In my 54 years I have NEVER seen such anger towards the Nats. And it is very well justified.
These people will NOT vote Labor, so they'll either draw large penises on the ballot, (which bush people won't do), or vote ON, because there is no other viable candidate in the electorate.
Like I said, Sharon Lohse was quite bullish.
If the driver for the ON vote is disaffected LNP voters, then there needs to be quite simply more of them than those that put LNP number 1 still.
Looking at the last election results, the 2PP was 51-49 and that was with Labor's primary vote being 4% less than the LNP's. It suggests that the preference split from the 17% that voted ON was actually roughly even, with slightly more voting LNP (assuming the KAP voters went LNP and the Greens voters went ALP as their 2PP, but their combined support is tiny anyway, far less than ON).
Like I said, I just don't see it happening. Needs a huge unprecedented swing from both the ALP and LNP voters flocking towards ON - instead of UAP (who would presumably hoover up many former KAP voters) or Greens (who would take many ALP voters). Sorry, I take your word for it that Sharon Lohse is a popular local candidate and I know she did well in Callide in 2017 to make it to the final preference count but odds are well against her.