Prediction 2017 Trade rumour accuracy thread.

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crowsup said:
Carlton supporters must be nuts if they think Adelaide will offer the same picks this year that they did last year, for Gibbs.
It would be a one year later and one less year worth of play to us. So why would they pay anywhere near what was offered last year?
It's OK for Malifice to say it is a pick in the late teens! It is still our first pick! We gave up Vince (who, imho) is on par with Gibbs, for pick 23, just to get in the second round, and he thinks we shouldn't regard our first pick very highly. FMD.
If the AFC offers more than our first pick for Gibbs, I will do what I would have never thought I would. That is, send a very stern e-mail to the club with a chance of adding my membership to it!
The same deal will apply if they give up McGovern for anything less than a first round pick. I'd rather they lose him for nothing to the pre season draft. What people should ask themselves is,:- if McGovern showed as much talent as he has as a 18yo, what pick would you have given to get him?
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???

He's 22 going on 23 so I'm not seeing the relevance? Born October 11 1994, think he's been shaving for quite a while..
 

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Malifice said:
My gut tells me the opposite is the case, but maybe I'm wrong.

Reckon the club would like nothing better than pick him up for a 1st and change (same deal as last year) and say 'we were right'.

Of course then I'll have to put up with Adelaide posters suddenly changing tune and Bryce morphing from a 'B grade plodder barely worth a pick in the 30's' to being suddenly 'magicaly de-Carltoned' and 'an A grade midfield weapon, and the perfect complement to Sloane'.

It happens all the time.



I cant think of the last side to win a flag without gun Mids (barring the Bulldogs last year). Youve been found out a couple of times by shutting down Sloane. Then again, its just too weird a year for me to accurately predict anything other than (and I know this is the wrong place for it) I reckon Port are flying under the radar a lot this year and are more than a sneaky chance to win it.

In fact, Im predicting a Port/ Adelaide GF.

And the city of Adelaide to be torched and BF servers to melt down shortly after the match finishes, either way.
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I don't want Gibbs personally if we have to pay a first round pick for him.

He'll be 29 next season and has never been AA so, if we do get him, I won't be suddenly pretending he's the next Brownlow medalist-in-waiting.
 
marty36 said:
If their was an 18 year old he would only be draft age. That's ridiculous as he wouldn't even be playing afl so he couldn't even show that anyway


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Maybe I stated the question wrongly. Would it be clearer if I said:- If you knew that Mitch would be as good as he is now, What pick would you have used for him when he was 18? It is not at what pick was a player taken that decides a player's present value. It's almost like saying that nobody should pay a top 10 pick for Sloane because he was taken with pick 44. Or that we should now pay pick 1 or equivalent for a Gibbs because he was taken with pick 1 10 years ago!
I get the impression that some of you guys here undervalue our top players and overvalue our mediocre players.
 
Jeffcrowe said:
I can say with certainty that the club rates Mitch extremely highly and I'm happy to lay it on the line that it's more than what they rate Gibbs

He will get a very handsome contract if he decides to stay , probably as much if not more than Tex

That's what I know
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Doesn't seem like cap space is a factor then in resigning McGovern. Just a question of whether or not he wants to stay.
 
crowsup said:
Maybe I stated the question wrongly. Would it be clearer if I said:- If you knew that Mitch would be as good as he is now, What pick would you have used for him when he was 18? It is not at what pick was a player taken that decides a player's present value. It's almost like saying that nobody should pay a top 10 pick for Sloane because he was taken with pick 44. Or that we should now pay pick 1 or equivalent for a Gibbs because he was taken with pick 1 10 years ago!
I get the impression that some of you guys here undervalue our top players and overvalue our mediocre players.
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Our top players are Sloane , betts walker talia laird maybe Jacobs because he is so important

Then we go down the list to next best and so on

Most would value that 6 most


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Elite Crow said:
What rubbish. We would easily give a pick in the 20s for Gibbs which hopefully might even be our first.
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And I reckon that's what we'll offer.
We won't offer quite what was offered last year, but it won't be peanuts as some folks are suggesting.

Don't know if Carlton will be happy with that or not. I doubt we'd give up our 1st pick (late teens?), but if we can maneuver a second pick in that range we'd offer that.

You'd think we would get 2 to 3 solid years out of Gibbs. Might be lucky and get 4-5. Given that we're contenders right now, we'd be mad not to go for it. Won't pay overs, won't pay unders. Just have to hope Carlton see it the same way.
 
mistylake said:
So ya recon the second pick in his draft year that's actually turned out to be a good player is only worth a speculative top ten pick.
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He is worth what other teams are willing to pay for him. When was the last time someone was traded for 2 first round picks? Would obviously be additional picks with the 1st rounder and a player involved. In the last few years Prestia, Danger, Beams, Dixon, Ryder have all gone for only 1 first round pick plus additional picks or players.
 
crowsup said:
Maybe I stated the question wrongly. Would it be clearer if I said:- If you knew that Mitch would be as good as he is now, What pick would you have used for him when he was 18? It is not at what pick was a player taken that decides a player's present value. It's almost like saying that nobody should pay a top 10 pick for Sloane because he was taken with pick 44. Or that we should now pay pick 1 or equivalent for a Gibbs because he was taken with pick 1 10 years ago!
I get the impression that some of you guys here undervalue our top players and overvalue our mediocre players.
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Mitch McGovern is not a "top" player currently, he's "potentially" a top player still and to seriously suggest he's anything other than that is overrating his output up to now. I certainly don't want to lose Mitch but should he choose to leave the reality is to get a 1st round pick for him would be an extremely good result and unless he plays more like the "finished" product on his return I think we'll struggle to do that. To suggest we should send him to the pre-season draft instead of getting a likely second round pick or work it into another deal to get a proven player or a deal to get us higher in the draft would just be plain dumb and something I don't think too many clubs would even contemplate anymore.
 
Crows I Am said:
He is worth what other teams are willing to pay for him. When was the last time someone was traded for 2 first round picks? Would obviously be additional picks with the 1st rounder and a player involved. In the last few years Prestia, Danger, Beams, Dixon, Ryder have all gone for only 1 first round pick plus additional picks or players.
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All of those guys are mid 20s, not 29. He's a first rd pick 4 years ago, but now, maybe our 1st and 2nd for gibbs and their 2nd
 

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Bicks said:
Mitch McGovern is not a "top" player currently, he's "potentially" a top player still and to seriously suggest he's anything other than that is overrating his output up to now. I certainly don't want to lose Mitch but should he choose to leave the reality is to get a 1st round pick for him would be an extremely good result and unless he plays more like the "finished" product on his return I think we'll struggle to do that. To suggest we should send him to the pre-season draft instead of getting a likely second round pick or work it into another deal to get a proven player or a deal to get us higher in the draft would just be plain dumb and something I don't think too many clubs would even contemplate anymore.
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I wouldn't want to argue with you regarding anything about the AFL. Because, I think that compared to you, I know next to nothing about it.
The only question I would like to pose is this:- Why would you pay a first round pick for an 18yo that ha potential but has not yet played against mature bodies, and not for Mitch that has shown as much, if not more, talent in the AFL? Is it because he's 2-3 years older than the draftee? Or do you believe he has not shown as much talent as an Himmelberg (the GWS one, that is)? As an example.
 
crowsup said:
I wouldn't want to argue with you regarding anything about the AFL. Because, I think that compared to you, I know next to nothing about it.
The only question I would like to pose is this:- Why would you pay a first round pick for an 18yo that ha potential but has not yet played against mature bodies, and not for Mitch that has shown as much, if not more, talent in the AFL? Is it because he's 2-3 years older than the draftee? Or do you believe he has not shown as much talent as an Himmelberg (the GWS one, that is)? As an example.
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It's 4 or 5 years actually, he was an "over ager" when we drafted him. And it's really down to 1. Uncontracted and 2. Wanting to go home, it really has little to do with the potential we see in McGovern, it's the reality of the position we will be in should he wish to exit. All together different scenario if he was contracted. If he leaves a 1st round pick would be an extremely good result IMO.....Do I want to retain his services...Yes absolutely.
 
Bicks said:
It's 4 or 5 years actually, he was an "over ager" when we drafted him. And it's really down to 1. Uncontracted and 2. Wanting to go home, it really has little to do with the potential we see in McGovern, it's the reality of the position we will be in should he wish to exit. All together different scenario if he was contracted. If he leaves a 1st round pick would be an extremely good result IMO.....Do I want to retain his services...Yes absolutely.
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Thanks for the response. I see he'll be 23 soon. Just the same, He's still young enough and he shows lots of promise. As far as " we get what we can because he's not contracted", I personally believe we have been too weak in negotiations before and we should try to be a bit tougher in the future. That is one reason why I have backed the club with the way they have behaves re- Gibbs' deal. Not only because I think Gibbs wasn't worth 2 first picks but because they thought the same and did not cave in to the bullying.
 
Crows I Am said:
He is worth what other teams are willing to pay for him. When was the last time someone was traded for 2 first round picks? Would obviously be additional picks with the 1st rounder and a player involved. In the last few years Prestia, Danger, Beams, Dixon, Ryder have all gone for only 1 first round pick plus additional picks or players.
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We'll probably depends on what pick it is and if you look at the points system it's a fair indication that pick 1 is rated way higher than 18.
Pretty sure two first rounders has happened recently but I don't have the time to work that s**t out. O'meara may be one maybe Treloar.
We got done over on that Dangerfield trade by the way.
 
adelaidecrows said:
Probably got word that one or both Kelly and Martin have turned down their mega offers.
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I can see a dude316 gif or fotoshop of Pittard holding one of those big cheques with Kelly and Martin crossed out as well as the 1 in the $1.6million :D
 
mistylake said:
We'll probably depends on what pick it is and if you look at the points system it's a fair indication that pick 1 is rated way higher than 18.
Pretty sure two first rounders has happened recently but I don't have the time to work that s**t out. O'meara may be one maybe Treloar.
We got done over on that Dangerfield trade by the way.
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Didn't Port give up 2 firsts for Ryder or Dixon?
 
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