List Mgmt. 2023 List Management thread

[Snuffaluphagus]

Mod notice after Mr Bob did a lot of annoying work in moving days of posts out of here. As we are heading into offseason, this thread is for 2023 list management only. Getting upset on previous trades can be taken to the vent thread. Lets keep this thread on track in the part of the year it's actually relevant

 

[freo_leo29]

What’s happening with Wade Derksen?

5th in goals in the VFL

can't crack the GWS team still

 

[Dockeroo]

Pick 21 isn’t a sh** selection. It just isn’t. People act like all non-top 10 picks play zero games.

We’re much more likely to get a player that plays 100+ games than one that plays less than 10.

David Mundy and Nat Fyfe both started their careers as second round draft picks. They are arguably two of the three best players we’ve ever had - IMO anyone who argues they aren’t top 6 is a moron.

I agree but I like to look at the average pick instead of the outliers in bay range lie this.
The chances of picking up another Nat Fyfe with pick 21 are once in a generation. Very very low percentage chance of happening. The reality is that we are much more likely to get a Darcy Tucker/Nathan O’Driscoll/Connor Blakely level player with that pick. Let’s hope we luck out and get someone at the upper end of that scale, have good faith in Walls to get it right more often than not.

 

[Madas]

Pick 21 isn’t a sh** selection. It just isn’t. People act like all non-top 10 picks play zero games.

We’re much more likely to get a player that plays 100+ games than one that plays less than 10.

David Mundy and Nat Fyfe both started their careers as second round draft picks. They are arguably two of the three best players we’ve ever had - IMO anyone who argues they aren’t top 6 is a moron.

Yep
Takes a bit of the pain away this trade period .
Lobbs best contribution to the club was when he walked out the door .

 

[MadMac]

All this talk about picks sliding down due to academy and F/S picks, I don’t see how that changes anything. You’re still picking from the same pool of available players as top quality academy and F/S bids will be matched. Realistically speaking, any club bidding on any of those “reserved” players have very low chance of getting said player so they’re back to square one. If anything, all other clubs benefit from that further down the line since the club matching the bid has to use later picks for value. Am I missing something here?

Compo picks are obviously different story.

 

[sumavich]

Tholstrop is the man. He’ll be around our first pick

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

All this talk about picks sliding down due to academy and F/S picks, I don’t see how that changes anything. You’re still picking from the same pool of available players as top quality academy and F/S bids will be matched. Realistically speaking, any club bidding on any of those “reserved” players have very low chance of getting said player so they’re back to square one. If anything, all other clubs benefit from that further down the line since the club matching the bid has to use later picks for value. Am I missing something here?

Compo picks are obviously different story.

Yes but history says that the lower in the order you go, the less likely the pick is successful and you can think of it as not every draft is strong as each other. Like there’s only so much talent each year and if more and more talent is unavailable then the talent is diluted.

On the night it’s irrelevant because you know what is and isn’t available but I think when trading for a pick and planning it’s worth you have to take it into account

 

[Taylor]

Some of the academy players are available before pick 40 so extra picks in before then might mean players get swooped on before matches can be done

 

[Docker82]

Tholstrop is the man. He’ll be around our first pick

And probably our second pick too…

 

[Polo342]

If Mitch Edwards is still there at our first would we take him? Not gonna be a need but yeah thats a slide.

 

[Taylor]

If Mitch Edwards is still there at our first would we take him? Not gonna be a need but yeah thats a slide.

Maybe but I doubt it, the real interesting one is if he is still on the table at pick #41 ... does it change our strategy if we think he will slip to a free bid match

 

[Polo342]

Maybe but I doubt it, the real interesting one is if he is still on the table at pick #41 ... does it change our strategy if we think he will slip to a free bid match

Awkward one if he is in that 20-40 range. Would suck to not take him at 21 if he is there and he turns into a gun.

 

[Docker82]

Problem is, this year pick 21 will be more like pick 26 after 5x academy and FS picks, so we’ve drifted from Fyfe, Mundy, MJ territory into NOD, Motlop territory, don’t get me wrong, would love a Collard type at 26 but chances definitely diminish.

There’s every chance the player selected at pick 26 is better than pick 21.

Let’s remember that 19 players were selected ahead of Nat Fyfe. Outside of Dusty, Fyfe now makes players that were seen as better than him at the time look average, in some cases very average.

 

[wakojako]

I'd rather not spend the last home game of the year watching Colyer and Wilson play over Worner/Stanley.

C'mon man Wilo is a heart and soul player who bleeds purple. He definitely deserves a send off.

 

[JammoMonty]

There’s every chance the player selected at pick 26 is better than pick 21.

Let’s remember that 19 players were selected ahead of Nat Fyfe. Outside of Dusty, Fyfe now makes players that were seen as better than him at the time look average, in some cases very average.

And to think Mark Harvey wanted Ryan Bastinac

 

[Dirty_banchez]

We should try trading our future 2nd round pick.

 

[Purple Suit]

We should try trading our future 2nd round pick.

This is the year we’ll get value as we should improve on 15th in 2024, even if we won the same amount of games.

 

[Joao]

This is the year we’ll get value as we should improve on 15th in 2024, even if we won the same amount of games.

Highly unlikely you get value trading a future anything. Any list manager with half a brain is going to factor in the potential for a ladder rise/fall of a team and we'd be easily one of the more volatile to predict.

 

[Taylor]

I think future third and fourth round picks are universally considered to be pick #50 and pick #70 respectively.

2nds should be considered bottom half and top half of the round, I would expect us to be top half, which is pick #35 and the likes of North/WC bottom half so that's pick #25

First round broken down even more, top five, top ten, ten to fifteen, fifteen plus. Some clubs future firsts would be like early seconds but for the value of them being "first round picks" for the purpose of future pick trading.

 

[Purple Suit]

Highly unlikely you get value trading a future anything. Any list manager with half a brain is going to factor in the potential for a ladder rise/fall of a team and we'd be easily one of the more volatile to predict.

Depends where we finish in 2024 and what we do with it. At the trade table, clubs will say we’re finishing in the 8 next year no doubt & discount for futures. But, if they really need to push currency into next year, we still might be a better bet outside the bottom 3.

 

[Joao]

Depends where we finish in 2024 and what we do with it. At the trade table, clubs will say we’re finishing in the 8 next year no doubt & discount for futures. But, if they really need to push currency into next year, we still might be a better bet outside the bottom 3.

Maybe, but I reckon if you look back over future trades, the vast majority of them will fall in the favour of the team receiving futures (at least purely numerically).

 

[MadMac]

Some of the academy players are available before pick 40 so extra picks in before then might mean players get swooped on before matches can be done

I was talking about higher quality prospects as they’re the ines that affect the final order of draft picks adter all is finished. Lower quality/speculative prospects don’t influence anything.
But in reality nothing really changes other than the number in front of the player. Example, Carlton bidding for Henry vs Carlton not bidding for Henry, they still ended up with the same player at 9 instead of going straight for him at 8. The only party inconvenienced by this were us. All other clubs picking after Carlton had exactly same players still on offer.
Edit: The fact that someone’s pick 9 turned into 10 hardly made any difference

 

[Taylor]

I was talking about higher quality prospects as they’re the ines that affect the final order of draft picks adter all is finished. Lower quality/speculative prospects don’t influence anything.
But in reality nothing really changes other than the number in front of the player. Example, Carlton bidding for Henry vs Carlton not bidding for Henry, they still ended up with the same player at 9 instead of going straight for him at 8. The only party inconvenienced by this were us. All other clubs picking after Carlton had exactly same players still on offer.
Edit: The fact that someone’s pick 9 turned into 10 hardly made any difference

I got your point and I agree with it, but the question is why should someone like Liam Henry or Jamara Ugle Hagan be available with priority access to a club in the first place?

I think you can make the case that northern academies add talent to the draft that they then take out, but I don't think the NGA talent pathways in Victoria especially are adding anything to the draft other than adding priority access to certain clubs.

 

[MadMac]

I got your point and I agree with it, but the question is why should someone like Liam Henry or Jamara Ugle Hagan be available with priority access to a club in the first place?

I think you can make the case that northern academies add talent to the draft that they then take out, but I don't think the NGA talent pathways in Victoria especially are adding anything to the draft other than adding priority access to certain clubs.

Well, that’s a different topic and personally I agree with the sentiment. I’d scrap the whole academy system altogether and throw everyone in the mix equally. But AFL seems to like this system unfortunately

 

[UYD 4 Life]

If Henry wants to go to Victoria maybe we try to swing it to pay Gresham enough to get the Saints first round pick compo and then trade Henry to them for said pick?

Bundle up that and Norths pick to get into the top end of the draft

 

[Purple Suit]

Maybe, but I reckon if you look back over future trades, the vast majority of them will fall in the favour of the team receiving futures (at least purely numerically).

I agree with that. I'd still trade our 1st for a pick in the top 12 this year if it came up on draft night and we have a target in mind or our 2nd for a pick at 30. No point going early on it though.

I would love to go into a trade period with a full set of picks for once. I don't think we've done that since trading future picks came in.