Tas 2018 Tasmania Election - LIBERAL WIN

[Bomberboyokay]

https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/Info/Enrolment.html

All 25 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) will be up for grabs.

The Liberals have been in government since winning the 2014 election. Will Hodgman has been leading them since 2006 which seems like a long ******* time in today's politics. They currently have 15 seats.

Labor has been led by Rebecca White since 2017. They have 7 seats to defend.

Greens have been led by Cassy O'Connor since 2015 and they have 3 seats. She was in the Labor-Greens Cabinet of 2010-14 as Minister for various things.

Polls suggest there will be a big swing against the Liberals.

Vote Greens https://greens.org.au/tas

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Will Hodgman too chickenshit to debate Cassy O'Connor even though the business community think it a good idea.

Tasmania's Premier has been labelled a "fraidy cat" by the leader of the Greens after he refused to face her in a pre-election political debate.

Tasmania's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (TCCI) wanted to include Greens leader Cassy O'Connor in this year's scheduled event, but was told Premier Will Hodgman would not take part if she did.

The TCCI is standing firm and the debate has since been cancelled.

Ms O'Connor said it showed Mr Hodgman's "cowardice".

"I think Will Hodgman is a fraidy cat, he doesn't want to debate the Greens," she said.

"He knows if there was a strong Green voice on that stage it would expose his government's failings and he doesn't want Tasmanians to see that."

[...]

Opposition Leader Rebecca White said it was a confusing decision from Mr Hodgman.

"You'd think this would be his bread and butter, but he's afraid to debate The Greens and afraid to debate Labor," she said.

"I've said yes, I want to have the debate, it's unfortunate that the Premier doesn't want to."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-...-greens-in-tasmanian-political-debate/9327914

 

[aCunningPlan]

It's never a good look avoiding election debates. Just front up and sell your message, it's part of the job.

 

[nobbyiscool]

It's really foolish of Hodgman to refuse to debate O'Connor. Partly cos I think he'd towel her up, but mainly because the current reality in Tassie - in fact the reality of the last 10-15 years - is that Labor can't govern without the support of the Greens. The ALP lost too many left-wing voters during the forestry and pulp mill debates, and they lost them for good. It's going to take at least a generation for Labor to win them back. So despite their current lack of seats, the Greens have to be treated as a force, and in trying to maintain government Hodgman should be treating the Greens and Labor as equally dangerous to their government.

 

[madmug]

It's really foolish of Hodgman to refuse to debate O'Connor. Partly cos I think he'd towel her up, but mainly because the current reality in Tassie - in fact the reality of the last 10-15 years - is that Labor can't govern without the support of the Greens. The ALP lost too many left-wing voters during the forestry and pulp mill debates, and they lost them for good. It's going to take at least a generation for Labor to win them back. So despite their current lack of seats, the Greens have to be treated as a force, and in trying to maintain government Hodgman should be treating the Greens and Labor as equally dangerous to their government.

Hodgman doesnt want to give the Greens any credibility.

In his mind, a debate would signify the Greens as some sort of player & a political force.

Thats the strategy it would seem. For better or worse.

I dont think the decision would make any difference anyway. Such debates mean SFA at state level.

My guess is that we will probably end up with a minority Gumint. Neither side will get a majority. The Libs will have the most seats but maybe not enough. The Libs tactics are to dare the electorate to vote against them & suffer a minority Gumint or even the threat of another Labour/ Green alliance, even though Labour too have declined such a possibility.

 

[Father Jack]

Hodgman will be content to sit back and let Federal Group do all his talking for him. There's no losers with pokies!!

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Tassieboy]

I see it as being near impossible (at this early stage) for a Labor majority government.

45% Liberal Majority
50% Labor/Green/Lambie minority government
5% Labor majority.

Rebecca White running more left-wing politics will probably result in a reduced Green vote, and the Greens may lose a seat in Bass.

 

[Tassieboy]

If in the unlikely even Kent does win a seat - and the Liberals win 12 seats - is it possible he may just join the Liberals?

 

[nobbyiscool]

It kind of surprises me that the early polls - for whatever they're worth with such small sample sizes - are suggesting a hung parliament. I expected the Libs would start a little further ahead than that. It suggests to me that they probably can't win. With the exception of a couple of famous examples with Howard, government's don't typically pick up swathes of votes during the campaign.


Gosh that's strange. Kent a Lambi-ite? Surely he could've walked into a pretty plum spot with the Libs? He's possibly even well known enough that he could've won a spot as an independent.

 

[Tassieboy]

Hodgman doesnt want to give the Greens any credibility.

In his mind, a debate would signify the Greens as some sort of player & a political force.

Thats the strategy it would seem. For better or worse.

I dont think the decision would make any difference anyway. Such debates mean SFA at state level.

My guess is that we will probably end up with a minority Gumint. Neither side will get a majority. The Libs will have the most seats but maybe not enough. The Libs tactics are to dare the electorate to vote against them & suffer a minority Gumint or even the threat of another Labour/ Green alliance, even though Labour too have declined such a possibility.

I agree that it's poor taste not to debate the Greens, but ultimately, apart from the 5% avid listeners of ABC local radio - who will likely vote Green or Labor anyway - no one really cares at state level.

Labor seem to have refused a Coalition, but I can't see them rejecting Green confidence. There could be another election, but it may result in the same cards.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Gosh that's strange. Kent a Lambi-ite? Surely he could've walked into a pretty plum spot with the Libs? He's possibly even well known enough that he could've won a spot as an independent.

Lambie ran for Liberal preselection for 2013. She's not a working class hero.

 

[Tassieboy]

It kind of surprises me that the early polls - for whatever they're worth with such small sample sizes - are suggesting a hung parliament. I expected the Libs would start a little further ahead than that. It suggests to me that they probably can't win. With the exception of a couple of famous examples with Howard, government's don't typically pick up swathes of votes during the campaign.

I suppose we will see. I think Tasmania's Hare-Clark system is a bit unique, though.

Theoretically, the Liberals were never going to win 3 seats again in Labor-dominated Franklin. They are also extremely unlikely to win 4 seats in Braddon. That leaves them with 13 seats, meaning they only need to lose one to go into minority territory.

Franklin is almost certainly going to be 2-2-1. If there's a massive swing on, Labor could win 3 seats in Denison, with the remaining two being split between the Greens and the Liberals. But even this is unlikely.

The Liberals need to hold 3 in Braddon. I think they may, despite it swinging to Labor federally. Lambie could be an issue taking that 3rd seat. Although I suppose JLN could take Labor's 2nd seat?

The Liberals also need to hold their 3 in Bass, despite losing it federally. The Liberals polled well at the last poll and I think Dawkins' low profile here may mean Labor pick up her seat. Vote exhaustion from Gutwein's quota may be an issue for the Libs.

The Liberals may find it more tricky to keep their 3rd seat in Lyons. JLNs Kent could throw a spanner in the works.

I suspect giving casinos a monopoly on Pokies will be of benefit in Denison and Franklin, but not garner any seats. Conversely, it could help the Liberals in Bass, Braddon and Lyons.

 

[Todman]

The only policy I know is the ALP close all the Pokies machines. Hodgson could exploit as an anti-business anti jobs policy.

If you close the pokies venues, sure the mug punters won't lost $110 million per year but then maybe they will use their phones and play that way instead.

 

[pazza]

Hodgman is like the old man. All about ME!!!!

 

[Badesumofu]

I know Bec personally (this isn't so surprising in Tassie, I'm a nobody) and think she'll make a fantastic premier.

Greg Farrell will pull out all the big guns at his disposal and already is. Of course he is a giant hypocrite who strenuously opposed the introduction of pokies in pubs and clubs in 1993 stating that it would destroy the fabric of Tasmania. In 1993 he held a monopoly on pokies and introducing them in pubs and clubs was a threat to that. Now he also holds a monopoly and pulling them out of pubs and clubs threatens the family's bottom line. The guy will literally say whatever most benefits him at the time he says it. Utter grub. Not to mention that he is currently trying to * his EA employees over while also trying to leverage them against Labor. A truly awful individual and I'd probably support anyone who opposes him, luckily Bec is deserving of my support independently of that.

 

[Father Jack]

Well the Tas Libs can't be short of cash considering the endless ads we've had since the start of the Ashes

 

[Father Jack]

The Libs are already threatening to go running to the police, because that worked so well for Malcolm and made him look measured and composed and not at all unhinged

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-...nt-police-to-investigate-union-emails/9373052

 

[Father Jack]

The pokies brigade are already at barrel-scraping levels, apparently if they aren't allowed to rip off pensioners there'll be no Anzac Day in Glenorchy ever again! I'm not sure if it's meant to be a prediction or a threat. Either way, and not surprisingly, the RSL state President has dismissed it as complete bullshit, but in friendlier, more state-presidential terms.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-...nzac-day-in-facebook-video-under-fire/9384460

 

[Badesumofu]

Somewhat interesting little tidbit:

In Franklin David O'Byrne has had to cover all his election signs at the request of the council because the election period doesn't officially start until Monday.

In Denison, no such request has been made by the Hobart City Council. Denison is, in some areas, almost carpeted with Liberal election signs for, among other candidates, Sue Hickey who also just so happens to be the Mayor of Hobart.

 

[sherb]

I know Bec personally (this isn't so surprising in Tassie, I'm a nobody) and think she'll make a fantastic premier.

Greg Farrell will pull out all the big guns at his disposal and already is. Of course he is a giant hypocrite who strenuously opposed the introduction of pokies in pubs and clubs in 1993 stating that it would destroy the fabric of Tasmania. In 1993 he held a monopoly on pokies and introducing them in pubs and clubs was a threat to that. Now he also holds a monopoly and pulling them out of pubs and clubs threatens the family's bottom line. The guy will literally say whatever most benefits him at the time he says it. Utter grub. Not to mention that he is currently trying to **** his EA employees over while also trying to leverage them against Labor. A truly awful individual and I'd probably support anyone who opposes him, luckily Bec is deserving of my support independently of that.

Article today in the SMH about the Farrells.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...manias-gambling-industry-20180202-h0slct.html

 

[madmug]

Article today in the SMH about the Farrells.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...manias-gambling-industry-20180202-h0slct.html

I would love this to be reprinted here. Its just a pity the local papers are so gutless.
I don't know if this issue will win or lose an election, but it might be the difference between majority & minority government.
No doubt Farrell & other pokie interests are backing the Libs. That too may backfire if Labour can pour enough dirt on the Farrell's greed, & counter the Libs silly jobs & 'choice' argument over this.
The social issues & economics are overwhelmingly in favour of getting pokies out of pubs.
Labour need to drive that point home.

 

[Father Jack]

I'm hoping the Federal astroturfing ad campaign will backfire, that people are smart enough to realise that pokies are nothing more than a bloodsucking cancer. There's a reason why the most profitable machines are in the poorest areas

 

[nobbyiscool]

I'm hoping the Federal astroturfing ad campaign will backfire, that people are smart enough to realise that pokies are nothing more than a bloodsucking cancer. There's a reason why the most profitable machines are in the poorest areas

The problem is that Tasmanians keep falling for these astroturfing campaigns

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I would love this to be reprinted here.

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