Prediction 2017 Ladder (Bumped - two rounds to go)

[Vdubs]

i dont like the thought of geelong meeting sydney in the finals, but i think their form is being oversold a bit lately... theyre winning a lot, and i guess thats all that matters, but they were two herculean (and one borderline impossible) comebacks against richmond and essendon from being totally cooked. i guess the fact they achieved those comebacks perhaps counters my point somewhat, though.

Agree with you.
Sobering that though are the close shaves both Geelong and GWS have had this year resulting in wins.
We either ignore the minutiae of all teams' wins and just focus on ladder spots or be purists and rate more highly those teams that had more impressive (no close shave) wins.
% has always been a good determinant of potency and likely GF teams- Dogs 16 exception to that rule- and that means an all SA GF?

 

[CatRiot]

Have a funny feeling Swans will sneak in the top 4... What an epic run from 0-6.

 

[Landgraft]

Agree with you.
Sobering that though are the close shaves both Geelong and GWS have had this year resulting in wins.
We either ignore the minutiae of all teams' wins and just focus on ladder spots or be purists and rate more highly those teams that had more impressive (no close shave) wins.
% has always been a good determinant of potency and likely GF teams- Dogs 16 exception to that rule- and that means an all SA GF?

I dunno about that. Being up by 60 in the 4th isn't normally a test of character, but if a team can consistently win close games then it speaks to character and intent.

It can't just be luck that North, Richmond and Essendon struggle with close finishes or that teams like Geelong or GWS are able to deliver more often than not. A win is still indicative of quality, especially when it leans on the ability to execute skills or game plan under pressure.

 

[Vdubs]

I dunno about that. Being up by 60 in the 4th isn't normally a test of character, but if a team can consistently win close games then it speaks to character and intent.

It can't just be luck that North, Richmond and Essendon struggle with close finishes or that teams like Geelong or GWS are able to deliver more often than not. A win is still indicative of quality, especially when it leans on the ability to execute skills or game plan under pressure.

Good points.
Still a little diluted for me though that 2 of our close wins recently were because our opposition failed to kick the winning goal against us, ie we did not stop them being in a winning position. Thanks to Isaac.
But as I keep recalling, Danger was in a great position a minute before to seal their fate.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Agree with you.
Sobering that though are the close shaves both Geelong and GWS have had this year resulting in wins.
We either ignore the minutiae of all teams' wins and just focus on ladder spots or be purists and rate more highly those teams that had more impressive (no close shave) wins.
% has always been a good determinant of potency and likely GF teams- Dogs 16 exception to that rule- and that means an all SA GF?

Adelaides midfield is ordinary i cant see them winning finals particularly interstate.

We have the pieces to win this flag but we need to put it together.

 

[Landgraft]

Good points.
Still a little diluted for me though that 2 of our close wins recently were because our opposition failed to kick the winning goal against us, ie we did not stop them being in a winning position. Thanks to Isaac.
But as I keep recalling, Danger was in a great position a minute before to seal their fate.

Yup, we were lucky to be up against teams that weren't good enough in the extreme pressure. And Tomahawk mousing his shot vs GWS stings like anything.

Theres a lot of improvement needed, no doubt. But I look around and it seems everybody has problems. So maybe we'll be okay.

 

[Landgraft]

Adelaides midfield is ordinary i cant see them winning finals particularly interstate.

We have the pieces to win this flag but we need to put it together.

I've been deathriding them all year but I think they're in for an end of year slump out of the top 4. They're just such an average side in so many ways...

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I've been deathriding them all year but I think they're in for an end of year slump out of the top 4. They're just such an average side in so many ways...

They will make top 4 because of their ladder position but they will either go out in straight sets or get easily beaten in a PF/GF at the MCG.

 

[Landgraft]

They will make top 4 because of their ladder position but they will either go out in straight sets or get easily beaten in a PF/GF at the MCG.

Their last 6 are us (AO), Pies (MCG), Port (AO), Dons (Etihad), Swans (AO), Weagles (Domain).

If they win most of those then they're better than I think. Imo if they're as vulnerable as I think they win 2 of those and finish 5th. But we shall see.

 

[catempire]

 

[catempire]

If all bookies favourites win the remaining matches (Geel d Coll, GWS d Geel):



Same results if Geelong wins both:



Same again but if Geelong wins neither:



If the Doggies knock off Port this week then we can afford to drop one and we still finish 4th.

 

[Scottland2007]

If all bookies favourites win the remaining matches (Geel d Coll, GWS d Geel):

View attachment 403335

Same results if Geelong wins both:

View attachment 403336

Same again but if Geelong wins neither:

View attachment 403337

If the Doggies knock off Port this week then we can afford to drop one and we still finish 4th.

So, if we finish 5th, we'd have a bye, then Essendon, then Richmond after they lose to GWS? I don't want to lose the next two but could be a pretty good first two finals. Both at the mcg. Alternatively if we finish fourth and lose to Adelaide, do we then have to play Sydney if they beat Melbourne? Straight sets?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So, if we finish 5th, we'd have a bye, then Essendon, then Richmond after they lose to GWS? I don't want to lose the next two but could be a pretty good first two finals. Both at the mcg.

Anything that isn't sydney anywhere or adelaide in adelaide is a good finals draw for us.

 

[Scottland2007]

Anything that isn't sydney anywhere or adelaide in adelaide is a good finals draw for us.

Fourth could be a disaster. Where do we need Sydney to finish to avoid them if we lose to Adelaide in week 1?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Fourth could be a disaster. Where do we need Sydney to finish to avoid them if we lose to Adelaide in week 1?

We would then play winner of 5th vs 8th. Which means we want port to win both their games and finish 5th so sydney are 6th as one of those two will beat 8th easily (wce/ess/bulldogs). I much rather port at the MCG than Sydney.

 

[Scottland2007]

Anything that isn't sydney anywhere or adelaide in adelaide is a good finals draw for us.

Hey, off topic. Do you know where the Geelong punting page has gone? It was stickied to the top of bigfooty cats. It's how I navigate my way to the tipping.

 

[Scottland2007]

We would then play winner of 5th vs 8th. Which means we want port to win both their games and finish 5th so sydney are 6th as one of those two will beat 8th easily (wce/ess/bulldogs). I much rather port at the MCG than Sydney.

Totally agree. I don't want a repeat of last year!

 

[Ashb23]

Loser of 1v4 plays winner of 5v8. Basically second week is supposed to be 4v5 and 3v6 assuming all the higher ranked teams win. So actually finishing 2 or 3 could be our poison chalice (unless we win that first final)

 

[Vdubs]

Let's go back to CS.
He said, prophetically, "It's not who you play but WHEN.""
Week 1 finals, all teams post bye- we will be one of the teams to benefit most from that bye, and we should win- any team, anywhere.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Let's go back to CS.
He said, prophetically, "It's not who you play but WHEN.""
Week 1 finals, all teams post bye- we will be one of the teams to benefit most from that bye, and we should win- any team, anywhere.

And then you remember Geelong's post-bye record and wake up.

 

[Vdubs]

And then you remember Geelong's post-bye record and wake up.

We beat Hawthorn in our most recent post- bye finals, and I am relieved.
Besides, we actually need that bye this year.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

We beat Hawthorn in our most recent post- bye finals, and I am relieved.
Besides, we actually need that bye this year.

The game where Geelong was almost overrun and won because Smith missed a shot after the siren? Not so convincing.

 

[Munich]

Are we allowed a true home final this year?

Obviously we won't be playing any Vicco clubs at KP.

 

[Scottland2007]

Are we allowed a true home final this year?

Obviously we won't be playing any Vicco clubs at KP.

I wouldn't mind playing all our finals at the mcg if we can. Get used to playing the ground.

 

[Munich]

I wouldn't mind playing all our finals at the mcg if we can. Get used to playing the ground.

Yes, but do we get the choice is what I want to know.