AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[tim_saints]

View attachment 1371044

One of these isn’t like the others.

McGovern is leading atm

 

[superfraser]

No but you can lay them at betfair

Usually have to wait til closer to the count though and there are no guarantees

Can you give me the basics?

As an example, I'm on Rowell at $101, and he's come into $21. I'm not being offered a cashout option. Is there a way that I can turn this into a profit at betfair or elsewhere?

 

[ash_1050]

Can you give me the basics?

As an example, I'm on Rowell at $101, and he's come into $21. I'm not being offered a cashout option. Is there a way that I can turn this into a profit at betfair or elsewhere?

Unfortunately you can't lay him off instantly at the moment, as Rowell is 42/990 on Betfair.

You could try lay him off at odds 43, but that seems kind of pointless if you initially backed him at 101. Better off holding and trying to lay him off at the 21 or lower rate.

FWIW I backed a few different possibilities but given we're only 4 rounds in won't be looking to lay them off until mid season. Some have drifted in (Petracca, Miller) while some have drifted out (Hopper, Bolton). It's a case of trying to maximise the cashout point for each player, and mid season all the way through to R22 of the count are viable options to do so.

 

[superfraser]

Unfortunately you can't lay him off instantly at the moment, as Rowell is 42/990 on Betfair.

You could try lay him off at odds 43, but that seems kind of pointless if you initially backed him at 101. Better off holding and trying to lay him off at the 21 or lower rate.

FWIW I backed a few different possibilities but given we're only 4 rounds in won't be looking to lay them off until mid season. Some have drifted in (Petracca, Miller) while some have drifted out (Hopper, Bolton). It's a case of trying to maximise the cashout point for each player, and mid season all the way through to R22 of the count are viable options to do so.

Brilliant, that's exactly what I need. But I still don't understand how I do it.

Perhaps a better example is Andy Brayshaw. I'm on him at $101, and he's now into $18. Let's say he came down in to $10, how do I go about processing this to cash out? It seems a more complex way of than the "cash out" button, I assume I'll need to create an account with BetFair and do some other things (??) to capitalize from another agency.

 

[Jugada]

Brilliant, that's exactly what I need. But I still don't understand how I do it.

Perhaps a better example is Andy Brayshaw. I'm on him at $101, and he's now into $18. Let's say he came down in to $10, how do I go about processing this to cash out? It seems a more complex way of than the "cash out" button, I assume I'll need to create an account with BetFair and do some other things (??) to capitalize from another agency.

You will need the funds to cover your potential loss if you are laying on Betfair so not sure how feasible that will end up being.

For instance if you had $100 on Brayshaw @ $101 with a potential payout of $10,100 and you now wanted to lay him at Betfair at his current lay price there of $26 then to cover a $200 bet from whoever is backing him at that price on Betfair you will need $5,200 in your Betfair account to cover the liability on that bet.

So essentially to lock in a $100 profit on that bet you would need to put over $5,000 in your Betfair account until the Brownlow market has been resulted which I'm guessing is not worth it.

 

[superfraser]

You will need the funds to cover your potential loss if you are laying on Betfair so not sure how feasible that will end up being.

For instance if you had $100 on Brayshaw @ $101 with a potential payout of $10,100 and you now wanted to lay him at Betfair at his current lay price there of $26 then to cover a $200 bet from whoever is backing him at that price on Betfair you will need $5,200 in your Betfair account to cover the liability on that bet.

So essentially to lock in a $100 profit on that bet you would need to put over $5,000 in your Betfair account until the Brownlow market has been resulted which I'm guessing is not worth it.

Thank you!

I did do more reading last night and found the same issue.

I could put in a bit of cash to cover liabilities for short periods of time, late in the season it may become more worthwhile.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Last week Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

was listed as 3-7 weeks out. Now he's 1-2 miraculously. Say dogs beat kangs easy, kangs prob won't poll anyway and he will only be a 3 voter off the pace. Won't need many.
He's 34s on pbet and 26s on tab where U can multi. Odds will be closer to 6s if he's named next week or one after.
Terrific spec bet at odds imo

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Last week Tarryn Thomas was listed as 3-7 weeks out. Now he's 1-2 miraculously. Say dogs beat kangs easy, kangs prob won't poll anyway and he will only be a 3 voter off the pace. Won't need many.
He's 34s on pbet and 26s on tab where U can multi. Odds will be closer to 6s if he's named next week or one after.
Terrific spec bet at odds imo

How has he voted previously? Simpkin would already be on a few votes.

Waiting to here if Cunnington comes back at all.

 

[Sausage Legs]

How has he voted previously? Simpkin would already be on a few votes.

Waiting to here if Cunnington comes back at all.

Googled it for ya.
Thomas 2nd last year with 5.
Simpkin polled 1.
Yes Simpkin may be 2 votes or so ahead at the moment, but he's 2.50. Thomas is 34s. As soon as Thomas is named his odds will come in to single figures before he even runs thru the banner.
Forget Cunners.

 

[IDIG]

Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

@101 worth a look? Probably hasn’t got many votes so far but might snag a couple today with his 42 plus whatever he gets in the last 10 mins.

Edit into 51 jeez

 

[Tigers04]

Bailey Smith @101 worth a look? Probably hasn’t got many votes so far but might snag a couple today with his 42 plus whatever he gets in the last 10 mins.

Edit into 51 jeez

Certainly worth a go but plenty of dogs players to take votes off him.

 

[IDIG]

Certainly worth a go but plenty of dogs players to take votes off him.

That’s what I was thinking but Bont plonked fwd helps. Small sample size I know but his heatmap and CBA right down today (see below) so may be a glimpse of what’s to come.

I know stats mean very little but so far he’s had 33,31,36,43. If he keeps that up could be as good of a $101 shot that we’ve had in recent times (what was Wines hmm)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Perfect result for early Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

speculators. Play cats next week so could be another 0 votes for Kangas but as soon as he's named he should be same price as LDU, Greenwood etc at 6ish

 

[pendlebury_10]

Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

presents a decent cash out option, currently $101 at most books. Likely polls 5 votes in the past two games.
I can see him drawing the usual pre count hype and starting $10 - $20 on the night.

 

[Tigers04]

Max Gawn presents a decent cash out option, currently $101 at most books. Likely polls 5 votes in the past two games.
I can see him drawing the usual pre count hype and starting $10 - $20 on the night.

$151 at ladbrokes

 

[invisible_]

My leaderboard after round 5. Surely the top 5/10/20 markets are due to be out soon?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

My leaderboard after round 5. Surely the top 5/10/20 markets are due to be out soon?
View attachment 1378092

Pretty similar to what I've got:

A. Brayshaw	10
C. Petracca	9
L. Neale	8
P. Cripps	8
B. Smith	7

 

[botswana42]

my count so far:

 

[Johanpetro]

Brayshaw 11
Cripps 9
Petracca 9
Neale 8
Smith 7

For me after round 5

 

[superfraser]

Anyone willing to post their raw data regularly? I'm collating data from a range of sources that I can get access to via the internet.

Pretty consistent having Brayshaw, Neale, Petracca and Cripps among the top handful.

Keays can be really up and down, Mills and Heeney similar.

From a value betting point of view, I think the teams still present great options regularly, St Kilda and Gold Coast, in particular, are great if you don't have Steele & Miller.
Gresham and Anderson are my picks, not ahead of Steele and Miller, but as the value choices.

 

[invisible_]

my count so far: View attachment 1378370

Haven't found many votes for Travis Boak, Jack Steele or Tom Mitchell? Where do you have them polling/missing out?

 

[EFL Boy]

9 - Neale
8.5 - Brayshaw, Cripps, Petracca
6.5 - Heeney
6 - Keays
5.5 - De Goey, Gawn, Mills, Oliver, Steele
5 - Parker

 

[SirBont]

Top 5 For Me

Petracca 9
Brayshaw 9
Cripps 7
J McGovern 7
L Neale 7

 

[Sausage Legs]

Top 5 For Me

Petracca 9
Brayshaw 9
Cripps 7
J McGovern 7
L Neale 7

Spewin Gov missed with covid last week or he'd be winning it

 

[Tigers04]

If dom sheed is back soon he’s a chance for most votes at eagles, currently $15