2018 US Midterm Elections - DEMOCRATS WIN HOUSE, REPUBLICANS RETAIN SENATE

[Mr_Moogle]

Results aren't far off what I was imagining. Dems did slightly better in the house races than I thought but this is tempered by the Republicans winning more senate seats than I predicted. I thought they'd win another 2, not 4. Still, I feel a little better knowing Dems have control of the house. Their result in the senate was pretty disastrous though. 2020 is definitely going to be better for Democrats in the senate but the Republicans have quite a buffer now.

 

[AmericanAFL]

Dems need someone who can unite all their internal factions, from the left to the centre. IMO Clinton failed with that big time and that caused apathy - which is what caused her to lose the election. Easier said than done obviously but they need to focus on 2020 right now to find this person.

You’re not wrong.

 

[FireKrakouer]

Given it was probably the largest financial event to hit the globe since the crash of 1929, you can see why I am sceptical that people don't believe of voter retaliation against who sits there regardless of party lines.

Yes, and said voter retaliation would have surely been reflected in approval polls?

The spin begins.

There are mixed results for both parties.

What a surprise that your instant, know-nothing take lacks balance.

Please cease and desist with the personal attacks. I've got feelings, you know?

I don't think it was a popularity contest.

According to all reports the economy is booming, unemployment record down, two key factors yet they lose the House convincingly?

In a fair contest (gerrymandering) it would be very interesting.

No I can't see why you are sceptical.

Good thing Nunes no longer chair of Intelligence Committee.

They lost the house "convincingly"? They are set to lose it by roughly half the average margin of a party that holds the whitehouse.

Muh Russia, muh gerrymandering. The anti-Trumpers just can't accept that he is more popular than they realise!

 

[Crankyhawk]

It’s a huge issue (obviously). Both sides are guilty of drawing ridiculous districts when they have the opportunity to do it, it’s just that in the last few decades the GOP has been so much better at putting themselves in position to be the ones drawing the maps, that things have gotten skewed quite a bit.

There have been some recent state Supreme Court rulings in Pennsylvania and North Carolina that have ordered maps to be redrawn. Ultimately, I expect the issue will find its way to the US Supreme Court.

Hopefully a more equitable system comes out of it.

Problem there is the GOP control the SC, and I saw an article (yes possibly fakenews) that the GOP are trying to push a measure to find independent electoral commissions drawing boundaries as unconstitutional

 

[smokingjacket]

The best comparison is 1994 imo. Clinton won 92 in a three way contest that caused a lot of resentment in Republicans that he’d won unfairly, and they turned in huge numbers to take the house. There were also a few scandals surrounding him, the pissweak Whitewater chief among them.

The economy was booming then too.

If the Democrats had won on a Gingrich-style platform I think the Republicans would be more worried, but this looks like anti-Trump resentment that could easily peter out.

US politics still lingers with Gingrich’s anti New Deal platform, that still hasn’t been scrubbed clear.

Yeah I know the circumstances you're talking about, and it's a good comparison.

The bits I saw, the candidates ran very localised campaigns. My understanding is the Democrats changed strategy from their centralised campaigns and encouraged localism with a national social media overlay. I didn't see many candidates campaigning as an anti-Trump voice or impeachment politics.

Revealing that the only places where anti-Trump messages were the top priority are northern California and Washington.

 

[The Warlord]

What is wrong with those places?

Lol, you made a stupid call about Chicago, now you're going to play even stupider.

Chicago has a huge issue with gun crime in some parte. But overall, ite one of the richest and most advanced cities on human history.

 

[AmericanAFL]

Muh Russia, muh gerrymandering. The anti-Trumpers just can't accept that he is more popular than they realise!

He’s not more popular than we realize.

He’s able to rouse his base and get them to the polls.

There is a difference. And in a country with poor voter turnout, that’s an effective edge that he has.

 

[Major Colvin]

It’s a huge issue (obviously). Both sides are guilty of drawing ridiculous districts when they have the opportunity to do it, it’s just that in the last few decades the GOP has been so much better at putting themselves in position to be the ones drawing the maps, that things have gotten skewed quite a bit.

There have been some recent state Supreme Court rulings in Pennsylvania and North Carolina that have ordered maps to be redrawn. Ultimately, I expect the issue will find its way to the US Supreme Court.

Hopefully a more equitable system comes out of it.

Considering the composition of the Supreme Court now, that seems doubtful.

 

[its free real estate]

Yeah I know the circumstances you're talking about, and it's a good comparison.

The bits I saw, the candidates ran very localised campaigns. My understanding is the Democrats changed strategy from their centralised campaigns and encouraged localism with a national social media overlay. I didn't see many candidates campaigning as an anti-Trump voice or impeachment politics.

Revealing that the only places where anti-Trump messages were the top priority are northern California and Washington.

I don’t think they had to be explicitly anti-Trump to leverage anti-Trump resentment.

Fascinating though that healthcare has dominated three of the midterm elections of the past 25 years, 1994, 2010 and 2018.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Chicago has a huge issue with gun crime in some parte. But overall, ite one of the richest and most advanced cities on human history

So is Mumbai, therefore, Mumbai must be amazing.

 

[Taylor]

Those supreme court judges will be kept on life support, weekend at burnie's style for two years now.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Please cease and desist with the personal attacks. I've got feelings, you know?

What's personal about it?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

He’s not more popular than we realize.

He’s able to rouse his base and get them to the polls.

There is a difference. And in a country with poor voter turnout, that’s an effective edge that he has.

Effective demagoguery?

 

[SilentHunter_]

How is the US not at war?

 

[AmericanAFL]

Effective demagoguery?

Unfortunately.

 

[drd23]

Can you explain please why the us system thinks governors are the appropriate means to draw district boundaries rather than an impartial body (such as in Australia). It seems not smart.

It goes all the way back to how the country was formed (it truly was a union of states and lacked any real strong, centralised government), views regarding "states' rights" and an ingrained mistrust of the government that means that the creation of an independent, centralised body (such as the AEC we have here) typically receives a lot of push back.

That said, there were 4 ballot initiatives to ensure less partisan drawing of electoral maps this year so the mood is changing

Ultimately, I expect the issue will find its way to the US Supreme Court.

There were two cases in front of the SCOTUS regarding gerrymandering in the last year but they didn't rule on the merits of either case

 

[drd23]

Chicago has a huge issue with gun crime in some parte. But overall, ite one of the richest and most advanced cities on human history.

And yet the state of Illinois is basically bankrupt

 

[Cooldude]

How is the US not at war?

Nothing really to hit, they tried with North Korea for a while but then Kim Jong Un played them. Iran was the obvious target but you gotta get rid of that nuclear deal first, which they have done, so probably invading them any time now

 

[The Warlord]

So is Mumbai, therefore, Mumbai must be amazing.

Mumbai is not in the same league as Chicago.

 

[Financialpanther]

Yes, and said voter retaliation would have surely been reflected in approval polls?
!

If Obama was elected in 08, how many of those seats that flipped were filled with incumbents that were elected in 06 (pre gfc) or before?

 

[The Warlord]

How is the US not at war?

It is.

 

[Maggie5]

Yes, and said voter retaliation would have surely been reflected in approval polls?

Please cease and desist with the personal attacks. I've got feelings, you know?

They lost the house "convincingly"? They are set to lose it by roughly half the average margin of a party that holds the whitehouse.

Muh Russia, muh gerrymandering. The anti-Trumpers just can't accept that he is more popular than they realise!

You better hope he keeps it going for the next two years if you are so confident. The margins are closer.

Will be interesting how his 'repeal and replace' will look like especially when he was going to do it immediately, not sure the electorate will be that happy next time around if it hasn't happened. Was the most important issue.

 

[The Warlord]

And yet the state of Illinois is basically bankrupt

A situation I imagine they could easily remedy

 

[SilentHunter_]

Nothing really to hit, they tried with North Korea for a while but then Kim Jong Un played them. Iran was the obvious target but you gotta get rid of that nuclear deal first, which they have done, so probably invading them any time now

America is at war though. Even if you leave out Norf Korea.

It is.

Yeah I know but the guy that did that tweet said that American isn't at war.