Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[ep2018]

Started off thinking LNP would lose Port 2007 GF style, then as the polls tightened I thought LNP would lose Sydney 2014 GF style, now after the news that 18-24 year olds have enrolled at a rate higher than any other year by a huge amount, I'm leaning back towards 2007 style.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors.

The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019.

Primary Voting Intention

The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%.
Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence

Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction.

These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.

 

[GreyCrow]

Most polls are conducted on landlines.

What 18-24 year old answers the house phone, let alone has their own landline at a rental.

And if the numbers are that bad now for the LNP imagine adding the disaffected youth

Lets be generous ie 48-52 LNP-Lab . That is mostly those with landlines or those over 50. This could get really ugly

 

[Forward Press]

And if the numbers are that bad now for the LNP imagine adding the disaffected youth

Lets be generous ie 48-52 LNP-Lab . That is mostly those with landlines or those over 50. This could get really ugly

The youth skew heavily left but they also have lower turnout numbers too.

Wouldn't count the chickens until the booths close on election day.

 

[Adz]

The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors.

The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019.

Primary Voting Intention

The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%.
Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence

Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction.

These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.

ALP are campaigning as if they are the Vic Gov and have had a mandate. All they had to do was run a negative campaign and keep policy issues in the back burner. They’ve blown it and they know it.

 

[Upgrayedd]

ALP are campaigning as if they are the Vic Gov and have had a mandate. All they had to do was run a negative campaign and keep policy issues in the back burner. They’ve blown it and they know it.

I reverse my decision the ALP to win like It's a Queensland state election on the line.

 

[campbell]

An account bet? Are you 12?

I have never stated that Flynn would fall to ON, but I have given valid reasons for why it MAY!
The Labor candidate is a hairy arsed boy whose base is firmly in Gladstone. The Nats sitting member is Ken O'Dowd who needs a bib to catch his drooling and his lack of tangible action, for the constituency outside of Gladstone is very well noted and there is deep seated animosity towards him and the Nat's in general throughout.
Like I said, I'll revisit this after the election.
Not from Sydney? That's ok. Different city, same attitude.


Got it today as well.
It's in the bin already.

In the last election, I took mine in to aec. Nf way do I trust any party with my vote.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ep2018]

Wouldn't count the chickens until the booths close on election day.

Similarly like 2013, this election will be called for Labor before voting closes in WA.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

And if the numbers are that bad now for the LNP imagine adding the disaffected youth

Lets be generous ie 48-52 LNP-Lab . That is mostly those with landlines or those over 50. This could get really ugly

Any pollster worth their salt scales the 18-24 result to match the greater population.

The only way youth landline response rates could impact accuracy, is if one voting cohort of 18-24 year-olds is more likely to be detected through this medium (e.g. do youths who still live with their parents and their landlines skew towards one particular party?)

 

[Breustiful]

The youth skew heavily left but they also have lower turnout numbers too.

Wouldn't count the chickens until the booths close on election day.

Let's hope this compulsory voting thing works on them.

 

[Pessimistic]

tony abbotts legacy

Not only firing up young voters, but entrenching the most extreme god botherer s in the liberal machine, where they’ll take some weeding out, yet also entrenching ten times more activists against them, who are younger and will live longer.
A generational gift

 

[Pessimistic]

ALP are campaigning as if they are the Vic Gov and have had a mandate. All they had to do was run a negative campaign and keep policy issues in the back burner. They’ve blown it and they know it.

Negative usually comes later when it’s hard to counter

 

[iluvparis]

Sportsbet is giving me $14 for One Nation to win the seat. Eagles were longer odds for the flag during the 2018 pre-season so I suppose it's not out of the question. I just don't see where it's coming from, though. If Pauline Hanson herself was unsuccessful in her lower house tilts, why would this One Nation candidate succeed? Was there not also disaffection with the Nats at the last election?

History suggests it generally tracks Labors national 2PP vote share pretty well. I think for the ONP candidate to get up the ALP would have to be doing well below expectations nationally and for voters to completely abandon the incumbent. On top of that if the UAP and Libs do a preference deal that will make it harder for the ONP candidate to get into the run off. I can't see it happening at the macro level - it would take a monumental localized development as far as I can see.

 

[pjcrows]

ALP are campaigning as if they are the Vic Gov and have had a mandate. All they had to do was run a negative campaign and keep policy issues in the back burner. They’ve blown it and they know it.

Firstly, there isn't a single poll in the last 3 years that has shown the Coalition ahead. Not one. They haven't blown anything.

Secondly, Labor only need to win 3 net seats to form a majority. There was this thing called the 2016 election.

Thirdly, they have been the most policy-heavy opposition in living memory. You may not like the policies, but they do exist. Shorten has not played small target.

Overall, you're full of sh*t.

 

[Craven Morehead]

History suggests it generally tracks Labors national 2PP vote share pretty well. I think for the ONP candidate to get up the ALP would have to be doing well below expectations nationally and for voters to completely abandon the incumbent. On top of that if the UAP and Libs do a preference deal that will make it harder for the ONP candidate to get into the run off. I can't see it happening at the macro level - it would take a monumental localized development as far as I can see.

You and the other guy are probably right, but I have attended 3 LNP rallys/meetings in Flynn since the New Year and have never seen so many 'rusted on" LNP voters walk away in disgust and frustration.
These are people I've known for decades.
In my opinion, at least, the swing is really on against O'Dowd in Flynn, people hate Palmer here, the Labor candidate is a CFMEU stooge and the only 'decent candidate' is Lohse in rural peoples opinion.
btw, I hate hansen with a passion.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

With a record youth enrollment of 89% for this election, I'm predicting an absolute shellacking for the government.

Way to let your disingenuousness on SSM come back and bite you on the arse big time, conservative dinosaurs. Karma.

 

[Rob R]

Apparently both sides are doing it:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04...idates-are-sending-postal-vote-forms/11028154

Yep got both and binned both.

 

[Rob R]

Tip Labor to win by 5-8 seats but the Senate could pose problems for the new Shorten government trying to get its legislation through parliament.

Also Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott to lose their seats.

That would be best case for the LNP. Dutton and Abbott gone, hopefully Turnbull shuts up, LNP has a chance to reform and a margin they can make up.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Yep got both and binned both.

Well done

Not a fan of party supplied postal voting. Should be from the AEC on request, and returned direct to the AEC

 

[Forward Press]

Not condoning the practice, but surely there are safeguards in place to ensure your vote is not tampered with when it is returned? I like to think we're one of the best countries in the world when it comes to reducing voter fraud.

 

[Tiges1229]

So why are some media saying that LNP will now win because of Clive Palmer ?

 

[Rob R]

So why are some media saying that LNP will now win because of Clive Palmer ?

Desparate to fill space in news bulletins? LNP no hope of winning and Palmer is just a small protest vote against both sides ignoring the problems excessive immigration is causing.

 

[Gough]

So why are some media saying that LNP will now win because of Clive Palmer ?

For the life of me I don't understand why Palmer is a chance, he was an abject failure as an MP first time around and yet all of a sudden he's a big chance for the Senate because he can pony up $30 mil. It's not even value for money, it only cost Turnbull $1 million to remain as PM.

 

[Tiges1229]

For the life of me I don't understand why Palmer is a chance, he was an abject failure as an MP first time around and yet all of a sudden he's a big chance for the Senate because he can pony up $30 mil. It's not even value for money, it only cost Turnbull $1 million to remain as PM.

Yeah Crazy the amount of adverts he has had here in Melbourne , been going like 5 months . Thing i find funny though is his China scare campaign advert but yet his merchandise is all made in China. lol The prick wouldn't even pay royalties to twister sister for using there song on his ads, bloke is just another low life , unbelievable what gets elected into our parliament.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

For the life of me I don't understand why Palmer is a chance, he was an abject failure as an MP first time around and yet all of a sudden he's a big chance for the Senate because he can pony up $30 mil. It's not even value for money, it only cost Turnbull $1 million to remain as PM.

The vast majority of intelligent Australians* know that Palmer is a complete idiot.

*Just not sure how readily we can include Queenslanders under that umbrella, given it’s them that would be helping him into a Senate seat.