Preview AFL 2nd Qualifying Final - Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 7:50PM Friday 5 September

[Footy Smarts]

I have a feeling they are going to rotate the three of them through the forward line with McIntosh getting a fair bit of a forward run tonight and let Walker/Blicavs do the majority of up the ground work.

McIntosh has natural forward tendancies, can mark, can lead and would really stretch them from a height perspective.

I fully expect this to happen ... it is why they went with Walker over Brown. McIntosh is the key here and wha they want to do with him (and why Dawson would have played if he was available).

I feel for Brown - did everything right last week, but Walker's inclusion is very specific to what the Cats want to do and how they want to go about it.

The selection suggests to me it could well be a one off and Brown might get a recall for the next final.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

After seeing his improved ruck work (against seriously good opposition in Martin and Leuenberger) in the Brisbane game, I'm sure he'll contest a few centre bounces. But really, I don't want to see him in there for more than about 10 minutes if both of our rucks stay on the park, or more than 20 minutes if McIntosh is subbed out. CHF is where we need him.

 

[Tackle_happy]

The selection suggests to me it could well be a one off and Brown might get a recall for the next final.

Agree - horses for courses in that respect. Both Walker and Brown (and potentially Kersten) play based on who we are up against.

 

[Tackle_happy]

After seeing his improved ruck work (against seriously good opposition in Martin and Leuenberger) in the Brisbane game, I'm sure he'll contest a few centre bounces. But really, I don't want to see him in there for more than about 10 minutes if both of our rucks stay on the park, or more than 20 minutes if McIntosh is subbed out. CHF is where we need him.

Not necessarily. We need to be able to stretch their defence. Walker can do that in a sense, but McIntosh would do it better. He is a good contested mark (much better than Walker) and can kick goals. His game in round 5 showed that.

Walker has a big tank and will be able to run with the likes of Ceglar/Hale when they rush into their forward line. McIntosh can then use his better skills offensively.

 

[vinum coupe]

After seeing his improved ruck work (against seriously good opposition in Martin and Leuenberger) in the Brisbane game, I'm sure he'll contest a few centre bounces. But really, I don't want to see him in there for more than about 10 minutes if both of our rucks stay on the park, or more than 20 minutes if McIntosh is subbed out. CHF is where we need him.

I agree that he is looking better in the ruck.
I thought he was absolutely useless last year. He was so easily pushed out of the way at boundary throw ins it was embarrassing.

Seems to have done a lot of work on his positioning so that he can actually jump at the ball.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

But you can't take Mooney's response seriously? Caddy's important, but without Hawkinws and Selwood, we're toast.

Agree with this. The problem with these people in the media is that they feel like they can't just give the obvious answer (even if it is the correct one). So, they give an answer that people aren't expecting and the public treats them like they are some sort of oracle. Like the buzz that Burgoyne has been getting over the past week or so, with regards to being Hawthorn's best/most important player, now that Jordan Lewis has become a bit too obvious for the 'experts'. Burgoyne's a great player, no doubt and can be a match-winner, but Hawthorn's best/most important player? No.

Tom Hawkins is our most important player. He's probably the most important player to his team in the league. Without him in the side, I reckon we'd drop from being a 17-5 team, to being somewhere around the 10-12 wins mark. If he goes down, we are cooked. Now, people might be talking about 'most important' in terms of a bit of an up-and-down player who needs to have a massive game for us to win and that's fair enough. In that context, I would say the answer is Hamish McIntosh (and even Selwood, to an extent) for us and Brian Lake for Hawthorn. Other players for us that are in this category are Murdoch, Walker and GHS.

Mooney could have just brought Caddy up at a different stage and said that he's not generating enough buzz at the moment, that he is a vastly improved player and a potential game-breaker, but that wasn't the question he was asked. And because he wanted to give Caddy some love, he just chucked him in as the answer to that question and, since people weren't expecting him to give that answer, instead of saying 'that's ridiculous, Moons', most probably do a bit of research on what Caddy has been doing over the past few weeks and think 'Moons is right...I hadn't even thought about Caddy!' when he's actually not right. I'd be reluctant to say that Caddy is any more important than Christensen.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Agree with this. The problem with these people in the media is that they feel like they can't just give the obvious answer (even if it is the correct one). So, they give an answer that people aren't expecting and the public treats them like they are some sort of oracle. Like the buzz that Burgoyne has been getting over the past week or so, with regards to being Hawthorn's best/most important player, now that Jordan Lewis has become a bit too obvious for the 'experts'. Burgoyne's a great player, no doubt and can be a match-winner, but Hawthorn's best/most important player? No.

Burgoyne is so much more important than Lewis. When Burgoyne plays well he drags them over the line in big games (see Essendon this year, the Prelim last year and Sydney away in 2012).

Lewis can have huge games and yet they still get comfortably outplayed (see Fremantle or Port Adelaide away this year). Lewis also doesn't hurt you that much with his possessions. He's a stats whore whose numbers are more impressive than his impact. He also doesn't hit the scoreboard enough to be a really damaging mid. In 6 games against the other top 4 teams this year he's kicked a total of 1 goal. Take the game earlier this year against Fremantle in Melbourne for example. 37 touches sounds like a huge game yet there were 9 Hawks who had a higher supercoach score (not perfect by any means but a reasonable measure of impact and normally favours midfielders).

 

[kicksome]

im half confident tonight, not sure why i just got a weird feeling
on the other hand walker better f'kin do something this time around..

 

[Topper]

Feeling very relaxed about this game.

Our pace and quick ball movement will be the key to our win.

Cats by about 5 goals

 

[romeoh]

I don't him in any esteem. He's a footballer. They're marginally above lawyers to me.



That's fine, but how come he actually outperforms Walker pretty much everywhere at senior level? Do you have rational skepticism (a great thing) of Walker in a final based on last year's disaster? If not why not?

He doesn't outperform Walker in terms of grunt, work rate, determination, sticking a tackle, taking a reliable mark, and he is looking a bit more sure of himself etc-these are the qualities we need against the Hawks. Am okay with the choice.

 

[Cataholic]

I hear they're giving SJ up until 90 minutes before the game to prove his fitness.

What chance a late change, and who comes in if there is?

 

[Lana]

I hear they're giving SJ up until 90 minutes before the game to prove his fitness.

What chance a late change, and who comes in if there is?

hear from where?

 

[cynical]

Not necessarily. We need to be able to stretch their defence. Walker can do that in a sense, but McIntosh would do it better. He is a good contested mark (much better than Walker) and can kick goals. His game in round 5 showed that.

Walker has a big tank and will be able to run with the likes of Ceglar/Hale when they rush into their forward line. McIntosh can then use his better skills offensively.

We don't need to stretch their defence we just need to isolate Hawkins.

Having someone play CHF and get up the ground dragging a big defender is the best way to do it.

Would much rather Walker plays as the CHF and HMac occasionally drifts forward.

 

[Dawn2Dark]

Feeling very relaxed about this game.

Our pace and quick ball movement will be the key to our win.

Cats by about 5 goals

Ditto about feeling relaxed. Flat about Bundy though!

 

[mcwilrob]

I hear they're giving SJ up until 90 minutes before the game to prove his fitness.

What chance a late change, and who comes in if there is?

If true this is seriously worrying

 

[Stig_90]

I wish I could share some of your guys positivity. I just hope we can cause a close finish and remind them who's won all the really close ones between us in the last five years. Can't let the Hawks dominate a half like they did in Round 21 or even a quarter like they did in the 4th in the prelim last year.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Burgoyne is so much more important than Lewis. When Burgoyne plays well he drags them over the line in big games (see Essendon this year, the Prelim last year and Sydney away in 2012).

Lewis can have huge games and yet they still get comfortably outplayed (see Fremantle or Port Adelaide away this year). Lewis also doesn't hurt you that much with his possessions. He's a stats whore whose numbers are more impressive than his impact. He also doesn't hit the scoreboard enough to be a really damaging mid. In 6 games against the other top 4 teams this year he's kicked a total of 1 goal. Take the game earlier this year against Fremantle in Melbourne for example. 37 touches sounds like a huge game yet there were 9 Hawks who had a higher supercoach score (not perfect by any means but a reasonable measure of impact and normally favours midfielders).

Lewis is just an example. He would have been the answer before Burgoyne and before he was being talked up as a Brownlow smokey and a probable AA. However, I'd say Sam Mitchell has been a 'really damaging mid', especially against us, post-Ling and yet Lewis has kicked more goals in 2014 than Mitchell has ever managed in a season. And yes, there is more than a little bit of irony in downplaying statistics, but pointing to Supercoach scores. If we go by Supercoach scores, the top 10 players in the 2011 grand final, in order were:

Joel Selwood, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas, Steele Sidebottom, Leon Davis, Tom Hawkins, Heath Shaw, Ben Johnson, Travis Varcoe, Jimmy Bartel.

The thing that would make me think Lewis had a reasonable sort of game against Fremantle in Round 3 was that he took away the equal second most AFLCA votes from that game.

 

[mcwilrob]

I hear they're giving SJ up until 90 minutes before the game to prove his fitness.

What chance a late change, and who comes in if there is?

Also being talked about on Hawks board...

 

[Tackle_happy]

We don't need to stretch their defence we just need to isolate Hawkins.

Having someone play CHF and get up the ground dragging a big defender is the best way to do it.

Would much rather Walker plays as the CHF and HMac occasionally drifts forward.

That would be the case if we were to solely focus on isolating Hawkins.

But it is not.

It is about creating more opportunities in the forward line.

HMac will play in the centre a fair bit I would have thought - but he will get a fair percentage of game time forward (potentially centre bounces and push forward with Walker/Blicavs coming up the ground).

 

[jmac70]

Good luck tonight guys. Whilst many have written off the Cats I think you are a real chance tonight. Would love to see it! Congrats on another great year.

 

[00VicWard001]

I'm the opposite and hope he plays a fair bit in the ruck. The fact is last week he impressed as a ruckman drifting forwards at times, not as a genuine forward. If they're picking him on the basis of that form then it should be in the ruck.

Thinking it through it actually makes a fair bit of sense to play Walker as a ruckman/forward. If you look at our games against the Hawks recently we've dominated them with big marking forwards. In the first game this year McIntosh had a really good game playing forward a lot (3 contested marks up forward). Simpson played mainly in the ruck and Blicavs was free to play on a wing. Defensively our 2 key players were Blicavs and Varcoe who both got criticised for not getting the ball much but all the talk was about how we stopped their outside run which these 2 had a huge impact on. Blicavs was able to do this since he played mainly on the wing and not in the ruck (only 4 hitouts for the match).


Fast forward to 2 weeks ago and we dominated the first half. Varcoe had his best half for the year while McIntosh did the vast majority of the ruckwork with Blicavs playing on a wing. Once again their forward run was non-existent. In the second half we shifted Varcoe deeper into defence and Blicavs did much more of the ruckwork with McIntosh shifting forward after centre bounces. McIntosh wasn't able to have an impact up forward mainly because the ball wasn't up there and we got cut up on the outside because Blicavs and Varcoe were no longer defending the spread.

So against Hawthorn we really need Blicavs to play predominantly on the wing in a defensive role perhaps even running with Smith. But given their lack of size in defence we'd also love to be able to send McIntosh forward at times where we know we can worry them with big marking targets. Obviously the problem is you've got nobody to play ruck if you've got Blicavs on the wing and McIntosh in the forward line. So the answer is to bring in Walker and have him play as the second ruckman and switch with McIntosh so we can stretch their defence for height while not having to release Blicavs from his outside defensive duties.

I'm not sure that it's the right move but to me that's the only way playing Walker ahead of Brown makes sense. It's only the right move if you're playing him for his ability to ruck first and foremost so that McIntosh can be swung forward at times and Blicavs can be relieved of the need to ruck. It's also interesting to note that Scott has been talking up Walker's ruck work this week which suggests this is why they've chosen him rather than his forward work alone.

This post reinforces how appropriate your name is!!!

Great insight and makes a lot of sense. It's about imposing our game plan on them and then forcing them to make changes to their structure. I love it when I see Gunston and Roughead in our forward line. Commentators talk about how the Hawks change positions to create mismatches, but ultimately, they forget that if everything is going well, Clarko won't be changing anything. It's up to the cats to continue their momentum even when the Hawks start swinging changes.

 

[bulletproof]

Burgoyne is a superstar, there is not many more complete footballers around than him. One of the best September players in the league. He turned the game for them in the Prelim.

 

[fpm84]

Also being talked about on Hawks board...

A poster on the Hawks board said Balme on SEN this morning was noncommittal about SJ playing... but Balme's noncommittal about everything.

 

[goyoucatters]

Also being talked about on Hawks board...

Can't be surprised that they're talking about it, though.

Worried, much?

I think he'll be out there.

 

[catempire]

I hear they're giving SJ up until 90 minutes before the game to prove his fitness.

What chance a late change, and who comes in if there is?

I think someone has taken too literally a remark regarding lodging the teamsheet 90 minutes before the game. In that sense, everyone (not just SJ) has up until 90 minutes before the game to "prove" themselves.