs positional needs)
Sam Banks (have him here on injury alone, may be towards end of ND draft)
Ned Long (could go higher)
Taj Woewodin (will most likely have to be Melbournes last ND pick)
Lewis Rayson
Paul Curtis
Hugh Stagg
Charlie Dean
Kade Dittmar
Morgan Ferres
Lochlan Paton
Hugh Jackson
Karl Worner
Oscar Adams
Jamieson Ballantyne
Cooper Beecken
Isaac Birt
Charlie Molan
Anthony Caminiti
Miller Bergman
Andy Moniz-Wakefield
Ronald Fejo Jnr
Jai Serong
Jake Soligo
James Tunstill
Jahmal Stretch
Cooper Hamilton
Toby Murray
Josh Browne
Youseff Dib
Josh Cripps
Justin Davies

Justin Davies

Age

40

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.4

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.2

2star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

4.0

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

Jordan Lukac
Isaiah Dudley
Alistair Lord
Luca Whitelum
Harvey Harrison
Kaden Harbour
Ben DeBolfo
Tyreece Leiu
Jack Maibaum
Blake Schlensog
Bailey Rogers
Mitch Cox
Eamon Wilkinson
Matt Hammelmann
Noah Pegoraro
Casey Voss
Vincent Adduci

Then of course those that should be taken late in draft, with bid matches or rookied
Eric Benning
Ethan Regan
Jackson Archer

And Gold Coast have already pre-listed
Bodhi Uwland
Sandy Brock

 

[weltschmerz]

In my previous post, i mentioned the mark of 72 players minimum, but not much more than that, being drafted.

So i have got, in no particular order, a couple of lists.

45 most draft-able

Jason Horne-Francis
Mac Andrew
Nick Daicos
Rhett Bazzo
Finn Callaghan
Campbell Chesser
Toby Conway
Jace Burgoyne
Niel Erasmus
Sam Darcy
Josh Gibcus
Ben Hobbs
Blake Howes
Matt Johnson
Cooper Murley
Josh Rachele
Josh Sinn
Tyler Sonsie
Matt Roberts
Jacob Van Rooyen
Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
Leek Alleeer
Arlo Draper
Mitch Knevitt
Cooper MacDonald
Kai Lohmann
Josh Fahey
Josh Goater
Mitch Owens
Lachlan Rankin
Zac Taylor
Josh Ward
Darcy Wilmot
Jye Amiss
Jesse Motlop
Angus Sheldrick
Corey Warner
Judson Clarke
Sammy Butler
Tom Brown

50 OF THE BEST OF THE REST
List of the group fighting it out for the last few spots in the National draft and the Rookie spots

Marcus Windhager (have him here mainly due to his recent injury but should be bid on and go in ND)
Brady Hough (i have him ranked higher but could slide a bit on the night depending on clubs positional needs)
Sam Banks (have him here on injury alone, may be towards end of ND draft)
Ned Long (could go higher)
Taj Woewodin (will be Melbournes last ND pick)
Lewis Rayson
Paul Curtis
Hugh Stagg
Charlie Dean
Kade Dittmar
Morgan Ferres
Lochlan Paton
Hugh Jackson
Karl Worner
Oscar Adams
Jamieson Ballantyne
Cooper Beecken
Isaac Birt
Charlie Molan
Anthony Caminiti
Miller Bergman
Andy Moniz-Wakefield
Ronald Fejo Jnr
Jai Serong
Jake Soligo
James Tunstill
Jahmal Stretch
Toby Murray
Josh Browne
Youseff Dib
Josh Cripps
Justin Davies
Jordan Lukac
Isaiah Dudley
Alistair Lord
Luca Whitelum
Harvey Harrison
Kaden Harbour
Ben DeBolfo
Tyreece Leiu
Jack Maibaum
Blake Schlensog
Bailey Rogers
Mitch Cox
Eamon Wilkinson
Matt Hammelmann
Noah Pegoraro
Casey Voss
Vincent Adduci

Then of course those that should be taken late in draft, with bid matches or rookied
Eric Benning
Ethan Regan

And Gold Coast have already pre-listed
Bodhi Uwland
Sandy Brock

Any thoughts on Dante Visentini?

 

[Smythe]

Any thoughts on Dante Visentini?

Good kid who has shown a little bit, but is it enough compared to others his size and in his position, probably not.
My personal opinion is that although he has the aggression and is very coachable, he lacks any production or consistency (not enough disposals or marks for a KPP and not enough hitouts as a ruck) and that he is destined to actually be a ruck prospect as his athleticism is nowhere near where it would need to be to be a KPP utility at the next level.
Can he turn himself into a Mummy style ruck?? Possibly
These big guys take time and it wouldn't surprise me to see clubs, with Dante, let him mature and develop in the lower leagues (VFL, SANFL, WAFL etc) until he becomes somewhat of a pluckable prospect using an SSP or mid year draft selection.
He strikes me as someone, that big, that we have not seen enough footy out of, and at that size, he will need to ply his craft at the other levels first and mature his body and hone his skills and athleticism in a ruck position before being draftable.
Similar to those Ruck prospects that get picked up as mature agers in the mid season drafts or SSP drafts as i mentioned earlier etc.

 

[Oldest Tiger]

Will the tigers rookie Elliot or sign on to VFL?