Mega Thread 2012 AFL Fixture - all comments re the fixture in this thread pls

[The Falcon Strike]

Try playing carlton, collingwood, geelong and westcoast in the first 5 rounds.

You've got the entire top 8 in the first 10 rounds - that's tough

 

[FRUMPY]

Hawthron only travelling 3 times is a total shock. I cant ebelive the AFL includes 'home' games they sold as travel. Pretty poor in my opinion

 

[mark73]

Handouts now come in new flavours

Aww diddums, I didn't actually notice, do we get to play Hawthorn twice next year?

 

[hawkman]

Have they posted an excel copy of the fixtures yet, like they have for the last few years?

There is on The Age's website

 

[W.C. Fry]

Over saturated saturday with 5 games on a normal weekend. Would really have liked some fridays with 2 games - 1 earlier in the east and one later in Perth. Or even the occasional thursday or monday night games.

Hawthorn travelling only 3 times is a joke.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Hawthron only travelling 3 times is a total shock. I cant ebelive the AFL includes 'home' games they sold as travel. Pretty poor in my opinion

Clueless. We play West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood & Sydney twice. The Age rated it as the 2nd hardest draw in 2012. Swap draws?

 

[Tas]

Re: So North got GWS and Gold Coast Twice Each

I am actually looking forward to that round 1 game, it was one of the best games I watched for the year (despite the result going the wrong way). Both sides will be aiming for finals, match of the round with Hawks v Collingwood.

Yeah, i think both clubs have been in a similar position in terms of development in recent years and we seem to be fairly even in terms of strength across the field, in different areas which makes the contest interesting. I honestly can't recall the last time we had a poor standard match against eachother, they tend to be pretty good.

Hird has already done a pretty good job in terms of toughening up the Bombers, a very different team to the one under Knights.

 

[Adz]

The Hawks have the dream draw and anything other than top 2 finish and Clarkson should get the axe.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

The Hawks have the dream draw and anything other than top 2 finish and Clarkson should get the axe.

Yep. Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong & Sydney twice. As I said before, The Age rated it as the second hardest draw in the comp for 2012.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/2012-afl-fixture-live-blog-20111028-1mmsj.html

You really have trouble understanding basic things eh.

 

[WCE_phil]

Eagles with a tough draw. 6-7 six day breaks, start and finish away from home, dont play any of gc,port of gws twice, travel more than any other team including 2 trips to qld and 1 to tasmania.

 

[Rourke]

Here's the order from toughest to easiest compared to their possible range of second opponents:

      [B]CLUB[/B]   [B]AvgPts[/B]  [B]Difficulty[/B]
       Coll     64   98.4%
       Haw      57   82.6%
       Geel     53   76.2%
       WCE      49   65.7%
       Syd      47   58.0%
       W.Bd     46   57.3%
       Carl     45   56.8%
       Ess      45   54.5%
       P.A.     43   47.7%
       B.L.     42   45.5%
       St.K     38   42.7%
       Rich     37   41.3%
       Freo     35   37.8%
       N.M.     32   32.9%
       GWS      33   24.6%
       Melb     27   23.8%
       Adel     27   22.1%
       G.C.     27   16.7%

I'll tackle travel next.

Hawthron only travelling 3 times is a total shock. I cant ebelive the AFL includes 'home' games they sold as travel. Pretty poor in my opinion

Yep, my home advantage analysis says that really Hawthorn is the only team that got a significant bias, positive or negative. After treating the Cairns/Darwin matches as neutral (maybe generous to Gold Coast), the only teams with an imbalance of more than one game in hosting or travelling to an other-state side are:

• Hawthorn +5 (8-3)
• Gold Coast +2 (10-8)
• Geelong -2 (4-6) but they have HGA against three Vic sides which isn't counted here
• St Kilda -2 (4-6)

North & Port are +1 although North's HGA in Hobart is yet to be established; Collingwood, Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon and Richmond all host one fewer interstate team than they travel to. Melbourne and the other non-Vics got zero.

In summary, lay the Pies for the minor premiership.

 

[manicmagpie]

Re: Draw Difficulty

Just taking into account who each team plays twice, this fixture is a massive departure from the usual evenness, and obviously deliberately so. I've been analysing these draws for the past decade and most years I can confidently say that the choice of opponent won't cost or benefit anyone more than 3-4 premiership points (on average). It has also sometimes been slightly biased in favour of the top teams, though not significantly. Not so this year.

Collingwood play last year's 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th twice. Those teams scored 320 premiership points between them, only four short of the theoretical worst draw Collingwood could have had (with Saints or Swans instead of Bombers). On the other hand their theoretical best draw would be 68 points (GWS plus 2011's bottom four).

Here's the order from toughest to easiest compared to their possible range of second opponents:

      [B]CLUB[/B]   [B]AvgPts[/B]  [B]Difficulty[/B]
       Coll     64   98.4%
       Haw      57   82.6%
       Geel     53   76.2%
       WCE      49   65.7%
       Syd      47   58.0%
       W.Bd     46   57.3%
       Carl     45   56.8%
       Ess      45   54.5%
       P.A.     43   47.7%
       B.L.     42   45.5%
       St.K     38   42.7%
       Rich     37   41.3%
       Freo     35   37.8%
       N.M.     32   32.9%
       GWS      33   24.6%
       Melb     27   23.8%
       Adel     27   22.1%
       G.C.     27   16.7%

I'll tackle travel next.

Good stats. I've done similar analysis of the strengths of the previous 4 years of fixtures based on ladder positions rather than premiership points.

It's interesting to note the difference between the actual toughness (based on the end of year ladder) and the expected toughness (based on the previous year's ladder positions).

I don't have my full results with me here at work but what was very interesting to note was that Collingwood and Sydney, two teams often accused of being favoured by the AFL were, along with Essendon, the teams who had received the toughest draws over that period.

However, no amount of facts will ever stop people complaining that Collingwood get a soft draw year after year.

 

[Jesus Baulks]

Clueless. We play West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood & Sydney twice. The Age rated it as the 2nd hardest draw in 2012. Swap draws?

How is any of that relevant to the point he was making about your interstate trips to your home ground in Tasmania?

 

[doppleganger]

Yep. Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong & Sydney twice. As I said before, The Age rated it as the second hardest draw in the comp for 2012.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/2012-afl-fixture-live-blog-20111028-1mmsj.html

You really have trouble understanding basic things eh.

RC included the 4 Tassie games as part of the road trips.

Discount those and the Hawks draw aint the second hardest anymore.

 

[Pessimistic]

How is any of that relevant to the point he was making about your interstate trips to your home ground in Tasmania?

Out travels outside vic-tas balance out with ANYONE over the years

 

[Shinboner Schem]

Because, believe it or not, Foxtel don't want to get lumped with all the 'shit' matches.

Believe it or not, Foxtel get lumped with having to show EVERY match LIVE

 

[VoR]

There is on The Age's website

Awesome, thanks dude.

I love me spreadsheets

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

RC included the 4 Tassie games as part of the road trips.

Discount those and the Hawks draw aint the second hardest anymore.

Sigh. I don't know why I bother

"Hawthorn & North Melbourne games in Tasmania not included". It explicitly states that where he talks about raod trips. I mean ffs, really...... Read it & understand it before you post about it.

 

[doppleganger]

Sigh. I don't know why I bother

"Hawthorn & North Melbourne games in Tasmania not included". It explicitly states that where he talks about raod trips. I mean ffs, really...... Read it & understand it before you post about it.

The Hawthorn and North not include is in the Hoem state team v interstate team section.

Road Trips - 2 points for long haul, 1 point for short

Hawthorn have 8 points

WC at Patersons = 2
Port at AAMI = 1
Sydney at AAMI = 1

Where do you get the other 4 points from?? (4 games in Tassie!)

 

[LemmingMaster]

Believe it or not, Foxtel get lumped with having to show EVERY match LIVE

It gets worse, they actually paid good $$$$ for this bad luck!

 

[Pancakes]

wow North and Hawthorn have been really looked after this time around.

Tigers is pretty good as well, sure a tough start, but after round 10 they only play two of last years finalists, and none of the top four.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

The Hawthorn and North not include is in the Hoem state team v interstate team section.

Road Trips - 2 points for long haul, 1 point for short

Hawthorn have 8 points

WC at Patersons = 2
Port at AAMI = 1
Sydney at AAMI = 1

Where do you get the other 4 points from?? (4 games in Tassie!)

Ok I think I you owe you an apology for jumpng the gun

It's still a mighty tough draw without those points. The Top 4 from last year have the hardest draws by a fair bit.

 

[slimdusty4]

Yes, they haven't been a Big 4 club for a long time. This insult just confirms it.

donk, i like you, but we arent doing this, haha. big four is the big four id the big four... end of discussion, your hawks will never be there.

But Collingwood always gets the easiest draw, wah wah wah!

so your going to perth? has bucks sent someone over to figue out how perth has changed in the last decade, you have historically had easy draws... i mean seriously, how many teams above you do you have to play huh? huh?

Collingwood travel 5 times, Hawthorn 3.

really? firstly its 4 away trips, and secondly they get on 16 flights next year... thats 8 trips interstate.

RC included the 4 Tassie games as part of the road trips.
Discount those and the Hawks draw aint the second hardest anymore.

except you cant "discount" them, they still have to travel. they play 8 games out of victoria, so it definitely evens out.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

wow North and Hawthorn have been really looked after this time around.

Tigers is pretty good as well, sure a tough start, but after round 10 they only play two of last years finalists, and none of the top four.

How have we been looked after? We play West Coast, Collingwood, Geelong & Sydney twice.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

How have we been looked after? We play West Coast, Collingwood, Geelong & Sydney twice.

With all due respect to West Coast, I'd rather play them here and there, rather than just once over there. As for Sydney, you'll be playing them at the MCG or in Tassie, right? Not exactly happy hunting grounds for them in recent years.