List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

The blokes a massive upgrade on what we have but wtf have we offered him??





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End of 2nd round is band 4 compo . 3 years times 350k would trigger it

 

[KERRPOW]

The blokes a massive upgrade on what we have but wtf have we offered him??





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Cant be that much if its an end of second round pick.

 

[Goroyals22]

Cant be that much if its an end of second round pick.

They are laughing their heads off on trade radio that the giants got as good as that


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[WCE_phil]

I've finished with the combine today and i'm tired and likely to be a bit short with people.

I have two primary roles.
1. Be a part of draft, player interviews and their families to sift through the cliche's and bullshit for the truth
2. Scout specific players and along with the above look out for reasons not to draft or trade for players

I report scouting notes to the list manager and report everything else and directly to the head of the football department. I am no master draft scout, however particularly since I have been doing this I have a pretty good record of the players suggested as part of my recommendations who have been drafted, performing at or above what is expected for that draft pick.

Generally I am good at picking talls and players to play specific roles. I can be overly critical of some players as opposed to the general love tank that is played out through highlight video's that bigfooty tends to go for.

Just from a club perspective you don't look at how club tied players lower a draft pick. The open pool is the open pool. If you rate a FS/NGA player highly enough you bid on them and hope to get them otherwise they aren't thought of as much. You still do full scouting on them. So for all the crap where people go well pick 19 isn't pick 19 it's going to be pick 25 is bullshit. You still have pick 19 of the open pool.

This draft's top end is relatively weak. I rate Walter as the top prospect and toss and turn between Reid & McKercher for 2 and 3. I don't particularly rate most of the mids in this draft pool and of what I considered the big 5 in regards to HFF players who could move into the midfield this year only one has come on as expected and it's been more as a forward than as a mid. This years draft however is quite deep particularly when it comes to tall stocks, forward/rucks and role players (small backs, small forwards, pressure forwards etc). I see a lot of value in those areas.

Next years draft is just as compromised as this one, has a higher top end at this stage, a lot more quality midfield prospects but doesn't run as deep imo. Next year however I will be managing my investments, drinking beer, sea kayaking and hiking in SE asia. I am done with the industry and will just be following as a mostly neutral observer who watches most WCE games.

Also no, I have not heard anything about WCE plans and don't expect to.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

They are laughing their heads off on trade radio that the giants got as good as that


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Why? Seems pretty normal in comparison to what ruckmen of similar quality normally get in trades.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Paddy cripps , degoey , petracca all needed years of training before they were fit enough for full time mids .

And I would argue Petracca and Degoey still can't handle full time in the middle which is why they spend so much time in the forward line.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Carbine Chaos]

This draft's top end is relatively weak.

So...just take Reid?

 

[Coasters7]

I’m still in the split pick camp, of all the highlights I’ve watched on many draftees I just don’t think Reids biggest attributes would work at AFL level, his kicking wasn’t elite either.

I’ve been more impressed by McKercher and Sanders if I’m being brutally honest, we lack a high possession getting mid that can run both ways.. I could be terribly off but gut feel along with history of number 1 picks amounting to not much has been hard to shake off.

I think this is where it’s at for me. I’m still in the draft Reid camp but if you could do a deal that got you McKercher, Sanders and someone like Murphy, you’d have to take it.

The players you get in return is more important than the number value of each pick. Say 2 or 3 plus 6 and 12? Reid looks like a potential superstar but if that gets you those 3 players (the two best pure mids in the draft plus the best genuine key back) then you take it and run.

Wont be happy if we trade it for 2 and some shit late firsts. It needs to be an upgrade on our current position and Curtin/McKercher plus some lottery late firsts ain’t it

 

[Wooshaaaa]

This is why I hate the vAFL media and they don't even try to hide their bias

Player leaving Victoria

Tyler brockman pick 42 national draft averaging 10 touches 3 marks 2 tackles 0.9 goals a game
View attachment 1823968

Player going to Victorian team

Liam Henry pick 9 national draft
Averaging 20 touches 5 marks 3 tackles
View attachment 1823973

Tag this post moderators. 100%

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[bzparkes]

Next year however I will be managing my investments, drinking beer, sea kayaking and hiking in SE asia. I am done with the industry and will just be following as a mostly neutral observer who watches most WCE games.

You said that last year...

 

[geelongrecruit5]

I've finished with the combine today and i'm tired and likely to be a bit short with people.

I have two primary roles.
1. Be a part of draft, player interviews and their families to sift through the cliche's and bullshit for the truth
2. Scout specific players and along with the above look out for reasons not to draft or trade for players

I report scouting notes to the list manager and report everything else and directly to the head of the football department. I am no master draft scout, however particularly since I have been doing this I have a pretty good record of the players suggested as part of my recommendations who have been drafted, performing at or above what is expected for that draft pick.

Generally I am good at picking talls and players to play specific roles. I can be overly critical of some players as opposed to the general love tank that is played out through highlight video's that bigfooty tends to go for.

Just from a club perspective you don't look at how club tied players lower a draft pick. The open pool is the open pool. If you rate a FS/NGA player highly enough you bid on them and hope to get them otherwise they aren't thought of as much. You still do full scouting on them. So for all the crap where people go well pick 19 isn't pick 19 it's going to be pick 25 is bullshit. You still have pick 19 of the open pool.

This draft's top end is relatively weak. I rate Walter as the top prospect and toss and turn between Reid & McKercher for 2 and 3. I don't particularly rate most of the mids in this draft pool and of what I considered the big 5 in regards to HFF players who could move into the midfield this year only one has come on as expected and it's been more as a forward than as a mid. This years draft however is quite deep particularly when it comes to tall stocks, forward/rucks and role players (small backs, small forwards, pressure forwards etc). I see a lot of value in those areas.

Next years draft is just as compromised as this one, has a higher top end at this stage, a lot more quality midfield prospects but doesn't run as deep imo. Next year however I will be managing my investments, drinking beer, sea kayaking and hiking in SE asia. I am done with the industry and will just be following as a mostly neutral observer who watches most WCE games.

Also no, I have not heard anything about WCE plans and don't expect to.

Well done Phil, where’s my man Logan Morris likely to land, just ensure you do your due diligence!

 

[Bender_]

Bit disappointed we didn't hear any thoughts on Ginbey's kicking honestly.

 

[element]

I've finished with the combine today and i'm tired and likely to be a bit short with people.

I have two primary roles.
1. Be a part of draft, player interviews and their families to sift through the cliche's and bullshit for the truth
2. Scout specific players and along with the above look out for reasons not to draft or trade for players

.....

Would it be worthwhile trading out one or two later picks this year to have a better hand in 2024, and have a stab at some more mids?

Any further insight from Day 1 of the combine into Reid/McKercher potential flight risk or are interviews in the latter days?

 

[Keys]

They are laughing their heads off on trade radio that the giants got as good as that


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Would that be the same trade radio clowns that think pick 3 for McKay is in any way justified?

 

[twadds]

That's band 4 out of 5. I would guess somewhere around 350k-400k a season?

It would probably have been more the role than the dollars.

Band 4 is usually top 50% of the comp salary wise. A little surprising

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Taking WCE_phil comments, if we can't get pick 2 in a trade for pick 1, we shouldn't even consider any offers.

Like ROB said on radio recently, #1 draft picks don't come around too often (once every 18yrs on average!), let's take the talent such an early pick gives us access to and not muck around.

 

[free2play]

Except 14 will become like pick 20 won't it after academy and priority picks?

Could be wrong

Does it make a difference if you get the player that you want at that pick. Sure Rogers, Read and Walters are all gone, but that is really it in terms of guaranteed players to have been picked. Of those we would probably want Walters as lets face it despite Allen we are probably 1 tall forward short. Neither of the other 2 whilst very talented are what we really need, Rogers is a small mid and Read is a Ruckman (probably the 1 area that we are good for numbers currently).

Other than midfielders and more midfielders. What we need is really 1-2 more developing KPD (depending on your views of Edwards or Jameson playing as a defensive pillar), ideally 1 more KPF forward (although I have high hopes for Maric and B Williams playing there). This years draft is basically non existent on genuine midfielders other than McKercher and Sanders. So we are best of drafting what there is depth in and addressing midfielders next year where there currently appears to be great depth.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

The blokes a massive upgrade on what we have but wtf have we offered him??





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Given the contracts that just came off the books, I'm not really going to worry about how much they're offering free agents for the next 2-3 years. There's definitely not enough talent on the list at the moment for them to start bumping up against the cap.

 

[Keys]

By way of comparison, Melbourne received a R3 pick (band 5) for Jayden Hunt

5

Jayden Hunt

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

1star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

3star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

2star

last year

Hunt (27 at the time) was a year older than Flynn (26) is now which might have been the difference

 

[MaxHunt]

Historical 26 to 30 for a ruck is prime time. Happy with whatever they gave give to trigger an end of 2nd.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

At lunch at the combine.

It is a major issue. As at AFL standard fitness he won't be able to shake a tag if he's good enough to attract one and he doesn't have Dusty, Petracca or De Goey's explosive take away speed.

People on here see Reid as a future top 10 in the league player and expect him to become one with using pick 1 on him. If you can't break a tag you are never going to be that player.

His fitness against U18's is the large part of his transition issue and why he is either good one on one in F50, D50 or at centre bounce downs but fails to rack up big numbers and impose across a whole game. Fitness against a single U18 group vs fitness against a matured AFL side is a huge jump.

The dogs all but certain to get pick 4 which will leave North with 2,(3*),14,19(20*) the bracketed asterisk is the compo pick. Lets say North end up with pick 3. I would want 2,14,19 and both of their future end of first round picks for 1,39 and our future second and third. Sure one of those extra end of firsts doesn't move the metre much because of the future second we give up however as priority picks they will come in before any compensation picks to push out our second so are a guaranteed 19,20 next year.

2,14,19,21,34 this year (McKercher as pick 2)
2,19,20 next year. (next year is when I would look to trade our future first forward and start going very hard at free agents)

We throw the hawks a bone and give them both 53&58 for brockman. The club won't use both picks, it's more than fair and the points will be very useful to the hawks.

North go to the draft this year with 1,3, a rookie upgrade and their traded in players (39,40,52)
North go to the draft next year with 1,21,22,40,41 next year.

Next round of interviews coming up, enjoy your day everyone.

Just trying to distil this to simplify it while putting in the expected push back in position assuming MacKay gets Norf pick 3

My reading of it would be:
1. 2023 - instead of Reid and pick 41 we get 2, 15 and 20
2. 2024 - we lose our future R3 (circa 42 to 46) for Pick 19 and we move from our R2 pick at 22 to 25 to pick 20.





Is this a godfather offer? Probably not. Does it cash in massively? I think so.

The 2024 piece is significant and should not be under estimated. We swap out a 2 picks around 23 and 41 for 19 and 20 and these will only slide back IF there is a band 1 compensation (I am ignoring NGA and FS bids)

This year, instead of Reid and say someone like Hall at 41, we potentially get McKercher (2), Murphy (15) and Delean (or whoever we want at 20).

If I had my way and assuming realistic targets, we walk away this year with =
2. McKercher at 2 (best pure balanced mid in the draft)
15. Murphy at 15 (best lock down KPD in the draft to replace Barrass)
20. Delean (next best small forward behind Watson)
22 Zakostelsky (a CHB that will replace Gov)
36. Patton (general defender that can play tall or small
Brockman for 55 and 60
Flynn as a FA

OK - I am listening. It is a decent haul and upgrade from our current hand by getting McKercher instead of Reid.

If it was for Curtin, I am not doing it.

 

[donpyke92]

Not interested in wasting time over Brockman negotiations, if that early second round ask is legit (even just as a negotiation tactic) just walk him to the PSD and be done with it.

A late 50s pick should be done in the first ten minutes of the trade period.

And anyone even contemplating trading Pick 1 can go do one. The media hype train is enough to make me want to vomit.

Agree CC.
I recall in Tim Kelly negotiations Chris Scott said basically not give a leg up for other contenders, aka WCE.
Hopefully, we are mindful of that in dealings with Hawthorn, NM, et al who are roundabouts in the re-building stage. (contending for ladder climbs/list/next premiership)
Not saying be arsehats with trading, like Cats/Ess, just don't be roll over nice guys. FMD
Brockman is an easy one for WCE, as you've said already.
Backing ROB in

 

[Free Agent]

Taking WCE_phil comments, if we can't get pick 2 in a trade for pick 1, we shouldn't even consider any offers.

Like ROB said on radio recently, #1 draft picks don't come around too often (once every 18yrs on average!), let's take the talent such an early pick gives us access to and not muck around.

This is the thing that worries me about recruiters. As it's there job I reckon there's a lot of pressure feeling like they have to justify it by working out some magic trade and there would definitely be a bit of feeling for unnecessary risk then going for what's right in front of us. I think with Reid and keeping pick 1 would be like the it's too easy option. It's too boring for them.

This year I just hope our recruiters pride and ego don't get in the way of picking the best talent in Reid. Imagine giving up Dustin Martin for later risky picks like Brander. We don't need to be taking a gamble for late picks just because it makes them feel like they are doing a job. Pieman I have faith in. He has done a good job so far and it seems like that's what he's alluring too in keeping pick 1.

#stay strong pieman

 

[Jed Clampet]

Just from a club perspective you don't look at how club tied players lower a draft pick. The open pool is the open pool. If you rate a FS/NGA player highly enough you bid on them and hope to get them otherwise they aren't thought of as much. You still do full scouting on them. So for all the crap where people go well pick 19 isn't pick 19 it's going to be pick 25 is bullshit. You still have pick 19 of the open pool.

Thanks for saying this, we have no chance on academy, father sons and this argument you are getting the 19th best player s me. We are getting the best player that all clubs can access.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Our pick 1 is actually pick 14 after FA and Academy bids.