History suggests it generally tracks Labors national 2PP vote share pretty well. I think for the ONP candidate to get up the ALP would have to be doing well below expectations nationally and for voters to completely abandon the incumbent. On top of that if the UAP and Libs do a preference deal that will make it harder for the ONP candidate to get into the run off. I can't see it happening at the macro level - it would take a monumental localized development as far as I can see.
You and the other guy are probably right, but I have attended 3 LNP rallys/meetings in Flynn since the New Year and have never seen so many 'rusted on" LNP voters walk away in disgust and frustration.
These are people I've known for decades.
In my opinion, at least, the swing is really on against O'Dowd in Flynn, people hate Palmer here, the Labor candidate is a CFMEU stooge and the only 'decent candidate' is Lohse in rural peoples opinion.
btw, I hate hansen with a passion.