Training 2017/2018 Pre-season Thread

[1970crow]

Actually, I didn't say that Cameron wasn't a best 22 player, but carry on...

Statistics don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. The reality is that Doedee will be flying in the face of history if he makes it at the AFL level. Can he do it? Maybe. I certainly hope he does. Will he? History says "almost certainly not".

** What I did say was that there would only be room for 2 of Milera/CC/Betts in the team. I predicted that Milera would eventually force CC out of the team. Given that CC is no longer at Adelaide, and Milera's lack of development in 2017, we'll never know if I was right or wrong.

Given his late start to the game and small number of games at u18 level, anyone who thought he was a likely early goer has rocks in their head. 2 interrupted preseasons from 2 made it near impossible for him. Yes, it's rare for a club to take a partial project player at 17, but that just shows how highly they rate his attributes. I'm still very excited about this guy, the fact he hasn't played an AFL game yet doesn't concern me at all.

 

[Vader]

Given his late start to the game and small number of games at u18 level, anyone who thought he was a likely early goer has rocks in their head. 2 interrupted preseasons from 2 made it near impossible for him. Yes, it's rare for a club to take a partial project player at 17, but that just shows how highly they rate his attributes. I'm still very excited about this guy, the fact he hasn't played an AFL game yet doesn't concern me at all.

I don't think anyone was surprised that he didn't get a game in his first season. They had opportunities to select him in 2017, but chose to select Otten & Keath ahead of him.

I'm not saying that there aren't extenuating circumstances. I'm not saying that he won't make it. All I'm saying is that it's statistically unlikely, given that there are almost no 1st round draftees who have succeeded after not playing a single AFL game during their first 2 years.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Actually, I didn't say that Cameron wasn't a best 22 player, but carry on...

Statistics don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. The reality is that Doedee will be flying in the face of history if he makes it at the AFL level. Can he do it? Maybe. I certainly hope he does. Will he? History says "almost certainly not".

Milera could yet become elite, or he could end up on the scrapheap, or he could end up somewhere in between. Only time, and his ability to overcome his deficiencies, will tell.

** What I did say was that there would only be room for 2 of Milera/CC/Betts in the team. I predicted that Milera would eventually force CC out of the team. Given that CC is no longer at Adelaide, and Milera's lack of development in 2017, we'll never know if I was right or wrong.

Oh the good old days when we could search BF longer than 200 posts

The advent of Draftees making an immediate AFL impact is a recent trend ......historically though, you are incorrect, as some of the best AFL players ever rarely played AFL / VFL in their early years .......so when did this become a rule for success ?

Milera could yet become elite, or he could end up on the scrapheap, or he could end up somewhere in between.

Vader, this is classic BF speak ......you can't be wrong, whichever way Milera turns out ...i hate it when people want an each way bet, put your proverbials on the line & make a definitive statement

You did so with Charlie .....now you're trying to re-write history on your position with players

 

[WaynesWorld19]

It's not dumb, or rubbish. It's fact.

It's only you that falls back on Stats to judge football .....this is not Baseball

By all means use stats to review a players history in the game after he has a solid block of seasons ......by all means use stats to, as i do, to play Supercoach

But using stats on players yet to debut, or freshly in the game .....i'm sorry, is just plain rubbish

This reminds me of the weekly anguish i have with Accountants, who try & predict business success / failure off numbers

 

[Vader]

Vader, this is classic BF speak ......you can't be wrong, whichever way Milera turns out ...i hate it when people want an each way bet, put your proverbials on the line & make a definitive statement

I'm not the one who is trying to pin him down - you are.

I have said that he has some very good strengths (decision making, skills), but also some glaring weaknesses (softness, inability to win his own ball, going MIA for long periods during games). Those weaknesses saw him dumped from the senior team last year. They are not trivial, and not easily overcome. If he can improve in those areas, then he could become a very good player. If not, he could end up on the scrapheap. Both possibilities are still viable, and it's foolish to exclude one or the other - as you have done with your claim that there's "ZERO" chance of him not making it.

There is nothing clear cut about the futures of either Milera or Doedee.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I don't think anyone was surprised that he didn't get a game in his first season. They had opportunities to select him in 2017, but chose to select Otten & Keath ahead of him.

I'm not saying that there aren't extenuating circumstances. I'm not saying that he won't make it. All I'm saying is that it's statistically unlikely, given that there are almost no 1st round draftees who have succeeded after not playing a single AFL game during their first 2 years.

But statistics don't allow for extenuating circumstances? .......Paul Ahern has two Knee Reco's in his first two yearsn, as a top 10 draftee ......your statistical dependence indicates, because he has debuted in the first two years .....he's unlikely to make it

Statistics don't allow for a draftee to a top club v a bottom club, that plays youth as part of their development .......fact is Statistics lie & many a good coach has said same

 

[Vader]

It's only you that falls back on Stats to judge football .....this is not Baseball

By all means use stats to review a players history in the game after he has a solid block of seasons ......by all means use stats to, as i do, to play Supercoach

But using stats on players yet to debut, or freshly in the game .....i'm sorry, is just plain rubbish

This reminds me of the weekly anguish i have with Accountants, who try & predict business success / failure off numbers

I'm not judging anything. I'm just saying that this is what the statistics say.

It's not my fault that you've had a massive reading comprehension failure, completely ignoring what I wrote:

That's not me supporting Marty, nor is it me writing Doedee off before he's played a game. It's just what the historical statistics, across the entire AFL, says is likely to happen. I liked what I saw of him in the few SANFL games I did see televised, and Lever's departure means that there is a vacancy which he could potentially fill. I really do hope he makes it, but it's far from certain that he will.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm not the one who is trying to pin him down - you are.

I have said that he has some very good strengths (decision making, skills), but also some glaring weaknesses (softness, inability to win his own ball, going MIA for long periods during games). Those weaknesses saw him dumped from the senior team last year. They are not trivial, and not easily overcome. If he can improve in those areas, then he could become a very good player. If not, he could end up on the scrapheap. Both possibilities are still viable, and it's foolish to exclude one or the other - as you have done with your claim that there's "ZERO" chance of him not making it.

There is nothing clear cut about the futures of either Milera or Doedee.

At least i'm definitive in my thoughts on Milera .......with Doedee, whilst he looks good at U18 & SANFL level ...i'm not prepared to make the same statement ....yet

 

[Vader]

But statistics don't allow for extenuating circumstances? .......Paul Ahern has two Knee Reco's in his first two yearsn, as a top 10 draftee ......your statistical dependence indicates, because he has debuted in the first two years .....he's unlikely to make it

Statistics don't allow for a draftee to a top club v a bottom club, that plays youth as part of their development .......fact is Statistics lie & many a good coach has said same

Statistics go back multiple years, and include clubs at both ends of the ladder. There are almost no 1st round draftees who have played 100+ games, having failed to debut in their first 2 seasons. Those are the facts. That's what the statistics tell us.

I really hope that Doedee does make it. I liked what I saw of him last year, in the few SANFL games I did see on TV. If he does, he will become a statistical anomaly, in much the same way as Boomer Harvey and Dustin Fletcher are statistical anomalies.

 

[1970crow]

I don't think anyone was surprised that he didn't get a game in his first season. They had opportunities to select him in 2017, but chose to select Otten & Keath ahead of him.

I'm not saying that there aren't extenuating circumstances. I'm not saying that he won't make it. All I'm saying is that it's statistically unlikely, given that there are almost no 1st round draftees who have succeeded after not playing a single AFL game during their first 2 years.

Filter that for project types and then again for 2 interrupted preseasons and then for games won by the club. He's not in the vast majority that has played since they were 10 or less. His first preseason was heavily restricted with knee tendinitis (from memory) and his second the same I think. Of the total number, there'd be few with a lead in similar to his, so your sample size is too small to be relevant.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Statistics go back multiple years, and include clubs at both ends of the ladder. There are almost no 1st round draftees who have played 100+ games, having failed to debut in their first 2 seasons. Those are the facts. That's what the statistics tell us.

I really hope that Doedee does make it. I liked what I saw of him last year, in the few SANFL games I did see on TV. If he does, he will become a statistical anomaly, in much the same way as Boomer Harvey and Dustin Fletcher are statistical anomalies.

Not a large enough sample ......and they can't be accurate, as the subjects are tainted with all sorts of variances, as i've already outlined

Now if you want to draw comparisons of Draftees over the first couple of years, taking the following into account:
1. Clubs with a similar banding of ladder position

2. Injuries to Draftees

3. KPP v Midfielders v Small frwards/ defenders

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Filter that for project types and then again for 2 interrupted preseasons and then for games won by the club. He's not in the vast majority that has played since they were 10 or less. His first preseason was heavily restricted with knee tendinitis (from memory) and his second the same I think. Of the total number, there'd be few with a lead in similar to his, so your sample size is too small to be relevant.

This is exactly what i'm saying ......a statistician would disagree ...a Market Researcher would agree with you

 

[Vader]

At least i'm definitive in my thoughts on Milera .......with Doedee, whilst he looks good at U18 & SANFL level ...i'm not prepared to make the same statement ....yet

I try to take a balanced view of all players, looking at both their strengths and weaknesses.

Many posters only look at strengths, particularly when it comes to younger players. They don't look at the player's weaknesses. I call it "shinytoyitis". If/when they do see the weaknesses, they are too willing to wish them away, assuming that the player will automatically improve or "grow out of them". Sometimes the player does improve these areas -a lot of the time they don't. Your perspective on Milera is an example of this.

There seems to be a change over point, somewhere in the 50-70 game range, at which point the posters start to realise that the player's flaws aren't going away, and start to take a more balanced view of them. Examples of this are the changing attitudes towards Atkins & Cameron in the last 12 months.

There's another change over point, around the time when the player hits 26-27 years of age. At this point their weaknesses become glaring, unless the player is elite, with strengths that massively outweigh the weaknesses. Think Mackay, and VB before him.

Milera clearly has strengths in his disposal and decision making. There's a lot to like there. However, he also has some major weaknesses, with his inability to win his own ball and his habit of drifting out of the game for long periods of time. If he can overcome those weaknesses, then his strengths give him the potential to be a very, very good player indeed. If he can't, then his career could be relatively short. Only time will tell whether or not he is able to fix his deficiencies.

 

[Vader]

Not a large enough sample ......and they can't be accurate, as the subjects are tainted with all sorts of variances, as i've already outlined

Now if you want to draw comparisons of Draftees over the first couple of years, taking the following into account:
1. Clubs with a similar banding of ladder position

2. Injuries to Draftees

3. KPP v Midfielders v Small frwards/ defenders

I'm sure that many (most) of the 1st round draftees who didn't debut after 2 years had/have similar stories. Maybe it's being a "project" player, maybe it's injuries, maybe it's both. The end result is the same. If they haven't debuted after 2 years, the chances of them reaching 100 games is less than 5%.

I really, really, want Doedee to buck the trend.

 

[Vader]

It's only you that falls back on Stats to judge football .....this is not Baseball

By all means use stats to review a players history in the game after he has a solid block of seasons ......by all means use stats to, as i do, to play Supercoach

But using stats on players yet to debut, or freshly in the game .....i'm sorry, is just plain rubbish

This reminds me of the weekly anguish i have with Accountants, who try & predict business success / failure off numbers

I'm not drawing statistical conclusions about his game. I'm drawing statistical conclusions from the history of the AFL game itself, across the entire competition. This is absolutely valid, and to argue otherwise is nothing more than a denial of reality.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I try to take a balanced view of all players, looking at both their strengths and weaknesses.

Many posters only look at strengths, particularly when it comes to younger players. They don't look at the player's weaknesses. I call it "shinytoyitis". If/when they do see the weaknesses, they are too willing to wish them away, assuming that the player will automatically improve or "grow out of them". Sometimes the player does improve these areas -a lot of the time they don't. Your perspective on Milera is an example of this.

There seems to be a change over point, somewhere in the 50-70 game range, at which point the posters start to realise that the player's flaws aren't going away, and start to take a more balanced view of them. Examples of this are the changing attitudes towards Atkins & Cameron in the last 12 months.

There's another change over point, around the time when the player hits 26-27 years of age. At this point their weaknesses become glaring, unless the player is elite, with strengths that massively outweigh the weaknesses. Think Mackay, and VB before him.

Milera clearly has strengths in his disposal and decision making. There's a lot to like there. However, he also has some major weaknesses, with his inability to win his own ball and his habit of drifting out of the game for long periods of time. If he can overcome those weaknesses, then his strengths give him the potential to be a very, very good player indeed. If he can't, then his career could be relatively short. Only time will tell whether or not he is able to fix his deficiencies.

So good thoughts .....sometimes though the good outweighs the bad ...in the case of Dangerfield, whose kicking at times has been woeful ....and it's only in 2017 that football commentators have started to discuss this

I look for traits that have historically been associated with great players:
1. Good hands ....no fumbling
2. Time & space ...players ability to display their skills, without apparent pressure
3 Decision making ...that footy IQ
4. A competitive spirit

I've said b4 .....what you're saying about Milera, could equally have been said of Chis Judd at the same age .....was very much the outside receiver due to his break-away pace

You also have to factor in ....which Statistics do not capture ....is the role an AFL coach has a young player playing as part of their development & sometimes protection of a still maturing body

 

[ad victoriam]

Watch some SANFL games then. There’s plenty to get excited about there.

That the problem a lot have only seen a few SANFL and hardly any live, And are basing the knowledge of players from 2nd hand storyies or whether the team won or lost.

 

[Vader]

So good thoughts .....sometimes though the good outweighs the bad ...in the case of Dangerfield, whose kicking at times has been woeful ....and it's only in 2017 that football commentators have started to discuss this

I look for traits that have historically been associated with great players:
1. Good hands ....no fumbling
2. Time & space ...players ability to display their skills, without apparent pressure
3 Decision making ...that footy IQ
4. A competitive spirit

I've said b4 .....what you're saying about Milera, could equally have been said of Chis Judd at the same age .....was very much the outside receiver due to his break-away pace

You also have to factor in ....which Statistics do not capture ....is the role an AFL coach has a young player playing as part of their development & sometimes protection of a still maturing body

Thank you for proving my point.. highlighting the strengths, wishing away the weaknesses.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm sure that many (most) of the 1st round draftees who didn't debut after 2 years had/have similar stories. Maybe it's being a "project" player, maybe it's injuries, maybe it's both. The end result is the same. If they haven't debuted after 2 years, the chances of them reaching 100 games is less than 5%.

I really, really, want Doedee to buck the trend.

Some clubs take draftees off the back of great final U18 seasons .....sometimes these players have just had great final years, that can't be replicated or improved upon at AFL level

The Crows have recently taken a big picture view (some other clubs do too) .....of looking at the players attributes that i've outlined & try and predict a development curve

So which is better for drafting

The great final U18 year player ( Watts, Schacke) .....or the attributes player with a good development projection (Sloane, Knight ...)

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm not drawing statistical conclusions about his game. I'm drawing statistical conclusions from the history of the AFL game itself, across the entire competition. This is absolutely valid, and to argue otherwise is nothing more than a denial of reality.

Never have, nor will, use statistics to judge a players future in the game

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Thank you for proving my point.. highlighting the strengths, wishing away the weaknesses.

No-one's wishing away a players weakness ....but try and name an AFL Player that does not have a weakness ....impossible, as there's no perfect player

 

[1970crow]

I'm sure that many (most) of the 1st round draftees who didn't debut after 2 years had/have similar stories. Maybe it's being a "project" player, maybe it's injuries, maybe it's both. The end result is the same. If they haven't debuted after 2 years, the chances of them reaching 100 games is less than 5%.

I really, really, want Doedee to buck the trend.

You're guessing. There have been 3 factors mentioned, I bet you can't name 10 players who meet all 3.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Vader]

You're guessing. There have been 3 factors mentioned, I bet you can't name 10 players who meet all 3.

How about you go and find a list of 1st round draftees who played 100 games, after not debuting in their first 2 seasons? It's a very short list.

 

[Vader]

Some clubs take draftees off the back of great final U18 seasons .....sometimes these players have just had great final years, that can't be replicated or improved upon at AFL level

The Crows have recently taken a big picture view (some other clubs do too) .....of looking at the players attributes that i've outlined & try and predict a development curve

So which is better for drafting

The great final U18 year player ( Watts, Schacke) .....or the attributes player with a good development projection (Sloane, Knight ...)

That's all well & good, but most of a player's development still happens in their first couple of years on the list. If they haven't developed enough to earn a debut game in that time, they generally don't go on to succeed further down the line. That holds true, regardless of player type/role, stage of initial development (i.e. project players) or injuries.

You can make all the excuses you like, or reasons why Doedee will be different, but the facts are very simple. Very, very, few players who were drafted in the 1st round, and failed to debut in their first 2 years, have gone on to have successful AFL careers. There's no escaping this - it's a historical fact.

If Doedee plays 100 AFL games, he will be just as big a statistical anomaly as someone who plays 400+ AFL games, or someone who is still playing AFL at the age of 40.