Will Hawthorn make the 8?

[Pessimistic]

They overachieved last year by finishing 4th and that was proven to be true with a straight sets exit.

If their younger mids can take the next step they might finish in the 5th-8th bracket but without Mitchell it’s more likely that they finish just outside of the 8 this year with some emerging sides on the cusp of finals.

Really love the overachieved tag when we got 15 wins and even 12th got 12 wins. Even season

 

[Jobe Watson]

Their list smells and they've just lost their best player for the season.

Bottom 6 bookmark it.

 

[hawkman]

Had a look at the fixture and I can't see us losing a game

 

[Pessimistic]

Had a look at the fixture and I can't see us losing a game

Maybe 2, when we switch off for some unfashionable reason

 

[Vindicater]

Had them 6th to 12th before the Mitchell injury.

Now have them 8th to 14th.

 

[footy75]

Don't think they make it.

 

[fishardansin]

Good chance to go bottom 4 this year, and will probably continue to decline further for another few years.

 

[Pessimistic]

Tough draw. Essendon only once

 

[Topkent]

If someone told you at the start of last year Collingwood had the best depth, you'd be laughing. We know they have the best depth now because of how good they replaced their injured players. Appleby, Miochek, Sier, Brown etc were seen exactly like Cousins, Howe, Morrison and Minchington are now

Lol wrong

Pendles, Adams, Treloar, Wells, Sidebottom, Greenwood were the established players
Improvement came from Phillips, Sier, De Goey, Crisp, Broomhead

They've also added bloody Beams. Collingwood came into the season with a group of underperforming young talent. No one picked an almost flag but finals weren't out of the question. Hawks on the other hand are still squeezing the most out of an aging list thanks to a super coach. The likely hood of Howe becoming a star is less likely than some of your over 30s falling off a cliff.

The list demographics that could explode are Essendon/StKilda/Brisbane

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

7 - 12 for mine. Mitchell is a huge loss and if Scully can't come good and Jaeger's knee flares up, we are in for a tough year.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Obviously they will miss Mitchell and have injury concerns re several other players, but I expect they will be thereabouts.

Clarko will probably eke enough from his list and his coffees with Prince Gil to help the Hawks make the 8.

 

[footyfan1978]

To be fair though, Brisbane took a few years after 2004 before they became s**t. They sort of managed to hold on the next few years before falling off a cliff.

Like Hawthorn been doing.

 

[KermitJagger]

Betting on Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong to miss the 8 backfires more often than not. Why do these threads keep getting made?

All 3 clubs will be there in September, more likely than not.

Lol wrong

Pendles, Adams, Treloar, Wells, Sidebottom, Greenwood were the established players
Improvement came from Phillips, Sier, De Goey, Crisp, Broomhead

They've also added bloody Beams. Collingwood came into the season with a group of underperforming young talent. No one picked an almost flag but finals weren't out of the question. Hawks on the other hand are still squeezing the most out of an aging list thanks to a super coach. The likely hood of Howe becoming a star is less likely than some of your over 30s falling off a cliff.

The list demographics that could explode are Essendon/StKilda/Brisbane

Which of our over 30s has a cliff to fall off? Of everyone in that list for this year, Burgoyne is the only one that we still rely on to some extent. Roughead is not expected to star any more, Puopolo is a role player and we've essentially not had Grant Birchall for the last two years anyway. Those last three are more of a stumble off a short ledge than a cliff fall.

There are better reasons to question Hawthorn than our age profile, so I'm not sure why it's the most used. The oldest NBA teams continue to compete in the play offs, the oldest NFL teams continue to win rings. Shallow list analysis of the "hur durr over thurty" variety is getting old.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Bottom 2

 

[Topkent]

Betting on Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong to miss the 8 backfires more often than not. Why do these threads keep getting made?

All 3 clubs will be there in September, more likely than not.



Which of our over 30s has a cliff to fall off? Of everyone in that list for this year, Burgoyne is the only one that we still rely on to some extent. Roughead is not expected to star any more, Puopolo is a role player and we've essentially not had Grant Birchall for the last two years anyway. Those last three are more of a stumble off a short ledge than a cliff fall.

There are better reasons to question Hawthorn than our age profile, so I'm not sure why it's the most used. The oldest NBA teams continue to compete in the play offs, the oldest NFL teams continue to win rings. Shallow list analysis of the "hur durr over thurty" variety is getting old.

Any player over 30 could be one season away from retirement, plenty of good players at 30 have fallen off a cliff at 31 and retired. It's not hurr durr it's emotionless analysis. I'm not betting on any to retire, but I certainly wouldn't bet heavily against any of them retiring either.

I respect what Hawthorn has done but it takes time to replace those good players. The names Howe, Michington, Cousins etc mentioned aren't any more special than any young players at every single club.

 

[threesixpio]

-1 Tom Mitchell is massive

+ 1 Sam Mitchell is well timed to train up a young midfield

Scully and Wingard good additions

Need improvement from a bunch otherwise it will be tough

Not so Secret weapon: Clarko

Not sure - but won’t fall off my chair if we do well, against the odds. That’s how we like it

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Isn't Wingard best as a forward?

As for Scully, it sounds like no one knows if he will ever get back to the fitness he needs in order to be a really good midfielder again. Hawthorn got him for a packet of chips because neither GWS or Hawthorn were sure Scully would ever get fit again, and Hawthorn were willing to take the punt that he would.

Their's truth in that sadly, but it's not really the point. Clarkson may well see a role for Scully that we didn't, but to me he's fundamentally an outside player.

He's too slight of frame to be wrestling to free his arms and get a handball away in the trenches.

He is a very good outside player and will run very hard all day to find space and present an option for the guys looking for an out with opposition mids in contact.

Much if the criticism of Scully in our early years was unfair. If the inside guys aren't winning the ball then all he can do is chase and tackle, which he also does very well.

Bottom line is he wont directly assist to replace Mitchell, but he could make the inside guys life a bit easier.

 

[Topkent]

Their's truth in that sadly, but it's not really the point. Clarkson may well see a role for Scully that we didn't, but to me he's fundamentally an outside player.

He's too slight of frame to be wrestling to free his arms and get a handball away in the trenches.

He is a very good outside player and will run very hard all day to find space and present an option for the guys looking for an out with opposition mids in contact.

Much if the criticism of Scully in our early years was unfair. If the inside guys aren't winning the ball then all he can do is chase and tackle, which he also does very well.

Bottom line is he wont directly assist to replace Mitchell, but he could make the inside guys life a bit easier.

The critisicm was completely justified. He lied to a dying man about his intentions and wasn't worth anywhere near the money he collected in his first contract.

Don't begrudge him taking the money, it was a good time to leave Melbourne but he underperformed early competitive go his pay

 

[KermitJagger]

Any player over 30 could be one season away from retirement, plenty of good players at 30 have fallen off a cliff at 31 and retired. It's not hurr durr it's emotionless analysis. I'm not betting on any to retire, but I certainly wouldn't bet heavily against any of them retiring either.

I respect what Hawthorn has done but it takes time to replace those good players. The names Howe, Michington, Cousins etc mentioned aren't any more special than any young players at every single club.

It's not emotionless analysis though, it's weak analysis that only ever may have been of benefit back in the 90s and early 2000s where players rarely went on for long beyond 30. The level of professionalism that the average AFL footballer has now is far and beyond what they have had before, the medical and fitness staff around the players has improved beyond what it was before. Elite sportspeople perform at a higher level for longer, to the point where it was age and not performance that pushed Boomer Harvey out as it will probably do to Shaun Burgoyne.

I'm not saying it's good to have all your best players over 30 because they can play forever, but my point is that:

1. Our players over 30 are no longer irreplaceable as we don't depend on them, and
2. We can take a bit more time to replace them because their careers can be extended more than they used to.

You need to be more nuanced with criticisms about age. I've said on other threads, I would agree with you if we still had Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Josh Gibson in the top 5 of the B&F every year - as that balances age against importance to team. Criticism on age itself is lazy.

 

[KermitJagger]

Their's truth in that sadly, but it's not really the point. Clarkson may well see a role for Scully that we didn't, but to me he's fundamentally an outside player.

He's too slight of frame to be wrestling to free his arms and get a handball away in the trenches.

He is a very good outside player and will run very hard all day to find space and present an option for the guys looking for an out with opposition mids in contact.

Much if the criticism of Scully in our early years was unfair. If the inside guys aren't winning the ball then all he can do is chase and tackle, which he also does very well.

Bottom line is he wont directly assist to replace Mitchell, but he could make the inside guys life a bit easier.

He is what we needed. Teams realised that tagging Mitchell didn't work, but we really struggled when Isaac Smith was taken out of the game. Hill leaving uncovered that weakness and probably hurt us more than any other 2016 departure.

A fit Scully fixes that.

 

[jakson68]

Yes before Tom's injury but no after it.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

The critisicm was completely justified. He lied to a dying man about his intentions and wasn't worth anywhere near the money he collected in his first contract.

Don't begrudge him taking the money, it was a good time to leave Melbourne but he underperformed early competitive go his pay

I made no comment about his Melbiurne days though, deliberately. I was referring to press criticism of his footy with us in his early days. You cant conflate that with leaving the Demons.

Interesting that Dave Matthews referred to his difficult past when stating we weren't prepared to shop him around.

 

[Topkent]

I made no comment about his Melbiurne days though, deliberately. I was referring to press criticism of his footy with us in his early days. You cant conflate that with leaving the Demons.

Interesting that Dave Matthews referred to his difficult past when stating we weren't prepared to shop him around.

That's exactly what I was referring to, he was pretty poor for his first few years at GWS

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

That's exactly what I was referring to, he was pretty poor for his first few years at GWS

No he wasn't for the reasons I've given. If you looked closely he was often covering multiple guys in an outside defensive role.

 

[Topkent]

No he wasn't for the reasons I've given. If you looked closely he was often covering multiple guys in an outside defensive role.

Yeah that's the role you want a bloke who's on a million a season playing. He was distinctly average.