Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[eastfreo75]

Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.

Got a feeling, whoever wins will be blocked by the senate.

The government will need to trend carefully.

 

[Jascave]

Bill Shorten will really need to be on his game next Monday night at the leaders debate in Perth (ie no gaffes or errors), because if Shorten makes a mistake, it could come back to haunt him on May 18, and election night would be more interesting to watch in comparison to the one-sided affair we would’ve been expecting just several months ago.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Bill Shorten will really need to be on his game next Monday night at the leaders debate in Perth (ie no gaffes or errors), because if Shorten makes a mistake, it could come back to haunt him on May 18, and election night would be more interesting to watch in comparison to the one-sided affair we would’ve been expecting just several months ago.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

And if ScoMo makes a mistake?

See how bias works?

 

[Rob R]

Tony Abbott was elected on the back of a six page brochure outlining a "plan" with a few bullet point ideas and some nice pictures. Do you really think the electorate is that fussy about costings and minutiae of policy? History suggests not.

Generally they wouldnt and I think it will only change a small number of votes this time but Abbott never quoted a report as reference and then have the reports author come out and say his policy might cost $60bn like Shorten had happen last week.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Saw a report that suggests 40% of voters will vote Pre-Poll commencing Monday indicating those voters made up their minds some months ago as to which way they will vote.
In effect the election is already over

 

[Vader]

Nationals held up well in Victorian election. Maybe a few should be contesting liberal seats here

Nationals' support is very patchy. They held up well in Victoria, but were smashed in the Murray/Darling based seats in the NSW election.

 

[Pessimistic]

Nationals' support is very patchy. They held up well in Victoria, but were smashed in the Murray/Darling based seats in the NSW election.

You’d imagine they are more tuned to local issues

 

[pjcrows]

Bill Shorten will really need to be on his game next Monday night at the leaders debate in Perth (ie no gaffes or errors), because if Shorten makes a mistake, it could come back to haunt him on May 18, and election night would be more interesting to watch in comparison to the one-sided affair we would’ve been expecting just several months ago.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

The debate is being buried on 7TWO. No one will see it and no one really cares.

I pine for the days when news reported the news. These days every election, regardless of who is in government, there's such a push for a "neck and neck" narrative to keep people watching.

It's not neck and neck.

 

[Vader]

Got a feeling, whoever wins will be blocked by the senate.

The government will need to trend carefully.

Unlike the Libs, who take the view that "it's my way or the highway" (invariably resulting in the cross-bench choosing the latter option), the ALP have a history of negotiating successfully with the Senate cross-bench. That's why Gillard was actually a very successful PM, getting a lot of legislation through despite having a minority government in the HoR and no control over the Senate.

 

[Pessimistic]

Generally they wouldnt and I think it will only change a small number of votes this time but Abbott never quoted a report as reference and then have the reports author come out and say his policy might cost $60bn like Shorten had happen last week.

There was plenty of equivalent stuff though. And when he wasn’t repeating his slogans he continually looked to peta for instructions

 

[eastfreo75]

Unlike the Libs, who take the view that "it's my way or the highway" (invariably resulting in the cross-bench choosing the latter option), the ALP have a history of negotiating successfully with the Senate cross-bench. That's why Gillard was actually a very successful PM, getting a lot of legislation through despite having a minority government in the HoR and no control over the Senate.

totally.

Abbott didn't speak to the senate before his first budget.

He didn't get his unfair budget measures through but at the same time was left the unpopularity.

 

[Pessimistic]

Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.

That was Bowen’s point. The more the policies are discussed, the more they have a mandate which should be respected

Back to Keating. He said very publicly if people vote for hewson and the GST, he wouldn’t block it (never mind he wouldn’t be opposition leader in fact) focussed the public on the GST

I’d imagine future opposition leader fryzo is going to be very uncomfortable opposing NEG 2.0. They could be a fractured laughing stock by july

 

[Pessimistic]

totally.

Abbott didn't speak to the senate before his first budget.

He didn't get his unfair budget measures through but at the same time was left the unpopularity.

He also broke very public election promises. And who can forget his ‘only believe me if it’s written down’ speech. Shorten is a saint in comparison

 

[eastfreo75]

He also broke very public election promises. And who can forget his ‘only believe me if it’s written down’ speech. Shorten is a saint in comparison

Abbott was out of control and great at destroying.

Shorten is a bit shifty to me and stands for nothing.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Abbott was out of control and great at destroying.

Shorten is a bit shifty to me and stands for nothing.

Including about 20 policies that have been publicly released and published over the last 18 months

The shifty bastard....but you've got this covered, you've worked out what he is up to

 

[eastfreo75]

Including about 20 policies that have been publicly released and published over the last 18 months

The shifty bastard....but you've got this covered, you've worked out what he is up to

do you work for the Red team?

I can't get out of my mind how he shafted both Rudd and Gilliard.

I get a feeling he is like little finger in the Game of Thrones.

Take the policy to allows causal workers to ask for perm work after a year. The liberals tried it pass it through the senate but labor blocked it. That's politics not policy. Now they champion the idea. Total shifty to me.

He back flipped on Company tax pledge, and boat turn arounds.

 

[pjcrows]

do you work for the Red team?

I can't get out of my mind how he shafted both Rudd and Gilliard.

I get a feeling he is like little finger in the Game of Thrones.

Take the policy to allows causal workers to ask for perm work after a year. The liberals tried it pass it through the senate but labor blocked it. That's politics not policy. Now they champion the idea. Total shifty to me.

He back flipped on Company tax pledge, and boat turn arounds.

I'm not really a fan of Shorten, but do you understand politics?

 

[eastfreo75]

I'm not really a fan of Shorten, but do you understand politics?

Sure, personal ambition over personal conviction.

 

[pjcrows]

Sure, personal ambition over personal conviction.

Correct. You won't find an Australian PM who hasn't shafted numerous people in their ambition, though. The true test is their personal conviction being the driver of their policy once they become leader. Unfortunately, a Paul Keating-type is long gone from our politic.

 

[GreyCrow]

Saw a report that suggests 40% of voters will vote Pre-Poll commencing Monday indicating those voters made up their minds some months ago as to which way they will vote.
In effect the election is already over

Thats not particularly true. The ability to vote early with minimal excuse has seen a rise of the 'cant be bothered waiting' crowd. It may be true that they have made their mind up but I argue 99% of people make their minds up by the start of a campaign

Its only those looking to balance a Senate that dither over selection ie I am still looking over 1 or 2 policy platforms to decide 1 v 2

 

[magpienato]

Unsure as to who will win, but it will be a minority govt for sure

 

[Hawk Dork]

Went for a drive yesterday
One Nation has more than 10 to 1 core-flute in Flynn on the LNP who is about 4 to 1 on Labor
The fat guy has a lot of big billboards but virtually no core-flute

 

[Forward Press]

Unsure as to who will win, but it will be a minority govt for sure

And I don't mind that. Means the government cannot simply ram legislation through the House no matter how poor it might be. Gillard's minority government for all its faults got a lot of shit done.

Who would be the likely crossbenchers? Katter, Phelps, Wilkie, Bandt, Sharkie - anyone else that is a strong chance?

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Candidates have been announced.

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

Which Senate microparties are misleadingly named or fronts?

 

[Maggie5]

And I don't mind that. Means the government cannot simply ram legislation through the House no matter how poor it might be. Gillard's minority government for all its faults got a lot of shit done.

Who would be the likely crossbenchers? Katter, Phelps, Wilkie, Bandt, Sharkie - anyone else that is a strong chance?

Do you really think Phelps will get back in (I hope she does). Might be tighter this time around.