Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[Adz]

Katter and Phelps probably would throw their support behind them if required.

Phelps is not winning her seat.

 

[Craven Morehead]

17% is still way behind the primary votes of both the ALP and LNP candidates. Like I said, the ON candidate would need to seriously challenge the number of first preference votes for one of the major party candidates to even have a shot - even if all of those who voted for the independents and Greens swung behind the ON candidate they still would fall short. If LNP preferenced ON it means little because there is no chance of the LNP candidate being eliminated before the final preference count with two candidates remaining.

What actually matters is who the ON voters preference.

You seem to know FAR more than I possibly ever could about the seat I live in and the general mood of the local population.
I'll leave you to your Sydney North Shore musing and will return to this after the election.
Because no-one predicted the huge primary swings to the SFF in the recent NSW election, did they?
Arrogant twat.

 

[Forward Press]

You seem to know FAR more than I possibly ever could about the seat I live in and the general mood of the local population.
I'll leave you to your Sydney North Shore musing and will return to this after the election.
Because no-one predicted the huge primary swings to the SFF in the recent NSW election, did they?
Arrogant twat.

I'm not even from Sydney.

Do you want to make an account bet then? If Flynn becomes One Nation after the federal election I will never post in SRP again.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Just got my postal Vote forms sent to me by the LNP halfwit for Flynn and it addresses back to Party Headquarters in Archerfield not the AEC


An example of this is from the LNP candidate for Buderim. The reply paid envelope is addressed: Buderim PVA Centre, Reply Paid 87300, ARCHERFIELD BC QLD 4108

This is clearly not the address for the Electoral Commission of Queensland. Nowhere in the correspondence or the address on the envelope is it identified that voter's personal details will be returned to a political party.

It is an age-old practice of the major parties, and while not illegal, it can be confusing to voters who think they will be dealing directly with the Electoral Commission, not a Party or candidate standing for election.

https://mysunshinecoast.com.au/news...ion-to-complimentary-bbq-on-11-november,52299

 

[Vader]

Just got my postal Vote forms sent to me by the LNP halfwit for Flynn and it addresses back to Party Headquarters in Archerfield not the AEC


An example of this is from the LNP candidate for Buderim. The reply paid envelope is addressed: Buderim PVA Centre, Reply Paid 87300, ARCHERFIELD BC QLD 4108

This is clearly not the address for the Electoral Commission of Queensland. Nowhere in the correspondence or the address on the envelope is it identified that voter's personal details will be returned to a political party.

It is an age-old practice of the major parties, and while not illegal, it can be confusing to voters who think they will be dealing directly with the Electoral Commission, not a Party or candidate standing for election.

https://mysunshinecoast.com.au/news...ion-to-complimentary-bbq-on-11-november,52299

Apparently both sides are doing it:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04...idates-are-sending-postal-vote-forms/11028154

 

[DaRick]

Apparently both sides are doing it:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04...idates-are-sending-postal-vote-forms/11028154

Yep, I received such letters from both the LNP and ALP.

 

[Craven Morehead]

I'm not even from Sydney.

Do you want to make an account bet then? If Flynn becomes One Nation after the federal election I will never post in SRP again.

An account bet? Are you 12?

I have never stated that Flynn would fall to ON, but I have given valid reasons for why it MAY!
The Labor candidate is a hairy arsed boy whose base is firmly in Gladstone. The Nats sitting member is Ken O'Dowd who needs a bib to catch his drooling and his lack of tangible action, for the constituency outside of Gladstone is very well noted and there is deep seated animosity towards him and the Nat's in general throughout.
Like I said, I'll revisit this after the election.
Not from Sydney? That's ok. Different city, same attitude.

Just got my postal Vote forms sent to me by the LNP halfwit for Flynn and it addresses back to Party Headquarters in Archerfield not the AEC


An example of this is from the LNP candidate for Buderim. The reply paid envelope is addressed: Buderim PVA Centre, Reply Paid 87300, ARCHERFIELD BC QLD 4108

This is clearly not the address for the Electoral Commission of Queensland. Nowhere in the correspondence or the address on the envelope is it identified that voter's personal details will be returned to a political party.

It is an age-old practice of the major parties, and while not illegal, it can be confusing to voters who think they will be dealing directly with the Electoral Commission, not a Party or candidate standing for election.

https://mysunshinecoast.com.au/news...ion-to-complimentary-bbq-on-11-november,52299

Got it today as well.
It's in the bin already.

 

[Forward Press]

An account bet? Are you 12?

I have never stated that Flynn would fall to ON, but I have given valid reasons for why it MAY!
The Labor candidate is a hairy arsed boy whose base is firmly in Gladstone. The Nats sitting member is Ken O'Dowd who needs a bib to catch his drooling and his lack of tangible action, for the constituency outside of Gladstone is very well noted and there is deep seated animosity towards him and the Nat's in general throughout.
Like I said, I'll revisit this after the election.
Not from Sydney? That's ok. Different city, same attitude.

Sportsbet is giving me $14 for One Nation to win the seat. Eagles were longer odds for the flag during the 2018 pre-season so I suppose it's not out of the question. I just don't see where it's coming from, though. If Pauline Hanson herself was unsuccessful in her lower house tilts, why would this One Nation candidate succeed? Was there not also disaffection with the Nats at the last election?

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Minority Liberal Government by a bee's dick and QLD/NSW results, However will be truly ****** that a coalition will hinge on one nation, UAP, Nationals. We'll be an absolute dumpster fire.

Really, record youth voter enrollment and another 70k added to the rolls spells bad news for the LNP.

We are at >96% and >88% in the youngest demographic. Higher than the postal survey.

 

[Forward Press]

Really, record youth voter enrollment and another 70k added to the rolls spells bad news for the LNP.

We are at >96% and >88% in the youngest demographic. Higher than the postal survey.

Would love the irony if Labor won on the back of the higher youth enrolment as a result of the SSM plebiscite - in the end, the RWNJ of the Lib Party indirectly caused their own downfall.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Would love the irony if Labor won on the back of the higher youth enrolment as a result of the SSM plebiscite - in the end, the RWNJ of the Lib Party indirectly caused their own downfall.

Now at 10.6% of the total vote for all ages is comprised of 18-24 year olds, with 1.69 million voters and 88.8% of that demographic on the books. A number never previously considered realistic by the AEC.

It's mostly down to the SSM but there has been a big surge again just before this election, which is unusual.

If I was to guess, anger at the LNP and climate policy would be the major reasons. The recent climate protests may have helped motivate continued enrollment, which would more fully explain the LNPs hissy fit about "activists" leading da youf astray.

 

[Craven Morehead]

Sportsbet is giving me $14 for One Nation to win the seat. Eagles were longer odds for the flag during the 2018 pre-season so I suppose it's not out of the question. I just don't see where it's coming from, though. If Pauline Hanson herself was unsuccessful in her lower house tilts, why would this One Nation candidate succeed? Was there not also disaffection with the Nats at the last election?

In my 54 years I have NEVER seen such anger towards the Nats. And it is very well justified.
These people will NOT vote Labor, so they'll either draw large penises on the ballot, (which bush people won't do), or vote ON, because there is no other viable candidate in the electorate.
Like I said, Sharon Lohse was quite bullish.

 

[Pessimistic]

Now at 10.6% of the total vote for all ages is comprised of 18-24 year olds, with 1.69 million voters and 88.8% of that demographic on the books. A number never previously considered realistic by the AEC.

It's mostly down to the SSM but there has been a big surge again just before this election, which is unusual.

If I was to guess, anger at the LNP and climate policy would be the major reasons. The recent climate protests may have helped motivate continued enrollment, which would more fully explain the LNPs hissy fit about "activists" leading da youf astray.

And some are guessing that age group doesn’t get adequately polled

 

[Pessimistic]

In my 54 years I have NEVER seen such anger towards the Nats. And it is very well justified.
These people will NOT vote Labor, so they'll either draw large penises on the ballot, (which bush people won't do), or vote ON, because there is no other viable candidate in the electorate.
Like I said, Sharon Lohse was quite bullish.

SFF missing a great chance? Nats numbers held up in the vic state election btw

 

[NSWCROW]

Would love the irony if Labor won on the back of the higher youth enrolment as a result of the SSM plebiscite - in the end, the RWNJ of the Lib Party indirectly caused their own downfall.

tony abbotts legacy

 

[NSWCROW]

SFF missing a great chance? Nats numbers held up in the vic state election btw

Think i read they've only got enough funds to run 1 candidate.

 

[Badesumofu]

These people will NOT vote Labor,

Then they have no meaningful way of making themselves heard and will likely continue to be shat on from a great height. As things stand in Australia it's a binary choice - if you flat out refuse to support one side then the other has no reason to care that much what you think anyway. That can be okay if your own side is looking after you. It seems that's not the case with farmers and the Coalition, though.

 

[Forward Press]

In my 54 years I have NEVER seen such anger towards the Nats. And it is very well justified.
These people will NOT vote Labor, so they'll either draw large penises on the ballot, (which bush people won't do), or vote ON, because there is no other viable candidate in the electorate.
Like I said, Sharon Lohse was quite bullish.

If the driver for the ON vote is disaffected LNP voters, then there needs to be quite simply more of them than those that put LNP number 1 still.

Looking at the last election results, the 2PP was 51-49 and that was with Labor's primary vote being 4% less than the LNP's. It suggests that the preference split from the 17% that voted ON was actually roughly even, with slightly more voting LNP (assuming the KAP voters went LNP and the Greens voters went ALP as their 2PP, but their combined support is tiny anyway, far less than ON).

Like I said, I just don't see it happening. Needs a huge unprecedented swing from both the ALP and LNP voters flocking towards ON - instead of UAP (who would presumably hoover up many former KAP voters) or Greens (who would take many ALP voters). Sorry, I take your word for it that Sharon Lohse is a popular local candidate and I know she did well in Callide in 2017 to make it to the final preference count but odds are well against her.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

And some are guessing that age group doesn’t get adequately polled

Most polls are conducted on landlines.

What 18-24 year old answers the house phone, let alone has their own landline at a rental.

 

[RW]

I don't think the Coalition has any chance of winning the lower house, too many seats to defend, let alone win back seats that they lost.

The make up of the Senate will be very very interesting though, but hard to predict at this stage.

 

[Forward Press]

And some are guessing that age group doesn’t get adequately polled

Polls tend to tilt towards those with landlines and time on their hands. Does Newspoll conduct polls via mobile?

 

[Craven Morehead]

SFF missing a great chance? Nats numbers held up in the vic state election btw

Without doubt they are, and they would get my vote.
But they spent it all in the NSW election.

 

[pjcrows]

Tip Labor to win by 5-8 seats but the Senate could pose problems for the new Shorten government trying to get its legislation through parliament.

Also Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott to lose their seats.

If Dutton and Abbott lose their seats then Labor will be winning by more than that.

 

[Tiges1229]

Interesting to know whom 18-24 year olds will vote for .

 

[B4Bear]

Interesting to know whom 18-24 year olds will vote for .

75% at least will break left.
Most for the greens and preferences to the ALP.

Climate change, wages and housing are big drivers for them.
And a lot of them will remember how
Conservatives behaved in the SSM plebiscite.


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