Analysis 2020 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[Heeney2Franklin]

Thanks for sharing Ticky.

Teams around the comp will be having sleepless nights as they face... the exact same midfield trio from this year’s 15th-placed side.

Was always going to take more than one draft to rejuvenate our midfield i think we let it slide to much also not to sure about Kirk midfield setups.

 

[The King!]

Who is Cornes buying, holding and selling in 2020?

Buy, hold, sell - Cornes' AFL stock market.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Keyter]

Hope you don't mind if I put in my two cents.

I agree with the general feel that you need to rejuvenate your midfield. If Heeney body could stand up to it I suggest him playing as a full time mid would help but I am not sure he would be risked. He is a match winner in the middle and it would be good to see him get plenty of time there to add some class. With that said he is also very dangerous up forward so it could be best just to leave the balance as they have it already. Blakey as his body develops has to get more midfield time. In the juniors he was capable of taking over games through the middle and if Horse does what he has done with Mills and confine him to his own end he will be doing the prospects of the team a disservice.

Mills trained all last preseason with the mids and his move into the middle was trumpeted throughout that period only for it to not eventuate. Sure there were injuries but really they could have given him some time there especially toward the end of the year when the season was gone. He was a dominant midfielder as a junior and I cannot understand why you would not give him an extended run in there as senior level. Sure he is a very good backman and the Swans need him there but mids are the ones who win games and I would rob the backs to pay the mids every day of the week.

One mid who has not got a mention in the last few pages (i.e. the ones I read) is Bell. I watched him in the reserves and his class stood out above all your other mids at that level. He has good athleticism, nice size and is a very capable ball winner. Most importantly when he gets the ball good things happen and that is definitely something that is lacking in most of the Swans up and coming mids. I would be finding game time for him and seeing if he can bring his reserves form to the AFL.

Hopefully you don't make the mistake of puting Lewis Taylor in the middle of the ground. He is not a ball winner and runs in circles and burns the ball too much. Put him on a forward flank and and he can do a job.

Moving a bit backward I think losing Jones could end up being a bit of a blessing. He played mostly behind the ball but he was in an important linking role that I think could have been done better. His lack of skill really hurt at times. He was the kind of player who was too good to be in the reserves but one who can really hurt you when he inevitably makes a mistake. Freeing up that spot can allow you to blood a younger player.

On another thread I mentioned I had seen a fair bit of O'Riordan last year and think he is one who could help you take a jump forward. He is an excellent read of the play, a very nice mark of the ball and his skills are very good. If Horse gave him some freedom behind the ball I think your rebound would be helped a lot and he can give your mids more space to work in with quick transitions.

Up forward I will be keeping a close eye on E Taylor this year. Risk of him amounting to nothing is high but his ceiling is very high. Could be anything if he gets it together. I think he will need to do his time in the reserves though.

Good observations.
Look for Mccartin to take some big steps forward this year.
Best thing about 20 is no one on the outside is expecting much from the Swans, so throwing things around a bit more is the way to go.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Who is Cornes buying, holding and selling in 2020?

Buy, hold, sell - Cornes' AFL stock market.

www.sen.com.au

Firesale!

 

[Quigley]

Good observations.
Look for Mccartin to take some big steps forward this year.
Best thing about 20 is no one on the outside is expecting much from the Swans, so throwing things around a bit more is the way to go.

McCartin took some big steps forward last year. He surprised me and looked much better than his brother. Not many would have thought that a few years ago.

 

[DobmusEdge]

Mitchell won their best & fairest the year they let him go, so Kennedy’s form is irrelevant.

Regardless of whether they did it because of rebuilding or clearing cap space, they gained a Brownlow Medalist, and a 20 year old who is already a club champion. They have clearly benefitted from making that call. I’m not even saying to make that drastic a call as to trade JPK or force him out the door. Just reduce his importance to the side. Not only would it create greater opportunities for the youngsters, but I think it would actually help JPK prolong his career if he’s not being one of the main men/battering rams every week.

They haven’t won a final since ...not that impressive

 

[caesar88]

They haven’t won a final since ...not that impressive

My point was that those two players who directly benefitted from Mitchell and Lewis’ absence have since had better individual seasons than any of our youngsters have had. Now the rest of their “rebuild” I have major doubts about but they’ve undoubtedly got their midfield for the next half a decade already sorted. Can we honestly say the same about ours? No, because we don’t yet know if guys like Hewett, Florent, Heeney etc can lead our midfield because they haven’t been given that opportunity. They look bloody promising for sure but until we see them in that role we’re going forward somewhat blindly.

 

[bungee]

Probably because he’s always being asked to do tagging or at least run-with roles. His best game this year came when Kennedy wasn’t in the side down in Tassie and he was in a pure ball-winning role. Funny that...

Why are Parker & Kennedy given free reign to win the ball at will but the younger, fitter of the three is not?

It's incorrect to assume that Hewett is fitter than JPK or Parker simply because he's younger. A peak endurance age is generally reached from about 28-29 yrs onwards. Soft tissue injuries and/or accumulation of injuries tends to be the limit on a footballer's playing age. If they can move freely they can stay fit enough through their thirties.

JPK is still our dominant mid and one of top inside midfielders in the game. His stats dropped off slightly through 2017/18 when he assumed the solo captain role but picked up a bit in 2019. With the loss of Mitchell and (effectively) Hanners after 2016 JPK was also a lot easier to target by opposition teams. Barring a career ending injury JPK should be a significant player in our next finals thrust. His on and off field leadership alone boosts our team's fortunes.

As for Hewett, he's not the first midfielder who learned the ropes following a gun mid from the opposition team. Think Jack or Mitchell. His role as a tagger has effectively shut down any number of top end mids. He's one of the best in the business. As we bring more young mids through it won't be a surprise if he plays a more offensive role and someone new learns the ropes.

A good tagger is worth his weight in gold. Hewett's role is to play the best possible part in our team's victory that he can, not to rack up possessions while his opponent does the same. He'd tell you that himself. His best games are where he gets more possies than a quality opposition. His tagging/run-with roles are what has made Hewett into an up and coming talent.

As for when to move younger players into the midfield, there's still a basic requirement to build the skills, the tank and the strength for it. Just because someone played midfield as a junior doesn't mean they have the skills, stamina or strength to handle the midfield in senior AFL. That's why players often start their career in the forward line or defense. That experience can also bolster their skills in those areas since mids these days are expected to cover all areas of the ground. Even then they may then be assigned a run with role to learn from the best.

 

[bungee]

Who is Cornes buying, holding and selling in 2020?

Buy, hold, sell - Cornes' AFL stock market.

www.sen.com.au

Hmmm...Cornes. 'Nuff said

 

[bungee]

Without over-simplifiying things and stating the obvious! ... our clearances & contested possessions (team rankings overall) have been on a steady decline since 2016. Our ranking in these areas has roughly coincided with ladder position. I believe this is the area that is hurting us the most, and also impacting on inside 50's. Can't expect to kick winning scores averaging 47 inside 50's, despite our good conversion rate.

Would like to see what we can do differently (personnel and game strategy) to reverse this trend (which should also improve as our young midfielders gain more experience, a better than average ruckman would help - can't expect Naismith to produce miracles). Losing Mitchell and Hannebery has really hurt us and you can't replace these guys overnight. Kennedy's output has also been on steady decline. With the team now out of premiership window and in 'development phase' surely we (coaching panel) need to be bolder in trying something different in the midfield mix.

I'm resigned to the Mills midfield thing not happening (more valuable in defense!??) seems a real waste given his contested abilities. Would like to see Florent and Rowbottom given more on-ball midfield time (not sure where that leaves JPK as he is mainly a one position player). Heeney and Blakey as inside forward/midfield pinch-hitters (possibly Heeney more permanent - is really composed in traffic despite butchering kicks occasionally) as these two have game breaking ability and x-factor. Blakey more so when he bulks up, but no harm seeing what he can do now. He showed in under national 18's he could influence a game as an inside mid-fielder.

It was to be expected. At the end of 2016 we lost two of our top four mids in Hanners (injured) and Mitchell ($$$$). Most opposition teams can curtail the output of two top mids but would struggle with four. At the same time we've had a ruck implosion that meant we rarely had first use of the ball, yet to his credit JPK still ranks as a clearance specialist.

We need ruck power, we need Hewett to continue his growth, we need to develop at least one more top mid and another to cover when JPK eventually retires. We have an efficient forward line and a defence solid enough to see us playing finals again. Getting our midfield set up right is crucial to how we go over the next 2-8 years or so. Both Mitchell and Hanners had the development time to grow into a strong midfield. The current crop have been thrown in the deep end but Florent showed plenty at the tail end of last year, at least one of Mills/Blakey/Heeney should join the mids and other like Rowbum & Stephens are longer term options. Dawson's another option but perhaps better suited to a defensive/wing.

The ruck question may be answered by the Naismith/Sinclair combo but I'd hope we can bring another up just in case.

Could be worse. We could have got Daniher and lost Papley.

 

[bungee]

Not sure I agree we'd be squandering an opportunity, he's shown he can play all over the ground and I reckon he was most effective on the wing last season. But I do agree good ball users in the back half are invaluable. I like the suggestion above of a half back/wing role. If Gould bolts into the 22, I'd be very happy having him alongside Dawson plus Ramps' booming left boot. If Blakey does spend more time on a wing this year, having him as an attacking wingman and Dawson as defensive at times would be a sight for sore eyes

This seems sound if we have the marking targets for the next link. The inclusion of Naismith and return of Sinclair helps our spine. For a while Reid was the only consistent marking target out of defence which made us somewhat predictable. Reid's a nice field kick too and generally clever about it. If Buddy builds the tank to play up the field I would probably cream at the sight of Dawson at the SCG hitting up Buddy on a 60m pass who turns and goes bang from long range. No midfield required.

 

[caesar88]

It's incorrect to assume that Hewett is fitter than JPK or Parker simply because he's younger. A peak endurance age is generally reached from about 28-29 yrs onwards. Soft tissue injuries and/or accumulation of injuries tends to be the limit on a footballer's playing age. If they can move freely they can stay fit enough through their thirties.

JPK is still our dominant mid and one of top inside midfielders in the game. His stats dropped off slightly through 2017/18 when he assumed the solo captain role but picked up a bit in 2019. With the loss of Mitchell and (effectively) Hanners after 2016 JPK was also a lot easier to target by opposition teams. Barring a career ending injury JPK should be a significant player in our next finals thrust. His on and off field leadership alone boosts our team's fortunes.

As for Hewett, he's not the first midfielder who learned the ropes following a gun mid from the opposition team. Think Jack or Mitchell. His role as a tagger has effectively shut down any number of top end mids. He's one of the best in the business. As we bring more young mids through it won't be a surprise if he plays a more offensive role and someone new learns the ropes.

A good tagger is worth his weight in gold. Hewett's role is to play the best possible part in our team's victory that he can, not to rack up possessions while his opponent does the same. He'd tell you that himself. His best games are where he gets more possies than a quality opposition. His tagging/run-with roles are what has made Hewett into an up and coming talent.

As for when to move younger players into the midfield, there's still a basic requirement to build the skills, the tank and the strength for it. Just because someone played midfield as a junior doesn't mean they have the skills, stamina or strength to handle the midfield in senior AFL. That's why players often start their career in the forward line or defense. That experience can also bolster their skills in those areas since mids these days are expected to cover all areas of the ground. Even then they may then be assigned a run with role to learn from the best.

No disrespect intended here bungee but I disagree with quite a few of your points here.

- I am not as optimistic on JPK as you are. IMO he has already gradually dipped in his performance each year since 2017 when he was robbed of an AA (what’s new). That’s acceptable and actually expected when a player hits 30. It’s not unrealistic to expect his performance to continue to decline. Does that mean he should be put out to pasture? No. But we are a few years away from contending for a flag, and so if JPK is going to still be around then, it will be as a minor statesman of the club, similar to Jude in 2012. So if we as a rebuilding team are supposed to be putting the pieces in place for that next flag tilt, I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe we should start preparing for JPK to play that minor role now.

- Never said JPK wasn’t our dominant mid. My concern is that he is still our dominant mid. Who is our next superstar mid who can dominate games and lead from the front at centre bounces? Is it Heeney? Don’t know because he only spends 50% of time in there. Is it Florent? Don’t know as the last month of 2019 was the only time he’s seen any centre circle action. Is it Dawson or Mills? Don’t know because they’re off being versatile which is a MUST now days. Is it Rowbottom or Blakey? Don’t know because apparently the idea of a teenager in there is madness! (Even though Worpel just won a club champion award as one). Is it Hewett? Don’t know because he can’t be trusted with that role yet, only tagging roles.

- Taggers can be important but it’s incredibly frustrating when you have a young mid who already bid his time in the NEAFL (two years!), then a whole year as a half forward in the seniors, to still be being held back from the role he is capable of. We saw him go head to head against two of the very best in Lachie Neale and Ben Cunnington in pure ball-winning roles and come out on top in both cases. In both cases, the next week he was back to doing shut down roles. This also raises the question of the other youngsters learning in a tagging role as well. Why the heck would I want Florent or Blakey or Rowbottom learning through tagging when there’s a very good chance they’ll never graduate from those apprenticeships? I’ll pass thanks!

- Which brings me to your last point about players learning in other roles. I was all for that at first, but it’s becoming very obvious that Horse’s “apprenticeships” don’t have graduations. All these players we keep being told are part of our midfield’s future aren’t actually part of it at all. Hewett was drafted in 2013 - six years later is not a ball-winner first and foremost. Heeney was drafted in 2014 - five years later he’s still split 50/50 between midfield and forward. Mills and Dawson were drafted in 2015 - four years later they’re both largely in defence. I get it, maybe a few of them have turned out to be better suited to other positions, but those “apprenticeships”, combined with Hewett & Dawson’s lengthy NEAFL stints, speak to a larger concern which is that I think Horse doesn’t trust his young midfielders enough. Or maybe he has too much faith in his two leaders. Or maybe it’s both.

We’re a rebuilding side and I can see the changes he’s implemented to our back line, and it’s blatantly obvious with our forward line too. But we’re getting left behind with our midfield because he is reluctant to pull the trigger on rebuilding that part of our team. GWS know Taranto & Hopper will be leading their future midfield. Hawthorn know Worpel will be leading theirs. Bulldogs know Bontempelli & Dunkley will be leading theirs. Carlton know Cripps will be leading theirs. But we don’t know who will be leading ours. I rate our youngsters collectively big-time but look at the season any of them had compared to the seasons any of the names I just mentioned had (all of whom are in a similar age bracket btw) and they pale in comparison by some margin, because they’re still supporting players to us, which makes even less sense to us as a rebuilding team than it would if we were a finalist like GWS or the Bulldogs!

And FWIW, I only said Hewett was fitter than Parker & Kennedy because I’m pretty sure he is based on what I saw. JPK had a few injuries this year, while Parker also played a lot with strapping on his leg and it was noted quite a few times on this board throughout the year that he looked to be playing slightly hindered.

 

[Punts]

Zac foot imo will push for senior footy and make an impact imo

Mccartin will will go far and beyond Reid

Reid can be his decoy

 

[Punts]

I also think Gould will play and wicks

they need/want forward pressure

 

[Ticky009]

I also think Gould will play and wicks

they want forward pressure

That I can understand, ball got waltzed out of our forward 50 like a well dressed debutant. Was frustrating to watch

 

[TheMase]

they want forward pressure

They sure do and I’ve been saying it for a while. One of our biggest issues with our “lack of inside 50s” isn’t getting the ball in there, it is holding it there and creating repeat entries with pressure causing turnovers in our front half.

On the flip side our opposition on a lot of occasions has managed to do this to us, creating an inside 50 discrepancy (we have at least been able to make these opposition return inside 50s largely inefficient).

 

[brad cooper]

I also think Gould will play and wicks

they need/want forward pressure

I reckon lloyd moves back to the wing to fit Gould in, Dawson can be our main man coming out of defence, a much better kick especially under pressure.

 

[The King!]

No disrespect intended here bungee but I disagree with quite a few of your points here.

- I am not as optimistic on JPK as you are. IMO he has already gradually dipped in his performance each year since 2017 when he was robbed of an AA (what’s new). That’s acceptable and actually expected when a player hits 30. It’s not unrealistic to expect his performance to continue to decline. Does that mean he should be put out to pasture? No. But we are a few years away from contending for a flag, and so if JPK is going to still be around then, it will be as a minor statesman of the club, similar to Jude in 2012. So if we as a rebuilding team are supposed to be putting the pieces in place for that next flag tilt, I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe we should start preparing for JPK to play that minor role now.

- Never said JPK wasn’t our dominant mid. My concern is that he is still our dominant mid. Who is our next superstar mid who can dominate games and lead from the front at centre bounces? Is it Heeney? Don’t know because he only spends 50% of time in there. Is it Florent? Don’t know as the last month of 2019 was the only time he’s seen any centre circle action. Is it Dawson or Mills? Don’t know because they’re off being versatile which is a MUST now days. Is it Rowbottom or Blakey? Don’t know because apparently the idea of a teenager in there is madness! (Even though Worpel just won a club champion award as one). Is it Hewett? Don’t know because he can’t be trusted with that role yet, only tagging roles.

- Taggers can be important but it’s incredibly frustrating when you have a young mid who already bid his time in the NEAFL (two years!), then a whole year as a half forward in the seniors, to still be being held back from the role he is capable of. We saw him go head to head against two of the very best in Lachie Neale and Ben Cunnington in pure ball-winning roles and come out on top in both cases. In both cases, the next week he was back to doing shut down roles. This also raises the question of the other youngsters learning in a tagging role as well. Why the heck would I want Florent or Blakey or Rowbottom learning through tagging when there’s a very good chance they’ll never graduate from those apprenticeships? I’ll pass thanks!

- Which brings me to your last point about players learning in other roles. I was all for that at first, but it’s becoming very obvious that Horse’s “apprenticeships” don’t have graduations. All these players we keep being told are part of our midfield’s future aren’t actually part of it at all. Hewett was drafted in 2013 - six years later is not a ball-winner first and foremost. Heeney was drafted in 2014 - five years later he’s still split 50/50 between midfield and forward. Mills and Dawson were drafted in 2015 - four years later they’re both largely in defence. I get it, maybe a few of them have turned out to be better suited to other positions, but those “apprenticeships”, combined with Hewett & Dawson’s lengthy NEAFL stints, speak to a larger concern which is that I think Horse doesn’t trust his young midfielders enough. Or maybe he has too much faith in his two leaders. Or maybe it’s both.

We’re a rebuilding side and I can see the changes he’s implemented to our back line, and it’s blatantly obvious with our forward line too. But we’re getting left behind with our midfield because he is reluctant to pull the trigger on rebuilding that part of our team. GWS know Taranto & Hopper will be leading their future midfield. Hawthorn know Worpel will be leading theirs. Bulldogs know Bontempelli & Dunkley will be leading theirs. Carlton know Cripps will be leading theirs. But we don’t know who will be leading ours. I rate our youngsters collectively big-time but look at the season any of them had compared to the seasons any of the names I just mentioned had (all of whom are in a similar age bracket btw) and they pale in comparison by some margin, because they’re still supporting players to us, which makes even less sense to us as a rebuilding team than it would if we were a finalist like GWS or the Bulldogs!

And FWIW, I only said Hewett was fitter than Parker & Kennedy because I’m pretty sure he is based on what I saw. JPK had a few injuries this year, while Parker also played a lot with strapping on his leg and it was noted quite a few times on this board throughout the year that he looked to be playing slightly hindered.

We all love JPK, but lets be honest, ignore the stats he was a shadow of himself quite often last year, wouldnt shock me if this is his last year

 

[Kummerspeck]

. More believing that out of hope than confidence though...

Which is weird given it was a centre-of-the field, run and carry style last year.

Again, can anyone, anyone criticising the game plan describe it with something other than scatter gun negative adjectives?

 

[caesar88]

Zac foot imo will push for senior footy and make an impact imo

Mccartin will will go far and beyond Reid

Reid can be his decoy

Reid can be Zac Foot's decoy.

 

[caesar88]

Which is weird given it was a centre-of-the field, run and carry style last year.

Again, can anyone, anyone criticising the game plan describe it with something other than scatter gun negative adjectives?

Can anyone, anyone (not sure what your double use of the word was supposed to achieve, so I'm gonna assume it's just a Chandler Bing-esque mannerism?) criticise the game plan without being called negative?

I agree that he implemented a run and carry style last year. I posted quite a lot in the trade period about how we did not need a HBF as our transition from defence to attack was, miraculously, a real strength for us in 2019. We were the best team in the comp in this area three quarters of the way through the season I remember reading somewhere. This probably came from a mixture of pace (Jones, Florent etc) and good decision-makers (Blakey, Dawson) But I also noticed he would revert to his defensive mentality at the first sign of his new style being challenged. I get it that it's a safety net for him that's served him well over the years, but that was with a different list in a different era. I am not saying he won't adapt and become more confident of his new game style and new personnel. But we also can't say he will. We just don't know yet. So how is it negative to say I hope that he changes?

 

[caesar88]

We all love JPK, but lets be honest, ignore the stats he was a shadow of himself quite often last year, wouldnt shock me if this is his last year

Possibly. He's definitely still one of our better players but he doesn't strike me as the type who will reinvent himself in another position. Only way I can see him getting a few more years out of himself is if he's in a background role like Jude was in his final years. Still capable of vintage moments but good for 20 or so touches instead of his usual 30 and his usual toughness in a supporting role to the youngsters.

If he's doing any more than that, you have to ask questions about our rebuild. If he's doing less than that, you have to wonder why he's in the team.

 

[Kummerspeck]

Can anyone, anyone (not sure what your double use of the word was supposed to achieve, so I'm gonna assume it's just a Chandler Bing-esque mannerism?) criticise the game plan without being called negative?

Isn't a prequisite for criticising something knowing about it? As I said, I'm yet to see a criticism of the game plan that doesn't hinge on a few adjectives. Even when pushed now your analysis went from hoping that he'd implement a new style to agreeing there were new changes that were working over the course of the season.

Further to this, the patches where the game did slow down, it's no more true to say that it was Longmire using a safety net than it would be to say it was used because a lot of our prime movers (our whole team, in fact) was young and couldn't maintain the fast movement for a whole game.

I should say this isn't directly at you, it just does my head in reading the whole "defensive game plan" line over and over again when it's objectively false.

 

[caesar88]

Isn't a prequisite for criticising something knowing about it? As I said, I'm yet to see a criticism of the game plan that doesn't hinge on a few adjectives. Even when pushed now your analysis went from hoping that he'd implement a new style to agreeing there were new changes that were working over the course of the season.

Further to this, the patches where the game did slow down, it's no more true to say that it was Longmire using a safety net than it would be to say it was used because a lot of our prime movers (our whole team, in fact) was young and couldn't maintain the fast movement for a whole game.

I should say this isn't directly at you, it just does my head in reading the whole "defensive game plan" line over and over again when it's objectively false.

As I said, you can go back through time if you really need convincing that I have acknowledged Horse's attempts at change. I just believe he doesn't stick to it enough, which I've also said before. I just gave you a whole paragraph where I said pretty rationally what I think are some of the pros and cons of the game plan, a lot more than "a few adjectives". If you aren't happy with that criticism, maybe it's because you just don't like it or agree with it. And you disliking or disagreeing with someone's opinion shouldn't do your head in. Lighten up, it's only footy.

 

[SGBeach]

The draft over the last few years is a good indication of where The Swans game plan is headed.. Speed, Skill, Attack
Florent, Ling, Stoddart, McInerney, Foot, Blakey, Stephens are all very quick half back flankers - wing - half forwards. Add to that Wicks, Bell, Reynolds, Rowles.
Rowbottom (who like Stephens and Florent can play inside/outside and is relatively quick) and Warner are the contested ball winners
Dawson, Blakey, Gould are all excellent and attacking kicks - From half back to half forward.
Then there's E Taylor, a highly skilled mercurial forward
The game plan is evolving as the young crew develops. Having the ability to play defensively or stop the oppositions momentum is always going to be important, and especially important with a young team, but it seems pretty clear Horse is implementing and the Swans are evolving a more attacking game plan.