Autopsy AFL 2025 Round 12 - Pies v Hawks - Fri May 30th 7:40pm AEST (MCG)

[cryptor]

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If Pendles, Sidey, Moore, Hill and Schultz come back in the Pies should get up. Big 6'4 Ned Long with a point to prove will guard Nick like a rabid dog.

Hawks by 67.

I hope the 6’6 Conor Nash (who seemingly doesn’t have football skill) to do something by running through Long who’s protecting Daicos then.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Pies will win due to strong season form, home ground advantage at the MCG, better scoring efficiency, and recent head-to-head wins. I’m expecting (and hoping for) a close victory. Pies by 17 points.

What

Hawthorn v Collingwood
MCG tenant v MCG tentant
+ + = home ground advantage?

H2H
HAW by 66
COL by 5
HAW by 32
COL by 4
HAW by 19

3-2
Average HAW winning margin - 39
Collingwoods - 4.5

 

[Cyclops]

View attachment 2326043

Maybe it's more #PlayOnCollingwood and #freekickhawthorn? Our indiscretions are sometimes overlooked.

That said, certain Pies (Daics and above all Pendles) have special AFL passes they can show the umps a set number of frees each quarter, so we'll get the important ones.

 

[_jrtp09_]

What

Hawthorn v Collingwood
MCG tenant v MCG tentant
+ + = home ground advantage?

H2H
HAW by 66
COL by 5
HAW by 32
COL by 4
HAW by 19

3-2
Average HAW winning margin - 39
Collingwoods - 4.5

You’re not based in Tassie? My bad.
Then it would be most embarrassing if you lost based on those stats.
Good luck.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

You’re not based in Tassie? My bad.
Then it would be most embarrassing if you lost based on those stats.
Good luck.

Was it just a poor attempt at rage bait because what

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Hawks will respond. 15 points.

Agree, this one’s theirs to lose.

 

[rei154]

If we can sort out our pressure in the middle we're a good chance in this one, especially if Bobby doesn't get up for them.

When we were winning at the start of the year, Day was a factor, but our pressure was also consistently above the 180 mark. If we can reclaim that, especially when Naicos has the pill, we should be able to hold against the Pies forward line.

Massive game for Sicily and Moore (hawthorn) imo. Two players who have lead the cultural shift at the club, but both are currently down on form significantly.

Pies by 13

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Hawthorn every chance to knock us off.

Then the wise pundits can reannoint the Hawks, then write them off again and so on.

Hawthorn still a vigorous well coached side. Yes there's a question on the top end but very few glaring weaknesses. Honestly they are in a little form slump.

Pretty sure Fly is taking them extremely seriously.

Depth in the midfield is our weakness. Without Day there's no line breaking clearances. We have good players in their but outside Newcombe they are limited. That's why we have thrown Dylan Moore in there a bit this year to change up the dynamic. Wouldn't be against Watson having a crack in there as well. Need speed.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Any win is a good win v hawks.

But thinking of a controlling 25 point win will do.

Type of game that you want to play solid footy from first minute to the last.

String together good quarters.

Pies by 4 goals.

Players coming back.

Still think Moore misses again just 1 more week for Moore.

The rest return.

Maynard only real out from the North game.

Pies have a good problem to have.

2023 was like that.

Sportsbet only has line of 6 in pies favour but i think it should be more like 18.

Weather to suit pies like it a tad wet as well.

Cool breezes touch of a spot of drizzle just before the game.

Touch greasy deck.

Close early on but the Pies are all class.

Fly and co we win.

We flogged you guys in the wet last year. If anything it favours us. Need to bring alot of pressure and be efficient by foot otherwise Collingwood will feast on the turnovers. Number 1 and number 2 for marks inside 50 these 2 are but for different reasons. Us pinpointing passes you guys getting off the chain on the turnover. Should be an interesting clash of styles.

 

[Cyclops]

Depth in the midfield is our weakness. Without Day there's no line breaking clearances. We have good players in their but outside Newcombe they are limited. That's why we have thrown Dylan Moore in there a bit this year to change up the dynamic. Wouldn't be against Watson having a crack in there as well. Need speed.

Ginni played back of the square midfield in the 23 grand final and wasn't shamed.

We did flood the guts to force Brisbane wide but his play was efficient and he made zero positional mistakes: slotted in to a complex midfield ahead of the experienced Lipinski.

Slow and weak but his brain is very fast and makes great decisions. Has Mitchell tried him in there?

We flogged you guys in the wet last year. If anything it favours us. Need to bring alot of pressure and be efficient by foot otherwise Collingwood will feast on the turnovers. Number 1 and number 2 for marks inside 50 these 2 are but for different reasons. Us pinpointing passes you guys getting off the chain on the turnover. Should be an interesting clash of styles.

Yeah I remember, absolutely unsurprised by Fly resting stars so they are fresh for the Hawks, he hates losing and Hawthorn is one of the few sides to give us a beating in recent tears.

We've lost games and had a few blow-outs (eg Giants this year) but the 23 loss to Hawthorn stung.

 

[Mr Meow]

If Hawthorn use the ball how they did against Geelong and Brisbane at the G, Collingwood will score 10 goals off turnovers alone.

 

[demondavey]

Hawks. Hawks.

They’ll respond. They don’t do losing very well and Mitchell will be keen on a reply.

 

[PizzaPie]

Pies by 2 or 3 hundred

 

[Mitchell Madness]

If Hawthorn use the ball how they did against Geelong and Brisbane at the G, Collingwood will score 10 goals off turnovers alone.

Maybe vs Brisbane, but hawks should've won vs geelong

 

[Mr Meow]

Maybe vs Brisbane, but hawks should've won vs geelong

Hawthorn fed Geelong goals with mistakes all games long.

Sicily alone was incredible that match.

 

[Monco Matt]

Only the Lions, Giants and Hawks do I have minimal confidence in beating any given week, all other teams we can play our best footy against normally. The Hawks always seem to play well against us even in defeat while we just seem to save our worst for them. We have won 23 of the last 72 encounters and only 4 of the last 19. I see no reason why the result of this game would be any different.

Hawks by 18 points........and we move on to other teams we can actually beat!

Hope I'm wrong though! Go Pies!

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn fed Geelong goals with mistakes all games long.

Sicily alone was incredible that match.

Never seen a game where players for both teams used the ball immaculate when under pressure and turned into footballers without feet and butchering the complete crap out of it when in (Matt hill voice) “splendid isolation”. So many clean hands to get it into space just to butcher it, repeat .

 

[Cyclops]

Never seen a game where players for both teams used the ball immaculate when under pressure and turned into footballers without feet and butchering the complete crap out of it when in (Matt hill voice) “splendid isolation”. So many clean hands to get it into space just to butcher it, repeat .

The modern gzne rolling up the lines to pressure the field as much as the kicker has amazing results. Collingwood gets a bunch of OOF frees from this.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

The modern gzne rolling up the lines to pressure the field as much as the kicker has amazing results. Collingwood gets a bunch of OOF frees from this.

It was the fact players used it better with pressure than in space by themselves and kick it like idiots. Was odd

 

[Cyclops]

It was the fact players used it better with pressure than in space by themselves and kick it like idiots. Was odd

Yes that is odd. I wonder how much referred pressure was at play?

Pies feed one or two blokes into the contested ball and the rest roll the zone forward of the ball.

Its like WWI attrition tactics, holding the enemy back with minimum sufficient pressure at the schwerpunkt, then folding the counter attack in supporting echelons.

 

[HairyO]

Hawthorn fed Geelong goals with mistakes all games long.

Sicily alone was incredible that match.

He really has dropped away massively compared to the previous 3 years.

 

[Cyclops]

He really has dropped away massively compared to the previous 3 years.

So the way the Hawks win is what? Improve DE (whether at the kickers or the forwards end) and get some better form from Sicily and/or some fringe mids? That's doable.

The way we win is keep it tight and get somebody off the chain (Houston, either Daicos) to hurt them on the rebound. That could work too.

Respect the Hawks too much to call it either way.

 

[HairyO]

So the way the Hawks win is what? Improve DE (whether at the kickers or the forwards end) and get some better form from Sicily and/or some fringe mids? That's doable.

The way we win is keep it tight and get somebody off the chain (Houston, either Daicos) to hurt them on the rebound. That could work too.

Respect the Hawks too much to call it either way.

We really dont have a functioning forward line so we need elite kicking I50. Chol is doing an amazing job mostly on his own, with Gunston helping out as much as he can.

We need Dear back fit and working because Chol needs a serious contested marking forward working with him.

 

[Cyclops]

We really dont have a functioning forward line so we need elite kicking I50. Chol is doing an amazing job mostly on his own, with Gunston helping out as much as he can.

We need Dear back fit and working because Chol needs a serious contested marking forward working with him.

I like both of them. I have (pretty distant) connection to the Dears and wish Calsher well, great young fella I hear.

Chol is my favourite kind of player, a great big lump, 100% honest hard work. That haircut has got to go though.

They might be your Tarrant/Rocca or Buddy/Roughy combo. Contrasting styles for sure.

You'll get a look at Ben Allan's boy hopefully. Hasn't quite realised how good he is, just starting to show glimpses, but it's a happening thing. Not exactly like the dad, but definitely hard running and has that slightly scooping kicking style.