Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[GreyCrow]

Palmer can afford $30m to run but cant pay his nickel workers

Thats the line both major parties should be running with

 

[Baltimore Jack]

So why are some media saying that LNP will now win because of Clive Palmer ?

Who is saying that?

 

[Tiges1229]

Who is saying that?

Think it was on news.com.au website , they said with LNP doing these preferences its a game changer etc for LNP.

 

[Vader]

Think it was on news.com.au website , they said with LNP doing these preferences its a game changer etc for LNP.

Rupert's spin-doctors hard at work then...

 

[GreyCrow]

Rupert's spin-doctors hard at work then...

To an extent, as noted earlier its filler content. Its like listening to Derwayne pumping up a goal when your team is 10 goals down. Because football and politics dont sell so well when the lead is so big

 

[Jascave]

To an extent, as noted earlier its filler content. Its like listening to Derwayne pumping up a goal when your team is 10 goals down. Because football and politics dont sell so well when the lead is so big

Expect to see the Sky News team spin the results (ie Scott Morrison has saved the furniture when in reality Labor won by a landslide) on election night.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Badesumofu]

Senate preferences aren’t what they used to be. Palmer would also still need to get above LNP#3 to actually get any (if the LNP elect 3 Senators in QLD then there probably aren’t any unexhausted votes left for preferences to flow from).

To what extent this helps Liberals in the lower house remains to be seen. Most UAP first preference votes are coming from LNP-leaning voters anyway, so then the question is how many Labor leaning UAP voters are there, and how likely are they to put the LNP above Labor just because Clive’s HTV cards tell them to.

Then you have to factor in potential damage to UAP by being seen as too aligned with the Libs.

All in all I think the likely effect of this preference deal is probably not very much.

 

[Pessimistic]

news.com and sky is desperate for a Hewson birthday cake moment

 

[Bomberboyokay]

So why are some media saying that LNP will now win because of Clive Palmer ?

Limit on Greens stories as the owners get stroppy.

Coverage Greens get is shocking for the third largest party.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

For the life of me I don't understand why Palmer is a chance, he was an abject failure as an MP first time around and yet all of a sudden he's a big chance for the Senate because he can pony up $30 mil. It's not even value for money, it only cost Turnbull $1 million to remain as PM.

Palmer has an appeal to people who think advertising doesn't work on them.

 

[Tiges1229]

To an extent, as noted earlier its filler content. Its like listening to Derwayne pumping up a goal when your team is 10 goals down. Because football and politics dont sell so well when the lead is so big

“ From the paint” lol worst commentator in the history of Football .

 

[QuietB]

news.com and sky is desperate for a Hewson birthday cake moment

They already had it their cake moment in the SSM debate. Didn’t go how the LNP would like sure, but cakes are done.

Fundamentally this is their whole problem - not a single new idea amongst the lot of them.

 

[Pessimistic]

Strategy seems to be everyone liking Scomo your embarrassing but likable uncle.

How fitting the born to rule crowd have come to this.

 

[NSWCROW]

Limit on Greens stories as the owners get stroppy.

Coverage Greens get is shocking for the third largest party.

Yep
murdoch knows where the threat lies

 

[Jpw22511]

Sportsbet has my seat $6 for ONP to win.... perhaps Nationals to be reamed at election.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Yeah Crazy the amount of adverts he has had here in Melbourne , been going like 5 months . Thing i find funny though is his China scare campaign advert but yet his merchandise is all made in China. lol The prick wouldn't even pay royalties to twister sister for using there song on his ads, bloke is just another low life , unbelievable what gets elected into our parliament.

The bit I find funny is his obvious lack of knowledge of Melbourne. He's clearly just bought the biggest pieces of ad space he can find without even consulting the candidates he has down here.

He's got one on the corner of Alexandria Parade and Nicholson St in Fitzroy, and he's got one on High St in the southern part of Northcote.

If you drew a circle with a 1km radius around each of those billboards, I doubt you'd find more progressive leaning areas in all of Australia.

(The one in Northcote has been graffitied - someone painted over the "G" and "R", and the bottom of the "E". So "MAKE AUSTRALIA GREAT" becomes "MAKE AUSTRALIA FAT." Being a fat bastard myself, I'm not big on the fat shaming. But being a hypocrite, I did laugh the first time I saw it.)

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Let's hope this compulsory voting thing works on them.

Young people might be enrolling more for a couple reasons. 1) Coalition Government is ****ing them, and 2) Social media is telling them how they're specifically getting ****ed. 1999 this stuff was limited to 'boring' newspapers, charisma-free ABC, and presented in a way that's laughably diplomatic compared to now.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

That would be best case for the LNP. Dutton and Abbott gone, hopefully Turnbull shuts up, LNP has a chance to reform and a margin they can make up.

Liberals won't reform. Far right took over and they're going nowhere. Labor will get enough baggage after 6-9 years and the Liberals will pick a trim 38-year-old as leader.

 

[Pessimistic]

Liberals won't reform. Far right took over and they're going nowhere. Labor will get enough baggage after 6-9 years and the Liberals will pick a trim 38-year-old as leader.

It’s a pity, but I think you are right. The drys taking over started in that period of opposition before Howard got elected

 

[Jascave]

Sportsbet has my seat $6 for ONP to win.... perhaps Nationals to be reamed at election.

Had a look at the betting market for the Victorian seat of Goldstein (which is where I live), and it has the Coalition on $1.12, Labor is at $6 and the Greens rank outsiders at $41.


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[Baltimore Jack]

“While Scott Morrison desperately sprints around the country trying to make up ground, he's already in minority government. He's actually got to win a seat to be back in the game. There are 20 LNP seats under 5%, eight of them are in Queensland” - Kerry O’Brien

 

[Pessimistic]

Had a look at the betting market for the Victorian seat of Goldstein (which is where I live), and it has the Coalition on $1.12, Labor is at $6 and the Greens rank outsiders at $41.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nationals held up well in Victorian election. Maybe a few should be contesting liberal seats here

 

[eastfreo75]

Just some thoughts.
1.Negative gearing, Franking credits and the fake news of a death tax will push elderly voters against the Red team.
2. Labor sitting on the fence on the Adani mine will lose votes in Queensland to the Blue team and in Victoria will lose votes to the Green team.
3. The Green Adani car rally will get them more votes down south but at the same time Queenslanders won't like southerners telling them what to do. One nation, Clive Palmer and the Blue team will do well in Qld.
4. The recent terror attacks usually turn people to the Blue team.
5. Bill Shorten is pretty crap when off script and Morrison is much better.
6. Liberals leadership crisis will be a factor.
7. The Blue team lack of message for years will hurt.

For me, it will be a Blue team minority government.

 

[Rob R]

Just some thoughts.
1.Negative gearing, Franking credits and the fake news of a death tax will push elderly voters against the Red team.
2. Labor sitting on the fence on the Adani mine will lose votes in Queensland to the Blue team and in Victoria will lose votes to the Green team.
3. The Green Adani car rally will get them more votes down south but at the same time Queenslanders won't like southerners telling them what to do. One nation, Clive Palmer and the Blue team will do well in Qld.
4. The recent terror attacks usually turn people to the Blue team.
5. Bill Shorten is pretty crap when off script and Morrison is much better.
6. Liberals leadership crisis will be a factor.
7. The Blue team lack of message for years will hurt.

For me, it will be a Blue team minority government.

Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.

 

[Gough]

Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.

Tony Abbott was elected on the back of a six page brochure outlining a "plan" with a few bullet point ideas and some nice pictures. Do you really think the electorate is that fussy about costings and minutiae of policy? History suggests not.