Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 7

[FredLeDeux]

I can confidently say, without even the slightest hint of doubt, that John Pesutto would never have acted as Planning Minister in the way Matthew Guy did. Guy was a law onto himself as Planning Minister.

A "law unto himself" is one way of putting it.

 

[Wooden Robot]

Not sure anyone on here or elsewhere is suggesting cancelling was not a good idea in the face of a costs blowout. It's how it got to that point that is the problem.

Applauding the decision to cancel is like applauding an arsonist for taking a hose to a house fire after he lit the match.

Or like labelling your COVID response as 'Gold Standard' while cooped up like a battery hen, while the rest of Australia gets to sunbake and go to work!

 

[Sttew]

Debacle Dan

 

[Wooden Robot]

Must feel for Harriet 'Ding-a-ling' Shing.
Imagine being asked to stand up the back in at least two press conferences, say nothing, but please nod your head like a puppet.
She must ask ... why am I here?
Or probably fearing she'll be the next Mikakos.

 

[Kwality]

Must feel for Harriet 'Ding-a-ling' Shing.
Imagine being asked to stand up the back in at least two press conferences, say nothing, but please nod your head like a puppet.
She must ask ... why am I here?
Or probably fearing she'll be the next Mikakos.

Ms Shing will be letting her electorate know the cost it will bear as a result of the decision/commentary that she has done the nodding dog routine to.
We are waiting.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Why throw good money after bad?
Ask the bloke who keeps doing it, Dan.
Why did he throw $15 million at a netball team?
Coincidently, the Visit Victoria/Victorian Government Diamonds won't be getting a home tournament.
But f*** the Creepy Assumer thought he looked good being the saviour again!

Man, I am not disagreeing with you. Dan f***ed it.

But why double down on his original mistake?

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Not sure anyone on here or elsewhere is suggesting cancelling was not a good idea in the face of a costs blowout. It's how it got to that point that is the problem.

Applauding the decision to cancel is like applauding an arsonist for taking a hose to a house fire after he lit the match.

Yeah, and to be clear I do not "applaud" the decision. I am happy with it but that is a different thing. All that he has done is right a wrong that should never have happened in the first place. At some cost too, no doubt.

 

[geoffjennings79]

I can confidently say, without even the slightest hint of doubt, that John Pesutto would never have acted as Planning Minister in the way Matthew Guy did. Guy was a law onto himself as Planning Minister.

Ok, but Guy was still a member of the govt, and I note you didn't say Pesutto wouldn't have knocked back the opportunity to host the games - and he did concede this morning if presented with a scenario where the cost was untenable he would have probably cancelled as well. Anyway, it's all supposition what he would or wouldn't have done, will be interesting where this goes in coming days/weeks.

 

[Kwality]

IBAC hits another hurdle:
Millionaire property developer John Woodman has launched an eleventh-hour legal bid to block next week’s release of IBAC’s Operation Sandon corruption report.

Even if the Court of Appeal finds against Mr Woodman, it is understood the developer, whom IBAC alleges made political donations and payments to Casey councillors in return for favourable planning decisions, could mount an action in the High Court to further delay the report.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/victorian-ibacs-operation-sandon-report-faces-new-delays/news-story/5c24ac55ee28e77dfa2daa501a40d9ae

Given the Coroners involvement in this case (the death of a witness), I wonder if IBAC itself might prefer this whole investigation 'went away' ?

 

[The Punter]

Ok, but Guy was still a member of the govt, and I note you didn't say Pesutto wouldn't have knocked back the opportunity to host the games - and he did concede this morning if presented with a scenario where the cost was untenable he would have probably cancelled as well. Anyway, it's all supposition what he would or wouldn't have done, will be interesting where this goes in coming days/weeks.

And that is all well and good, but we do know what Daniel Andrews did. Holding governments and oppositions to the same standards are problematic - governments have a much greater ability to effectively deal with mistakes because they hold the reins of power. Mistakes made by oppositions tend to be difficult to move on from because all an opposition can do is talk and propose things - only governments can implement things, and that includes solutions.

Nothing about that changes the fact it is useful for those who seek to downplay the events of this week to talk about the opposition instead.

 

[Wooden Robot]

IBAC hits another hurdle:
Millionaire property developer John Woodman has launched an eleventh-hour legal bid to block next week’s release of IBAC’s Operation Sandon corruption report.

Even if the Court of Appeal finds against Mr Woodman, it is understood the developer, whom IBAC alleges made political donations and payments to Casey councillors in return for favourable planning decisions, could mount an action in the High Court to further delay the report.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/victorian-ibacs-operation-sandon-report-faces-new-delays/news-story/5c24ac55ee28e77dfa2daa501a40d9ae

Given the Coroners involvement in this case (the death of a witness), I wonder if IBAC itself might prefer this whole investigation 'went away' ?

Only in Victoria.

 

[geoffjennings79]

And that is all well and good, but we do know what Daniel Andrews did. Holding governments and oppositions to the same standards are problematic - governments have a much greater ability to effectively deal with mistakes because they hold the reins of power. Mistakes made by oppositions tend to be difficult to move on from because all an opposition can do is talk and propose things - only governments can implement things, and that includes solutions.

Nothing about that changes the fact it is useful for those who seek to downplay the events of this week to talk about the opposition instead.

Oh I'm not trying to downplay it - as I've stated I have little trust these days of all sides of politics, even as a long-time amateur psephologist and student of politics.
Where you and I (respectfully I think?) disagree is on Pesutto, but you know him personally while I base my opinion on what is available in the public sphere. Either/both of us possibly have biases based on that.
Regardless, thanks for the replies, always happy to engage in a chat with you, even with our different political leanings.

 

[The Punter]

Oh I'm not trying to downplay it - as I've stated I have little trust these days of all sides of politics, even as a long-time amateur psephologist and student of politics.
Where you and I (respectfully I think?) disagree is on Pesutto, but you know him personally while I base my opinion on what is available in the public sphere. Either/both of us possibly have biases based on that.
Regardless, thanks for the replies, always happy to engage in a chat with you, even with our different political leanings.

Fair enough.

The gang stuff before 2018 is a fair cop. We were all guilty of playing up the crime angle, and some to lead people to some pretty questionable conclusions. It didn't work electorally clearly, but there was a clear feeling inside Liberal circles in the lead up to that election that crime was a problem and that it was going to be an issue for Andrews. That clearly wasn't the case.

While accepting John Pesutto is, by trade, an IR lawyer and his feelings on those issues would sit comfortably in conventional Liberal Party thinking in 2023, the IPA stuff is trying to associate the organisation he worked for in 2010 for a short period and the organisation it is now. I don't think JP is interested in much of the culture war stuff flying around now, and that has been clearly demonstrated through his actions in the first seven months of his leadership. At a guess, I think he would be at least somewhat disappointed with where the IPA has moved since he ceased working for them. So I think that label on him is somewhat unfair, but he worked for them and he can't deny that.

 

[jannissary]

i think everyone is forgetting the most important event that VICTORIA holds; the bendigo cup. worldchanging affair that

 

[Wooden Robot]

i think everyone is forgetting the most important event that VICTORIA holds; the bendigo cup. worldchanging affair that

Absolute travesty having no crowd there in 2020 and 2021.
Accompanied by the death of the locally-trained Super Girl in the race in 2020, it's been hard times for the local club.
It will rebound better than ever in 2023 (if grubby Andrews and Allan keep away from it and don't want to build a temporary diving pool at the 200m mark for two weeks).
Worth noting, the winner of the 2022 cup somehow finished third in the Melbourne Cup, so its 'on the map'.

 

[geoffjennings79]

i think everyone is forgetting the most important event that VICTORIA holds; the bendigo cup. worldchanging affair that

As a migrant to Ballarat area from Melbourne myself, I appreciate both Ballarat and Bendigo, but there seems to be some rivalry between the two - or is that an isolated thing?

 

[jannissary]

As a migrant to Ballarat area from Melbourne myself, I appreciate both Ballarat and Bendigo, but there seems to be some rivalry between the two - or is that an isolated thing?

nah it certainly existed, can't stand ballarat, it's full of rats!

jokes aside i think it'll generally come down to small town rivalries existing to standout from the hundreds of little towns (or moderately sized ones) to get more tourism

Absolute travesty having no crowd there in 2020 and 2021.
Accompanied by the death of the locally-trained Super Girl in the race in 2020, it's been hard times for the local club.
It will rebound better than ever in 2023 (if grubby Andrews and Allan keep away from it and don't want to build a temporary diving pool at the 200m mark for two weeks).
Worth noting, the winner of the 2022 cup somehow finished third in the Melbourne Cup, so its 'on the map'.

can't say i'm shocked, it was a big event for me (although last time i went i got covered in someones vomit, ruining a nice suit, such a shame) but it's about as interesting as most horse racing events.

 

[Seeds]

One report after the 2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games boasted the games created 21,128 full-time equivalent jobs over nine years. Given right now there are around 1.98m people employed full-time in Queensland, that is not a big boost.

The report also suggested the Games would increase Queensland’s economy by $2.5bn over those same nine years. That seems large until you realise that in 2018-19 the annual Queensland economy was $350.4bn.

Worse was that $1.4bn of these benefits was expected to come into the economy from 2018-19 until 2020-21.

I sure hope nothing happened to disrupt that prediction…

From

Good economics or a boondoggle? Too often it’s one rule for sport and another for everything else | Greg Jericho

We routinely ignore the cost of events such as the Commonwealth Games or Formula One because of mythical benefits while fixating on the price tag of good social policy

www.theguardian.com

And its almost certain the assumptions used have been fudged to the ninth degree to make the benefits as large as possible. Even though as you show, they arent even that large anyway.

Every economic study ive been involved in commissioned by either the government of the day or the opposition party have used dramatically loose assumptions that no one ever properly validates. The economic cost benefit analysis report industry is currently a sham with zero oversight. I had to leave the industry as I was finding this sort of work immoral and depressing.

 

[Wooden Robot]

As a migrant to Ballarat area from Melbourne myself, I appreciate both Ballarat and Bendigo, but there seems to be some rivalry between the two - or is that an isolated thing?

Ballarat claim to be our rivals and talk up the friction and conflict.
We don't rate Ballarat plain and simple and see them as a blip on the radar and irrelevant.
Bendigo is it!

 

[Festerz]

And its almost certain the assumptions used have been fudged to the ninth degree to make the benefits as large as possible. Even though as you show, they arent even that large anyway.

Every economic study ive been involved in commissioned by either the government of the day or the opposition party have used dramatically loose assumptions that no one ever properly validates. The economic cost benefit analysis report industry is currently a sham with zero oversight. I had to leave the industry as I was finding this sort of work immoral and depressing.

100% agree.

The flaws in input-output modelling and impact assessment (aka computable general equilibrium models) and their susceptibility to flawed assumptions is well known in the economics profession. See this paper for example.

And that some of these studies are undertaken by research units that are a formal part of, or closely associated with, major Australian universities is something that is deeply concerning. Seems none of them are at all troubled that their prestige and reputation is used to give credibility to a sham consultancy business that is the economic equivalent of reading tea leaves.

But ultimately the blame lies at the politicians and public servants who give strong credence to these models and use them as a solid basis for distributing public funding on a massive scale.

Of course if governments or any group of citizens wish to host international sporting events to promote civic pride or for other feel-good reasons, they may do so if the sacrifice of other services is considered acceptable. But they should not claim that the event provides economic benefits unless it passes both a rigorous assessment of the financial assumptions and a totally independent (vs proponent sponsored) comparative cost-benefit test.

And this NEVER happens. The rush to cut the ribbon or make an announcement is far too strong.

 

[Wooden Robot]

As a migrant to Ballarat area from Melbourne myself, I appreciate both Ballarat and Bendigo, but there seems to be some rivalry between the two - or is that an isolated thing?

There is a 'loose' sporting rivarly between the two, but it's not like we play each other much at all.
Interleague footy maybe once every five to 10 years and the occasional soccer and basketball match.

 

[The Punter]

As a migrant to Ballarat area from Melbourne myself, I appreciate both Ballarat and Bendigo, but there seems to be some rivalry between the two - or is that an isolated thing?

I am also a transplant from Melbourne to the Ballarat area, and I've never heard Bendigo discussed here in that way.

 

[kalex6251]

is the story running out of steam? .... 'the costello' is already starting to publish 'what if' stories (just saw a piece asking would andrews dare cancel the melbourne leg of the fifa womens world cup) .... its day 2/3 - we shall see

 

[The Punter]

is the story running out of steam? .... 'the costello' is already starting to publish 'what if' stories (just saw a piece asking would andrews dare cancel the melbourne leg of the fifa womens world cup) .... its day 2/3 - we shall see

Standard media practice would dictate unless there are "further revelations", the story as the mainstream Melbourne media will die off. It's Day 3. There's a reason there is a phrase "third day stories".

 

[geoffjennings79]

I am also a transplant from Melbourne to the Ballarat area, and I've never heard Bendigo discussed here in that way.

Like I said, it's isolated.

A bit like when I was dropping a child off for an early morning swimming squad training session in the dark after first moving here, child in their school sports uniform, only to have a random jogger run past and yell "should have gone to xxxx school"! I haven't bought into the (secondary) school rivalry myself, but the number of conversations where it seems to be a major issue or case of one-up-manship for people is certainly not isolated, initially bemusing, but now often quite pathetic if you ask me. Seems to be more of an issue for the born-and-bred locals though, so I just side-step the subject - much like politics - and discuss it anonymously on an online forum!