Hawthorn to play finals in 2024?

[SSSSSS]

Could, but most likely won't. If you believe Hawthorn are a bottom 4 team, as I do, then their schedule for 2024 is actually really nasty. Not a lot of likely wins on the fixture in my humble opinion. In fact, I'll demonstrate...

Below is how I project the season for both teams. I assume you'll disagree and that's fine. Regardless, a few notes for my projections;

• Even though I have NMFC as better than Hawthorn, I have us splitting the games. But obviously if North sweeps Hawthorn, or vice versa, that's a big swing in W/L totals for both teams.
• This only projects what I personally consider to be likely wins, and doesn't account for upsets (such as NMFC or Hawthorn beating teams when they play them in Tassie, etc)
• I'm not claiming this as a scientific process that will eventuate. Just explaining my subjective opinion of where both teams are at in the course of their rebuilds etc.

WIN/LOSS projections - projected wins in bold

NMFC:
at GWS
vs FRE
vs CAR
vs BRIS (SA)
at GEE
vs HAW
vs ADL (TAS)
at STK
at GCS (NT)
at ESS
vs PA (TAS)
at WCE
vs COLL
at MEL
vs WBD
vs GCS
at SYD
at CAR
vs GEE (TAS)
vs RICH
vs WCE
at WBD
at HAW (TAS)


HAWTHORN:
at ESS
vs MEL
vs GEE
at COLL (SA)
at GCS
at NMFC
vs SYD
at WBD
vs STK (TAS)
at PA
vs BRIS
vs ADL
vs GWS (TAS)
at RICH
at WCE
at GEE
vs FRE (TAS)
vs COLL
at ADL
at GWS
at CAR
vs RICH
vs NMFC (TAS)

Didn't they run an analysis on fixture difficulty and for some reason as a bottom 4 team we received the 5th or 6th (thought it was 3rd) hardest fixture in the comp (GC with the easiest and North 2nd easiest). Go figure.

I really can't see North winning anywhere close to 8 games. 2 would be a disaster. I think 4 would be par. 6 would be a good result.

8 would have Clarko up there as coach of the season.

 

[Chadwiko]

Didn't they run an analysis on fixture difficulty and for some reason as a bottom 4 team we received the 5th or 6th (thought it was 3rd) hardest fixture in the comp (GC with the easiest and North 2nd easiest). Go figure.

Yeah, the fixture is legitimately a big part of why I have North rising and Hawthorn falling. That, and I genuinely think Hawthorn are about to have their bottoming-out year.

I really can't see North winning anywhere close to 8 games. 2 would be a disaster. I think 4 would be par. 6 would be a good result.

8 would have Clarko up there as coach of the season.

I'd love to see you go through each of the games like I did and predict the wins for both Hawthorn and NMFC.

 

[SSSSSS]

Yeah, the fixture is legitimately a big part of why I have North rising and Hawthorn falling. That, and I genuinely think Hawthorn are about to have their bottoming-out year.



I'd love to see you go through each of the games like I did and predict the wins for both Hawthorn and NMFC.

NMFC:
at GWS
vs FRE
vs CAR
vs BRIS (SA)
at GEE
vs HAW
vs ADL (TAS)
at STK
at GCS (NT)
at ESS
vs PA (TAS)
at WCE
vs COLL
at MEL
vs WBD
vs GCS
at SYD
at CAR
vs GEE (TAS)
vs RICH
vs WCE
at WBD

I can pencil you in for the home game against the Weagles. I think the Eagles against a bottom 4 side at home is still going to be a 50/50 proposition.

A few of the teams who I think will be on the bottom half of the ladder (Essendon, Hawthorn, Richmond, Freo) might slip on a banana skin here and there but I'd still have them 60/40 favourites over North.

I can see North finishing with anywhere from 1-6 wins.

HAWTHORN:
at ESS
vs MEL
vs GEE
at COLL (SA)
at GCS
at NMFC
vs SYD
at WBD
vs STK (TAS)
at PA
vs BRIS
vs ADL
vs GWS (TAS)
at RICH
at WCE
at GEE
vs FRE (TAS)
vs COLL
at ADL
at GWS
at CAR
vs RICH
vs NMFC (TAS)

I can pencil us in against those three at least. Probably split a result against the Tigers who look putrid (though they tend to match up well against us). Bombers could go either way, a genuine 50/50 we both have some issues. We'll probably find a few late season upsets here and there as well. Freo at Tassie should be a win.

I think we will get anywhere from 6-10 wins depending on some of the 50/50s.

 

[Chadwiko]

Ha. Alrighty then.

 

[SSSSSS]

Ha. Alrighty then.

I feel like predicting 8 wins for one of the worst sides in AFL history is peak delusion (especially after they lose their only AFL standard KPD) but then again I did read this weekend that Merrett of the Essendon variety is worth more than JUH so maybe I need to redefine my definition of 'peak delusion'.

 

[Chadwiko]

I feel like predicting 8 wins for one of the worst sides in AFL history is peak delusion

You've got NMFC winning fewer games in 2024 than they did in 2023.

All homerism/bias aside, that's ridiculous.

 

[SSSSSS]

You've got NMFC winning fewer games in 2024 than they did in 2023.

All homerism/bias aside, that's ridiculous.

I'm only bolding what I consider to be certain wins for both clubs. There's a fair few 50/50s and 40/60s.

Anything can happen.

I don't think it's unreasonable to predict North will be within ±2 wins of their previous performance in 2023.

 

[Chadwiko]

I'm only bolding what I consider to be certain wins for both clubs. There's a fair few 50/50s and 40/60s.

Anything can happen.

And you're confident that Hawthorn will beat NMFC twice?

 

[SSSSSS]

And you're confident that Hawthorn will beat NMFC twice?

Why wouldn't I be?

We dispatched your team easily last season and again the season prior. I can't say any of the inclusions for either team are likely to move the needle in the immediate future (Ginni will be good for Hawthorn, I can see Fisher doing bits off HBF for North).

I really fail to see a different result in 2024. It would be a big upset if North were to knock us off once.

 

[Chadwiko]

Why wouldn't I be?

We dispatched your team easily last season and again the season prior. I can't say any of the inclusions for either team are likely to move the needle in the immediate future (Ginni will be good for Hawthorn, I can see Fisher doing bits off HBF for North).

I really fail to see a different result in 2024. It would be a big upset if North were to knock us off once.

Bring on the season

 

[Jeremias]

All homerism/bias aside, that's ridiculous.

I'd be inclined to agree if that's what the poster was actually suggesting. But it seems you completely misunderstood the post.

It's not unreasonable to suggest North only has one 'certain' win in 2024. It would be more unreasonable to suggest they'll only win one game, but quite clearly that was not the point being made.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Why wouldn't I be?

We dispatched your team easily last season and again the season prior. I can't say any of the inclusions for either team are likely to move the needle in the immediate future (Ginni will be good for Hawthorn, I can see Fisher doing bits off HBF for North).

I really fail to see a different result in 2024. It would be a big upset if North were to knock us off once.

yeah...........i wouldn't use the word big.

Any underdog that wins is an upset.

Hawthorn aren't leaps and bounds ahead of North Melbourne, neither are Essendon to be fair. If Hawthorn beat Essendon this weekend it would be an upset, but would it be a big one? No. We are both shithouse.

 

[SSSSSS]

yeah...........i wouldn't use the word big.

Any underdog that wins is an upset.

Hawthorn aren't leaps and bounds ahead of North Melbourne, neither are Essendon to be fair. If Hawthorn beat Essendon this weekend it would be an upset, but would it be a big one? No. We are both shithouse.

We are poo but North and the Eagles are historically poo.

There are levels to this game.

 

[HairyO]

Yeah, the fixture is legitimately a big part of why I have North rising and Hawthorn falling. That, and I genuinely think Hawthorn are about to have their bottoming-out year.



I'd love to see you go through each of the games like I did and predict the wins for both Hawthorn and NMFC.

Beating GCS twice? Far more likely to lose both than to win both.

 

[Chadwiko]

Beating GCS twice? Far more likely to lose both than to win both.

Once in Darwin and once in Melbourne.

Yeah I have North as beating them.

 

[SSSSSS]

Once in Darwin and once in Melbourne.

Yeah I have North as beating them.

I guess it's true what they say. You're only as good as your last game.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

We are poo but North and the Eagles are historically poo.

There are levels to this game.

wtf lol

s**t is s**t brother. Doesn't matter what colour or consistency it is.

 

[Chadwiko]

wtf lol

s**t is s**t brother. Doesn't matter what colour or consistency it is.

Only one team literally wears a s**t coloured uniform though

 

[SSSSSS]

Only one team literally wears a s**t coloured uniform though

Only team to wear gold too

 

[Chadwiko]

Only team to wear gold too

No, that's blatantly not true.

The West Coast Eagles 'gold' is more of a true gold than Hawthorn's.
The Gold Coast Suns 'gold' is also more 'gold' than Hawthorn's.

 

[SSSSSS]

No, that's blatantly not true.

The West Coast Eagles 'gold' is more of a true gold than Hawthorn's.
The Gold Coast Suns 'gold' is also more 'gold' than Hawthorn's.

Oh yeh I forgot about those interstaters. Silly me.

At least we wear it the best

 

[SSSSSS]

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Oh yeh I forgot about those interstaters. Silly me.

At least we wear it the best

Do they identify their colors as Gold?

I always thought they were Yellow.

 

[Chadwiko]

Do they identify their colors as Gold?

I always thought they were Yellow.

Official AFL Website of the West Coast Eagles

The Official AFL Website of the West Coast Eagles

www.westcoasteagles.com.au

Official AFL Website of the Gold Coast SUNS

The official AFL website of the Gold Coast SUNS Football Club

www.goldcoastfc.com.au

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

We don’t know how to pick players in the draft so may as well throw the kitchen sink at everyone coming out of contract….

I’d also like to know who this core group of young talent are at Hawthorn apart from Newcombe…..